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$1M Bitcoin ‘Sounds Crazy,’ but Bitwise CIO Says the Math Points Higher

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$1M Bitcoin 'Sounds Crazy,' but Bitwise CIO Says the Math Points Higher


Matt Hougan believes Bitcoin only needs 17% of a $121 trillion store-of-value market to reach a $1 million valuation.

Bitcoin could reach $1 million if it captures roughly 17% of a projected $121 trillion global store-of-value market, according to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management.

In a recent memo, he explained how long-term market expansion could support significantly higher prices for the digital asset.

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Math Behind The Target

Hougan said the idea initially appears unrealistic because a $1 million valuation would require Bitcoin to increase roughly 14 times from its current price, a target he himself once dismissed in 2018, when BTC was trading near $4,000.

However, after studying the asset’s role in financial markets, he said the common mistake in evaluating Bitcoin’s long-term potential is treating the store-of-value market as fixed rather than expanding. Hougan described Bitcoin as an emerging digital store-of-value asset that competes with gold by allowing investors to hold wealth outside traditional fiat currencies and banking systems, although he acknowledged that the cryptocurrency remains more volatile and less established than the metal.

According to the Bitwise exec, estimating BTC’s potential value involves calculating the total size of the global store-of-value market, estimating the portion Bitcoin could capture, and dividing that value by the asset’s maximum supply of 21 million units. Based on current figures, Hougan said the store-of-value market totals just under $38 trillion, including about $36 trillion in gold and roughly $1.4 trillion in Bitcoin. This implies that BTC currently represents slightly less than 4% of that market.

Under those conditions, he said a $1 million BTC price would appear unrealistic because the cryptocurrency would need to capture more than half of the existing store-of-value market. He described this scenario as a “high bar.” However, the CIO noted that the market itself has grown significantly over time and may continue expanding. He pointed to the growth of the metal’s market capitalization over the past two decades, and added that when the first US gold exchange-traded fund launched in 2004, the global market was worth about $2.5 trillion.

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Since then, the value of gold has increased to nearly $40 trillion, representing a compound annual growth rate of roughly 13%, driven by concerns about government debt levels, geopolitical uncertainty, loose monetary policy, and other macroeconomic factors. Hougan said that if the broader store-of-value market continues growing at a similar pace, it could reach approximately $121 trillion within the next decade.

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Under that scenario, Bitcoin would only need to capture about 17% of the market to reach a valuation of $1 million per BTC. Hougan acknowledged that this would still represent significant growth, as BTC’s current share remains around 4%, but said recent developments suggest that expanding adoption could make such a shift possible.

Key Risks

Despite the optimistic outlook, Hougan said there are risks that could prevent the scenario from unfolding. He noted that the store-of-value market may not continue growing at the same pace seen over the past two decades, which included events such as the global financial crisis, the widespread adoption of quantitative easing, and a prolonged period of low interest rates.

A slowdown in those trends could also lead to declining gold prices. Another possibility is that Bitcoin fails to capture additional market share.

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At the same time, Hougan said it is also possible that current projections underestimate the asset’s potential if concerns about rising government debt intensify and investors increasingly turn to alternative stores of value. Under his base-case scenario, he said the store-of-value market would continue expanding while Bitcoin gradually increases its share. He added that such a combination could result in prices far above current levels.

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Revolut Secures UK Bank License, Teases Upcoming Services

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Crypto Breaking News

Revolut has received regulatory clearance to operate a fully licensed bank in the United Kingdom, launching Revolut Bank UK after approval from the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA). The bank will offer deposit accounts to individuals and businesses, with insured deposits capped at 120,000 pounds by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS). The transition for existing Revolut UK customers will be rolled out gradually over several months to integrate the new banking framework, while the fintech outlines a roadmap that includes lending and other services beyond basic accounts. In a broader push, Revolut also disclosed that it had filed for a full banking license in Peru and a federal US banking charter in January, signaling a multi-jurisdictional strategy to blend digital finance with traditional banking regulation.

Details of the PRA approval were echoed by Revolut in a post on X, linking to the announcement from the company. The step marks a notable milestone for a fintech that has built a reputation around rapid, user-friendly digital services and now seeks to operate within the safety nets and supervisory standards that govern traditional banks.

Revolut’s UK rollout is positioned as a foundational move that could unlock a broader range of services in due course. The bank will begin by offering deposit accounts to eligible customers, with the FSCS providing a safety net similar to the way insured deposits work in other jurisdictions. The gradual migration means customers can expect a phased onboarding process as Revolut builds the operational capacity to handle regulatory compliance, risk management, and capital requirements that accompany a licensed bank. While the immediate focus is deposit taking, the company has signaled that lending, payments, and other regulated activities could follow as the business scales within the safety framework of UK banking supervision.

The announcement aligns with a wider trend in which fintechs and crypto-adjacent firms are pursuing formal banking relationships or licenses to access regulated payment rails and traditional funding channels. Revolut’s move mirrors a broader strategic arc in the sector, where digital-first financial platforms are increasingly comfortable trading in a regulated environment that offers consumer protections and a defined line of accountability for capital and operations. In that context, Revolut’s UK license acts as both a proof of concept and a potential template for regional expansion, should regulatory approvals in other jurisdictions align with its product roadmap.

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Beyond the UK, Revolut’s filings point to a multi-regional ambition. In January, the company disclosed it had applied for a full banking license in Peru and a federal banking charter in the United States. Peruvian licensing could open doors to cross-border remittances and local consumer banking, while a U.S. banking charter would place Revolut on a sharply regulated stage with potential access to broader U.S. payments infrastructure. Taken together, these moves illustrate how fintechs are recalibrating their growth strategies—seeking regulatory legitimacy not as a mere compliance checkbox, but as a platform for diversified financial services that can compete with incumbents on a more level playing field.

The sector’s momentum toward formal banking has also intensified discussions about the role of crypto and digital assets within regulated systems. A subset of crypto-focused firms has long argued that national bank charters could unlock direct access to the payments rails and reduce friction for on-ramps and off-ramps between crypto ecosystems and traditional finance. Notable examples cited in industry conversations include Ripple, Paxos, and Circle, all of which have pursued or explored regulatory designations that would position crypto-related activities within the broader banking ecosystem. In March, Kraken—one of the largest crypto exchanges—was granted a limited-purpose master account with the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, marking a historic step toward direct Fed access for crypto entities, albeit with clear constraints designed to preserve safety and supervision of the payments system.

The broader regulatory environment remains dynamic. A banking trade association in the United States has reportedly considered legal action against the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to block crypto firms from acquiring bank charters, highlighting the friction between innovation and traditional banking controls. At the same time, bankers and lobbyists have pushed back against yield-bearing stablecoins and other crypto-enabled services that could shift market share away from established lenders. The tension between encouraging financial innovation and maintaining systemic safeguards continues to shape policy, litigation, and strategic partnerships across the fintech and crypto sectors.

From a market perspective, these developments come amid ongoing debates about how to balance consumer protection, financial stability, and competitive innovation. While Revolut’s UK launch demonstrates growing appetite for regulated, tech-enabled banking, the path forward will likely hinge on how regulators interpret cross-border licensing, consumer protections, and the interplay between digital assets and traditional financial rails. The next 12 to 24 months could see a flurry of licensing activity, updated supervisory frameworks, and more structured collaborations between fintechs, crypto firms, and conventional banks as the financial system absorbs rapidly evolving digital capabilities.

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In parallel, the industry’s push toward deeper integration with the formal banking system underscores a broader shift in which digital-first firms are increasingly treated as participants in traditional finance rather than isolated disruptors. That shift is fueling a dual dynamic: a demand for robust regulatory compliance to gain legitimacy and, at the same time, a push to innovate on product design and customer experience within those regulatory boundaries. Revolut’s UK bank launch is a concrete manifestation of this trend, signaling that the boundary between fintech and conventional banking is continuing to blur in a carefully managed, policy-driven manner.

Key takeaways

  • Revolut Bank UK begins operations after PRA approval, offering deposit accounts with FSCS protection up to 120,000 pounds per depositor.
  • Existing Revolut UK customers will be transitioned gradually to the new bank accounts over several months, with lending among the future service expansions.
  • Revolut has pursued cross-border licensing, filing for a full Peruvian banking license and a US federal banking charter in January.
  • The crypto industry continues to seek bank charters to access traditional payment rails, while regulators and bankers push back on risk and market disruption.
  • Kraken secured a limited-purpose master account with the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in March, marking a milestone for crypto access to the Fed system, albeit within defined limits.
  • Regulatory debates around stablecoins and crypto banking remain a central battleground for incumbents and fintechs alike.
  • Sentiment: Neutral

    Market context: The move illustrates a broader trend of fintechs seeking regulated banking status to access payments rails and expand product offerings, while regulators balance innovation with consumer protection and systemic resilience.

    Why it matters

    For consumers and businesses, Revolut Bank UK unlocks insured banking through a familiar digital platform, potentially simplifying tasks such as savings, payments, and lending within a single ecosystem. The FSCS protection up to 120,000 pounds provides a safety net that investors and everyday users expect from a licensed bank, enhancing trust as customers migrate from non-bank services to regulated accounts.

    From a broader industry perspective, the move signals a continued convergence between fintechs, crypto-adjacent firms, and traditional banking. By pursuing regulated status, fintechs aim to secure greater access to payments infrastructure, risk controls, and capital markets channels—without surrendering the speed and user-centric design that define their brands. Yet the path is not without risk: industry advocates must navigate a complicated regulatory landscape and potential pushback from lenders wary of new entrants encroaching on the core of conventional banking. The Kraken development and the OCC-related discussions underscore how policy, liquidity access, and the stability of the payments system remain central to any expansion of crypto and fintech activities into licensed banking territory.

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    What to watch next

    • Timeline for Revolut Bank UK’s onboarding of existing customers and the rollout of new lending products.
    • Progress and outcomes of Revolut’s Peru banking license application and the US federal charter filing made in January.
    • Regulatory responses to crypto firms pursuing bank charters, including any developments from the OCC or related lawsuits.
    • Further updates on crypto firms’ access to Fed-like payment rails, including any new master accounts or adjusted eligibility criteria.

    Sources & verification

    • Revolut’s official announcement confirming Revolut Bank UK and FSCS-deposits coverage of up to 120,000 pounds.
    • PRA regulatory approval documentation for Revolut Bank UK.
    • Revolut’s disclosures about Peru and the US banking charter filing in January.
    • Kraken’s master account with the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and related coverage of Fed access for crypto firms.
    • Public industry discussions regarding crypto banking, OCC actions, and debates on stablecoins and traditional banking disruption.

    Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Ledger Uncovers Security Vulnerability That Could Affect 25% of Android Phones

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Ledger Uncovers Security Vulnerability That Could Affect 25% of Android Phones

The chip vulnerability makes it possible for hackers to decrypt affected Android smartphones, and steal data — including crypto wallet private keys.

Ledger said on Wednesday, March 11, that it has discovered a vulnerability that could affect as much as 25% of Android phones, letting hackers steal users’ private keys, according to a press release shared with The Defiant.

The hardware wallet company’s in-house white-hat security team, the Donjon, has disclosed a critical vulnerability in Android smartphones powered by MediaTek chips that allows an attacker to extract user data — including wallet seed phrases and PINs — in under a minute, even when the phone is off.

In a proof-of-concept test, the Donjon plugged a Nothing CMF Phone 1 into a laptop and, within 45 seconds, was able to recover the device’s PIN, decrypt its storage, and extract seed phrases from six major crypto wallet apps: Trust Wallet, Base, Kraken Wallet, Rabby, tangem, and Phantom.

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Before the operating system of the MediaTek-powered Android device even loads, Ledger’s security team found that an attacker can connect over USB and steal the root cryptographic keys that ensure the phone’s full-disk encryption, per the release. The phone’s data can than be fully decrypted offline.

The vulnerability could affects phones using Trustonic’s Trusted Execution Environment (TEE), the release said, including the Solana Seeker phone.

“Smartphones were never designed to be vaults,” said Charles Guillemet, Ledger’s CTO, adding:

“If your crypto sits on a phone, it’s only as safe as the weakest link in that phone’s hardware, firmware, or software.”

Following the standard 90-day responsible disclosure process, Ledger said it reported the flaw to both MediaTek and Trustonic. MediaTek confirmed it delivered a fix to affected original equipment manufacturers in January.

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Ledger advised users of potentially affected Androids to install the latest security updates immediately.

The news comes crypto-related theft has been on the rise. As The Defiant reported, 2025 was a record year for crypto crime, with North Korea alone stealing roughly $2 billion — including the $1.5 billion Bybit hack, the largest hack on record.

But the threat isn’t limited to centralized exchanges. In December, Trust Wallet confirmed $7 million was stolen via a malicious Chrome extension update that harvested seed phrases directly from users’ browsers. Hackers have also reportedly been increasingly using AI tools and phishing-as-a-service infrastructure to increase the number of attacks.

This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.

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Mastercard Launches Crypto Partner Program with 85+ Industry firms

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Visa, Circle, Mastercard, Binance, Stablecoin

Mastercard has launched a global crypto partner program that initially brings together more than 85 companies across the digital asset and payments industries to collaborate on blockchain-based payment and settlement systems.

The initiative is designed to connect crypto companies, financial institutions and payments providers as digital assets begin playing a larger role in cross-border transfers, payouts and other financial services.

Participants include crypto exchanges, blockchain networks and infrastructure providers including Binance, Circle, Gemini, Paxos, Ripple, PayPal, Polygon, Solana, Crypto.com, MoonPay, Fireblocks and the Canton Network.

They will work with Mastercard on products that integrate blockchain-based systems with existing payment infrastructure. According to the announcement, the program will focus on use cases such as cross-border money movement, settlements and commercial payments.

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In a post on X on Wednesday, Mastercard said “digital assets are entering a new phase,” with technologies that once operated alongside traditional finance increasingly being applied to practical uses such as cross-border remittances and business-to-business payments.

Visa, Circle, Mastercard, Binance, Stablecoin
Source: Mastercard

Mastercard said the initiative builds on its existing work in digital assets, including partnerships with crypto companies, programs supporting blockchain startups and crypto-linked payment cards.

Related: Mastercard, MetaMask launch US crypto card, debuting in New York

Visa and Mastercard deepen embrace of digital assets

Mastercard’s new partner program comes as major payments networks deepen their embrace of digital assets. Both Mastercard and Visa have launched initiatives in recent years aimed at integrating blockchain technology and stablecoins with traditional payment infrastructure.

In September, Visa announced a pilot that allows banks to pre-fund cross-border payments with stablecoins through its Visa Direct platform, enabling near-instant payouts.

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About a month later, the company said it would expand its crypto services to support four additional stablecoins across four blockchains, in addition to stablecoins it already supports on networks including Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Stellar (XLM) and Avalanche (AVAX).