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29,000 BTC Withdrawn While Futures Shorts Continue to Rise: Data

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Here’s How US Funding Certainty Calmed Markets and Lifted Bitcoin


Despite exchange withdrawals, Bitcoin spot trading volume remains near multi-year lows.

Digital assets edged higher this week after US President Donald Trump indicated the war with Iran may be approaching an end, despite later adopting a more aggressive tone online. Bitcoin climbed above $71,000 briefly after surging by over 4%.

Data suggests potential accumulation as futures traders continue building short positions.

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Bitcoin Supply Tightens

According to the latest analysis by Binance Research, on-chain data indicate possible spot accumulation this week, even as short positions remain high in the futures market. While a reversal has not yet been confirmed, current conditions suggest a shift may be developing.

The firm observed that roughly 29,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges while Bitcoin traded in the $65,000 to $75,000 range. This contrasts with the earlier decline from $97,000 to $62,000, when rising exchange balances indicated stronger sell pressure. Over the past six months, however, the relationship between exchange balances and prices has weakened, and lower liquidity on trading venues may amplify future price movements.

At the same time, stablecoin inflows to exchanges have risen about 80% from roughly $2 billion since March. This points to renewed liquidity entering the market and suggests that capital may be actively deployed to support Bitcoin accumulation.

Despite these developments, Bitcoin spot trading volume remains near multi-year lows, amid weaker demand and thinner order books. This pattern may reflect accumulation occurring off-exchange through OTC channels, which is consistent with recently reported sharp outflows from OTC desk balances. In derivatives markets, open interest has risen about 18% since the end of February after falling below $30 billion, while funding rates remain low to negative. This means that much of the activity is driven by short positions.

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Market Stress Signals Emerge

On-chain data shared by Amr Taha points to conditions that have previously appeared during periods of market stress. In a recent update, the analyst said the Binance Bitcoin derivatives market index has fallen to roughly 0.35. This level is similar to readings recorded in July and August 2024 and is lower than the 0.43 level seen in April 2025.

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Historically, levels in this range have occurred near major market lows, which were later followed by strong price recoveries. Taha also posted a chart showing a decline in the value of Bitcoin held by short-term investors. According to the data, the market capitalization of these holdings has dropped to about $390 billion, compared with roughly $437 billion recorded on April 7, 2025.

The analyst said large declines in this metric have often preceded capitulation among short-term holders. A similar drop took place on April 8, 2025, when intense selling pushed the leading crypto asset toward $78,000 before it later surged above $108,000.

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Crypto World

Kalshi Suffers Court Loss in Ohio over Sports Betting Lawsuit

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Law, CFTC, Court, Kalshi, Prediction Markets

The prediction markets platform argued for an injunction against Ohio authorities, claiming that federal commodities laws superseded state laws on sport event contracts.

An Ohio federal court has denied a motion filed by prediction markets platform Kalshi for a preliminary injunction against Ohio state authorities over allegations that the company was operating in violation of gambling laws.

In an order filed Monday, US District Court for the Southern District of Ohio Chief Judge Sarah Morrison denied Kalshi’s request for an injunction that would have blocked the Ohio Casino Control Commission and state attorney general from regulating contracts on the platform, specifically for sports betting.

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According to the judge, Kalshi had failed to show that the sports event contracts available on the platform were subject to the “exclusive jurisdiction” of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

“Even if this Court were to find that sports-event contracts are swaps subject to the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction, Kalshi has not shown that the [Commodity Exchange Act, or CEA] would necessarily preempt Ohio’s sports gambling laws,” said the opinion and order, adding:

“Kalshi argues that Ohio’s sports gambling laws are field and conflict preempted by the CEA when it comes to sports-event contracts traded on its exchange […] Kalshi fails to establish that Congress intended the CEA to preempt state laws on sports gambling.”

Law, CFTC, Court, Kalshi, Prediction Markets
Source: Courtlistener

The denial pushed back against the narrative from CFTC Chair Michael Selig, who said in February that the federal regulator had “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets and threatened lawsuits against any authority claiming otherwise. Kalshi and prediction platforms face lawsuits in other US states over similar allegations involving unlicensed sports betting.

“This Court does not endeavor to explain why the CFTC has not exercised its authority […] with respect to the sports-event contracts,” said the Monday filing in Ohio. “But the agency’s inaction is not proof that the sports-event contracts are regulated by or permissible under the CEA—and the Court has concluded they are not.”

Related: CFTC chair backs blockchain-based prediction markets as ‘truth machines’

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In a statement to Cointelegraph, a Kalshi spokesperson said that the company “respectfully disagree[d] with the Court’s decision, which splits from a decision from a federal court in Tennessee just a few weeks ago, and will promptly seek an appeal.”

CFTC guidance on prediction markets could be looming

Last week, Selig said that the federal regulator was working to provide guidance regarding prediction markets “in the very near future.” The CFTC chair is the sole Senate-confirmed commissioner in a panel normally consisting of five people.

Magazine: The debate over Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over: Benjamin Cowen

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