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$8.72B Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expiry: Pain Trade Looms?

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Bitcoin Expiring Options

Over $8.72 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire today, marking February’s largest derivatives event.

The expiring options place the crypto market at a critical inflection point, with volatility elevated and sentiment fragile.

February’s $8.72 Billion Expiry Crossroads: Will Bitcoin and Ethereum Face the Pain Trade?

Bitcoin accounts for the lion’s share of the exposure, with 114,705 contracts representing $7.74 billion in notional value heading into settlement.

Bitcoin Expiring Options
Bitcoin Expiring Options. Source: Deribit

Ethereum follows with 478,992 contracts worth approximately $975 million. Combined, the expiries account for roughly 20% of total open interest, suggesting their potential market impact.

At current prices, both assets sit notably below their respective “max pain” levels or the strike price at which the greatest number of options expire worthless.

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Bitcoin was trading for $68,052, compared to a max pain level of $75,000. Ethereum changes hands near $2,035, below its $2,200 max pain threshold.

Call open interest (OI) dominates across both assets. Bitcoin shows 66,300 call contracts versus 48,405 puts, giving a put-to-call ratio of 0.73. Ethereum’s ratio stands at 0.78, with 268,642 calls and 210,350 puts outstanding.

Ethereum Expiring Options
Ethereum Expiring Options. Source: Deribit

Analysts at Deribit note that call OI leads across both majors, with Bitcoin carrying the significantly larger notional weight into settlement. This factor could amplify spot sensitivity if hedging flows intensify.

Volatility Divergence Signals Unease

Meanwhile, volatility metrics reveal a nuanced picture. According to Deribit data, Bitcoin’s DVOL index sits at 53, with an implied volatility (IV) percentile of 87.7, which is elevated relative to its historical range.

BTC Volatility Index showing elevated implied volatility
BTC DVOL at 53.05 with IV percentile of 87.7, showing high volatility ahead of February expiry (Source: Deribit)

Ethereum’s DVOL is higher in absolute terms at 70, but its IV percentile of 55.7 suggests it is less extreme than its historical behavior.

Still, Ethereum volatility is running approximately 15–20 points above Bitcoin across the curve. It indicates traders are pricing in materially higher uncertainty across ETH maturities.

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Term structure remains in contango for both assets, with a front-end volatility premium concentrated around the February expiry.

Fear Unwinds, But Conviction Lags

Earlier this month, 25-delta skew for both Bitcoin and Ethereum plunged toward -30, reflecting intense demand for downside protection as prices slid sharply.

Since then, skew has steadily recovered to around -8 to -9, signaling that panic hedging has eased. However, skew remains negative, indicating the market has not fully shaken off its defensive posture. Against this backdrop, analysts at Greeks.live describe the broader market as sluggish.

In early February, Bitcoin briefly tested the $60,000 psychological threshold and has since oscillated weakly above it.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: TradingView

While a recent two-day rebound lifted implied volatility (with BTC main-term IV at 47% and ETH at 65%) confidence remains thin.

“The downward price trend has eased, but market confidence remains insufficient,” Greeks.live noted, adding that large-block call options have dominated recent trading activity, particularly in medium- to long-term maturities.

Skew metrics rebounding indicates emerging bottom-fishing activity, but the firm cautions that the market remains firmly in bear territory.

Crucially, analysts argue that the crypto market lacks fresh capital inflows and clear catalysts, with pessimistic narratives still dominating social channels. Despite signs that extreme fear is unwinding, conviction behind the rebound appears tentative.

With both Bitcoin and Ethereum trading well below their max pain levels, spot prices could gravitate higher heading into today’s options expiry. Such an outcome could intensify a potential “pain trade.”

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However, subdued demand could allow volatility to compress after expiry, with derivatives markets pricing less panic, but not yet a return of confidence.

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Hedera price eyes bullish crossover as stablecoin activity fires up, will it break out?

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Hedera price is forming a bullish SMA crossover on the daily chart.

Hedera price rallied over 8% this week amid a notable jump in the stablecoin supply held on the network.

Summary

  • Hedera price rebounded 8% this week amid an uptick in network activity.
  • HBAR price action is close to confirming a bullish crossover on the daily chart.

According to data from crypto.news, Hedera (HBAR) price rallied 8.7% over this week amid a broader crypto market rebound largely fueled by Bitcoin reclaiming key support levels and improved investor appetite for risk assets amid a surge in tech stocks.

The token’s rally also gained support from a jump in stablecoin supply held on the network. Data from DeFiLlama show that its stablecoin supply has surged nearly 17% over the past seven days, driven largely by USDC, which accounts for about 99.8% of the total supply.

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A surge in stablecoin means more users are transacting, deploying capital, or seeking yield on the network. Such activities tend to support retail sentiment.

Demand from derivative traders also provided an impetus to HBAR’s rally. Notably, Hedera futures open interest has increased by 3% in the past 24 hours, while its weighted funding rate has also turned positive.

A positive funding rate means more traders are entering the market with bullish bets, which in turn is improving overall market sentiment.

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On the daily chart, Hedera price has broken above a descending trendline that had been acting as a dynamic resistance, capping price movement since late October last year. When an asset breaks out of such a descending trendline resistance, it is typically a sign of a trend reversal, with dominance shifting to the hands of bulls.

Hedera price is forming a bullish SMA crossover on the daily chart.
Hedera price is forming a bullish SMA crossover on the daily chart — Feb. 27 | Source: crypto.news

The 20-day SMA appears close to moving above the 50-day SMA, forming what traders term a short-term bullish crossover. When such crossovers are confirmed, cryptocurrencies have often sparked sharp rallies.

Adding to the bullish outlook, the MACD lines have also pointed upwards and are close to moving above the zero line.

Hence, the price outlook for Hedera appears to be bullish for now, with the token most likely to target $0.12 next, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

On the contrary, if bears can push the price below the 20-day SMA of $0.097, Hedera could enter a downtrend. 

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However, the lackluster demand for Hedera spot ETFs could become a bottleneck for any upside move, especially since other assets like XRP and Solana ETFs have continued to outpace HBAR in both net daily inflows and total assets under management (AUM).

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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ETH, XRP, ADA, BNB, and HYPE

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eth_price_chart_2702261

This Friday, we examine Ethereum, Ripple, Cardano, Binance Coin, and Hyperliquid in greater detail.

Ethereum (ETH)

After weeks of bearish price action, Ethereum has finally found support at the $1,800 level, where buyers have shown interest. This allowed ETH to close the week 5% higher, reaching $2,000, which is currently being contested.

If the bulls manage to hold the price above $2,000 and turn this level into a key support, then the cryptocurrency has a good shot at moving much higher and towards $2,400, which is the next resistance on the chart.

Looking ahead, ETH may be entering a relief rally that could take it as high as $2,800. Once there, sellers could step up the pressure again.

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eth_price_chart_2702261
Source: TradingView

Ripple (XRP)

XRP has been flat over the past week and has not made any gains. Nevertheless, there are signs the price wants to move higher since sellers have failed to make lower lows.

This pause in price action could be interpreted as bullish because sellers have lost the initiative, which opens the door for buyers to return and push XRP to the next key level at $1.6. This becomes likely if the current support at $1.4 continues to hold.

Looking ahead, a bounce higher can be expected, but sellers could return at $1.6. Only if that level is broken can bulls hope to reclaim $2 or higher.

xrp_price_chart_2702261
Source: TradingView

Cardano (ADA)

ADA had a good week, closing with a 7% gain. This is the first time in months that ADA is managing to look bullish after a prolonged correction. To consolidate the current gains, buyers will have to push this cryptocurrency above 30 cents, which acts as a resistance.

If 30 cents falls, then the next key target will be found at 36 cents, which is likely to be defended by sellers quite aggressively based on the past price action.

Looking ahead, Cardano may be forming a bottom here, which would be in line with the past. If so, this is an attractive area for buyers, especially since this downtrend lasted for over a year and a reversal is overdue.

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ada_price_chart_2702261
Source: TradingView

Binance Coin (BNB)

Binance Coin closed the week 4% higher and found strong support around $600. It seems sellers ran out of steam and were unable to break lower and hold the price there. Because of this a bounce here is likely.

Should buyers become more active in the days to come, their first target is found at $690. If that level is reclaimed, then they will look at $900 next.

Looking ahead, BNB wants to recover some of the recent losses, and considering most altcoins are turning bullish, it would not be surprising to see this cryptocurrency also make steady gains in the coming days and weeks.

bnb_price_chart_2702261
Source: TradingView

Hype (HYPE)

HYPE is flat on the weekly chart and is trying to return above $30. So far, buyers will need at least one more push to be successful, but sellers may be waiting for that move before they return.

With momentum building up behind bulls across the market, HYPE has a good shot at a breakout beyond $30, especially if the recent test of the $26 support is confirmed as a higher low.

Looking ahead, HYPE has a real chance to rally if the $30 is turned into support. Watch the price action in the next few days, as it will be decisive to where this cryptocurrency goes next.

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hype_price_chart_2702261
Source: TradingView
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MARA Bitcoin miner posts $1.7B quarterly loss as BTC slumps

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Crypto Breaking News

In its latest quarterly update, MARA Holdings confronted a stark reality: even as its bitcoin mining fleet generated fewer coins, the company’s balance sheet was weighed down by falling crypto valuations and a strategic pivot away from pure mining. MARA reported a fourth-quarter 2025 net loss of $1.71 billion, or $4.52 per diluted share, compared with a year-earlier net income of $528.3 million. Revenue slipped 6% year over year to $202.3 million, as a softer Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) price offset a higher hashrate. For the full year, the firm posted a net loss of $1.31 billion on revenue of $907.1 million, reversing 2024’s $541 million profit.

Key takeaways

  • MARA’s Q4 2025 net loss was $1.71 billion and revenue was $202.3 million, with earnings pressured by the decline in BTC prices despite a higher mining hashrate.
  • For the full year 2025, the company recorded a net loss of $1.31 billion on $907.1 million in revenue, reversing 2024’s profit as crypto prices remained volatile.
  • A $1.5 billion negative adjustment to the fair value of digital assets and receivables contributed to the quarterly loss, reflecting BTC price declines from around $114,300 on Sept. 30 to $88,800 on Dec. 31 (per CoinGecko).
  • MAR A’s BTC holdings at year-end totaled 53,822, with 15,315 pledged or loaned, and the balance-sheet BTC carried a roughly $4.7 billion value at quarter-end prices.
  • The company unveiled a strategic pivot into AI and high-performance compute, including a joint venture with Starwood Digital Ventures to build data centers at power-rich sites, initially targeting more than 1 GW of IT capacity and potentially expanding to 2.5 GW.
  • In February, MARA acquired a 64% stake in Exaion to pursue sovereign-grade and enterprise AI deployments as part of the broader diversification plan.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $MARA

Sentiment: Bearish

Price impact: Negative. MARA’s stock has fallen about 46% over the past six months as results and strategic pivots weigh on investor sentiment.

Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. While the transition toward AI/HPC is notable, near-term investors should watch project execution and BTC price stability before reassessing risk/reward.

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Market context: The results come amid a broader crypto downturn where mining economics remain sensitive to BTC price swings, regulator signals, and capital allocation shifts among miners pursuing diversified revenue streams rather than pure hodling or mining.

Why it matters

The quarterly and annual figures underscore a pivotal moment for MARA as it moves beyond a pure-play bitcoin miner toward an energy and digital infrastructure company. The heavy accounting hit from the fair value of digital assets illustrates how price volatility can disproportionately affect mining-focused models, even when production levels hold steady or improve. By contrast, the balance sheet remains robust in crypto terms, with a substantial BTC stash that, on paper, still carries significant value given the ongoing, albeit uneven, interest in asset-backed mining operations.

Beyond the numbers, the strategic pivot is the centerpiece. MARA’s collaboration with Starwood Digital Ventures aims to unlock a significant AI/HPC footprint on existing energy-rich sites, a move that could open new revenue channels independent of BTC cycles. The plan envisions more than 1 gigawatt of IT capacity in the initial phase, with a roadmap to exceed 2.5 GW over time. Crucially, MARA retains the option to invest up to 50% in individual projects, while continuing to mine where power remains economical. This hybrid model reflects a broader industry trend: miners seeking to hedge against crypto price volatility by anchoring operations in data centers and AI workloads that can generate steady, long-term demand.

Additionally, the February acquisition of a 64% stake in Exaion signals a concrete push into AI deployments that could leverage MARA’s grid-scale energy footprint. Exaion’s focus on sovereign-grade and enterprise AI deployments aligns with the growing demand for specialized compute resources, particularly at the intersection of crypto mining infrastructure and high-performance compute networks. As more miners explore blended business models, MARA’s approach stands out for attempting to formalize AI-centric data center capacity alongside mining operations.

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In comparison, peers are testing similar pivots with varying degrees of commitment. Some miners are leaning into large AI data-center leases, while others continue to emphasize a combined strategy of mining and hoarding BTC to preserve, and potentially grow, crypto exposure. The sector’s direction remains dependent on macro conditions, including BTC price trajectories, energy costs, and regulatory developments that could influence the economics of large-scale mining and data-center deployments alike.

The financials also hint at the balancing act between growth investments and shareholder value. If the Starwood joint venture and Exaion initiatives deliver on capacity and utilization, MARA could unlock a multi-year path toward diversified cash flows. Yet the immediate picture is clouded by historical volatility in the crypto markets and the challenge of turning large capex programs into near-term profits. Investors will be watching how the company manages capital deployment, debt, and any potential tranche financing to accelerate its AI/HPC push while supporting ongoing mining operations.

The company’s overall strategy, while ambitious, mirrors a broader move within the crypto hardware space toward building resilient, diversified platforms. As data centers become a more common anchor for crypto firms, MARA’s ability to translate capacity into meaningful revenue streams will be a key test for the model’s sustainability in a market where price signals for BTC remain bifurcated and often unpredictable.

What to watch next

  • Progress updates on the Starwood Digital Ventures AI/HPC data-center partnership, including projected milestones for the initial >1 GW capacity and any expansions toward 2.5 GW.
  • Operational and financial details on Exaion deployments and contracts, particularly any sovereign-grade AI projects and enterprise compute commitments.
  • Bitcoin price movements and realized/batched mining yields as MARA advances its hybrid strategy, plus any changes to the company’s balance-sheet BTC position or collateral arrangements.
  • Any capital-raising efforts, debt restructurings, or financing agreements tied to the new AI/HPC initiatives and data-center builds.
  • Regulatory developments affecting crypto mining, energy use, and AI infrastructure deployments that could impact project economics or timelines.

Sources & verification

  • MARA Holdings Q4 2025 shareholder letter filed with the SEC (SEC: q425shareholderletter.htm).
  • Bitcoin price data used for the fair value discussion (CoinGecko: bitcoin).
  • Company updates and stock performance coverage (Yahoo Finance: MARA).
  • Exaion stake and AI/HPC deployments referenced in MARA communications (Cointelegraph article on Exaion stake).

Key figures and next steps

What the announcement changes

The fourth quarter reports reveal a company navigating a difficult macro environment for mining while actively pursuing a structural shift toward AI-enabled data centers. If successful, the Starwood JV and Exaion partnerships could provide MARA with nonmining revenue streams that weather BTC price cycles. The path forward will hinge on project execution, the pace of capacity buildup, and the ability to translate compute demand into sustained profitability.

Sources & verification

  • SEC filing: q425shareholderletter.htm
  • CoinGecko data: bitcoin
  • Yahoo Finance: MARA
  • Exaion stake coverage: Cointelegraph

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Ethereum price outlook as foundation unveils “Strawmap” for network upgrades

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Ethereum price outlook as foundation unveils "Strawmap" for network upgrades - 1

Ethereum is attempting to stabilize above the $2,000 level as fresh details around the network’s long-term scaling roadmap, dubbed the “Strawmap,” inject renewed fundamental optimism into the market.

Summary

  • Ethereum is holding above $2,000 as the Ethereum Foundation unveils its “Strawmap,” a roadmap aimed at faster slot times and improved transaction finality.
  • ETH is consolidating between $1,900 and $2,100 after a sharp January–February sell-off, with $2,100 acting as key breakout resistance.
  • Momentum indicators, including the Aroon Oscillator and Bull-Bear Power, are turning positive, suggesting early-stage accumulation but confirmation requires a decisive move above range highs.

The proposal, outlined by Vitalik Buterin and backed by the Ethereum Foundation, sketches a path toward significantly faster slot times and improved transaction finality.

The plan envisions reducing block times and tightening confirmation latency, a move that could materially enhance user experience, rollup efficiency, and DeFi execution speeds.

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While the Strawmap remains a directional framework rather than a finalized upgrade schedule, its focus on faster slots and stronger finality reinforces Ethereum’s commitment to long-term scalability, a narrative that may help underpin price recovery after weeks of heavy selling pressure.

Ethereum price analysis: Can bulls reclaim $2,100?

On the daily ETH/USDT chart, Ethereum is trading around $2,035 after rebounding from a sharp early-February sell-off that briefly pushed the price below $1,900.

The broader structure shows that ETH fell aggressively from the $3,200–$3,300 region in January before finding demand near the $1,850 zone. Since that capitulation-style move, price action has shifted into consolidation, forming a range between approximately $1,900 and $2,100.

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Ethereum price outlook as foundation unveils "Strawmap" for network upgrades - 1
Ethereum price analysis | Source: Crypto.News

This sideways structure suggests the market is attempting to build a base following weeks of heavy distribution.

The $2,100 level now stands as immediate resistance and represents the upper boundary of the current range. A decisive daily close above this area would mark the first meaningful higher high on the daily timeframe and could open the path toward $2,300, where prior breakdown momentum accelerated.

Beyond that, $2,500 remains a major resistance zone, having previously acted as structural support before the January collapse.

On the downside, $1,900 continues to serve as critical short-term support. A break below that level would expose the $1,800 area, the site of the February wick low, as the next major demand zone.

Momentum indicators are beginning to show early signs of improvement. The Aroon Oscillator has flipped back into positive territory after an extended period of negative readings, indicating that bearish dominance is weakening.

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Meanwhile, Bull-Bear Power has shifted from deeply negative levels to printing green histogram bars above the zero line, suggesting that buying pressure is gradually returning.

Together, these signals point to a transition from capitulation to accumulation. However, confirmation of a trend reversal requires a clean breakout above $2,100 and sustained follow-through. Until then, Ethereum remains in a consolidation phase, balancing improving technical momentum against overhead resistance.

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TeraWulf Reports $35.8M Q4 Revenue Amid Mining Losses

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TeraWulf Reports $35.8M Q4 Revenue Amid Mining Losses

TeraWulf, a publicly listed US digital infrastructure company, missed fourth-quarter earnings estimates as its mining revenue dropped amid falling Bitcoin prices in late 2025.

TeraWulf (WULF) released 2025 earnings on Thursday, reporting a fourth-quarter loss of $1.66 per share, compared with a loss of $0.21 per share a year earlier. Analysts surveyed by Yahoo Finance had expected a $0.16 loss.

Revenue for the quarter ended Dec. 31 totaled $35.8 million, including $26.1 million from digital assets and $9.7 million from high-performance computing (HPC), down from $50.6 million in the third quarter. Analysts had expected an average of $44.1 million.

For the full year, Terawulf’s revenue rose from $140.1 million in 2024 to $168.5 million, expecting further growth in 2026 with $12.8 billion in signed AI and HPC contracts.

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“We are advancing build schedules and optimizing design to support next‑generation AI workloads at scale,” TeraWulf’s chief technology officer Nazar Khan said.

TeraWulf plans to double total capacity with Kentucky and Maryland sites

TeraWulf plans to expand its infrastructure in 2026 with the acquisition of a site in Kentucky (MISO) and a planned acquisition in Maryland (PJM).

The company expects these acquisitions to add 1.5 gigawatts (GW) to its platform, more than doubling its current capacity and bringing total owned platform capacity to approximately 2.8 GW across five sites.

Source: TeraWulf

Together, the sites form a multi-year development path capable of supporting 250-500 megawatts (MW) of critical IT capacity annually, allowing TeraWulf to scale with growing AI demand while maintaining disciplined capital deployment and credit-backed contracts.

“We enter 2026 with 522 critical IT MW of contracted HPC capacity and a gross 2.9-GW multi-regional platform designed for long-term expansion,” CEO Paul Prager said.

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Related: Bitcoin miner MARA posts $1.7B quarterly loss on BTC slump

Bitcoin mining companies have struggled as the cryptocurrency’s price fell from around $125,000 in early October to nearly $60,000 by February 2026, according to TradingView.

At $67,982 at the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading well below the estimated average cost to mine one coin, $87,310, according to MacroMicro.

The decline has intensified pressure on miners to pivot into AI and HPC, fueling a broader rush into data center operations.

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