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80% of Corporate Holders Now Underwater

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US Liquidity Is the Real Culprit


Nearly 80% of corporate Bitcoin holders are sitting on unrealized losses as BTC trades well below the average treasury purchase price.

Around 80% of companies holding Bitcoin (BTC) as a treasury asset are sitting on unrealized losses, according to an analysis by Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments.

The data comes at a time BTC is pushing back toward $71,000, raising questions of whether the widespread institutional pain is a warning sign or a contrarian buy signal.

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The Numbers Behind the Corporate Pain

Edwards shared a series of charts on X on March 10 showing that the simple average cost basis for Bitcoin treasury holdings is at around $90,000, which is well above where BTC is trading today.

On a weighted basis, which gives more weight to larger holders such as Strategy, the average purchase price dropped to about $81,000, showing that the biggest buyers got in earlier and at a lower level. But either way, the number one cryptocurrency is currently below both figures.

“At 80%, almost all treasuries are at a loss on their Bitcoin purchase today,” Edwards wrote. “Though history suggests this could get worse if 2026 is like 2022. There is no free Bitcoin yield.”

In the same thread, Edwards noted that institutions are also broadly down on their BTC positions, with the average institutional purchase price sitting near $78,000. He also said that ETF holders were in the red as well.

However, the analyst did flag one piece of data that stood out, namely that treasury and ETF buying had flipped net positive by 200% on the day of his post.

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“The last time it was this high, Bitcoin was at $90,000,” he stated, calling it “very good news, especially amid war.”

That appetite Edwards was referring to was typified by Strategy, which yesterday announced a purchase of 17,994 BTC at an average price of approximately $71,000 per BTC, bringing its total holdings to 738,731 BTC bought for $56 billion. At current prices, the firm’s position is carrying an unrealized loss in the region of $6 billion.

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Separately, Strategy’s perpetual preferred stock posted a new 2026 trading volume high of $299 million on March 9, which BitcoinTreasuries estimated was enough to fund another 1,360 BTC purchase.

The broader supply picture adds some context to why institutional accumulation is drawing attention, with analyst Darkfost noting that Bitcoin reserves on centralized exchanges have fallen to levels last seen in 2019.

Additionally, ETFs have absorbed around 1.3 million BTC since their January 2024 launch, while corporate treasury companies collectively hold about 1.1 million BTC, which is nearly 5% of the total supply.

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Bitcoin Price Overview

Bitcoin was changing hands near $71,000 at the time of this writing, up over 4% in 24 hours after bouncing from around $67,500. In the last seven days, the asset gained 6.4% and has almost doubled that over 14 days. Still, it remains down nearly 13% year-on-year and about 44% below its October 2025 all-time high.

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Crypto World

Kalshi Suffers Court Loss in Ohio over Sports Betting Lawsuit

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Law, CFTC, Court, Kalshi, Prediction Markets

The prediction markets platform argued for an injunction against Ohio authorities, claiming that federal commodities laws superseded state laws on sport event contracts.

An Ohio federal court has denied a motion filed by prediction markets platform Kalshi for a preliminary injunction against Ohio state authorities over allegations that the company was operating in violation of gambling laws.

In an order filed Monday, US District Court for the Southern District of Ohio Chief Judge Sarah Morrison denied Kalshi’s request for an injunction that would have blocked the Ohio Casino Control Commission and state attorney general from regulating contracts on the platform, specifically for sports betting.

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According to the judge, Kalshi had failed to show that the sports event contracts available on the platform were subject to the “exclusive jurisdiction” of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

“Even if this Court were to find that sports-event contracts are swaps subject to the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction, Kalshi has not shown that the [Commodity Exchange Act, or CEA] would necessarily preempt Ohio’s sports gambling laws,” said the opinion and order, adding:

“Kalshi argues that Ohio’s sports gambling laws are field and conflict preempted by the CEA when it comes to sports-event contracts traded on its exchange […] Kalshi fails to establish that Congress intended the CEA to preempt state laws on sports gambling.”

Law, CFTC, Court, Kalshi, Prediction Markets
Source: Courtlistener

The denial pushed back against the narrative from CFTC Chair Michael Selig, who said in February that the federal regulator had “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets and threatened lawsuits against any authority claiming otherwise. Kalshi and prediction platforms face lawsuits in other US states over similar allegations involving unlicensed sports betting.

“This Court does not endeavor to explain why the CFTC has not exercised its authority […] with respect to the sports-event contracts,” said the Monday filing in Ohio. “But the agency’s inaction is not proof that the sports-event contracts are regulated by or permissible under the CEA—and the Court has concluded they are not.”

Related: CFTC chair backs blockchain-based prediction markets as ‘truth machines’

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In a statement to Cointelegraph, a Kalshi spokesperson said that the company “respectfully disagree[d] with the Court’s decision, which splits from a decision from a federal court in Tennessee just a few weeks ago, and will promptly seek an appeal.”

CFTC guidance on prediction markets could be looming

Last week, Selig said that the federal regulator was working to provide guidance regarding prediction markets “in the very near future.” The CFTC chair is the sole Senate-confirmed commissioner in a panel normally consisting of five people.

Magazine: The debate over Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over: Benjamin Cowen

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