Bitcoin traded near $66,400 on February 19, holding steady after days of volatility. However, growing fears of a potential US military strike on Iran are adding fresh uncertainty to global markets, including crypto.

According to confirmed reports from multiple American media, US military officials have told President Donald Trump that strike options against Iran are ready and could be executed as early as this weekend. 

US-Iran on the Brink of War as Bitcoin Holds Fragile Support

The Pentagon has already deployed additional aircraft and moved a second carrier strike group toward the Middle East. At the same time, Iran has conducted military exercises and warned it would retaliate if attacked.

These developments follow stalled nuclear talks and rising tensions over Iran’s uranium enrichment and missile programs. 

The White House said diplomacy remains the preferred path, but officials also acknowledged that military action is under active consideration. This escalation has increased risk across global markets.

Bitcoin’s recent price action reflects this uncertainty. The asset has fallen sharply from its cycle highs above $100,000 and now trades in the mid-$60,000 range. 

Short-term investors are selling at a loss, according to the Short-Term Holder SOPR indicator, which currently sits below 1. This means many recent buyers are exiting their positions under pressure.

At the same time, Bitcoin’s short-term Sharpe ratio has dropped to extremely negative levels. This shows that recent returns have been poor relative to volatility. Historically, such conditions appear during periods of market stress and fear.

If the US launches a strike this weekend, Bitcoin will likely react in two phases.

Bitcoin’s On-Chain Signals Suggest Panic May Trigger Volatility

First, markets may see an immediate sell-off. During sudden geopolitical shocks, investors often move into cash and safer assets. Bitcoin has historically behaved like a risk asset in the early phase of global crises. The SOPR data confirms that short-term holders are already weak and sensitive to fear.

However, the second phase could look different.

The Sharpe ratio suggests Bitcoin is already deeply oversold in the short term. Many weak hands have exited. This reduces the amount of forced selling that can still occur. 

As a result, any sharp drop could be short-lived if buyers step in at lower levels.

In addition, geopolitical uncertainty can eventually strengthen Bitcoin’s appeal. Investors often turn to assets outside traditional financial systems when global tensions rise. This shift does not happen instantly, but it tends to develop over time.

For now, Bitcoin sits at a critical point. Fear remains high, and geopolitical risks are rising. But on-chain data suggests much of the damage from the recent correction has already occurred.

The next move will depend heavily on whether tensions escalate into actual military conflict—or ease through diplomacy.

Pro‑crypto PAC Protect Progress plans $1.5m spend next month against Rep. Al Green over his anti‑crypto voting record.

A cryptocurrency-aligned super PAC announced plans to spend $1.5 million opposing Rep. Al Green in the Texas Democratic primary next month, according to a statement released by the organization.

Protect Progress, a federal super PAC affiliated with Fairshake, said the funds will support advertising and voter outreach aimed at unseating Green, a longtime member of the House Financial Services Committee who has voted against several major crypto-related bills.

The group cited Green’s opposition to measures including the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act currently under consideration, and the GENIUS stablecoin bill that passed earlier this year. The organization also pointed to his support for maintaining the SEC’s Staff Accounting Bulletin 121, which limited how banks custody digital assets.

“As a member of the Financial Services Committee, Representative Al Green has decided to try and stop American innovation in its tracks,” Fairshake spokesperson Josh Vlasto said in a statement.

Green, who has served in Congress since 2005, has voiced skepticism about cryptocurrency, warning of potential risks to the U.S. dollar’s global role and raising concerns about the sector’s economic and environmental impact, according to public statements. During a House hearing last year, he dismissed claims that regulators pressured banks to cut ties with crypto firms, calling “Operation Choke Point 2.0” a “made-up statement.”

Green is running in a reshaped Houston-area district following Texas redistricting and faces Democratic challenger Christian Menefee, who has received favorable assessments from crypto advocacy groups.

Fairshake and affiliated committees reported holding approximately $193 million in cash earlier this year, following fundraising from major industry players including Coinbase, Ripple and Andreessen Horowitz, according to federal filings. The spending reflects how crypto-backed political groups plan to engage in the 2026 election cycle, backing candidates supportive of digital asset regulation while opposing lawmakers viewed as hostile to the industry.

Nvidia is close to finalizing a $30 billion investment in OpenAI, replacing an earlier plan for a massive $100 billion multi-year partnership. 

According to Financial Times, the deal would be part of OpenAI’s latest funding round, which could value the company at roughly $830 billion. OpenAI is expected to reinvest much of that capital into AI infrastructure, including Nvidia’s GPUs.

The shift from a $100 billion commitment to a smaller $30 billion equity investment changes the financial risk profile. 

Instead of funding massive infrastructure directly, Nvidia gains ownership exposure while still securing demand for its hardware. This restructuring has drawn close attention from investors already watching Nvidia’s volatile stock movements.

From Six-Week Lows to Strategic Rebound: Nvidia’s Volatile Month

Nvidia’s stock has moved sharply over the past several weeks. In early February, shares fell to around $177, marking a six-week low. 

The decline followed uncertainty over the original $100 billion OpenAI deal, concerns over US export restrictions on AI chips to China, and broader investor worries about the sustainability of AI spending.

However, the stock rebounded after Nvidia announced a smaller investment commitment, new partnerships, and major chip supply deals. 

A multi-year agreement to supply millions of AI chips to Meta also helped restore confidence. By mid-February, Nvidia shares recovered toward the high-$180 range.

Still, volatility persisted. Investors remained cautious about regulatory risks, high valuation levels, and whether AI infrastructure spending could deliver sustained returns.

Nvidia Commits to a Much Smaller Deal With OpenAI, But it Has a  Bigger Signal

The latest $30 billion investment is widely seen as strategically bullish for Nvidia. First, it removes the financial burden of the original $100 billion plan, which could have strained Nvidia’s balance sheet. 

Second, it strengthens Nvidia’s position as OpenAI’s primary hardware partner.

This means Nvidia benefits in two ways. It gains equity exposure to one of the world’s most valuable AI companies while continuing to sell the chips powering OpenAI’s models.

However, short-term reactions may remain mixed. Large investments always carry risk, and some investors prefer Nvidia to focus purely on chip sales. 

Still, the deal reinforces a key point: AI infrastructure spending continues to accelerate.

Ultimately, the investment strengthens Nvidia’s long-term outlook. It confirms that Nvidia remains at the center of the global AI boom, even as markets navigate short-term uncertainty.

TLDR:

• ETH-accumulating whales increased their balance as the realized price dropped, confirming active buying at lower levels. 
• The realized cap for accumulating whale addresses rose, ruling out any selling activity within this cohort. 
• ETH is currently trading at $1,949, with a 1.80% price gain recorded over the past seven-day period. 
• Trader Daan Crypto warns that a drop below $1,900 could push ETH toward its February lows fairly quickly. 

ETH continues to draw attention from large investors even as its price shows signs of pressure. On-chain data reveals that accumulating whale addresses are not selling their holdings.

Instead, these whales are buying at lower price levels. The realized price metric for this cohort has bent downward, which may seem alarming at first glance.

However, a closer look at balance and realized cap data tells a more complete story about what these large holders are actually doing.

What the Realized Price Drop Really Means for ETH

The realized price of accumulating whale addresses has turned downward for the first time. This kind of movement can point to two separate scenarios in the market.

Either a whale with a higher cost basis sold their ETH, pulling the average down. Or new buying occurred at lower prices, which also pulls the realized price downward.

To determine which case applies, analysts cross-referenced balance data and realized cap figures. In the same period where the realized price dropped, the balance of accumulating whales went up. At the same time, their realized cap also rose, not fell.

These two data points together confirm that no selling took place among this cohort. On the contrary, whales added more ETH to their holdings at reduced price levels. This buying behavior is what caused the realized price to bend downward, not distribution.

CryptoMe, a well-followed Cryptoquant on-chain analytics analyst, stated that accumulating whales’ trust in ETH still looks strong based on this data set.

Price Levels and What Traders Are Watching Closely

Even with whale accumulation continuing, the broader price action remains uncertain. ETH is currently trading at $1,949.06, with a 24-hour volume of over $18.8 billion. The asset posted a 0.23% gain in the past 24 hours and a 1.80% rise over the past seven days.

Crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that liquidity levels are clear in this range. According to Daan, a move above $2,150 would mark a new local high and likely push prices further up. However, a drop to $1,900 or below opens the door to revisiting February lows.

That caution is worth noting, especially since the accumulating whale data only covers one segment of the market. Other investor groups and broader macro conditions can still move the ETH price independently.

The on-chain data does not account for retail behavior, derivatives activity, or sentiment shifts.

Therefore, while whale accumulation is a constructive sign, it does not guarantee price direction in the short or medium term.

Traders and investors are advised to monitor multiple data sources before concluding where ETH heads next.

New analysis from banking data company KlariVis found that 90% of community banks in its sample had customers transacting with Coinbase. Across 53 banks where transaction direction could be determined, $2.77 flowed to the crypto exchange for every $1.00 returning, resulting in a net $78.3 million deposit shift over 13 months.

The study reviewed 225,577 Coinbase-related transactions across 92 community banks and found that transfers were heavily concentrated in money market accounts, where 96.3% of identifiable transaction volume represented funds leaving banks for the exchange.

“In general, community banks can be defined as those owned by organizations with less than $10 billion in assets,” the Federal Reserve says on its website.

KlariVis said that if the patterns observed in the sample hold nationally, more than 3,500 of the country’s roughly 3,950 community banks could have similar customer activity tied to Coinbase transfers.

The size of the 53 banks with directional data ranged from $185 million to $4.5 billion in deposits, with smaller institutions showing higher relative exposure. At banks with less than $1 billion in deposits, 82% to 84% of Coinbase-related transactions represented funds moving out, compared with about 66% to 67% at banks above $1 billion.

Across those banks, total outflows reached $122.4 million compared with $44.2 million in inflows. The average outbound transfer was $851, while inbound transfers averaged $2,999 but occurred far less frequently.

Money market accounts accounted for $36.8 million of the net outflow, with average transfers of $3,593, significantly higher than checking account movements.

Community banks hold about $4.9 trillion in deposits and fund about 60% of small business loans under $1 million and 80% of agricultural lending, according to the report, which argues sustained deposit migration could affect local credit availability.

Using academic estimates that small banks reduce lending by about $0.39 for every $1 decline in deposits, KlariVis said the $78.3 million net outflow could translate into about $30.5 million in reduced lending capacity.

Related: Coinbase’s Base transitions to its own architecture with eye on streamlining

CLARITY Act stalled by debate over stablecoin yield

The study comes as the US Congress, banks and crypto-native companies debate the CLARITY Act, which aims to define the regulatory framework for digital asset markets and determine whether crypto exchanges and stablecoin intermediaries can offer yield on customer holdings.

While the GENIUS Act, passed in July 2025, bars stablecoin issuers from paying interest, it does not prohibit third-party intermediaries such as Coinbase from offering yield on stablecoin balances, which has become a major point of contention between financial institutions and crypto companies.

In August, Banking groups, led by the Bank Policy Institute, urged lawmakers to address what they describe as a “loophole” in the law, warning that allowing exchanges to offer indirect yield could accelerate deposit outflows, disrupt credit flows and shift up to $6.6 trillion from the traditional banking system.

Last month, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan echoed that sentiment, saying interest-bearing stablecoins could draw up to $6 trillion from the US banking system, citing US Treasury-backed research suggesting deposits could migrate if issuers are allowed to pay yield. 

Meanwhile, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has pushed back against restrictions on stablecoin rewards. In January, he withdrew support for a version of the bill, writing on X: “We’d rather have no bill than a bad bill.” He raised several concerns about the draft, one of which was that it would eliminate stablecoin yield and protect banks from competition.

Despite ongoing tensions between banks and crypto companies, US Senator Bernie Moreno said on Wednesday he thinks the CLARITY Act could advance through Congress by April. Prediction marketplace Polymarket currently shows an 83% chance that the legislation will be signed into law this year.

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