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90% Rally Setup Returns, But With a Twist

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Divergence Setup

Polygon price is showing fresh signs of recovery after weeks of steady selling. Since February 11, POL is up nearly 13%, and over the past 24 hours, it has gained around 5.4%, holding most of its rebound near $0.095.

At first glance, the structure looks similar to the setup that triggered Polygon’s 90% rally earlier this year. Price is stabilizing, momentum is improving, and buyers are active near support. But this time, one critical element is missing. The last rally began after sellers were fully flushed out. This time, that flush has not happened yet.

POL Price Repeats the Old Reversal Pattern, But Without a Clean Seller Flush

Before the January rally, Polygon formed a very clear bottom. Between December and early January, the POL price printed a sharp lower low in a single move. Sellers capitulated. Weak hands exited. That created a clean base for buyers to step in.

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This time, the structure is different.

Between January 31 and February 11, POL again made a lower low near $0.087, while the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, formed a higher low. RSI measures buying and selling strength, and this bullish divergence usually signals that selling pressure is weakening. But instead of one decisive breakdown candle, POL tested the same support area twice.

Divergence Setup
Divergence Setup: TradingView

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Two separate candles touched the $0.087 zone. This creates a “lower-low zone” instead of a clean lower low.

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That matters. When a market prints a single deep low, it usually means sellers have given up, hinting at exhaustion. When the price keeps revisiting the same level, it means sellers are still active. Supply has not been fully absorbed yet. So even though the technical pattern looks similar, the psychology is different.

The market has stabilized, but it has not been fully cleansed. That unfinished seller flush is the foundation of the entire twist.

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Muted Leverage and Rising Shorts Reflect Unfinished Selling Pressure

This incomplete flush is clearly visible in the derivatives data. During the January rally, leverage exploded early.

Open interest on Binance jumped from around $16.6 million to over $40 million, rising more than 140% in a few days. Traders rushed into long positions as soon as the price turned. This time, that has not happened. Since February 11, while POL gained nearly 13%, open interest has stayed near $18.80 million. There is no strong buildup of leverage yet. Possibly hinting at low conviction.

Open Interest Steady
Open Interest Steady: Santiment

More importantly, funding rates are now negative, near -0.012. Funding rates show which side dominates futures markets. Negative rates mean short traders are paying longs. That signals growing bearish positioning.

In January, funding was positive. Traders were betting aggressively on upside. Now, shorts are building.

This fits perfectly with the price structure. Because sellers have not been flushed out, traders are still comfortable betting against the rally. They see unfinished downside risk. So instead of chasing longs, many are positioning for pullbacks. That lends a major hit to the supposed rally’s conviction.

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Funding Rate
Funding Rate: Santiment

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This keeps leverage restrained and momentum controlled. The rally is moving forward, but under constant pressure.

Whale Accumulation Is Supporting Price, But Not Forcing Capitulation

While traders remain cautious, large holders are behaving differently. Since early February, whale holdings have risen from around 7.5 billion to nearly 8.75 billion POL, an increase of about 16%. This shows that long-term buyers are accumulating quietly.

Their buying is the main reason the price keeps rebounding from the $0.087 area.

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POL Whales
POL Whales: Santiment

But whale accumulation has another effect. It absorbs supply without triggering panic. Instead of forcing weak sellers out, whales are slowly taking their coins. That stabilizes the price but delays capitulation. It is worth noting that during the last early-2026 rally, these Polygon whales hardly increased their stash.

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So the market ends up in between:

  • Sellers are still present (not flushed out)
  • Buyers are active
  • No one is fully in control of the Polygon price

This is why the price is rising gradually, not explosively. And that might limit the rally potential going forward.

Key Polygon Price Levels Will Decide Whether Sellers Finally Get Flushed

With unfinished selling pressure still in the system, price levels now matter more than patterns. On the upside, the key level is $0.11.

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A clean break above $0.118 would signal that remaining sellers are being overwhelmed. From current levels, that would be another 24% move. It would likely attract leverage and weaken short positions, finally completing the flush. Above that, targets open toward $0.137 and $0.186.

Polygon Price Analysis
Polygon Price Analysis: TradingView

On the downside, the critical support zone is $0.083-$0.087. If POL breaks below that, the lower-low setup fails, and a new one starts forming. That would confirm that sellers still have control and that the unfinished flush is playing out. In that case, the price could slide toward $0.072 and $0.061.

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Crypto World

PGI CEO Gets 20 Years Over $200M Crypto Investment Scheme

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PGI CEO Gets 20 Years Over $200M Crypto Investment Scheme

A US federal judge in Virginia sentenced the chief executive of Praetorian Group International to 20 years in prison for running a $200 million cryptocurrency investment scheme that defrauded tens of thousands of investors.

According to the Department of Justice, 61-year-old Ramil Ventura Palafox, a dual US and Philippine citizen, was convicted of wire fraud and money laundering for what prosecutors described as a Ponzi scheme that falsely promised daily returns of up to 3% from Bitcoin trading. 

The US Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Virginia said investors poured over $201 million into PGI between December 2019 and October 2021, including at least 8,198 Bitcoin (BTC) valued at about $171.5 million at the time. According to prosecutors, victims suffered losses of at least $62.7 million. 

The sentencing concludes the criminal case brought by the DOJ and follows a parallel civil action by the Securities and Exchange Commission, marking one of the larger crypto-related fraud cases in recent years by investor count and funds involved. 

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PGI founder Ramil Ventura Palafox. Source: PGI Global Trade

Fake trading claims and luxury spending

Court filings said Palafox told investors PGI was engaged in large-scale Bitcoin trading capable of generating consistent daily profits. 

However, prosecutors said the company was not trading at a level sufficient to support the promised returns. Instead, new investor funds were used to pay earlier participants. 

Authorities said Palafox operated an online portal that falsely displayed steady gains, giving investors the impression their accounts were growing. He also used a multilevel marketing structure, offering referral incentives to recruit new members. 

The DOJ said Palafox spent millions in investor funds on personal expenses, including $3 million on luxury vehicles, over $6 million on homes in Las Vegas and Los Angeles, and hundreds of thousands of dollars on penthouse suites and high-end retail purchases.

Authorities said he also transferred at least $800,000 and 100 BTC to a family member. 

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Related: Sam Bankman-Fried claims Biden DOJ silenced witnesses during FTX trial

Civil charges and international reach

The scheme began to unravel as regulators scrutinized PGI’s trading claims and fund flows.

In April 2025, the Securities and Exchange Commission filed a civil complaint alleging that Palafox misrepresented PGI’s Bitcoin trading activity and used new investor money to pay earlier participants.

The complaint said PGI promoted an AI-powered trading platform and guaranteed daily returns despite lacking trading operations capable of generating those profits.

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Federal prosecutors in the Eastern District of Virginia later unsealed criminal charges accusing Palafox of wire fraud and money laundering arising from the same conduct. 

Authorities had seized the company’s website in 2021, and related operations were shut down in the United Kingdom, signaling cross-border enforcement scrutiny before the US criminal case advanced.

The DOJ said victims may be eligible for restitution and directed them to the US Attorney’s Office website for information on filing claims.