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95% Crash on the Way?

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SOL Price


SOL is “basically trading in a big no man’s land,” one popular analyst argued.

Solana’s SOL has been on a severe downfall lately, with its valuation plummeting by almost 40% over the past month alone.

According to some analysts, the bears are yet to reveal their full potential, envisioning a slump below $10 in the near future.

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SOL HODLers, Beware

The leading altcoin was among the worst-affected cryptocurrencies following the latest market slump caused by Trump’s renewed tariff saga. Just a few hours ago, SOL briefly dipped to roughly $77 before snapping back above $80, meaning a 6% loss for the day.

SOL Price
SOL Price, Source: CoinGecko

The renowned analyst on X, Ali Martinez, observed the asset’s recent performance, claiming “the super trend indicator” has flashed a sell signal on the monthly chart. He noted that the last time this pattern appeared was in January 2022 and preceded a brutal 95% decline. Applying a decline of that magnitude to today’s levels would imply a staggering crash to approximately $4.

Moreover, Martinez warned investors to pay close attention to the $76 support zone. He believes that breaking below it could open the door to a further pullback to $53, $35, and $23.

Sjuul | AltCryptoGems also made bearish predictions recently. He argued that SOL “truly looks compromised on the high time frame” and is “basically trading in a big no man’s land.” The analyst claimed that as long as the price remains suppressed beneath the $110 resistance, SOL faces the risk of a deep retracement to as low as $20.

How About a Short-Term Bounce?

Despite the broader crypto market’s depressed condition and SOL’s substantial correction, the asset’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests a rebound could be on the way.

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The technical analysis tool gauges the speed and magnitude of recent price movements, offering insight into whether a potential trend reversal may be developing. It ranges from 0 to 100, and ratios below 30 indicate that SOL is oversold and could be on the verge of a rally. Data shows that the RSI has dipped well below that zone on a weekly scale.

SOL RSISOL RSI
SOL RSI, Source: CryptoWaves

X user Mags revealed that the asset’s weekly RSI has reached the same level it was in December 2022, when SOL was trading around $8. In the following months, it posted a major bull run, and the analyst wondered if history was about to repeat itself.

Solana’s recent exchange netflow is another factor worth observing. Toward the end of 2025 and into early 2026, inflows exceeded outflows, suggesting that investors were moving funds from self-custody to centralized platforms. This shift is considered a bearish signal because it can be interpreted as a pre-sale step. In recent weeks, however, the trend has reversed with outflows surpassing inflows.

SOL Exchange Netflow
SOL Exchange Netflow, Source: CoinGlass
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Crypto World

Bridging for Yield: Hidden Risk and Hidden Alpha

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Bridging for Yield: Hidden Risk and Hidden Alpha

Cross-chain bridges are the quiet workhorses of crypto. They move capital from one ecosystem to another, chasing higher APYs, better incentives, and fresh narrative momentum. But while most traders focus on yield percentages, the real game is understanding the risk layer beneath the bridge.

Because in DeFi, yield doesn’t just come from opportunity.
It often comes from risk mispricing.

Let’s break it down.

The Real Reason People Bridge

Nobody bridges for fun. They bridge for:

  • Higher farming incentives on new chains

  • Token emissions boosted by liquidity mining

  • Early-stage protocols with outsized rewards

  • Arbitrage between liquidity pools

  • Governance token airdrop positioning

Capital flows where rewards are highest. When liquidity is thin and incentives are strong, early movers capture disproportionate upside.

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That’s the alpha.

But the bridge itself? That’s the blind spot.

The Hidden Risk Layer

Bridging introduces a stacked risk model that most yield farmers underestimate:

1. Smart Contract Risk

Bridges are some of the most complex contracts in crypto. They lock assets on one chain and mint representations on another. Complexity increases attack surface.

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History has shown that bridges are prime targets for exploits. Billions have been lost across multiple incidents.

2. Custodial & Validator Risk

Some bridges rely on multisigs or validator sets. If governance is weak or keys are compromised, assets can vanish.

If you don’t know who controls the bridge, you don’t know your real counterparty.

3. Liquidity & Redemption Risk

Bridged assets are often synthetic representations. If liquidity dries up or redemption mechanisms fail, your “stable” asset may not be so stable.

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In extreme conditions, bridged tokens can depeg from their native counterparts.

4. Chain-Level Risk

Bridging into a newer chain often means lower security assumptions. Fewer validators, lower economic security, and less battle testing.

High APY sometimes equals high fragility.

Why Yield Exists in the First Place

Here’s the uncomfortable truth:

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If a chain is offering 30%+ stablecoin yields, it’s rarely because they love you.

It’s because:

  • They need liquidity.

  • They are bootstrapping an ecosystem.

  • They are compensating you for security uncertainty.

  • They are emitting inflationary rewards.

Yield is a risk payment. The question is whether that risk is priced correctly.

Where the Hidden Alpha Lives

Now here’s where things get interesting.

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The best capital allocators don’t avoid bridge risk entirely. They understand it better than the crowd.

Hidden alpha appears when:

1. Incentives Outpace Perceived Risk

If the market overestimates bridge danger relative to actual security posture, rewards can outweigh downside probability.

This happens especially after a bridge improves audits, decentralizes validators, or hardens architecture—but sentiment hasn’t caught up.

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2. Liquidity Migration Cycles

Early capital into emerging chains captures boosted emissions before APY compresses.

Bridging early (but intelligently) often yields exponential returns relative to late entrants.

3. Arbitrage Between Trust Assumptions

Not all bridges are equal. Some are fully trust-minimized. Others are closer to custodial wrappers.

Understanding architectural differences creates opportunity when markets price them similarly.

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Knowledge asymmetry = alpha.

Practical Risk Framework Before You Bridge

Before chasing that juicy APY, ask:

  • Who secures this bridge?

  • Has it been audited? By whom?

  • How decentralized is the validator set?

  • What’s the total value locked relative to the security model?

  • What happens if redemption fails?

  • Can I exit quickly under stress?

If you can’t answer those, you’re not yield farming.
You’re gambling.

Strategic Approach to Bridging for Yield

Instead of going all-in:

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  • Size positions based on bridge trust assumptions.

  • Diversify across multiple bridging solutions.

  • Avoid compounding unrealized bridge risk.

  • Monitor liquidity depth for exit pathways.

  • Treat bridged assets as risk-tiered, not equivalent to native assets.

Professional capital allocators don’t chase APY blindly.
They price systemic exposure.

Final Thought

Bridging is neither inherently reckless nor inherently brilliant.

It’s a tool.

For the uninformed, it amplifies the downside.
For the informed, it amplifies opportunity.

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Yield is rarely “free.”
But when you understand the structural risk beneath the bridge, you stop being the liquidity… and start extracting it.

That’s where the hidden alpha lives.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Shorts Pile Up As $3 billion In Liquidity Sits At $70K

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Cryptocurrencies, Funding, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Derivatives, Financial Derivatives, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Market Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) slid to a weekly low of $64,111 during the New York trading session on Monday, taking out the range lows that were initially set on Sunday evening. Despite the weakness, the price action continues to rotate closely within the three-week range between $65,000 and $71,000.

Derivatives data outlines a clear lack of bearish follow-through for a deeper correction, while the liquidity positioning may frame the next move on the opposite side of the current trading range.

Bitcoin traders may target the upside liquidity next

The recent price drop swept liquidity around $64,000 and liquidated roughly $240 million in long positions. Despite the sell-off, Bitcoin has remained within the established range that has been in place since Feb. 6. A sideways trend often builds pressure for an expansion, especially as the volatility compresses.

Cryptocurrencies, Funding, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Derivatives, Financial Derivatives, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The Bollinger Bands have tightened, signaling reduced volatility and the potential for an expansive move.

The liquidity data shows a clear asymmetry. Roughly $1 billion in long positions face liquidation if the price tags $63,000. In contrast, more than $3.5 billion in short positions are vulnerable near a $70,000 retest. This creates a visible liquidity magnet on both ends of the range, though the concentration is notably denser on the upside.

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Cryptocurrencies, Funding, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Derivatives, Financial Derivatives, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin exchange liquidation map. Source: Coin

Bitcoin open interest, which tracks the total value of outstanding futures contracts, has flattened near the local lows. Traders are not aggressively adding new exposure after the drop, possibly sidelined at the moment.

The funding rates have turned negative on the four-hour chart, meaning that the short sellers are paying the longs. This shift indicates that the positioning has tilted defensively while the price continues to hold the range support, opening the possibility of a short squeeze if the upside liquidity is targeted.

Cryptocurrencies, Funding, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Derivatives, Financial Derivatives, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin price, aggregated open interest, and funding rate. Source: Velo.chart

Trader Lennaert Snyder noted that Bitcoin “finally grabbed the $64,500 liquidity,” adding that reclaiming the $67,751 high may open the door toward $76,971, with partial profit targets along the way. A rejection near that level invites short-term downside toward the range lows.

Related: Bitcoin treasuries log rare selling streak as BTC trades near $66K

BTC may tag $63,000 before recovery

The one-hour chart highlights the order block around $63,000, a zone where the large buyers previously stepped in. The order blocks mark areas of concentrated activity and can act as an inflection point on retests.

Cryptocurrencies, Funding, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Derivatives, Financial Derivatives, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

A brief sweep into the $63,000 region clears the remaining long liquidity and tests that demand zone. If the buyers defend it, the price may rotate back toward the mid-range and potentially the $70,000 resistance cluster.

Meanwhile, TexasWest Capital founder Christopher Inks pointed to the developing bullish relative strength index (RSI) divergence on the daily chart, alongside the rising volume and a wick below the range support.

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A positive daily close above the reclaimed level may strengthen the case for another attempt at the range highs.

Cryptocurrencies, Funding, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Derivatives, Financial Derivatives, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin one-day chart RSI divergence analysis. Source: Christoper Inks/X

Related: Bitcoin traders diverge over BTC price strength with $60K in sight