Is BTC yet to feel real pain during this market cycle?

After a solid multi-day run, the primary cryptocurrency lost momentum again, dipping below $70,000.

Numerous analysts caution that the bears still control the market, expecting much more substantial price declines in the near future.

Where’s the Bottom?

The recent FOMC meeting, and especially Chairman Jerome Powell’s subsequent speech, poured cold water on BTC, which earlier this week touched $76,000 for the first time since the beginning of February.

Recall that America’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive time this year, whereas Powell said the stubborn inflation remains an issue for the local economy. He also outlined the military conflict in Iran, describing the rising price of petrol as another hurdle.

His comments were unfavorable to the cryptocurrency market, whose total capitalization once again slipped below $2.5 trillion. As for Bitcoin, its valuation temporarily fell to as low as $69,500 and currently struggles to remain above that line.

Several analysts have weighed in on BTC’s performance, noting similarities between its recent price action and past cycles. X user Ted pointed out that the current structure closely mirrors the pattern seen in 2022, which ultimately led to a drop to around $16,000. If that historical parallel plays out again, he warned that the price could slip under $50K in the near term.

The analyst who goes by as bee on the social media platform outlined an analogous thesis. They suggested that BTC’s resurgence to nearly $76,000 has been a “fakeout” and bull trap, claiming that “we are still in a bear market” and the valuation could plummet to as low as $46,760 in the coming months. Leshka.eth joined the pessimists’ club, predicting a pullback to almost $53,000 sometime this summer.

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The Bullish Case

However, it’s not all doom and gloom, as some key indicators signal BTC may experience another significant revival soon. For instance, whales snapped up 40,000 units in a matter of a single week, potentially positioning themselves for the next leg up. At the same time, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen strong inflows, suggesting growing institutional demand.

The amount of coins sitting on crypto exchanges should also be mentioned. The figure has been gradually decreasing lately, and earlier today (March 19) dropped to a new six-year low of approximately 2.723 million. This means that many investors continue to abandon centralized platforms and move their holdings to self-custody, thereby reducing immediate selling pressure.

Meanwhile, some analysts, such as Ali Martinez, expect a significant price boom based on the formation of certain setups. Just a few days ago, he noted that BTC’s funding rates have turned negative, and in the past, that has always been a precursor of a “major relief rally.” Martinez reminded that in August 2023, such a development was followed by a whopping 176% price increase for BTC.

Elon Musk has once again taken to X to share a post about Dogecoin, mimicking one of the most famous scenes from the blockbuster movie “The Godfather.”

In a March 19 X post, the X owner and a long-time advocate of the world’s leading meme coin Dogecoin, Musk shared an AI-generated video from the parody X account Sir Doge of the Coin. 

In the video, Musk was seen dressed in a black tuxedo with a Shiba Inu dog while seeming to mimic a famous scene played by Marlon Brando as the character Vito Corleone from the classic movie “The Godfather.”

“You come to me on the day of my doge’s wedding, and you ask me for my private key. Are you even a friend? You don’t even think to call me the dogefather,” the AI-generated avatar of Musk said.

At press time, the video had gained over 18.4 million views, 64,000 likes, and over 6,800 retweets, showing the sheer scale of engagement by the crypto community. 

The tech tycoon has long been known to advocate Dogecoin, with his social media posts on the meme coin historically triggering massive volatility in Dogecoin (DOGE), often referred to as the “Musk Effect.”

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In his past antics, he even once briefly turned the Twitter blue bird logo into the Shiba Inu (Doge) meme for several days. DOGE soared over 30% at the peak of the frenzy. When the logo was changed back three days later, the price dropped by roughly 9%.

However, the most memorable event would be his Saturday Night Live (SNL) Appearance at the peak of the 2021 bull run, where he called himself the “Dogefather” in promos, but jokingly referred to DOGE as a hustle during a sketch. Dogecoin price shot up to an all-time high of $0.73 just before the show. However, it came crashing down nearly 30% to 40% during the broadcast.

This time, Dogecoin’s price has not yet shown any positive momentum following the latest post. Trading at $0.093, the meme coin has fallen over 3.2% as observed at press time. The 10th largest crypto asset in the market has fallen nearly 40% from its year to date high and 87.2% from its all-time high.

Momentum indicators like the MACD and RSI suggest that the meme coin could extend its downtrend, especially since risk-on sentiment is withering amid ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.

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Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

XRP is trying to build a short-term recovery, but the broader trend still leans cautious. The recent bounce has improved momentum on both pairs, yet the price is still trading beneath major trend-defining resistance levels. In other words, sellers are no longer fully in control of the very short term, but buyers have not done enough to claim a real trend reversal either.

 XRP/USDT Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the XRP/USDT chart, the asset has pushed back toward the mid-$1.40s after defending the $1.10 to $1.20 demand zone earlier this month. That rebound matters because it keeps XRP off the lows and lifts RSI back into a healthier range, but the price is still stuck inside the descending structure and below the first major supply band around $1.75 to $1.80.

That leaves XRP in a tricky spot. The current move looks constructive, but it still resembles a relief rally inside a larger downtrend rather than a clean breakout. If buyers can force a reclaim of the $1.75 to $1.80 region, the door opens toward the much heavier $2.40 to $2.50 resistance area. But the price would also need to climb above both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages to reach this area. Until then, the bounce is not decisive.

XRP/BTC 4-Hour Chart

The XRP/BTC pair is telling a similar story. After repeatedly holding the 2,000 sats area, XRP has started to recover a bit and is now pressing back above that support zone. Momentum has improved, and the pair no longer looks as weak as it did during the recent dip, though it is still trading under both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages.

For the BTC pair, the first task is to turn this rebound into follow-through. A push through the 2,100 to 2,200 sats area would be a good start, and lead to a breakout above both key moving averages. But the real test remains higher at 2,400 to 2,500 sats, where layered resistance and the broader downtrend line converge. If XRP gets rejected before that, the market likely falls back into the same sideways-to-bearish range. However, if it breaks through, the tone shifts from simple stabilization to genuine recovery.

Bitcoin has continued to trade in a precarious zone after months of relentless selling pressure from the October 2025 highs above $125K. The asset is currently hovering below $70,000, attempting to stabilize after a dramatic downtrend, but several technical and on-chain signals suggest the battle between buyers and sellers is far from over.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

Looking at the daily timeframe, the broader picture remains firmly bearish. BTC has been trapped inside a descending channel since its peak above $125K, printing a consistent series of lower highs and lower lows. The asset is now trading well below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which are acting as dynamic resistance overhead. The 200-day MA sits around $92K, and the 100-day near $80K, both far above the current price.

The daily RSI has recovered from deeply oversold territory, currently oscillating around the midline. A key horizontal support zone between $58K and $62K (highlighted in blue) held during the February capitulation wick, and that area remains the most critical floor to watch. For any meaningful reversal, however, the market would need to reclaim the $75K–$80K zone, which also aligns with the descending channel’s upper boundary.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

Zooming into the 4-hour chart, a more constructive short-term structure emerges. Since the early February lows near $60K, BTC has been forming an ascending channel pattern with higher lows, supported by a rising trendline. Yet, the price recently tagged the upper resistance near $75K before facing a decisive rejection and pulling back sharply toward $70k.

The area between $74K and $76K has acted as a stubborn supply zone, rejecting multiple attempts to break higher. The 4-hour RSI has also cooled off from overbought conditions and now sits below the 40 level, indicating a change in momentum to relatively bearish. A confirmed break below the rising trendline (~$66K) would likely accelerate selling toward $60K, while a push above $75K could trigger a squeeze toward $80K, and change the market outlook to bullish in the short-term.

On-Chain Analysis

The Exchange Whale Ratio, measuring the proportion of large transactions relative to total exchange inflows, has shown a notable spike in recent weeks. After months of relatively subdued whale activity during the prolonged downtrend, the ratio has jumped sharply from around 0.45 to above 0.6, signaling that large holders are becoming more active on exchanges.

Historically, sharp increases in this metric have coincided with periods of heightened volatility, as whales tend to move coins to exchanges either to sell or to reposition. The current uptick, combined with the price hovering near a technically sensitive zone, suggests that big players are preparing for a decisive move. Whether this translates into distribution (selling) or accumulation at these levels will likely determine BTC’s direction in the coming weeks.

• Bittensor price is trapped between key support and strong resistance levels.
• Momentum is cooling, hinting at either consolidation or a drop.
• A break above $300 or below $250 will decide the next major move.

Bittensor (TAO) had shown strong bullish movement for the better part of the year before hitting a snag on March 16.

That rejection triggered a sharp pullback that erased part of the recent gains.

The cryptocurrency has now entered a tense phase, with analysts trying to determine whether the current weakness is a healthy pause or the start of a deeper decline.

Key technical levels shaping the market

Bittensor is currently trading within a well-defined range that has formed over recent price swings.

The upper boundary sits near the $282 to $300 zone, where multiple attempts to break higher have failed.

This area has consistently acted as a ceiling and has attracted strong selling pressure.

A clean move above $282 would shift the market sentiment quickly, signalling renewed strength and possibly opening the path toward $313.

Beyond that, $357 remains a longer-term target if momentum continues to build.

On the downside, the market has shown repeated reactions around the $250 region.

This level aligns closely with a key Fibonacci retracement zone and has become a critical support area.

Below that, analysts note that $168 stands out as another important level where buyers have previously stepped in.

Accumulation or correction?

The current structure presents two clear possibilities. The first is a controlled pullback that leads into accumulation.

In this scenario, the price stabilises between $230 and $250 as larger participants gradually build positions.

This type of behaviour often appears after strong rallies and helps reset momentum.

The second scenario is a deeper correction that extends below current support levels.

This would indicate that selling pressure is stronger than expected and that buyers are not yet ready to defend higher prices.

A breakdown below $233 would strengthen this view and likely accelerate downside movement.

Market indicators currently suggest that momentum is cooling, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moving down from overbought levels, signalling a loss of upward pressure.

While this does not confirm a trend reversal on its own, it does suggest caution in the short term.

The bigger picture

Despite the recent weakness, Bittensor continues to stand out due to its underlying purpose.

The network is built around rewarding useful artificial intelligence, creating a system where performance determines value.

This gives the project a foundation that is different from many speculative assets.

Price action often moves ahead of fundamentals, and this appears to be one of those moments.

The market is currently adjusting after a strong run, and this adjustment could take time.

However, whether this turns into accumulation or further decline will depend on how the price behaves around key levels in the coming days.

OP_NET said it is launching a “SlowFi” decentralized finance (DeFi) stack on Bitcoin that uses standard Bitcoin transactions and native BTC fees rather than bridges, wrapped assets or a separate gas token.

According to a Thursday release shared with Cointelegraph, the project is part of a broader push to bring trading and yield-style activity directly onto Bitcoin’s base layer instead of routing it through sidechains, bridges or adjacent networks. OP_NET is betting some users will accept slower and more expensive transactions in exchange for staying fully on Bitcoin.

According to OP_NET co-founder Frederic Fosco, who goes by Danny Plainview, applications run through standard Bitcoin (BTC) transactions using Taproot-based spends, while the platform’s NativeSwap model is designed to support token swaps without wrapped BTC or a separate gas asset. Plainview told Cointelegraph that every transaction on OP_NET is “just a Bitcoin transaction with BTC as the only gas asset.”

The launch lands in the middle of a growing fight inside Bitcoin over whether DeFi-style and data-heavy uses of block space strengthen the network’s fee market or amount to spam that crowds out monetary transactions.

Plainview said a swap would typically cost about $1 to $2 under normal fee conditions and roughly $10 to $20 when blocks are congested, because users pay only standard Bitcoin network fees rather than a separate gas token.

OP_NET describes the model as “SlowFi,” arguing that Bitcoin’s roughly 10-minute block times and congestion-driven exit friction can make liquidity stickier and produce longer-lived DeFi cycles than faster chains.

Related: Fireblocks to integrate Stacks for institutional-grade Bitcoin DeFi

Critics say OP_NET brings Ethereum-style DeFi bloat

Plainview framed layer-1 DeFi as a way to support miner revenue as block subsidies decline, arguing that “miners are bleeding” due to Bitcoin’s halving schedule. “The only thing that keeps miners solvent is a fee market,” he said, insisting that OP_NET does not modify Bitcoin consensus.

Related: Animoca, RootstockLabs partner to bring Bitcoin DeFi to Japanese institutions

That view has drawn criticism from Bitcoin users who argue that pushing DeFi-style activity onto layer 1 dilutes Bitcoin’s monetary focus or clogs block space with nonessential transactions. In recent posts on X, some critics described OP_NET as an attempt to bring Ethereum-style crypto infrastructure onto Bitcoin.

Some maximalists argued that any attempt to expand Bitcoin’s use cases beyond money made its proponents “sh*tcoiners” larping as Bitcoiners.

Plainview pushed back, saying that any fee-paying Taproot transaction should be treated as a legitimate use of block space.

He warned that drawing moral lines around valid transactions handed de facto control of Bitcoin to whoever defines those categories. He said:

“The whole point is that nobody controls it.”

OP_NET keeps DeFi on Bitcoin base layer

OP_NET enters a field already populated by earlier attempts to bring programmability to Bitcoin, including through RSK and Stacks. 

RSK operates as a separate Ethereum Virtual Machine-compatible sidechain with its own RBTC gas token and a federated BTC peg, meaning users move value off mainnet and trust a federation to manage the bridge. 

Stacks, by contrast, is a Bitcoin-anchored layer-2 with its own STX token and sBTC mechanism, executing smart contracts on a distinct chain that settles periodically to Bitcoin rather than inside L1 transactions.

By keeping execution and fees directly on Bitcoin and avoiding wrapped BTC or new gas assets, Plainview is betting that some users will accept slower, more expensive transactions in exchange for staying entirely on Bitcoin’s base layer.

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