Analysts are expecting a volatile near-term future for BTC, with some questioning whether new lows are on their way.

Bitcoin went through some intense trading sessions at the end of January and the beginning of February, plunging from over $90,000 to a 15-month low at $60,000 in under ten days. However, it has been rather sluggish since then, mostly trading below $70,000, with little sign of a breakout.

Founder and CIO of MN Fund, Michaël van de Poppe, outlined the recent stagnation, indicating that BTC’s volatility is “the lowest it has been since the crash.” Consequently, he determined that “there’s a big move on the horizon” and outlined his plan for buying or selling.

Sub-$60K or Above $80K?

The volatility on #Bitcoin is the lowest it has been since the crash.

That means; there’s a big move on the horizon.

If we dip, I’ll be a big buyer, for sure.

If we go back upwards, I’ll start taking some profits on a test at $80-85K to be trading the trend.

Volatility is… pic.twitter.com/7Irp4iTzT9

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— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) February 18, 2026

The popular analyst said he would be a “big buyer for sure” if bitcoin dips again. In contrast, he would “start taking some profits” if the cryptocurrency tests the $80,000-$85,000 range.

Merlijn The Trader also weighed in on BTC’s recent performance, highlighting the significance of the current $67,000 level. If lost, the analyst believes $60,000 will come into focus again. His worst-case scenario envisions a massive drop below $50,000 if the February 6 bottom gives in.

BITCOIN IS AT THE CRUX: $67K.

Reclaim $73K the trend repair begins.
Lose $60K liquidity vacuum opens below.

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Next real demand zone:
$48K–$49K (0.618 retrace)

This isn’t volatility.
It’s the market choosing a direction. pic.twitter.com/FQfrBNYrTe

— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) February 18, 2026

Glassnode was slightly less bearish, predicting that bitcoin could drop to as low as $55,000 if the landscape worsens again soon.

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Year of the Metals

Doctor Profit, who has been among the few analysts to predict BTC’s crash below $100,000 at the end of 2025, said the cryptocurrency now trades around 50% lower than its October all-time high. He noted that “it’s bad to lose money, but it’s even worse to lose it in terms of USD.”

The analyst predicted that 2026 will be the year of precious metals, such as gold and silver. Both assets experienced intense volatility in 2026 as well. Gold, for example, skyrocketed to a new all-time high of $5,600/oz in late January before it crumbled to $4,400 days later. It has managed to rebound to $5,000 as of press time.

Silver, on the other hand, exploded to over $120, dumped to $64, and now sits close to $80. Both metals are slightly in the green on a year-to-date scale, while BTC is deep in the red.

XRP price is trading in a tight range as investors await the December Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report, due Friday, Feb. 20. The token’s next move could hinge not just on crypto-specific catalysts, but on broader macroeconomic data that shapes Federal Reserve policy expectations.

The PCE index is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, particularly core PCE, which excludes food and energy and tracks persistent price pressures. November’s PCE and core PCE both came in at 2.8%, surprising to the upside and reinforcing concerns that inflation progress had stalled.

However, fresh data from Truflation suggests cooling pressures.

Its real-time estimates currently place headline PCE at 1.54% and core PCE at 1.94%, well below the official November print. Traders are now watching to see whether the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reflects that cooling trend.

As inflation data directly impacts rate expectations, it also influences risk-sensitive assets like XRP. A softer reading could revive hopes of future rate cuts and support crypto prices, while a hotter print may pressure the market through a stronger dollar and tighter financial conditions.

XRP price analysis: Consolidation after sharp drop

XRP is trading around $1.43 at press time, stabilizing after a steep decline from the early-January high near $2.40. The daily chart shows a clear downtrend marked by lower highs and lower lows.

The recent capitulation candle near $1.20 triggered a strong bounce, but the Ripple token (XRP) has since entered a tight consolidation range between roughly $1.35 and $1.50.

The 9-day moving average (~$1.43) is attempting to flatten, while the 21-day moving average (~$1.47) remains above price and continues sloping downward. This suggests short-term stabilization but a broader bearish structure remains intact.

The Balance of Power (BBP) indicator sits slightly negative at -0.09, indicating sellers still have a marginal edge, though bearish momentum has eased compared to early February’s sharp selloff.

Immediate resistance lies at $1.47, aligning with the 21-day MA. A break above that could open a move toward $1.60. On the downside, key support rests near $1.35, followed by stronger support around $1.20.

With XRP coiling ahead of the PCE release, Friday’s inflation data could act as the catalyst for the next decisive move.

TLDR:

• Roughly 181 Moonwell borrowers on Base lost ~$2.68M due to oracle-driven cbETH liquidations from Feb 14–18, 2026. 
• Moonwell will allocate ~$310,000 from its Apollo Treasury as an immediate pro-rata repayment to all affected borrowers. 
• The remaining ~$2.37M will be repaid gradually through future protocol fees and OEV revenue via Sablier over 12 months. 
• MFAM holders will convert their tokens into stkWELL at a 1:1.5 ratio, consolidating Apollo DAO into Moonwell’s primary governance.

Moonwell has released a recovery proposal addressing unfair liquidations of cbETH collateral between February 14 and 18, 2026.

The incident affected roughly 181 borrowers on Base, resulting in approximately $2.68M in net losses. Protocol behavior tied to MIP-X43, not user error, drove the liquidations.

The plan combines treasury funds with future revenue and includes a transition for MFAM holders into the WELL ecosystem.

cbETH Liquidation Recovery Targets 181 Affected Borrowers

The Moonwell team conducted a full onchain review of all liquidation activity during the incident window. Each borrower’s loss was calculated on a net basis, meaning only realized economic harm qualifies for remediation.

The methodology accounts for all cbETH collateral seized, minus the USD value of debt repaid at the time of liquidation.

The proposal was direct about what caused the harm. “These users trusted Moonwell with their assets and were harmed through no fault of their own,” the post stated.

Crucially, cbETH was repriced at $2,200 per token to correct erroneous oracle values that contributed to the problem. This adjustment ensures that repayments reflect actual market conditions rather than distorted price data.

To begin repayments promptly, approximately $310,000 will be drawn from the Moonwell Apollo Treasury. This amount will be distributed pro-rata to affected borrowers based on their individual calculated losses.

The proposal described this allocation as “an immediate good-faith remediation without jeopardizing protocol stability.”

The remaining balance of roughly $2.37M will be repaid over time through future protocol revenue. This includes net protocol fees and OEV revenue under the current fee split structure.

All repayments will be claimable through Sablier over a 12-month window, after which unclaimed rewards expire.

MFAM Wind-Down Consolidates Apollo DAO Into Moonwell’s Primary Governance

The proposal also addresses the full deprecation of Moonwell on Moonriver, which was completed on January 29, 2026. Chainlink’s decision to sunset oracle feeds on Moonriver forced a gradual reduction of collateral factors. With MIP-R38 passed, all Moonriver markets reached a 0% collateral factor, formally closing the deployment.

As Moonriver operations wind down, the Apollo DAO governed by MFAM will consolidate into the primary Moonwell DAO governed by WELL.

The proposal described the transition as “simplifying governance, aligning incentives, and closing out legacy infrastructure.” MFAM holders will convert their holdings into stkWELL at a 1:1.5 ratio, based on a snapshot taken at proposal submission.

The proposal noted that this conversion brings MFAM holders “direct exposure to Moonwell’s ongoing development on Base and future deployments, while eliminating fragmentation across governance tokens and treasuries.” The MFAM-to-stkWELL conversion will also be claimable for up to 12 months via Sablier.

By addressing both the cbETH incident and the MFAM wind-down together, the proposal aims to close out Moonriver “in a clean, accountable manner.”

The Moonwell DAO will vote separately on treasury allocation, the long-term repayment commitment, and execution authority.

The US CLARITY Act, a highly anticipated bill aimed at providing greater clarity for the US crypto industry, could make it through Congress in just over a month, according to crypto-friendly US Senator Bernie Moreno.

“Hopefully by April,” Moreno told CNBC during an interview at US President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago property in Florida on Wednesday.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong joined Moreno for the interview, explaining that they were with representatives from the crypto, banking and US Congress at the World Liberty Financial (WLF) crypto forum to reach a solution on market structure.

“A path forward” is in sight, says Moreno

“One of the big issues that did come up in the past was this idea of stablecoins on rewards,” Armstrong said. The banking industry previously raised concerns that offering stablecoin yields could undermine traditional banking and shift deposits and interest away from banks.

While Armstrong had issues with the draft bill and withdrew his support for the CLARITY Act in January, he said there is “now a path forward, where we can get a win-win-win outcome here.”

“A win for the crypto industry, a win for the banks, and a win for the American consumer to get President Trump’s crypto agenda through to the finish line, so we can make America the crypto capital of the world,” Armstrong said. 

Armstrong said the crypto exchange previously couldn’t support the bill because it includes provisions that ban interest-bearing stablecoins and position the US Securities and Exchange Commission as the primary regulator of the crypto industry. The White House was reportedly disappointed by Coinbase’s decision to withdraw its support, describing the move as a “unilateral” action that blindsided administration officials.

Moreno admitted that the delay stems from “getting hung up” on the stablecoin rewards, which he said “shouldn’t be part of this equation.”

Crypto prediction platform Polymarket’s odds of the US CLARITY Act passing in 2026 briefly surged to 90% on Wednesday before falling to 72% at the time of publication.

Moreno shuts down idea of a Democrat-led midterm election

Meanwhile, Moreno dismissed the idea that a Democratic takeover of Congress could threaten the bill when asked. “The House isn’t going to go Democrat, and neither is the Senate,” Moreno said.