Analysis of AUD/USD Ahead of Key Data Release

As the AUD/USD chart shows, the Australian dollar posted strong performance in January and February. Since the start of the year, the “Aussie” has gained nearly 6% against the US dollar.

Among the bullish drivers:

→ The policy stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which raised its cash rate to 3.85% in February 2026, while many other central banks are considering rate cuts.

→ A resilient labour market. Australia’s unemployment rate remains at 4.1%, giving the RBA room to keep interest rates elevated.

→ Commodity markets. High prices for gold, iron ore and energy exports continue to support Australia’s trade balance.

However, an important CPI report is due tomorrow. Inflation data could inject additional volatility into the market and test the strength of the Australian dollar.

Technical Analysis of the AUD/USD Chart

In early January, we identified an ascending channel that remained valid through February 2026, as bulls managed to break above resistance line R. Note that:

→ The upper boundary of the channel acted as resistance (resulting in the formation of peaks A–B).
→ The median line served as support.

An important observation is that after forming peak B, the market quickly fell back below the level of peak A. This suggests insufficient buying pressure to sustain the advance.

At the same time, the recent candlestick with a long upper wick — a potential bull trap and a bearish signal — may indicate that the AUD/USD reaction to the CPI report could be negative.

In that case, a break below the channel’s median line cannot be ruled out, opening the way for a test of the psychological 0.7000 level.

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