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Analyst Lays Out Dream Trade

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Could a 4x Rally Follow?


ETH is currently close to the buying zone, but the sell side is miles away.

Ethereum’s ETH is gaining steam on the day after the world’s largest asset manager launched a staked ETH tracking its performance in the US.

The token is currently challenging the $2,100 level after a 3% daily increase, but one popular analyst, who has focused on the longer term, laid out what he called a dream trade for ETH.

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When to Buy and Sell ETH

Ali Martinez, the crypto analyst with nearly 165,000 followers on X, noted in a recent post that the accumulation zone is close by. He believes investors should accumulate the largest altcoin at levels around $1,070. Although the asset slipped below $1,500 last year, it has not traded anywhere near Martinez’s buy target since December 2022, at the end of the bear market.

If investors are indeed able to purchase ETH at these low levels, then the ‘dream’ profit-taking scenario would be at over $8,600. It’s worth noting that the altcoin has never even come close to such peaks. It would have to stage a 300% surge from its current level (or 700% from the accumulation zone) and smash through its 2025 all-time high of almost $5,000 to materialize Martinez’s trade.

Bullish News for ETH

Fellow analyst CW outlined two factors that could propel ETH to new peaks soon. First, they noted that there’s a notable uptick in the Ethereum active addresses, which “indicates bullish market movements.” A similar pattern was visible near the bottom at the aforementioned bear cycle in 2025, and ETH’s price went on a roll in the following months.

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In a separate post, the analyst outlined that Ethereum’s realized capitalization (calculated by the total value of all ETH coins based on the price when they last moved, rather than the current market price) has turned positive again. This, according to their estimations, is a clear signal about “the start of a full-scale bull market.”

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Crypto World

USD/JPY and USD/CAD Continue to Rise Ahead of Key Data Releases

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USD/JPY and USD/CAD Continue to Rise Ahead of Key Data Releases

The US dollar continues to strengthen against major counterparts as markets await important macroeconomic data scheduled for release in the coming hours. Investors are focusing on US GDP figures, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, and Canada’s labour market statistics. These releases could significantly influence expectations regarding the future policy path of the Federal Reserve and set the tone for currency market movements.

The strengthening of the US currency has also been supported by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Over the past 24 hours, the conflict involving Iran, the US, and Israel has intensified, leading to a sharp rise in oil prices and increased demand for safe-haven assets. Reports indicate strikes on tankers in the region, along with conflicting information about the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Rising energy prices and heightened geopolitical risks are supporting the dollar as demand for liquid defensive assets increases. At the same time, market participants remain cautious ahead of key data releases that could alter expectations for interest rates.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair continues to move higher and is trading near its annual highs. Technical analysis suggests the possibility of a downward pullback if the 159.45 level holds as resistance. However, if buyers manage to establish a firm break above this level, the pair could advance towards the 160.20–161.00 range.

Key events for USD/JPY:

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  • today at 14:30 (GMT+2): US GDP
  • today at 14:30 (GMT+2): US Core PCE Price Index
  • today at 16:00 (GMT+2): US Job Openings (JOLTS)

USD/CAD

The USD/CAD pair is also moving higher, although it remains significantly below its yearly highs compared with USD/JPY. Last week, the price found support near 1.3520, where a doji candlestick pattern formed, signalling a potential reversal. The pair is currently consolidating above 1.3600, and if the upward momentum continues, a test of recent highs in the 1.3720–1.3750 range may follow.

Key events for USD/CAD:

  • today at 14:30 (GMT+2): Canada Employment Change
  • today at 14:30 (GMT+2): Canada Unemployment Rate
  • today at 14:30 (GMT+2): Canada Labour Force Participation Rate

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Bitcoin Outperforms Macro Assets in Iran Conflict as $72,000 Returns

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Bitcoin Price, Markets, Market Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) hit eight-day highs into Friday’s Wall Street open as markets awaited key US inflation cues.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin shows resilience despite macro market uncertainty with another push beyond $72,000.

  • Key US inflation data increased the chances of risk-asset volatility to come.

  • BTC price gains outperform macro assets since the start of the Iran conflict.

Trump demands Fed rate cut ahead of PCE print

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD climbing past $72,000 on Bitstamp for the first time since March 5.

Bitcoin Price, Markets, Market Analysis
BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin avoided a sell-off despite global uncertainty over the Middle East conflict and its impact on oil supplies. The week’s macro data prints from the US further conformed to expectations, decreasing the risk of excess market volatility.

Friday was due to see the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index release for January — an important gauge known as the Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation measure.

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The previous PCE print beat anticipated levels to hit its highest since late 2023.

PCE Index % change (screenshot). Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Despite the oil crisis threatening a surge in inflationary forces, US President Donald Trump renewed demands for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to loosen policy.

“Where is the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell, today? He should be dropping Interest Rates, IMMEDIATELY, not waiting for the next meeting,” he wrote in a post on Truth Social.

As Cointelegraph reported, odds of a rate cut at the Fed’s March 18 meeting fell below 1% this week.

Fed target rate probabilities for March 18 FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group FedWatch Tool

”Conviction is building” for Bitcoin bullish breakout

Among Bitcoin market participants, the focus was on price strength amid the macro chaos.

Related: Bitcoin’s ‘extremely precise’ macro signal puts $100K target back in play

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“Bitcoin has remained surprisingly resilient following the recent geopolitical shock,” onchain analytics platform Glassnode summarized in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Week Onchain.”

Glassnode flagged options-market activity showing that traders were less concerned about short-term risk.

“An accumulation cluster is forming in the $62k–$72k range. However, its intensity is modest relative to prior phases that preceded sustained expansions,” it continued in an X post on Thursday while analyzing the cost basis of investors hodling BTC for six months or less. 

“Conviction is building, but the foundation for a mid-term breakout remains thin so far.”

Bitcoin short-term holder cost basis distribution heatmap. Source: Glassnode

Others noted that BTC/USD had outperformed other macro assets since the start of the events in Iran.

“Passing the geopolitical stress test,” Joe Consorti, head of growth at Bitcoin equity company Horizon, commented.

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