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Analyst Warns BTC Dominance Break Will Dictate Whether Alts Explode or Collapse

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Who Really Holds the Most Bitcoin (BTC)?


ETH is up 22% year-on-year while Bitcoin has shed nearly 11% over the same stretch, a divergence that is starting to show up in the charts.

Bitcoin’s market share is stuck between 58% and 60%, which is a six-month trading range that one expert says will decide whether Ethereum and smaller altcoins enter a bullish season or suffer more losses.

As such, the market observer urged keeping an eye on the level at which dominance could break, ushering in the next big move in the crypto market.

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The Narrow Corridor Controlling Crypto’s Fate

Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D), which measures how much of the total cryptocurrency market cap BTC makes up, was stuck between 58% and 60% for the last 6 months. But according to analyst Ash Crypto, this consolidation has created a technical setup where a break above 60% could send dominance up to 63% or 64%.

And if that happened, it would mean that institutions are only buying Bitcoin, causing altcoins to bleed further and pushing the value of the ETH/BTC pair to new lows.

On the other hand, a break below 58% would mean that capital is leaving Bitcoin and going into Ethereum and other altcoins. The analysts said that this would confirm an ETH/BTC breakout above the 0.0320 level, which would mark the start of a genuine altcoin season.

The ETH/BTC pair itself is printing what Ash Crypto described as a bear trap, something it has done twice before.

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“Break above 0.0320 and ETH starts outperforming Bitcoin,” the expert wrote. “Break below 0.0280 and new lows follow.”

At the time of writing, ETH/BTC was trading close to 0.0314, just below the critical threshold Ash Crypto had identified.

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Ethereum’s Technical Picture Gets Interesting

BTC itself has been mostly flat over the past 24 hours, staying just above $74,000 after hitting a six-week high of about $76,000 on Coinbase on Tuesday. However, there’s much more action over longer periods, with the asset up more than 6% in the last seven days and about 8% across 30 days.

Ethereum has had a pretty good performance in the last few weeks, going up about 14% in the last seven days and about 18% in both the last 14 and 30 days. At the time of writing, it was trading above the $2,300 level, up 22% from the same time last year, compared to BTC’s nearly 11% drop in the same period.

At the same time, ETH’s SuperTrend indicator changed from “Sell” to “Buy” for the first time since September 2025. Recall, the last two times that signal showed up, the cryptocurrency rose by 52% and 174%, respectively, prompting analyst Ali Martinez to identify $2,400 and $2,600 as the next levels to watch.

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Crypto World

‘We think we’ve got it”

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'We think we've got it"

U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis, a lawmaker at the center of talks on the crypto industry’s top policy goal to pass a market structure bill, said the talks have probably reached the necessary compromises to move the legislation forward.

“We think we’ve got it,” Lummis, the chairwoman of the Senate Banking Committee’s digital assets subcommittee, said at the Digital Chamber’s DC Blockchain Summit on Wednesday. “We really are going to get it out of the banking committee in April.”

Lummis has been deeply involved in months of talks over the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act language. After the process was derailed by bank lobbyists who’d argued that stablecoin yield would threaten their industry’s deposit accounts, much of the debate centered on stablecoin rewards programs that the crypto industry believed were still allowed under last year’s Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act.

The Wyoming Republican said she believes the final compromise will disallow crypto platforms from offering rewards that use any language that equates them with deposit yield or ties the rewards to the amount of assets a user holds.

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“Anything that sounds like banking product terminology will not appear,” she said. She added that she hasn’t seen the most recent language, but she said that Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has been “really pretty good about being willing to give on this issue.”

Armstrong and his U.S. exchange, which has leaned heavily into stablecoin rewards programs, had opposed an earlier compromise effort, which had initially helped derail the legislative process on this bill.

Senator Bernie Moreno, another Republican on the committee, said in a video statement at the same event that two of his colleagues on the panel, Democrat Angela Alsobrooks and Republican Thom Tillis are in the final stage of the stablecoin talks, which also involves the White House. Once they all sign off, it’s “go time” for the bill.

Previous disagreements over language governing the security of decentralized finance (DeFi) has also been worked out, Lummis said.

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Lummis suggested the legislation will get a hearing after the Senate’s Easter break, pointing to late April. If it does clear such a hearing, known as a markup, that will mark the second necessary committee approval (after the Senate Agriculture Committee had already passed a version earlier this year). Then it gets reworked into a combined version that could eventually face a vote by the overall Senate.

The Senate’s schedule, however, is very much in flux. Both parties are threatening unrelated legislative tussles over other legislation and the war in Iran, which could occupy valuable floor time in the coming weeks. And the Senate’s 2026 session will also be shortened by the midterm congressional elections later in the year.

“We’re going to have this thing done, come hell or high water, before the end of the year,” Lummis said.

UPDATE (March 18, 2026, 15:18 UTC): Adds comments from Senator Bernie Moreno.

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Crypto Ties a Liability in Illinois Primary

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Crypto Ties a Liability in Illinois Primary

Not all voters are sold on crypto, and in Illinois, the crypto industry lobby failed to secure a victory, despite spending millions. 

On Tuesday, Illinois Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton won a primary election for a rare open US Senate seat in her state. She is expected to win in the general election and take the seat of retiring Democratic Senator Dick Durbin.

In the primary, she won over two other candidates, Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi, who currently represents Illinois’ 8th Congressional district, and Representative Robin Kelly from Illinois’ 2nd.     

The crypto lobby spent millions on ads supporting Krishnamoorthi. But ties to the industry may have been more of a liability among progressive voters. 

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“MAGA-backed crypto bros” finance Krishnamoorthi 

In the months leading up to the election, Stratton ran on a progressive platform to oppose US President Donald Trump, and according to the Chicago Sun Times, was the only candidate to openly oppose Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). She also supported a higher minimum wage than Krishnamoorthi or Kelly.

As the primary race got closer, political action committees (PACs), notably Fairshake and Protect Progress, began to pour millions of dollars into the election. 

Their motivations were clear. Ensuring that the industry has another crypto-friendly senator could be crucial as the Senate continues to work on the CLARITY Act. 

Krishamoorthi was a strong supporter of the GENIUS Act, which provided favorable regulations for stablecoins. He also voted for the CLARITY Act and the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act. This earned him an “A” rating with Stand With Crypto, a cryptocurrency advocacy organization tracking legislative records and attitudes. 

Stratton’s campaign drew particular attention to the crypto dollars in the final weeks of the election. The Chicago Sun Times estimated that Fairshake spent over $8 million.

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In a March 3 video posted to X, Stratton said that Krishnamoorthi was “relying on his Trump-aligned allies” to tear her down with millions of dollars in attack ads. “His MAGA-backed crypto bros are dumping $7 million into this race to try to stop me. Illinoisans aren’t buying it,” she wrote.

The connection of crypto with Trump and Republicans more broadly is understandable. Marc Andreesen, one of the founders and major donors to Fairshake, has previously expressed his support for Trump, and said he’d be voting for him in 2024. Trump and his family members are themselves part of crypto investment schemes. 

And the money doesn’t lie. Fairshake is technically non-partisan, but it has spent more in support of Republican candidates. According to Open Secrets, some 62% of its expenditures support Republicans and oppose Democrats, while 37% of its expenditures support Democrats and oppose Republicans.

This didn’t appear to sit well with voters, nor with other officials representing Illinois. Senator Tammy Duckworth claimed that Krishnamoorthi could be “compromised” by industry interests, an idea the representative denied. 

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A 2025 poll found that Illinois voters held largely favorable opinions about cryptocurrencies, but many also supported restrictions. Some 47% of Democratic voters would support “policies restricting the growth of cryptocurrency and blockchain technology.” 

Overall, 36% of Illinois voters “would be more likely to support elected officials who support restrictions on cryptocurrency and blockchain technology.”

Some election observers pointed out that Stratton had taken significant donations from current Illinois Governor JB Pritzker. But one Chicago voter told The Washington Post, “How many billionaires are supporting Raja?” The governor, by contrast, was “supporting his own lieutenant governor. That’s a nonissue for me. He should be doing it.”

Crypto lobby ramps up as midterms approach 

The Illinois primary is just one of many races in which the crypto industry will spend money on ads and other support materials this year. 

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At the end of 2025, Fairshake alone had $190 million in cash on hand, $131 million of which it raised in the last half of the year.

Lawmakers and activists alike are concerned about the undue influence this could have on the midterm election outcomes. Senator Elizabeth Warren, a noted skeptic of the crypto industry, said that the Illinois primary would be “the test case for whether or not they can buy whatever candidate they want for Senate in Illinois and many of the congressional seats.” 

Saurav Ghosh, the director of the Campaign Legal Center, previously told Cointelegraph, “This kind of influence buying ultimately undermines the democratic process by marginalizing everyday Americans, ensuring that their voices and interests take a backseat to the crypto industry’s deregulatory desires.”

Related: Crypto PACs secure massive war chests ahead of US midterms

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The increasing association with crypto, MAGA and Trump could also prove problematic for keeping industry interests in Washington. Trump has negative approval ratings in all but 8 of the 50 states. Republicans are also facing predominant disapproval in the polls. If crypto becomes a byword for a Republican economic agenda, it may not work favorably in the midterms. 

Political operatives have noted that, for the crypto lobby to retain influence, it needs to remain bipartisan. Democratic Representative Sam Liccardo told Politico last year, “I don’t think anybody in this town would recommend that an industry put their eggs in one party’s basket.”

In Congress, there are still a significant number of Democrats who are pro-crypto, or at the very least, not entirely opposed to the blockchain industry.

Filecoin Foundation chair Marta Belcher said, “Many policymakers on both sides of the aisle support crypto. I don’t think crypto is a partisan issue, just like ‘the internet’ isn’t a partisan issue. I don’t think, in 2025, either party can be ‘anti’ an entire technology if they’re thinking seriously about America’s future.”

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