The Solana price has staged a sharp recovery after a steep decline inside a falling channel. After slipping toward the lower part of that structure, SOL found strong support near $67 in early February and rebounded over 30%. The bounce was fueled by dip buying, possibly by the most hopeful crowd.

At first glance, the rebound looks convincing. But the SOL price is still trapped below major resistance, and on-chain data shows mixed conviction. The market now faces a critical test: whether buyers can turn this bounce into a sustained recovery, or whether selling pressure will return and drag the price lower again.

Dip Buyers Defended Key Support Zone

Solana’s rebound began before the price reached the bottom of its falling channel. Instead, buyers stepped in early near the $67 zone, which acted as an internal support level while the price was still sliding lower.

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On February 6, SOL printed a long lower wick on the daily candle near $67. A long lower wick shows that buyers aggressively absorbed selling pressure and rejected lower prices. This type of candle often appears when demand suddenly strengthens during panic phases.

This behavior was reinforced by the Money Flow Index (MFI). MFI combines price and volume to measure whether money is flowing into or out of an asset. Rising MFI during falling prices usually signals dip accumulation.

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Between December 18 and February 6, Solana’s price trended lower, but MFI trended higher. This bullish divergence showed that capital was steadily entering the market despite the downtrend. In simple terms, buyers were active even while the price was falling.

This early defense of $67 prevented Solana from sliding straight to the channel’s lower boundary. It created the base for the 30% rebound. But early dip buying alone is not enough to sustain a trend. To understand whether this support is durable, we need to see who is holding after the bounce.

Long-Term SOL Holders Are Returning, But Conviction Remains Limited

After the dip, attention shifted to long-term investors.

For this, we look at Hodler Net Position Change (30-day). This metric tracks whether wallets holding SOL for more than 155 days are accumulating or distributing. These investors usually provide the backbone of long-term trends.

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On February 6, long-term holders were adding around 1.88 million SOL. By February 8, this figure had risen to roughly 1.97 million SOL. That represents an increase of about 5% in net accumulation.

This shows that conviction holders have started to return after the crash, aligning with the dip buying strength. That is a constructive signal, because sustainable recoveries rarely happen without their participation.

However, the pace remains slow. In strong recovery phases, long-term accumulation usually accelerates rapidly. Here, buying is cautious and incremental. This suggests that investors are testing the rebound rather than fully committing to it.

Because long-term conviction is still developing, the rebound remains vulnerable. That makes the behavior of short-term traders even more important.

Short-Term Selling Has Eased, But Loss Pressure Has Not Cleared

The 1-Day to 1-Week Holder Cohort, which represents highly reactive wallets, began selling into the bounce. On February 7, this group held about 8.32% of the SOL supply. By February 9, that share had fallen to around 5.40%. This is a nearly 35% decline in just two days, as shown by the HODL Waves data.

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This metric segregates SOL wallets based how long coins have been held.

Despite this selling, the price held most of its gains. This shows that dip buyers, possibly the longer-term investors, absorbed the exits. That is a positive sign. However, another risk remains visible in Short-Term Holder NUPL, which measures whether recent buyers are in profit or loss.

On February 6, NUPL dropped to around -0.95, reflecting extreme losses and panic. After the rebound, it improved to roughly -0.70. That is an improvement of about 26%.

Losses have eased, but short-term holders are still deeply underwater. Historically, early NUPL recoveries often lead to unstable bottoms. Losses have eased too early. If price fails to move higher soon, remaining short-term holders may sell again to avoid deeper drawdowns. That could trigger another wave of pressure. This brings the focus back to the price chart.

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Why $96 Will Decide Whether the Solana Price Bounce Survives or Fails

All technical and on-chain signals now converge around the same area.

Since the rebound, Solana has been trapped between roughly $80 and $96. This range reflects hesitation from both buyers and sellers.

As long as the price stays above $80, the rebound remains intact, despite possible short-term selling. But if $80 breaks, the next major zone sits near $67–$64. A loss of that area would reopen the path toward $41, which represents roughly a 50% downside from current levels and aligns with the broader channel projection.

This is the structural risk that still hangs over the market.

On the upside, $96 remains the most important level, the key test. It acted as strong support before the early February breakdown and now functions as major resistance.

A sustained break above $96 would signal renewed confidence. From there, Solana could target $116 and potentially $148. Without reclaiming this level, bounces are likely to stall. Right now, the price is still below this barrier.

Long-term buying is cautious. Short-term losses have eased too early. Until $96 is reclaimed with strong participation, the rebound lacks confirmation.

Chiliz, the sports and fan engagement blockchain, has unveiled a three-phase roadmap outlining how it plans to expand Fan Tokens ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup in the United States. 

The project is making a big return to the US market with new Fan Token launches tied to national teams and broader blockchain expansion. Detailed in its newly released 2030 manifesto, the roadmap positions 2026 as the year Chiliz moves from experimentation to full-scale execution.

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Regulatory Clarity Paves the US Market Re-Entry

The company says it expects to announce its first US Fan Token partnerships in Q1 2026, marking a return after several years of limited activity due to regulatory uncertainty.

In parallel, Chiliz plans to launch Fan Tokens linked to national teams in summer 2026. Unlike club-based tokens, national team Fan Tokens are designed around major tournaments and international competitions. 

With the World Cup approaching, Chiliz is targeting a broader, event-driven fan base beyond traditional club supporters.

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Omnichain Expansion to Unlock DeFi Access

Another major change arriving in 2026 is Chiliz’s move to an omnichain model. Starting in the first quarter, Fan Tokens will be bridged to external blockchains using cross-chain infrastructure.

In simple terms, this allows Fan Tokens to move outside the Chiliz ecosystem and interact with other blockchains. 

The shift is designed to improve liquidity, enable cross-chain trading and arbitrage, and allow Fan Tokens to be used in decentralized finance applications beyond their native network.

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New Tokenomics and Product Upgrades Roll Out Through 2026

In the second quarter of 2026, Chiliz plans to activate a new value-accrual mechanism for its native CHZ token. 

Under the new model, 10% of all Fan Token revenues generated across the ecosystem will be used for ongoing CHZ buybacks. The company says this links CHZ demand directly to fan’s activity.

Product upgrades are also scheduled for mid-2026. 

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Socios.com, the consumer platform behind Fan Tokens, will launch a new version with DeFi wallet integration. 

Later in the year, Chiliz plans to introduce performance-based token mechanics. Match results will directly affect Fan Token supply, with wins triggering token burns and losses leading to new token issuance. 

Beyond 2026, Chiliz’s roadmap shifts toward tokenized real-world assets in sports. From 2027 onward, the company plans to tokenize revenue streams, intellectual property, and other traditionally illiquid sports assets.

The roadmap builds on recent developments across the Chiliz ecosystem, including revenue-linked buyback commitments and a growing focus on infrastructure over short-term price action. 

With the World Cup approaching, Chiliz is betting that Fan Tokens can evolve from engagement tools into a globally traded sports asset class.

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Bitcoin (BTC) pushed back above $71,000 on Monday, after market sentiment indicators across the crypto market dropped to new lows.

Some analysts believed that “extreme fear” and upside liquidity may help Bitcoin hold above its yearly-low at $60,000, but others warned that weak market conditions and bearish futures volume may push prices even lower.

Key takeaways:

• The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to a record low of 7, showing extreme fear in the market.

• More than $5.5 billion in short liquidations above current prices may fuel a rebound.

• Weak price trends and rising derivatives selling may still drag Bitcoin below $60,000.

Sentiment and liquidation suggeset $60,000 remains support

MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe said Bitcoin is flashing sentiment readings that have previously marked market bottoms. According to Van De Poppe, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index had dropped to 5 over the weekend (final recorded reading is 7), its lowest reading in history, while the daily relative strength index (RSI) for BTC has fallen to 15, signaling deeply oversold conditions.

These levels were last seen during the 2018 bear market and the March 2020 COVID-19 crash. Van de Poppe said such conditions may allow BTC to exhibit recovery and avoid an immediate retest of the $60,000 level.

CoinGlass data adds to the bullish case. Bitcoin’s liquidation heatmap shows over $5.45 billion in cumulative short liquidations positioned if the price moves roughly $10,000 higher, compared with $2.4 billion in liquidations on a retest of $60,000.

This imbalance suggests that an upward move may trigger forced shorts covering, leading to a BTC rally.

Related: Bitcoin circles $70K as Coinbase Premium sees first green spike in a month

BTC structural weakness keeps downside risks in focus

Data from CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin trading below its 50-day moving average near $87,000, while further below the 200-day moving average around $102,000. This wide gap reflects a corrective or “repricing” phase following the prior rally.

CryptoQuant’s Price Z-Score is also negative at -1.6, indicating BTC is trading below its statistical mean, a sign of selling pressure and trend exhaustion. Such conditions have preceded extended base-building rather than immediate rebounds.

Crypto analyst Darkfost highlighted a growing selling dominance in the derivatives markets. Monthly net taker volume has turned sharply negative at -$272 million on Sunday, while Binance’s taker buy-sell ratio has slipped below 1, signaling a strong selling pressure.

With futures volumes outweighing spot flows at the moment, stronger spot demand is needed to trigger a bullish reaction from BTC.

Adding a longer-term caution, Bitcoin investor Jelle noted that past Bitcoin bear market bottoms formed below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. For the current cycle, that level sits near $57,000, with deeper downside scenarios extending toward $42,000 if history repeats.

Related: Saylor’s Strategy buys $90M in Bitcoin as price trades below cost basis