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Arthur Hayes Deploys Net Liquidity Strategy: Not Buying BTC Now Even If He Has Only $1

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Arthur Hayes Deploys Net Liquidity Strategy: Not Buying BTC Now Even If He Has Only $1

Arthur Hayes has officially stopped buying Bitcoin ($BTC). The BitMEX co-founder says he will not deploy fresh capital until the Federal Reserve explicitly expands the money supply.

With Bitcoin struggling to break resistance, Hayes is tracking a specific “Net Liquidity” metric that suggests the current rally lacks fundamental fuel.

He is waiting for the centralized banking cartel to restart the money printer before chasing the market any higher.

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Why Arthur Hayes Is Slamming the Brakes on Bitcoin

Hayes’s hesitation stems from his Net Liquidity framework, a formula that subtracts the Treasury General Account (TGA) and Reverse Repo (RRP) balances from the Fed’s total balance sheet.

While nominal prices are high, real dollar liquidity has not expanded enough to support a sustained breakout above $90,000. Hayes views the current market as a trap for traders expecting a straight line up.

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“If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin? No. I would wait,” Hayes said on a podcast. He argues that while geopolitical tensions usually drive safe-haven assets, the only thing that truly matters for Macro Crypto cycles is fiat debasement.

This thesis is reinforced by market data showing Bitcoin decoupling from traditional bond yields, a divergence that historically signals impending volatility.

Hayes warns that without an immediate pivot back to Quantitative Easing, the “American war machine” alone cannot sustain asset prices. He believes the market is pricing in liquidity that hasn’t arrived yet. If the Fed refuses to loosen its monetary policy, Hayes predicts the current chop could move downwards.

He is positioning for a scenario where the TGA drains slowly, leaving risk assets starved for capital in the short term. Only when the printing press whirs to life will the Net Liquidity conditions turn green for aggressive accumulation.

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The Levels to Watch for Bitcoin

Bitcoin Price Analysis currently shows a market caught between institutional accumulation and macro exhaustion. Bitcoin is trading under the $90,000 psychological ceiling, a level that has rejected bulls multiple times. Hayes suggests that a failure here could trigger a slide toward $60,000, flushing out late longs.

$60,000 is the level that matters most. If price action breaks below this support, Hayes anticipates a “massive sell-off” driven by cascading liquidations. Concurrently, Wall Street is buying Bitcoin strategically but is not yet invested enough to chase breakouts unconditionally.

Arthur Hayes Deploys Net Liquidity Strategy: Not Buying BTC Now Even If He Has Only $1
Source: TradingView

Conversely, the bull case requires a definitive reclaim of $90,000 on high volume. If spot buyers can push through this resistance, the path to $100,000 opens up quickly, invalidating the bearish liquidity thesis.

Traders looking for confirmation might look at simple math that nailed the last BTC bottom to identify safe entry points if Hayes’ predicted dip materializes.

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If Net Liquidity remains flat, Bitcoin likely ranges sideways or bleeds slowly. But if the Fed is forced to cut rates due to external shocks, the $90,000 cap will likely shatter overnight.

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The post Arthur Hayes Deploys Net Liquidity Strategy: Not Buying BTC Now Even If He Has Only $1 appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Goldman Sachs Takes Lead With $153.8M in XRP ETFs

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TLDR

  • Goldman Sachs disclosed a $153.8 million position in spot XRP ETFs in its Q4 2025 13F filing.
  • The bank holds about 73% of the $211 million reported by the top 30 institutional investors.
  • Goldman Sachs spread its XRP ETF exposure across four issuers to diversify allocation.
  • Spot XRP ETFs have attracted $1.4 billion in net inflows since launching in November 2025.
  • Total assets under management for XRP ETFs reached $1.44 billion by early March 2026.

Goldman Sachs has disclosed a $153.8 million position in spot XRP ETFs in its Q4 2025 13F filing. The bank now holds about 73% of the $211 million reported by the top 30 institutions. The filing places Goldman Sachs at the forefront of institutional exposure in the newly launched XRP ETF market.

Goldman Sachs Builds $154 Million Position Across XRP ETFs

Goldman Sachs allocated its XRP ETFs exposure across four separate issuers instead of a single fund. The bank reported about $40 million in the Bitwise XRP ETF and $38 million each in the Franklin XRP Trust and Grayscale XRP ETF. It also disclosed roughly $36 million in the 21Shares XRP ETF.

This structure shows a diversified allocation within the same asset class. The XRP position forms part of a wider $2.3 billion crypto ETF portfolio. That portfolio includes $1.1 billion in Bitcoin ETFs and $1 billion in Ethereum ETFs.

Millennium Management ranked second with $23.1 million in disclosed XRP ETF holdings. However, its position is less than one-sixth of Goldman Sachs’ exposure. As a result, Goldman holds the dominant institutional share based on current filings.

XRP ETFs Record $1.4 Billion Inflows Since Launch

Spot XRP ETFs began trading in November 2025 after the SEC resolved its lawsuit against Ripple in August. Since launch, the funds have attracted $1.4 billion in net inflows. Total assets under management reached $1.44 billion by early March 2026.

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The ETFs recorded net outflows on only nine trading days during that period. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart said, “About 84% of XRP ETF assets sit with retail investors.” Eric Balchunas also stated that most holders fall below the 13F reporting threshold.

Standard Chartered revised its XRP price target to $2.80. The bank’s forecast implies close to 100% upside from recent levels. Broader institutional estimates place year-end 2026 projections between $3.00 and $8.00.

Prediction markets currently assign a 67% probability that XRP closes above $1.50 by late March 2026. On the infrastructure side, Binance integrated Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin on the XRP Ledger. The RLUSD stablecoin now carries a market capitalization of $1.59 billion.

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Banks, including SBI Holdings, Santander, and PNC, continue using XRP for cross-border settlements. Monthly transaction flows through these channels exceed $15 billion, according to reported figures. These developments follow the ETF launch and reflect ongoing activity across the XRP ecosystem.

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Bitcoin Sees Modest Relief as US CPI Inflation Avoids Surprises

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Bitcoin Sees Modest Relief as US CPI Inflation Avoids Surprises

Bitcoin (BTC) broke back above $70,000 around Wednesday’s Wall Street open as US inflation data soothed anxious markets.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin bounces around a narrow range as US inflation data offers a modest tailwind.

  • Oil prices stay lower as an emergency release of 400 million barrels is confirmed.

  • BTC price expectations focus on future liquidations in the mid-$60,000 zone.

Bitcoin edges higher as CPI matches expectations

Data from TradingView showed BTC price action eking out modest gains, while failing to match local highs from the day prior.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The February print of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) was in line with expectations at 2.4% year-on-year, per data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). 

“Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment,” it confirmed in an official statement.

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US CPI 12-month % change. Source: BLS

This was a relief for risk assets already on edge over geopolitical instability and its potential impact on inflation. The Middle East conflict and global oil supply squeeze, however, were likely only to be truly reflected in March’s inflation data.

“The market will now await March’s data,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter thus wrote in a response on X.

Other recent inflation gauges missed anticipated levels both to the upside and downside, making for a shaky overall picture of inflationary forces even before events in Iran.

Oil, a key risk factor for CPI going forward, stayed below the $90 mark on the day as the International Energy Agency (IEA) approved the emergency release of 400 million barrels — the largest such release ever recorded. 

CFDs on WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Trader eyes BTC price “breakout upwards” in March

With price still rangebound, Bitcoin market participants chose not to bet big up or down.

Related: Bitcoin faces ‘highly volatile’ setup as bulls eye return to $80K by month-end

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“Very simple; buy the lower bounds, sell the higher bounds,” trader, analyst, and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe told X followers. 

“I still think we’ll see that breakout upwards in this month to test higher grounds, but if not, I’m a buyer on lower levels.”

BTC/USDT four-hour chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Trader Lennaert Snyder eyed downside liquidity for a potential local low, suggesting that this could come at around $65,000.

Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass put 24-hour crypto market liquidations at $240 million, with short positions accounting for a larger slice of the total.

Crypto liquidation history (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass