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Arthur Hayes predicts AI credit crisis as Bitcoin sounds liquidity alarm

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Arthur Hayes predicts AI credit crisis as Bitcoin sounds liquidity alarm

Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin is signaling that markets are underestimating a coming credit shock.

Summary

  • Arthur Hayes argues Bitcoin is signaling a looming credit shock, citing its sharp drop from $126,000 to $60,000 while the Nasdaq remained relatively stable.
  • He estimates AI-driven job losses among knowledge workers could trigger over $500 billion in consumer and mortgage defaults, potentially hitting U.S. bank equity by 13%.
  • Hayes expects a deflationary phase first, followed by aggressive Federal Reserve money printing, which he believes would ultimately push Bitcoin higher.

In his latest Substack essay, “This Is Fine,” the BitMEX co-founder argues that Bitcoin (BTC) acts as a “global fiat liquidity fire alarm.” Its sharp drop from $126,000 to around $60,000, while the Nasdaq 100 remained relatively stable, reflects tightening dollar liquidity and rising deflation risk.

AI job losses may trigger $500B bank losses, Arthur Hayes says

Hayes links that risk to artificial intelligence. He estimates there are 72.1 million knowledge workers in the U.S., many of whom carry significant consumer debt and mortgages. If AI tools rapidly replace even 20% of those workers, he projects major stress for the banking system.

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Using Federal Reserve data, Hayes calculates roughly $3.76 trillion in bank-held consumer credit, excluding student loans. He also estimates knowledge workers carry an average mortgage balance of about $250,000.

If widespread layoffs occur, he projects $330 billion in consumer credit losses and $227 billion in mortgage losses. After accounting for reserves, that would translate to roughly a 13% hit to U.S. commercial bank equity.

Hayes argues that while the largest “too big to fail” banks may withstand the shock, smaller regional lenders could face severe stress. Lending would tighten, credit would contract, and economic demand would weaken. Markets would first price in deflation before policymakers intervene.

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He points to several early warning signs. Software and SaaS stocks have underperformed broader tech indices. Consumer staples are outperforming discretionary stocks, suggesting households are cutting back. Credit card delinquencies are rising. Meanwhile, gold has strengthened relative to Bitcoin, another sign of defensive positioning.

Despite the near-term risk, Hayes remains structurally bullish on Bitcoin. He argues that deflationary shocks eventually force the Federal Reserve to restart aggressive liquidity programs. Political tensions may delay action, but once banking stress intensifies, he expects policymakers to “print” on a large scale.

Hayes outlines two scenarios. Either Bitcoin’s drop to $60,000 marked the bottom and equities will follow lower before liquidity returns, or Bitcoin could fall further if credit conditions worsen. In both cases, he believes renewed monetary expansion would ultimately push Bitcoin to new highs.

For now, Hayes advises caution and limited leverage. The alarm may be ringing, but he argues the real opportunity comes when the money printer starts again.

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FOMC Minutes Support the Dollar: Yen and Canadian Dollar Retreat

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FOMC Minutes Support the Dollar: Yen and Canadian Dollar Retreat

The dollar strengthened following the release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee, reflecting the regulator’s more hawkish tone. In the document, policymakers highlighted persistent inflationary risks and the need for a cautious approach to any potential policy easing. This reduced expectations of imminent rate cuts and supported demand for the US currency.

At the same time, the market remains focused on upcoming US macroeconomic releases due before the end of the week. Attention is centred on the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, initial jobless claims, trade data, and housing market statistics. These releases could either reinforce the impact of the minutes or partially offset it if the figures come in weaker than expected.

Overall, the dollar has rebounded from support levels after the publication of the minutes. However, the further development of the upward correction in USD/JPY and USD/CAD will depend on incoming data. Market sentiment remains neutral-analytical, as participants assess whether the data will confirm the resilience of the US economy or trigger a deeper dollar correction.

USD/JPY

After testing the support zone near the January lows, USD/JPY has moved into an upward corrective phase. Technical analysis points to the potential for gains towards 155.80–156.30, as a bullish engulfing pattern has formed on the daily timeframe. The upside scenario would be invalidated by a sustained move below 154.00.

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Key events for USD/JPY:

  • today at 15:20 (GMT+2): speech by FOMC member Bostic;
  • today at 15:30 (GMT+2): Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (US);
  • today at 15:30 (GMT+2): US initial jobless claims.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD has also rebounded from the January lows and formed a bullish reversal pattern. The pair is currently approaching the key resistance level at 1.3700. If buyers manage to secure a firm break above this level in the coming sessions, further gains towards 1.3730–1.3800 are possible. Conversely, a move below 1.3630–1.3590 could open the way for a retest of the 1.3500 area.

Key events for USD/CAD:

  • today at 15:30 (GMT+2): Canada’s trade balance;
  • today at 17:30 (GMT+2): Canadian export data;
  • today at 19:00 (GMT+2): US crude oil inventories.

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ICON Amsterdam Reports Record 2025 Performance and Announces Planned U.S. Expansion for 2026

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ICON Amsterdam Reports Record 2025 Performance and Announces Planned U.S. Expansion for 2026

[PRESS RELEASE – Amsterdam, Netherlands, February 18th, 2026]

ICON Amsterdam today announced that it closed 2025 with its strongest financial performance to date, marking a milestone year following a period of internal restructuring and operational realignment. The company also confirmed that it is preparing to explore expansion into the United States in 2026.

According to the company, 2025 revenue reached record levels compared to prior years. Leadership attributes the performance to refined product focus, tighter inventory management, improved departmental accountability, and strengthened coordination between marketing, operations, and product teams.

The milestone follows a period earlier in the decade marked by rapid scaling, rising costs, and internal coordination challenges that affected cash flow and alignment. In response, the company initiated a structured operational review instead of continuing accelerated expansion.

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As part of this process, ICON updated its performance tracking systems, clarified departmental responsibilities, and introduced standardized operating procedures to support more consistent execution. According to leadership, the company adjusted its growth strategy to prioritize operational stability and the development of repeatable processes over rapid expansion.

“Growth must be supported by structure,” said Samuel Onuha, Founder of ICON Amsterdam. “The focus over the past two years has been on strengthening the fundamentals of the business.”

In addition to reporting record performance for 2025, ICON confirmed it is evaluating phased entry into the U.S. market in 2026. The company indicated that any expansion would be incremental and aligned with existing operational capacity.

ICON is also preparing for the opening of its first physical retail presence in Amsterdam. While details remain under review, the initiative would represent a transition from a primarily direct-to-consumer model toward a blended retail approach.

Leadership emphasised that the company intends to maintain a measured growth strategy moving forward, prioritising operational discipline and financial sustainability.

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Further updates regarding retail development and international expansion are expected to be shared in 2026.

About ICON Amsterdam

Founded in 2018, ICON Amsterdam is a Netherlands-based direct-to-consumer menswear company focused on modern tailoring and stretch-engineered apparel. The company operates primarily online and serves customers across Europe and international markets. ICON emphasises structured operations, product consistency, and disciplined growth strategy.

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CoinFello Debuts Onchain AI Agent at ETHDenver

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CoinFello Debuts Onchain AI Agent at ETHDenver

[PRESS RELEASE – Denver, Colorado, February 18th, 2026]

CoinFello, an AI agent capable of interacting directly with smart contracts, will be introduced to ETHDenver attendees during the conference’s opening ceremonies. The debut provides attendees with early access to CoinFello through a special preview application called BuffiBot, created by the CoinFello team.

For ETHDenver, CoinFello developed BuffiBot as the event’s official AI assistant for conference information. Attendees can ask about schedules, speakers, workshops, expo vendors, and side events. The experience is accessible through the ETHDenver app and supports both text and real-time voice interactions.

BuffiBot synthesizes ETHDenver’s hundreds of sessions and activities into a single conversational interface. While the ETHDenver deployment highlights a live event use case, CoinFello’s broader functionality extends beyond conference support.

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CoinFello is designed as an AI application for executing and automating interactions with smart contract protocols. Through a chat-based interface, the agent interprets context, executes user-defined intents, and manages both synchronous and asynchronous smart contract actions. The system is built to present smart contract functionality in plain language.

The platform analyzes a user’s wallet history to surface relevant tokens, protocols, and potential actions, reducing reliance on traditional browser-based decentralized applications. CoinFello is also launching as an EIP-8004 agent, enabling it to be called by other AI agents within Ethereum’s emerging agent ecosystem.

CoinFello was founded by JacobC.eth, previously Lead of Operations for MetaMask at ConsenSys. At MetaMask, he helped develop growth and monetization strategies for the Ethereum wallet.

“The previous model for crypto UX is saturated,” said jacobc.eth. “Agentic AI enables onchain execution and DeFi interactions to become accessible to billions of people through familiar and safer user experiences.”

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“We’re pleased to collaborate with the CoinFello team as they bring agent-driven experiences to users through the MetaMask Smart Accounts Kit,” said Ryan McPeck, Product Lead at Consensys for the MetaMask Smart Accounts Kit. “We see a future where AI agents can safely act on behalf of users using granular, transitive permissions that allow individuals to define how activity is executed on-chain.”

ETHDenver attendees will receive exclusive access to CoinFello without joining the public waitlist. Access to CoinFello will continue following the conference, while the BuffiBot experience remains exclusive to ETHDenver.

“ETHDenver has always been where the edges of possibility converge — where builders come to test what the future feels like before the rest of the world catches up,” said John Paller, Founder of ETHDenver. “The fusion of decentralized infrastructure and agentic AI signals a new chapter for coordination itself. When humans and autonomous systems co-create in open networks, we expand who can participate and how value is generated. This is the frontier — and it’s unfolding in real time.”

About CoinFello

CoinFello is an AI agent designed to explain, execute, and automate interactions with smart contracts. Built for self-custody, the platform is currently available in private alpha for end users, with developer versions expected soon. CoinFello supports EVM-compatible networks, leverages EigenAI to enable a self-custodied AI environment, and integrates the MetaMask Smart Accounts Kit to provide users with control over their assets.

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Bitcoin, ether, xrp ETFs bleed while Solana bucks outflow trend

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(SoSoValue)

U.S.-listed crypto ETFs are flashing red across the board, with one notable exception.

Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $133.3 million in daily net outflows as of Feb. 18, led by BlackRock’s IBIT, which shed $84.2 million, and Fidelity’s FBTC, which lost $49 million. Total net assets across bitcoin funds stand at $83.6 billion, roughly 6.3% of bitcoin’s market cap, but recent flows suggest institutions are trimming exposure rather than adding on dips.

(SoSoValue)

Ethereum products followed a similar pattern. U.S. ETH spot ETFs recorded $41.8 million in net outflows on the day, with BlackRock’s ETHA losing nearly $30 million. Total net assets across ether funds sit at $11.1 billion, about 4.8% of ETH’s market cap.

The steady bleed comes as ether trades below $2,000 and struggles to build momentum despite broader expectations of rate cuts later this year.

(SoSoValue)

XRP ETFs also slipped into negative territory, posting $2.2 million in daily outflows. Total net assets across XRP funds are just over $1 billion, or roughly 1.2% of XRP’s market cap. Price action in XRP has mirrored the cautious tone, with the token down over 4% on the day.

(SoSoValue)

Solana, however, stood out.

U.S. SOL spot ETFs recorded $2.4 million in net inflows, pushing cumulative inflows to nearly $880 million. Bitwise’s BSOL led with $1.5 million in fresh capital. While modest in absolute terms, the inflow contrasts sharply with the broader risk-off positioning across bitcoin and ether products.

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(SoSoValue)

Elsewhere, smaller altcoin ETFs such as LINK saw marginal inflows, but the overall picture remains one of selective exposure rather than broad-based accumulation.

The divergence suggests investors are rotating within crypto rather than exiting entirely. With macroeconomic uncertainty lingering and the dollar firming, ETF flows offer a real-time read on where institutional conviction remains and where it is fading.

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Warren Urges Fed And Treasury To Reject Crypto Bailout

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Warren Urges Fed And Treasury To Reject Crypto Bailout

Senate Banking Committee ranking member Elizabeth Warren has reportedly sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, urging them not to bail out “cryptocurrency billionaires” with taxpayer dollars. 

Warren warned that any potential bailout “would be deeply unpopular to transfer wealth from American taxpayers to cryptocurrency billionaires,” adding that it could also “directly enrich President Trump and his family’s cryptocurrency company, World Liberty Financial, according to CNBC.

The letter comes as Bitcoin (BTC) prices have fallen more than 50% from their all-time high in October, hitting a local low of $60,000 on Feb. 6.

The letter also came on the same day that World Liberty Financial hosted its first “World Liberty Forum” for crypto executives and pro-industry policymakers at the President’s private Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida.

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The US government is retaining seized Bitcoin  

Senator Warren also referenced the Financial Stability Oversight Council’s Annual Report hearing on Feb. 4, during which Secretary Bessent was asked about his authority to bail out the crypto industry.

During the hearing, Congressman Brad Sherman asked Bessent if the Treasury Department “has the authority to bail out Bitcoin?” or instruct banks to buy Bitcoin or Trumpcoin (TRUMP). 

A bemused Bessent asked for clarification on the question, stating that “within the context of asset diversification within banks, they could hold many assets.”

Related: Senators ask Bessent to probe $500M UAE stake in Trump-linked WLFI

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Sherman also expressed concern that US tax dollars might be invested in crypto assets. “Why would a private bank be your tax dollars?” asked the Treasury secretary.

Bessent confirmed that “we are retaining seized Bitcoin,” which is not tax money, but an “asset of the US government.”  

Senator Warren claims response was deflection

Warren saw the exchange differently, stating in her letter that Bessent “deflected.” 

“It’s deeply unclear what, if any, plans the US government currently has to intervene in the current Bitcoin selloff,” she wrote. 

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“Ultimately, any government intervention to stabilize Bitcoin would disproportionately benefit crypto billionaires.” 

“Your agencies must refrain from propping up Bitcoin and transferring wealth from taxpayers to crypto billionaires through direct purchases, guarantees, or liquidity facilities,” the letter reportedly stated. 

Cointelegraph reached out to Warren and the Treasury for comment, but did not receive an immediate response. A Federal Reserve spokesman confirmed they had received the letter but declined to comment. 

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