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Arthur Hayes predicts Hyperliquid’s HYPE will hit $150 by August

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Crypto Breaking News

Hyperliquid’s (CRYPTO: HYPE) token has emerged as a flashpoint for traders watching how decentralized derivatives platforms can redraw liquidity away from traditional venues. In a post published on Monday on Cryptohayes Substack, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes laid out a bull case in which the project could reach as high as $150 by August, contingent on a sustained rotation of derivatives volume from centralized exchanges to crypto-native venues and a broader expansion of Hyperliquid’s product lineup. The core premise rests on a rapid lift in the platform’s 30-day annualized revenue run rate—from about $843 million in March to $1.40 billion by August—fueled in part by the company reinvesting a large share of its earnings into HYPE token buybacks. This framework sits at the intersection of macro asset demand and crypto-native execution, with HIP-3 mechanics and new listings shaping the potential trajectory.

Key takeaways

  • The CEX-to-DEX rotation is central to the bull case: Hyperliquid has already absorbed roughly 6% of centralized-exchange derivatives volume as of March, and Hayes estimates a further gain of about 3.96 percentage points if growth continues.
  • Revenue momentum matters: the target rise from $843 million in March to $1.40 billion by August is the lynchpin for the projected upside toward $150 per HYPE.
  • Tokenomics as a price driver: about 97% of Hyperliquid’s revenue is used to repurchase HYPE on the open market, creating a feedback loop where rising activity supports the token’s price strength.
  • HIP-3 expands the product map: the mechanism enables permissionless perpetual markets by staking HYPE, with new listings tied to oil, gold, silver, and major US indices gaining traction and contributing to revenue growth (nearly 10% of total revenue).
  • Oil and macro assets as catalysts: oil-linked perpetuals have become top-traded pairs, indicating traders are diversifying beyond crypto into macro assets via the platform.

Tickers mentioned: $HYPE, $ETH

Sentiment: Bullish

Price impact: Positive. The thesis hinges on sustained liquidity growth and ongoing macro-asset demand, which could lift HYPE if the revenue-and-volume trajectory proves durable.

Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. The scenario depends on continued platform expansion and macro liquidity, which are not guaranteed, but the structure suggests potential upside if momentum persists.

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Market context: The analysis sits within a broader pattern of crypto-native venues absorbing traditional-asset trading activity, as liquidity seeks alternative venues amid macro volatility and evolving regulatory considerations affecting derivatives and tokenomics.

Why it matters

Hyperliquid’s bull case rests on a deliberate strategy: move more derivatives activity away from centralized exchanges to a DEX-like platform, and reinvest most revenue into the native token to reinforce upside incentives. If the platform sustains its growth trajectory, the implications extend beyond a single token. It would signal a shifting landscape where specialized crypto-native marketplaces become primary venues for macro-trading strategies—expanding liquidity pools, attracting institutional-like flows, and intensifying price discovery for digital assets linked to traditional markets. The emphasis on HIP-3, which enables permissionless perpetual markets by staking HYPE, could diversify the platform’s revenue streams and reduce reliance on pure crypto volatility, aligning more with real-world assets such as oil and precious metals.

The oil-and-commodity angle underscores a broader narrative: as geopolitical tensions affect traditional markets, traders increasingly view crypto-native venues as hedges or proxies for macro exposures. In Hyperliquid’s case, the CL-USDC perpetual pair has spiked to the top of the platform’s volume rankings, signaling a meaningful tilt toward macro-asset liquidity within a crypto framework. This shift could alter correlation dynamics across digital and traditional markets, inviting investors to reevaluate risk budgets and correlation assumptions. Yet the track record of outsized calls by Hayes—some of which did not materialize—serves as a sober reminder that macro-driven theses can unravel quickly if liquidity conditions relax or if platform execution stalls.

The takeaway for users and builders is quantitative rather than rhetorical: a successful CEX-to-DEX migration and stronger macro-asset liquidity on a platform like Hyperliquid could redefine the risk-reward calculus for derivatives activity in crypto. On the other hand, token unlocks and shifts in market sentiment remain meaningful headwinds that investors must monitor alongside regulatory developments and macro policy shifts. The evolving HIP-3 ecosystem will be a critical barometer of whether Hyperliquid can translate trading activity into durable revenue growth and, ultimately, into sustained token demand.

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What to watch next

  • Track whether the 30-day annualized revenue run rate reaches the $1.40 billion target by August, and assess how any deviations affect HYPE’s price trajectory.
  • Monitor HIP-3 expansions and new listings tied to macro assets like oil, gold, silver, and major US indices, plus their contribution to quarterly revenue numbers.
  • Watch liquidity metrics on CL-USDC and ETH-USDC to gauge macro-asset demand on Hyperliquid and any shifts in trading preferences between crypto and traditional markets.
  • Observe HYPE’s price action around the neckline near $35.50 and the potential breakout toward $50, with attention to how the 50-day moving average interacts with price development.
  • Check for further commentary from Hayes or Hyperliquid about product expansion, tokenomics changes, or new risk-management features that could influence user adoption and liquidity.

Sources & verification

  • Hayes, Arthur. Post on Cryptohayes Substack outlining a fivefold potential move for HYPE and the CEX-to-DEX rotation. https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/hype-man
  • Hyperliquid price index overview and discussion of HYPE’s price dynamics. https://cointelegraph.com/hyperliquid-price-index
  • HIP-3 revenue impact and market activity data, including commodity listings. https://cointelegraph.com/news/hyperliquid-hip-3-open-interest-hits-793m-on-commodities-surge
  • Oil-linked trading volume context and related macro considerations. https://cointelegraph.com/news/oil-pulls-back-g7-emergency-reserve-hyperliquid-volume
  • Maelstrom’s analysis on HIP-3 revenue contributions and token dynamics. https://cointelegraph.com/news/maelstrom-warns-hype-token-pressure-11-9b-unlocks

Market reaction and key details

Hyperliquid’s bull thesis anchors on shifting derivatives liquidity and a disciplined reinvestment approach. Hayes argues that if the platform can sustain the migration of derivatives volume from centralized exchanges and broaden its product suite, HYPE could traverse a multifold path—from roughly $30 toward targets near $150 by August. The revenue math is explicit: a move from $843 million in March to $1.40 billion in the 30-day window would imply a meaningful acceleration in platform activity, which in turn would support continued token-buyback pressure in the open market. Importantly, Hyperliquid directs the majority of its earnings back into HYPE; about 97% of revenue is used to purchase more of the token. This design creates a price-supporting dynamic that could amplify gains if demand remains resilient and trading volumes hold steady or rise.

The HIP-3 mechanism adds another layer. By staking HYPE, users can launch perpetual markets permissionlessly, and the project has already seen interest in oil, gold, silver, and major US indices. The latest data suggests HIP-3 accounts for roughly 10% of Hyperliquid’s revenue, with proponents expecting revenue growth to accelerate as onboarding of macro assets intensifies. If the macro environment remains conducive and Hyperliquid continues to add tokens and assets to its catalog, the combination of higher volumes and ongoing token buybacks could support a sustained move higher in HYPE. However, the path is not guaranteed; token unlocks from previous periods have historically weighed on price, and investors should factor in the potential for volatility amid shifting liquidity and risk sentiment.

The oil-linked trading—exemplified by CL-USDC—illustrates how macro exposure is translating into crypto-native activity. As the platform reports sustained volumes on commodity pairs, traders appear to be using Hyperliquid as a bridge between traditional markets and crypto risk assets. This trend is reinforced by the growing volume of ETH-USDC pairs, which demonstrates continued appetite for Ethereum-denominated exposure within Hyperliquid’s ecosystem. All told, the story emphasizes a broader trend: the market is increasingly pricing macro dynamics within crypto-native venues as liquidity moves away from conventional order books and toward more specialized, asset-diversified platforms.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Coinbase becomes first major US exchange to win OCC trust.

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Epstein files show crypto ties to Coinbase, Blockstream: DOJ

Coinbase has received conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency for a national trust bank charter — a first for any major U.S. crypto exchange — as community banking groups wasted no time calling the decision a grave mistake.

Summary

  • Coinbase has received conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency for a national trust bank charter, the company confirmed on April 2.
  • The approval positions Coinbase to offer federally regulated digital asset custody services nationwide under a single federal license.
  • Community banking groups have pushed back sharply, with the Independent Community Bankers of America calling the OCC’s direction a “grave mistake.”

Coinbase has received conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency for a national trust bank charter, making it the first major U.S. crypto exchange to clear this specific federal regulatory hurdle. The company confirmed the approval through an April 2 blog post authored by Greg Tusar, Co-CEO of Coinbase Institutional, following a Bloomberg report that first broke the news.

The conditional charter would allow Coinbase to operate a national trust bank focused on digital asset custody and related settlement services. The entity will not accept retail deposits or issue traditional loans — its scope mirrors the structures already granted to Ripple, Circle, Paxos, and BitGo, which received their initial OCC approvals in December 2025. For Coinbase, the practical outcome is significant: a federal trust charter replaces a patchwork of state-level licenses with a single, nationwide regulatory status. It also positions the exchange directly inside the stablecoin custody and settlement infrastructure being built under the GENIUS Act.

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Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal confirmed the news on X, writing: “Consistent rules and regulatory trust are what allow us to innovate with confidence. Today’s conditional @USOCC approval is yet more proof that our approach is working.”

The banking backlash

The approval has not been well received by traditional financial institutions. The Independent Community Bankers of America, which represents thousands of small lenders, described the OCC’s direction as a “grave mistake” in remarks reported by American Banker. The ICBA has repeatedly urged the OCC to pull or revise its crypto charter framework, arguing that digital asset firms are accessing bank-like federal status under lighter regulatory conditions than traditional banks face.

The Bank Policy Institute has gone further, weighing potential legal action against the OCC over what it describes as an improper reinterpretation of federal licensing rules — a possible lawsuit that could delay or complicate final approval for Coinbase and others in the pipeline.

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Institutional and market context

Coinbase’s conditional charter comes as the exchange is already embedded in U.S. institutional crypto infrastructure, serving as custodian for multiple spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Full OCC authorization will require meeting operational, governance, and capital thresholds — the same conditions applied to earlier approvals before they became final. Until then, the conditional status means the charter is approved in principle but not yet operational.

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Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR) Stock Surges on Record Q1 Loan Growth and Token Adoption

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

Key Takeaways

  • FIGR shares advance 4.93% following 113% annual increase in Q1 lending volume

  • Monthly loan activity reaches $1.19B in March, demonstrating accelerating momentum

  • YLDS token circulation expands to $598M, indicating growing platform adoption

  • Available capital from lenders increases 14% as liquidity deepens

  • Democratized Prime data reveals synchronized expansion across borrowers and lenders

Shares of Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR) finished regular trading at $34.51, posting a 4.93% gain following a robust intraday surge and subsequent stabilization. During extended hours, the stock retreated modestly to $34.44, representing a 0.20% decline. The upward movement came after the company disclosed preliminary operating results for March and the first quarter of 2026, revealing substantial growth across multiple business segments.

Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock, FIGR

Lending Platform Volumes Reach New Heights

Figure Technology disclosed impressive performance in its consumer lending marketplace throughout March 2026. The blockchain-powered platform facilitated $1.19 billion in transactions, representing a 33% sequential gain from February activity. Year-over-year comparisons proved even more dramatic, with volumes doubling from March 2025 levels at a 102% growth rate.

First quarter results demonstrated ongoing momentum, with total platform volume hitting $2.9 billion. This figure exceeded the previous quarter by 7% while soaring 113% compared to the same period last year. The data underscores accelerating demand for distributed ledger-based credit origination and secondary market trading capabilities.

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The organization maintains its marketplace operations as a primary revenue generator, offering home equity lines of credit, debt service coverage ratio mortgages, and unsecured consumer loans. Transaction activity through Figure Connect bolstered overall platform engagement. The expanding scope demonstrates the company’s increasing influence within tokenized lending markets.

YLDS Token Achieves Significant Milestone

Figure announced impressive progress for its YLDS offering, which debuted in February 2025. Outstanding tokens reached a valuation of $598 million during March 2026, advancing 2% from the prior month. The metric represents a dramatic escalation from the mere $3 million circulating during March 2025.

First quarter comparisons unveiled even stronger momentum, with YLDS circulation soaring 83% above fourth quarter 2025 levels. This trajectory indicates accelerating acceptance of tokenized credit instruments throughout the platform ecosystem. Furthermore, the expansion reflects increasing confidence in blockchain-enabled financial products among marketplace participants.

The firm characterizes YLDS as unsecured digital certificates collateralized by its affiliated entity’s asset portfolio. Consequently, the instrument enhances liquidity and capital formation across its lending infrastructure. The swift uptake aligns strategically with the organization’s comprehensive asset tokenization initiatives.

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Democratized Prime Platform Records Symmetric Expansion

Figure’s Democratized Prime offering maintained consistent matched transaction levels throughout March 2026. The outstanding balance totaled $368 million, remaining relatively flat versus February figures. Borrower appetite edged higher to $376 million, demonstrating persistent credit demand.

Lender capital availability climbed to $453 million during March, posting a 14% monthly gain. This increase suggests enhanced funding capacity within the platform’s liquidity pools. The system maintains equilibrium between available capital and borrower requirements.

Quarterly comparisons revealed substantial acceleration across all measurements, including a 79% expansion in matched transaction balances. Borrower demand advanced 53%, while lender capital surged 112% compared to the final quarter of 2025. These metrics underscore broadening participation and strengthening liquidity throughout the platform architecture.

 

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Trump fires Pam Bondi, puts pro-crypto Todd Blanche

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Trump fires Pam Bondi, puts pro-crypto Todd Blanche

President Trump has fired Pam Bondi and replaced her with Todd Blanche as interim U.S. Attorney General — handing control of the Justice Department to the official who dismantled the DOJ’s crypto enforcement unit in April 2025 and holds up to $485,000 in personal digital asset holdings.

Summary

  • President Trump has replaced Attorney General Pam Bondi with Todd Blanche, the DOJ official who disbanded the National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team in April 2025.
  • Blanche, now acting AG, holds up to $485,000 in personal crypto holdings and authored the memo ending the DOJ’s regulation-by-prosecution approach to digital assets.
  • The appointment hands the Justice Department’s leadership to one of the most crypto-friendly figures in U.S. federal law enforcement history.

President Trump has fired Pam Bondi and replaced her with Todd Blanche as interim U.S. Attorney General — handing control of the Justice Department to the official who dismantled the DOJ’s crypto enforcement unit in April 2025 and holds up to $485,000 in personal digital asset holdings.

Bondi confirmed her departure in an April 2 post on X, writing that she would be “working tirelessly to transition the office of Attorney General to the amazing Todd Blanche” before moving to an unspecified private sector role. NBC News confirmed that Bondi was fired following growing frustration from the president over her handling of key priorities.

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Blanche is not a new name in the digital asset industry. As Deputy Attorney General, he authored the April 2025 memo that formally disbanded the National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team, declaring in plain language that the DOJ “is not a digital assets regulator” and criticizing the prior administration’s approach as a “reckless strategy of regulation by prosecution.”

The memo directed prosecutors to stop pursuing cases against crypto exchanges, mixers, and offline wallets for end-user behavior, shifting enforcement focus to individuals directly defrauding investors. The decision triggered a swift backlash from Democratic lawmakers, who argued it opened the door to sanctions evasion, drug trafficking, and large-scale financial fraud.

Blanche also holds reported personal crypto exposure of up to $485,000 — a detail that will almost certainly draw scrutiny from Congress as he leads the nation’s top law enforcement agency.

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What changes at the DOJ

Blanche’s elevation to acting AG signals continuity — and likely intensification — of the DOJ’s current posture toward digital asset enforcement. The NCET, which handled major crypto fraud cases and supported cross-border law enforcement coordination, remains disbanded. Its closure, combined with the prior directive to deprioritize structural crypto enforcement, has already reshaped how federal prosecutors approach the space.

With Blanche now at the top, those policy choices become structurally harder to reverse regardless of who eventually takes the permanent AG role. Trump announced the change via Truth Social, describing Blanche as a “very talented and respected Legal Mind.” The White House has not yet specified a timeline for a permanent nomination, with EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin reportedly under consideration.

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US fighter jet shot down over Iran Bitcoin wavers

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Bitcoin investors face ‘harvest now, decrypt later’ quantum threat

A U.S. fighter jet identified as an F-15 was shot down over Iran on April 3, with one crew member rescued and President Trump briefed, adding a sharp new layer of escalation to a conflict that has already pushed Bitcoin down more than 40% from its October 2025 all-time high.

Summary

  • A US fighter jet, identified by CNN analysis as an F-15, was shot down over Iran on April 3, with one crew member rescued, according to sources cited by CNN.
  • The White House confirmed President Trump has been briefed, and Trump posted on X referencing reopening the Strait of Hormuz “with a little more time.”
  • Bitcoin, already trading near $67,000 amid weeks of war-driven pressure, faces renewed downside risk as oil markets prepare to price in the latest escalation.

A U.S. fighter jet identified as an F-15 was shot down over Iran on April 3, with one crew member rescued and President Trump briefed, adding a sharp new layer of escalation to a conflict that has already pushed Bitcoin (BTC) down more than 40% from its October 2025 all-time high. Iranian state media published images of the downed aircraft, which CNN analysis matched to an F-15. The White House press secretary confirmed that “President Trump has been briefed,” with live coverage updated at 1:12 p.m. EDT.

Bitcoin was trading near $67,000 at the time of writing, down modestly on the day. The downed aircraft adds a new variable to an already fragile macro backdrop. As crypto.news has tracked, Bitcoin has repeatedly tested the $65,000–$67,000 range as a support zone during periods of heightened U.S.–Iran tension, with sharper downside reserved for moments of genuine escalation — the initial U.S. strikes sent BTC briefly to $63,000 before markets stabilized.

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The incident lands on Good Friday, with traditional U.S. equity markets closed for the Easter holiday. Oil, already trading above $100 per barrel amid the ongoing Strait of Hormuz closure, could spike sharply when Asian markets open overnight. A sustained move higher in oil would intensify inflation concerns and further reduce the Federal Reserve’s room to cut rates — a combination that has been the dominant headwind for crypto since the conflict began.

Trump’s Hormuz signal

In a separate post on X, Trump suggested the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened “with a little more time” — a statement investors read as leaving space for a negotiated resolution even as military operations continue. As crypto.news reported on April 2, Trump had addressed the nation from the White House describing U.S. forces as nearing the “final stages” of the campaign while warning of continued strikes over the following weeks. The contradiction between active military pressure and diplomatic signaling has kept markets in an uncertain holding pattern. For Bitcoin, any credible de-escalation — particularly one that restores Hormuz shipping and brings oil back below $100 — represents the single most significant potential catalyst for a sustained recovery from the current range.

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BTC USD Price Hanging in The Balance: What is Quantum Computer, and Can Bitcoin Survive it?

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🚨

BTC USD is hovering at the $66,000 – $67,000 price level, caught between a critical support floor and a quantum threat. The question isn’t just whether BTC can hold $66,000. It’s whether Bitcoin’s underlying cryptography survives the next decade of computing power. One risk is measured in weeks. The other, potentially in years. Both are moving faster than the market expects.

Quantum computing, the use of quantum mechanical phenomena to process information exponentially faster than classical computers, has shifted from theoretical threat to active development timeline. Google’s quantum milestones and competing programs from IBM and state-backed labs have reignited debate over Bitcoin’s SHA-256 hashing and elliptic curve cryptography (ECDSA), the two pillars securing every wallet and transaction on the network.

Analysis of Google’s quantum paper found the crypto sector broadly underestimates the asymmetric risk. A sufficiently powerful quantum machine could, in theory, derive private keys from public addresses, rendering cold storage irrelevant. Bitcoin Core developers have acknowledged the long-term threat, with post-quantum cryptography upgrades discussed but no consensus timeline confirmed.

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For now, BTC USD price action is the more immediate variable. Support at $66,000 is the line we should be watching.

Discover: The best pre-launch token sales

Can BTC USD Price Recover Above $78,000, Or Is $50,000 the Next Target?

Bitcoin is sitting at $66,800–$67,000, effectively range-bound with no decisive momentum in either direction. Volume has compressed, a pattern that historically precedes either a sharp breakdown or a relief rally, rarely a slow grind higher.

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The $66,000 level is load-bearing. Analysts flagged it as primary support, with a confirmed close below opening a path toward $50,000, or a 25% drawdown from current levels. On the upside, resistance clusters between $78,000 and $87,000 based on multiple technical models.

BTC USD is hovering at the $66,000 - $67,000 price level, caught between a critical support floor and a quantum threat.
BTC USD, Tradingview

BTC could always hold $66,000, reclaims $70,000 on volume, and momentum builds toward the $78,000 resistance zone ahead of Q2 macro catalysts. But a consolidation between $64,000–$70,000 through April, with direction determined by macro risk appetite and ETF flow data, could also be in play.

For bear, though, a daily close below $66,000 with elevated selling volume targets $58,000–$50,000 — invalidating the near-term recovery thesis entirely is on the wishlist.

Changelly’s April model prices in a potential peak near $78,020, suggesting the bull isn’t unreasonable, but it requires clean price action from here. The quantum threat adds a longer-term overhang that institutional allocators are quietly beginning to model into risk frameworks.

Discover: The best crypto to diversify your portfolio with

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Bitcoin Hyper Targets Early Mover Upside as Bitcoin Tests Key Levels

BTC at $66,739 offers upside, but analyst consensus caps the near-term move at roughly 20% toward $80,000. For traders who’ve already been through the cycle, that’s a reasonable hold. For fresh capital seeking asymmetric exposure, it’s a different calculation entirely.

Bitcoin Hyper is positioning directly at the intersection of Bitcoin’s structural limitations and its quantum-era upgrade needs. The project bills itself as the first-ever Bitcoin Layer 2 with Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) integration, delivering sub-second finality and smart contract capabilities while anchored to Bitcoin’s security model.

The pitch is essentially: Bitcoin’s trust, Solana’s speed, without choosing between them. Addressing Bitcoin’s core bottlenecks, such as slow transactions, high fees, and zero native programmability, is the core use case. The quantum debate only reinforces the argument that Bitcoin’s infrastructure needs to evolve.

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The presale has raised $32,262,965.45 at a current price of $0.013678, with high-APY staking available to early participants. Numbers at that raise level signal genuine demand — though presale projects carry significant execution risk and early pricing does not guarantee post-launch performance.

Traders researching the infrastructure angle can explore Bitcoin Hyper here.

The post BTC USD Price Hanging in The Balance: What is Quantum Computer, and Can Bitcoin Survive it? appeared first on Cryptonews.

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elon musks x deploys crypto scam kill switch

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Inside X Money, Elon Musk’s bid to fuse social media and banking

X is preparing to automatically lock any crypto scam account that mentions cryptocurrency for the first time in its posting history, with Head of Product Nikita Bier saying the measure should eliminate 99% of the economic incentive behind the platform’s most persistent category of fraud.

Summary

  • X Head of Product Nikita Bier confirmed on April 1 that the platform is implementing auto-locking and verification for any crypto scam account that posts about cryptocurrency for the first time in its history.
  • The measure is designed to remove the economic incentive behind scam accounts that hijack or newly weaponize established profiles to promote fraudulent crypto schemes.
  • Bier said the feature should kill 99% of the incentive, and also called out Google for failing to stop phishing emails at the inbox level.

X is preparing to automatically lock any crypto scam account that mentions cryptocurrency for the first time in its posting history, with Head of Product Nikita Bier saying the measure should eliminate 99% of the economic incentive behind the platform’s most persistent category of fraud. Bier confirmed the plan in an April 1 post on X replying to Benjamin White, founder of prediction market Predictfully, who publicly shared his account hack experience after a phishing email disguised as a copyright violation notice stole his credentials.

White’s experience is a textbook example of the attack pattern X is now targeting. His credentials were stolen through a fake login page that captured both his password and two-factor authentication code in real time. The hijacked account was then immediately redirected toward fraudulent crypto promotions — a sequence that has become standard practice among organized scam networks operating on the platform. “Yeah, we’re aware,” Bier wrote in reply. “We are in the process of implementing auto-locking + verification if a user posts about cryptocurrency for the first time in the history of their account. This should kill 99% of the incentive, especially since Google isn’t doing shit to stop the phishing.”

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The scale of the problem

Crypto scams on X have intensified through 2026. In March, on-chain investigator ZachXBT traced a coordinated network of more than ten X accounts that used war-related panic posts to funnel users toward fraudulent crypto schemes, with on-chain evidence showing the cluster earned six figures from the campaign. Earlier in September 2025, X itself disclosed a bribery network in which scammers paid middlemen to reinstate suspended crypto fraud accounts, prompting legal action from the company.

How the feature works — and its limits

The auto-lock mechanism targets a specific and near-universal signature of scam activity: accounts with no prior history of crypto discussion suddenly posting promotional or transactional crypto content. By requiring verification before that first crypto post goes live, X introduces friction at the exact point where hijacked account abuse begins.

The feature does not appear to affect established accounts that already have a history of discussing crypto on the platform. Bier acknowledged that Google’s inaction on phishing emails remains a compounding vulnerability in the broader scam chain — one that X cannot fully control from its end alone.

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Aave V3 Avoided Unrecovered Bad Debt From 2023 to 2025: Study

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Aave V3 Avoided Unrecovered Bad Debt From 2023 to 2025: Study

A Bank of Canada staff paper found that Aave V3 reported zero non-performing loans in 2024, with overcollateralization and automated liquidations helping prevent lender losses in its Ethereum lending market.

Using transaction-level data from Jan. 27, 2023, to May 6, 2025, the study found that positions were typically liquidated before collateral values fell below outstanding debt, helping contain lender losses across the sample.

But the model came with a tradeoff, the paper said. While it protected lenders from unrecovered losses, it also shifted risk onto borrowers and constrained capital efficiency compared with traditional lending systems.

According to the paper, Aave V3’s design relies on automated risk controls rather than traditional underwriting, requiring borrowers to post more collateral than they borrow and liquidating positions when they breach risk thresholds.

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Daily lending earnings, circulating supply, and borrowing volumes (USD) on Aave V3. Source: Bank of Canada

Recursive leverage fueled borrowing demand

According to the paper, Aave V3’s lending activity was not driven solely by users seeking liquidity. It found that recursive leverage accounted for over 20% of total borrowed volume and 8.2% of borrowing transactions during the sample period. 

Recursive leverage involves repeatedly borrowing against collateral, redeploying the borrowed assets as new collateral and borrowing again to amplify exposure.

Related: Aave V4 goes live on Ethereum after governance vote clears rollout

The study said the dynamic made borrowers more exposed when markets turned. According to the paper, liquidations on Aave V3 tended to occur in concentrated waves, with four assets accounting for 90% of total liquidated value. 

This includes Wrapped Ether (WETH), Wrapped Staked Ether (wstETH), Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) and Wrapped eETH (weETH).

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The paper estimated that borrower losses during major liquidation events could be significant. It said liquidation fees typically ranged from 5% to 10% of liquidated value, while missed gains from subsequent price recoveries pushed combined losses to about 10% to 30% in some cases. 

The staff paper suggested that while the design for Aave V3 helped prevent unrecovered bad debt in the sample, it did so by exposing borrowers to abrupt losses when collateral prices fell sharply. 

Cointelegraph reached out to Aave for comment but did not receive a response before publication.

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Magazine: Are DeFi devs liable for the illegal activity of others on their platforms?