Viral “predictive historian” Jiang recasts Bitcoin as a CIA war‑surveillance tool and hinge of U.S. imperial decline, mixing sharp geopolitical reads with conspiratorial leaps.

Beijing-based teacher Jiang Xueqin, the self-styled “predictive historian” who shot to fame for forecasting Donald Trump’s return to the White House and a disastrous U.S.–Iran conflict, is now recasting Bitcoin (BTC) as a tool of American empire and a hinge of a looming new world order. In recent lectures and clips circulating across YouTube, TikTok and X, Jiang argues that the world is witnessing “the end of U.S. imperial overextension” and that the monetary fallout will drive Bitcoin into “a structurally different regime” rather than another cyclical boom. He frames his analysis as “predictive history,” a fusion of structural geopolitics and game theory designed, in his words, to “test models against reality, just like artificial intelligence systems.”

In a widely shared breakdown of his Bitcoin thesis, Jiang claims that the cryptocurrency was not the work of a lone cypherpunk, but a Pentagon project engineered as “the ultimate surveillance technology,” echoing variations of the line that “Bitcoin was created by the CIA and the Deep State.” He tells audiences that Satoshi Nakamoto’s anonymity is “institutionally suspicious,” arguing that only an agency-backed team would have “the time, money, servers, and technical expertise” to deploy a global monetary network. At the same time, he leans on a factual point that mainstream analysts and chain‑forensics firms agree on: Bitcoin’s public ledger enables authorities to trace flows of illicit funds with far more granularity than cash.

Jiang’s crypto worldview is tightly bound to his geopolitical script. In multiple interviews and classroom talks repackaged online, he links U.S. “imperial overreach” in the Persian Gulf to a sequence of events in which military failure accelerates dollar erosion, pushes capital out of Treasuries and into hard assets and ultimately sends Bitcoin “nuclear.” One popular YouTube macro-finance explainer built around his framework describes Bitcoin as “the most liquidity-sensitive asset on the planet,” noting that “every dollar of monetized conflict cost is a dollar that enters the global financial system searching for hard assets with fixed supply,” with Bitcoin’s 21 million cap presented as the end of that chain. In that scenario, the video argues, the Bitcoin cycle is “not driven by the halving” but “by the fiscal response to imperial overextension,” applying Jiang’s method directly to BTC’s trajectory.​​

That framing has resonated with traders already treating Bitcoin as a barometer of war risk. Bloomberg recently reported that “crypto markets are once again serving as the only open window into how traders are pricing the continuing conflict” in Iran, as spot and derivatives flows react in real time to escalation headlines. Bitcoin has traded around the mid‑$60,000 to low‑$70,000 range in March, with some market forecasts projecting a possible move toward roughly $73,000–$79,000 this month while volatility remains high. Even mainstream price coverage now routinely situates BTC within a matrix of war risk, dollar policy and ETF‑driven institutional demand.

Jiang’s rise has been turbocharged by the perception that he “called” both Trump’s 2024 victory and the subsequent U.S.–Iran war, predictions that have been amplified by crypto traders, TikTok creators and even long‑form podcasts. An in‑depth profile notes that his YouTube channel, Predictive History, consists largely of unedited classroom lectures in which he maps great‑power cycles and “world order changes” for Beijing high‑school students. But academic critics and archaeologists have pushed back hard, warning that his method replaces evidence with grand narrative. In a recent debunking video, archaeologist Flint Dibble described Jiang as “a wacko who spreads insanely harmful conspiracy theories,” stressing that “his predictions about the future are mostly not accurate… a broken clock is right twice a day.”​

The same tension defines his Bitcoin work. A detailed breakdown of “Professor Jiang’s Theory on Bitcoin’s Origins” acknowledges that he “mixes verifiable facts with baseless leaps of logic,” conceding that while DARPA did seed the early internet and Bitcoin’s transparency does aid law enforcement, there is “no public evidence linking Bitcoin’s creation to DARPA, the Pentagon, or the CIA.” Instead, Jiang’s narrative slots crypto into a larger story about the end of U.S. hegemony, the rise of a multipolar order and the search for new monetary anchors—a story that is shaping how a growing slice of retail traders interpret every tick in Bitcoin’s price chart, whether or not his “predictive history” ultimately passes its own reality test.

Stablecoin issuer Circle’s (CRCL) shares tumbled on Tuesday, after a draft version of U.S. stablecoin legislation raised concerns about limits on yield.

The stock of the USDC issuer fell as much as 18% in the early U.S. session, snapping a weeks-long rally that saw more than 100% gain. Meanwhile, crypto platform Coinbase (COIN), which shares revenue coming from the stablecoin, dropped about 8%.

The key catalyst behind the move was the latest version of the Clarity Act, as reported by CoinDesk, which would restrict offering rewards on stablecoin balances, analysts pointed out.

“Clarity Act could potentially ban yield payments for simply holding a stablecoin (e.g. passive balances) and restrict any approach that makes the program in any way equivalent to a bank deposit,” said Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev.

According to Dolev’s analysis, a potential ban could reduce the use case for Circle in the near-term, while not paying rewards would reduce the long-term attractiveness of holding USDC on Coinbase’s platform.

Stablecoin yield — whether through onchain lending or platform incentives — has been a big part of the pitch to investors. Taking that away makes it harder for tokens like USDC to evolve beyond simple payments.

“That weakens a key part of the bull case,” said Shay Boloor, chief market strategist at Futurum Equities, arguing it limits USDC’s path toward becoming a true store-of-value product.

The stablecoin-focused GENIUS Act banned issuers from paying yield directly to users, but they’ve built ways to pass through income earned on reserves. Circle collects interest on USDC’s backing assets and shares it with Coinbase, which in turn funds rewards for users.

The latest draft of the Clarity Act targets that structure by banning anything “economically equivalent to interest,” effectively cutting off a key incentive for holding stablecoins, according to Amir Hajian, a digital asset researcher at Keyrock

“It pulls the rug on the pass-through model that has been driving stablecoin adoption,” Hajian said.

There was another development in the background. Tether, issuer of the USDT stablecoin and main rival of Circle, said it has hired one of the ‘Big Four’ accounting firms to conduct a long-promised full audit of its reserves. If successful, the audit could improve USDT’s image among institutional users by demonstrating stronger risk management, potentially eating into USDC’s market share.

Not ‘as bad’

The selloff comes after a strong run, during which Circle shares gained 170% since early February, far outpacing other crypto stocks and the struggling broader stock market. That setup left the stock vulnerable to a sharp pullback on any negative headlines.

Still, analysts aren’t seeing this as an existential crisis.

According to Mizuho’s Dolev, recent outperformance of USDC’s volume means “use cases [for stablecoins] are starting to proliferate, which is a positive for the long-term” for Circle. Meanwhile, Coinbase could see a boost in profitability in the near-term as USDC accounts for about 20% of Coinbase’s revenue, and a large part of it is paid out as rewards.

In fact, Owen Lau, an analyst at Clear Street, said that “the actual situation doesn’t appear to be as bad as the headline indicates. “It looks like an overreaction, but the market tends to shoot first and ask questions later.”

Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at digital asset manager Bitwise, agreed that investors should see past today’s short-term headwinds. Circle is still up more than 30% this year after Tuesday’s drop, and remains a major player in a fast-growing market, he noted. “There will be workarounds,” such as loyalty programs that could replicate similar incentives as yield, Rasmussen said.

“With that in mind, Circle’s long-term outlook has never been better; they hold a 30% share of a market projected to grow 10x over the next four years,” he added.

UPDATE (March 24, 15:46 UTC): Adds analyst comments.

TLDR

• Missouri lawmakers advanced HB 2080 to create a state-managed Crypto Strategic Reserve Fund.
• The bill includes XRP alongside Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and USDC as approved reserve assets.
• The State Treasurer would have authority to buy, hold, and manage digital assets using state funds.
• The legislation requires the Treasurer to hold acquired cryptocurrencies for at least five years.
• Missouri agencies could accept USDC for taxes, fees, and fines with approval from the Department of Revenue.

Missouri lawmakers have moved to create a state-managed crypto reserve that would include XRP. The House Committee Substitute for HB 2080 cleared the Commerce Committee in a 6–2 vote. The proposal now advances with a “Do Pass” recommendation and outlines direct authority for the State Treasurer.

Missouri Advances Bill to Establish Crypto Strategic Reserve Fund

Representative Ben Keathley sponsored HB 2080 to establish a Crypto Strategic Reserve Fund. The House Committee Substitute outlines how the State Treasurer would manage approved digital assets. Lawmakers advanced the measure after a 6–2 committee vote, and no member voiced opposition during hearings.

Under the bill, the Treasurer can buy, hold, and manage selected cryptocurrencies using state funds. The proposal requires the Treasurer to store acquired digital assets for at least five years. After that period, the Treasurer may sell, convert, or allocate holdings based on state strategy.

The fund can also receive digital assets through donations, grants, or transfers from residents and public entities. The legislation authorizes partnerships with third-party custodians to secure state-held assets. It also requires the Treasurer to publish transparency reports every two years.

Lawmakers included compliance measures to restrict transactions tied to foreign or illegal entities. The Department of Revenue would oversee approval for crypto payment systems within state agencies. These provisions aim to ensure oversight while enabling digital asset management.

XRP Included Alongside Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and USDC

HB 2080 lists XRP among the digital assets eligible for state reserve holdings. The bill places XRP alongside Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and USDC in the proposed fund. This classification allows the Treasurer to treat XRP as part of a long-term reserve strategy.

The Treasurer may purchase XRP directly with allocated state funds under the bill. The office may also accept XRP transfers from residents or other government bodies. The legislation frames these holdings as part of a structured reserve plan.

The proposal does not set a fixed dollar cap for XRP acquisitions. Instead, it grants the Treasurer discretion within existing state financial controls. The five-year minimum holding period applies to XRP and other approved assets.

Lawmakers structured the bill to mirror traditional reserve management models. The framework allows conversion or liquidation after the mandatory holding period. Officials must document these actions in the required biennial reports.

The committee vote advanced the bill without recorded public opposition. Representative Keathley stated that the measure supports “long-term financial strategy for the state.” The bill now proceeds through the legislative process for further consideration.

USDC Payments and Federal Digital Asset Reserve Efforts

The legislation also authorizes Missouri agencies to accept USDC for certain payments. Government entities may process USDC for taxes, fees, and fines with Department of Revenue approval. This step integrates stablecoin payments into state systems.

State agencies must follow strict compliance standards when accepting USDC. The bill prohibits transactions involving sanctioned or unlawful entities. Agencies may coordinate with approved custodians to manage payment processing securely.

The measure aligns with broader federal digital asset initiatives announced in 2025. President Donald Trump signed an executive order to establish a national Bitcoin reserve and an altcoin stockpile. Federal authorities continue to work to implement that directive.

Missouri lawmakers now await further legislative action on HB 2080. The bill outlines clear authority for reserve creation and digital asset management. Lawmakers will determine the next procedural steps in the current session.

The Solana Foundation has revealed it has secured Mastercard, Worldpay, and Western Union as early users of its newly launched developer platform, as part of ongoing efforts to attract enterprises to build on its blockchain. 

The Solana Developer Platform (SDP) was announced on Tuesday to enable enterprise developers to build on the blockchain using a unified interface. 

Much of the focus is on real-world asset tokenization, including stablecoins, which is currently a $328 billion market, according to rwa.xyz. More than half of the total value is held on Ethereum; however, with Solana holding 6.3% share of the tokenized real-world asset market.

“The early interest we’ve seen from enterprises and institutions signals strong demand,” said Catherine Gu, the head of product at the Solana Foundation. 

The SDP will initially have three core modules: an issuance module to deploy tokenized real-world assets, a payments module to facilitate fiat and stablecoin flows, and a trading module due later this year that will support atomic swaps, vaults, and onchain forex.

Early users of the SDP include Mastercard for stablecoin settlement, Worldpay for merchant payments and settlement, and Western Union for cross-border payments, said the Solana Foundation. 

Solana’s efforts to attract institutions

Solana invested in making the network enterprise-ready on a technical level with the Alpenglow upgrade in 2025, boosting transaction throughput. Meanwhile, in December, Visa launched USDC (USDC) settlement for US banks on the Solana blockchain.

“The next phase of digital asset innovation will be defined by practical use cases that integrate seamlessly with existing financial systems,” said Raj Dhamodharan, executive vice president, blockchain and digital assets, at Mastercard. 

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Meanwhile, Malcolm Clarke, vice president of digital assets at Western Union, said the SDP is “not a replacement for our network,” but allows it to expand use cases and bring more cross-border activity.

Solana enters a crowded enterprise blockchain space 

Enterprise-grade blockchain solutions are not new, and Solana’s latest platform enters a crowded market. 

The Ethereum ecosystem has several strong offerings targeting the same enterprise audience, including Consensys’ Infura, a scalable API infrastructure powering thousands of decentralized applications.

Consensys also has the Linea layer-2, which is positioning itself as an institutional on-ramp to crypto.  

Coinbase’s Ethereum layer-2 platform Base has modular components for checkout, APIs, and commerce payments that directly compete with SDP’s payments module.

Meanwhile, Ripple’s blockchain offerings, such as XRP Ledger, also primarily target enterprise and financial institutions, as it aims to become the standard for cross-border payments. 

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