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Assassination markets are legal now but Trump doesn’t have to worry

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Assassination markets are legal now but Trump doesn't have to worry

While the world watched with growing consternation as the US and Israel attacked Iran and the Strait of Hormuz was shut down to sea vessels, a financial problem was quietly festering beneath the surface: assassination markets were now legal, and available to almost anyone in the world.

Polymarket hosts a future hellscape

Polymarket, a prediction market platform owned by New York-based company Blockratize, currently has open assassination markets on its website.

They’re easy to find because they’re some of the most heavily traded markets on the platform.

Among these markets are:

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  • Iran leader by end of 2026? (the current Ayatollah is on the list)
  • Will the Iranian regime fall by (numerous dates available to bet on)?
  • Will the Iranian regime survive US military strikes?

Read more: Kalshi uses ‘death carve-out’ to avoid paying out on Ali Khamenei ousting

Despite the death of Ayatollah Khamenei being among the most popular prediction markets, Kalshi, as per its terms and conditions, didn’t pay out when he died. Polymarket, however, did, and half a billion dollars changed hands in the process.

Donald Trump and US politicians noticeably absent

Polymarket seems to purposely avoid including US politicians or the current US president in any possible assassination markets, but the same cannot be said for nearly every other major leader in the world.

For Xi Jinping the platform hosts markets including “China coup attempt before 2027?” and “Xi Jinping out before 2027?”

Markets on Xi Jinping’s ousting or death on Polymarket.

For Putin, a market is available that asks “Putin out as president of Russia by 2026?” and even more markets are available that ask similar questions about Zelenskyy.

Nothing like these assassination markets exist for Donald Trump, who is older and less popular domestically than Xi, Putin, or Zelenskyy.

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While Polymarket could previously have claimed that these markets are only related to these individuals’ political oustings, they can’t any more after paying out on Khamenei’s death.

Markets for Zelenskyy’s ousting or death on Polymarket.

Read more: Polymarket ends trading loophole for bitcoin quants

Why won’t Polymarket list similar markets for Trump?

Though probably obvious to most people, the fact that Polymarket offers no assassination markets on Trump or US politicians is likely nothing to do with moral or ethical concerns.

Rather, it’s almost certainly down to the fact that Polymarket is based in the US, that its founder, Shayne Coplan, is a US citizen, and that Donald Trump Jr. is an advisor to and investor in the company.

Polymarket simply doesn’t want to ruffle any feathers or bite the hand that feeds it.

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In that same vein, the Biden administration had effectively stopped Polymarket from advertising to or onboarding US citizens. These hinderances to the platform’s growth came to end in 2025 thanks to the Trump administration dropping multiple probes into its practices, which could have led to lawsuits and possible criminal prosecutions.

Instead, Polymarket now finds itself at the forefront of a world where leaders of countries have public hits put on them via vague market questions that leave murder open as an interpretation and solution.

Read more: Are Polymarket and Kalshi decentralized?

Can Polymarket be stopped?

Whether or not Polymarket can continue to functionally operate as an assassination market platform remains to be seen.

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While it’s been stopped from operating in specific countries and regions via regulatory actions and lawsuits, such as Ontario, Singapore, Thailand, and Belgium, as long as the US fails to bring criminal prosecutions against the executives offering to host markets for murders, there’s little that can be done.

For the record, platforms like Polymarket deny they list assassination markets, though, as detailed previously, many markets can easily be linked to the deaths of public figures.

Protos reached out to Polymarket with questions about its assassination markets but we’ve yet to receive a response.

So, in the meantime, whose death are we betting on today and what’s the liquidity look like?

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Solana Institutional Adoption Surges with $540M in Spot ETF Investments

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR:

  • Top 30 institutional investors accumulated $540M worth of Solana spot ETFs during the fourth quarter.
  • Electric Capital leads with $137.8M exposure while Goldman Sachs disclosed $107.4M in SOL-linked ETFs.
  • Institutional demand remained stable even as the Solana price declined nearly 30% since Q4.
  • Spot SOL ETFs are enabling regulated exposure for asset managers unable to custody crypto.

Solana institutional adoption is gaining momentum as investors purchased $540 million in spot SOL ETFs during Q4, showing early multi-quarter conviction in the high-performance blockchain.

Institutional Investors Increase Exposure to Solana

Top institutional investors are positioning heavily in Solana through spot ETFs. In Q4, the 30 largest investors accumulated approximately 4.3 million SOL, worth $540 million. 

Electric Capital holds the largest allocation at $137.8 million, followed by Goldman Sachs with $107.4 million.

The presence of traditional financial institutions like Goldman Sachs indicates growing acceptance of Solana beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. Smaller allocations by Morgan Stanley, Citadel Advisors, and VanEck Associates show diversified participation. 

This spread suggests strategic interest across portfolios rather than isolated bets. Unlike earlier cycles where institutions entered altcoins after major retail rallies, Solana is attracting early interest. 

The rapid accumulation suggests these investors are viewing SOL as a multi-quarter or multi-year allocation. ETF exposure allows institutions to gain regulated access while maintaining compliance with internal mandates.

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Resilient Demand and Structural Appeal

Despite a roughly 30% drop in price since Q4, institutional flows have remained steady. This behavior points to fundamental evaluation, focusing on ecosystem growth, developer activity, and network throughput. 

Market corrections have not triggered significant sell-offs, signaling confidence in Solana’s long-term prospects.

Recent price action reinforces this view. SOL dipped to $82 during the past week before quickly recovering to the $88–$89 range. 

The strong support indicates steady accumulation by market participants. Technical patterns suggest a short-term uptrend may continue, aligning with institutional positioning strategies.

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Solana’s scalability and high-performance blockchain infrastructure are key drivers of interest. Low transaction fees and fast throughput support applications like trading systems, payments, and consumer platforms. 

Combined with an expanding ecosystem of decentralized exchanges, NFT platforms, and other applications, Solana presents a compelling option for portfolio diversification.

Spot SOL ETFs further enable access for traditional institutions. These regulated vehicles allow asset managers to gain exposure without direct custody challenges. 

The combination of infrastructure, ecosystem momentum, and ETF accessibility explains why institutions are increasingly incorporating Solana into their portfolios.

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Stablecoins are starting to reshape payments and banking, Macquarie says

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Why a Solana infrastructure firm is moving its servers to win the global crypto trading war

Stablecoins are evolving from a niche crypto trading tool into a potential layer of global financial infrastructure, according to Australian investment bank Macquarie.

While most U.S. dollar-denominated stablecoin activity, mainly in Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC, still comes from crypto trading, accounting for about 90% of volume, the bank said adoption is expanding across payments, remittances, treasury operations and tokenized assets, increasingly linking traditional finance with decentralized finance.

“Stablecoin adoption is making strides in cross-border remittances, but adoption as form of payment still has room to grow, presenting an attractive total addressable market (TAM) opportunity,” analysts led by Paul Golding said in the Monday note.

Regulatory progress is helping drive the shift. The analysts pointed to developments such as the U.S. GENIUS Act, Europe’s MiCA framework and emerging Asia-Pacific regulations as factors pushing stablecoins from speculative uses toward institutional settlement tools.

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Read more: Stablecoin market expands, bitcoin rallies as Iran war panic cools

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a fixed value, typically pegged to the U.S. dollar, and are widely used across digital asset markets for trading, payments and transfers.

Tether’s USDT is the largest stablecoin by market value and trading volume, serving as a key source of liquidity across crypto exchanges, while Circle’s USDC is the second largest and is widely used in institutional and decentralized finance applications. Together, the tokens underpin much of the crypto market’s activity and are increasingly being explored for payments, remittances and settlement.

Stablecoin growth has been rapid. Macquarie estimates the combined market capitalization of major coins at about $312 billion as of March 2026, up roughly 50% year over year and representing about 7%–8% of the total crypto market.

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Transaction activity is rising even faster. Adjusted stablecoin transfer volume reached roughly $11 trillion in 2025, the bank said, suggesting onchain dollars are becoming a meaningful economic tool both within crypto markets and in some real-world payment corridors.

Payments networks and fintech firms are beginning to integrate the technology. The report noted that Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) now support USDC settlement, allowing card obligations to be discharged onchain.

Banks are experimenting with similar systems. Macquarie pointed to initiatives including JPMorgan’s JPMD tokenized deposit product, Citi’s Token Services and tokenized deposit pilots at HSBC as evidence that blockchain-based settlement is gaining traction among large financial institutions.

Read more: Standard Chartered says U.S. regional banks most at risk in $500 billion stablecoin shift

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How Bitcoin ETFs Are Changing Crypto Market Structure and Supply How ETFs Reshape Crypto Markets and Bitcoin Supply Flows

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Crypto Breaking News

Exchange-traded funds have changed how capital reaches crypto markets and how traders find prices. The arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs opened regulated on-ramps. At the same time, a meaningful share of mined Bitcoin sits outside active markets. This report explains how ETFs alter market structure and why the effective Bitcoin float falls well short of 21 million coins.

ETFs Expand Access to Bitcoin Markets

ETFs let investors buy Bitcoin exposure through standard brokerage accounts. This structure removed custody and private-key management for many buyers. Investors then moved capital into familiar products listed on major exchanges.

Chainalysis observed that spot-ETFs drove trading volumes into the billions per day within months of launch.

Regulators and issuers created prospectuses, oversight, and audit requirements for these funds. The SEC approved multiple spot Bitcoin listings in January 2024.

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SEC Chair Gary Gensler noted the agency approved the listing and trading of a number of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products, marking a procedural turning point for market access.

ETFs Change Liquidity and Price Formation

Authorized participants now exchange ETF shares for underlying Bitcoin. This creation/redemption mechanism links ETF flows with spot markets. Market-making firms increased activity to support arbitrage and large block trades.

Major liquidity providers helped narrow spreads and improve execution quality for institutional trades.

At the same time, ETF flows influence daily price discovery. Large inflows can bid prices upward quickly. Conversely, sustained outflows can remove demand and pressure prices. Market observers now monitor ETF net flows as part of standard price analysis. Chainalysis documented large early inflows that matched high daily trading volumes.

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ETFs Drive Institutional Bitcoin Adoption

Asset managers deployed regulated fund structures that appeal to pensions, endowments, and wealth managers. Major issuers launched competing ETFs. Institutions then allocated capital through those products rather than directly holding private keys. This shift created a concentrated pool of institutional demand routed into ETFs. Evidence shows certain ETFs grew to tens of billions in assets in under a year.

Wealth managers and broker-dealers scaled their offering and distribution channels. The result moved sizable blocks of Bitcoin into custodial arrangements under fund sponsors and their partners. This concentration affects how much supply remains available for active trading.

Custody Links Crypto to Traditional Finance

ETF issuers contracted regulated custodians, auditors, and clearing agents. Traditional financial infrastructure now supports large Bitcoin holdings. Institutional custodians apply governance, insurance, and reporting standards that differ from self-custody. These arrangements increase investor confidence and also reduce turnover in those holdings.

Market participants link ETF strategies to futures and options markets. Traders hedge ETF exposure via derivatives, which increases activity on exchanges such as the CME.

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The cross-market linkages changed intraday flow patterns and reduced fragmentation between venues.

Why is a substantial portion of Bitcoin effectively unavailable

On-chain analysis shows a nontrivial share of mined Bitcoin never moves again. Independent research finds that between three and four million BTC likely remain permanently inaccessible.

Analysts attribute these losses to forgotten keys, discarded hardware, and unrecoverable custodial accounts. These coins still exist on the ledger, but holders cannot move them.

Some of the largest examples include early-era addresses that remain dormant. Those coins reduce the usable supply relative to the 21 million cap. As a result, market participants must base liquidity assessments on the effective float, not the theoretical total.

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Long-Term Holding Shrinks Tradable Supply

Beyond permanently lost coins, many holders keep Bitcoin offline for long periods. Long-term holders now control a large portion of the circulating supply. Funds, corporate treasuries, and strategic reserves hold coins for extended horizons.

Analysts estimate U.S. spot ETFs and institutional treasuries together hold over one million BTC, which removes these coins from daily trading pools.

On-chain metrics show older UTXOs grow as new issuance slows after halving events. When holders prefer storage over trading, available liquidity declines. That scarcity amplifies price response to marginal demand.

What This Means for Bitcoin Markets

Taken together, ETF accumulation, institutional treasuries, and lost coins lower the effective supply. Analysts place the usable circulating supply below the raw mined total. Markets now respond to changes in institutional flows more than in prior cycles. This structural change raises the sensitivity of price to net inflows and outflows.

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Regulatory clarity and custody standards helped mainstream ETF adoption. Those same structures increased the proportion of Bitcoin held in long-term, low-turnover accounts. The market, therefore, shows signs of maturing.

Yet price remains sensitive to large fund flows and macro events. Observers should monitor ETF flows, custody reports, and on-chain dormancy metrics to assess liquidity and risk going forward.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Ether Funding Turns Negative, But Bears Remain In Control: Why?

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Ether Funding Turns Negative, But Bears Remain In Control: Why?

Key takeaways:

  • Ether price struggled as investors pulled $225 million from the spot ETFs, and Ethereum staking rewards underperformed compared to stablecoin yields.

  • Recent Ethereum network upgrades and plans for improved wallet security are positives, but fail to kickstart demand for Ether.

Ether (ETH) price has repeatedly failed to sustain levels above $2,100 over the past month, gradually eroding traders’ confidence in the altcoin. Even with a 7% rise between Monday and Tuesday, ETH derivatives metrics suggest a lack of interest in leveraged bullish positions, potentially signaling that bears remain in control.

ETH perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: Laevitas.ch

ETH perpetual futures dipped into negative territory on Tuesday, signaling increased demand for short (bearish) positions. More importantly, this metric has remained below the neutral 6% to 12% range for the past month. Part of this investor disappointment stems from a 54% price decline over six months, even though cooling onchain activity has also played a significant role.

Weekly base layer fees on the Ethereum network averaged $2.3 million over the past month, down from an $8 million peak in early February. While 7-day transaction counts stabilized near 14 million, the current industry focus on layer-2 rollup scalability has so far failed to generate fresh demand for native Ether.

ETH 30-day options delta skew (put-call). Source: Laevitas.ch

Contrary to perpetual futures markets, the ETH options risk gauge hovered near the neutral -6% to +6% range on Tuesday. Put (sell) options traded at a 7% premium relative to call (buy) instruments, suggesting confidence is slowly returning among Ether bulls. Furthermore, no competitor has yet challenged Ethereum’s $56 billion in total value locked (TVL).

Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw $225 million in net outflows between Thursday and Monday, reversing the $169 million in inflows seen on Wednesday. This metric serves as a proxy to institutional demand, which is currently held back by the 2.8% native staking reward rate. By comparison, stablecoin yields on Sky Lending (formerly MakerDAO) sat higher at 3.75%.

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Weak spot ETH ETF demand and concerns with Ethereum’s roadmap

Excitement surrounding the ETF staking approval in the US, which occurred in late 2025, has not yet translated into sustainable demand. One could argue that the negative outcome was simply a result of bad luck, as the launch coincided with a broader crypto market downturn that began in early October after total market capitalization neared a $4 trillion all-time high.

Related: Was Ethereum ‘ultrasound money’ a mistake? ETH down 65% vs. BTC since pivot

ETH/USD (blue) vs. total crypto capitalization (orange). Source: TradingView

ETH has underperformed the broader cryptocurrency market since October 2025, and there are no signs that a reversal is underway. Investor sentiment is also impaired by a staggering $735 million net loss from the Ethereum treasury firm Sharplink (SBET US) in 2025. The company, chaired by Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin, released these financial results on Monday.

The pace of native chain scalability might have contributed to Ether’s negative performance. For instance, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin said on Saturday that account abstraction, equivalent to smart accounts, will likely be shipped “within a year,” after more than a decade under development. Transactions will be able to reference each other’s data, enabling quantum-resistant wallets.

Another advantage of the upcoming Ethereum Hegota fork is paying gas fees in non-ETH tokens using special-purpose decentralized exchanges, while adding a “general-purpose public mempool” and removing “public broadcasters” in privacy platforms such as Railgun and Tornado Cash. Buterin also said that he expects “progressive decreases” of slot time and finality time in the long term.

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Overall, ETH derivatives and onchain activity point to low conviction in a bullish breakout above $2,200, but at the same time, there is no indication of worsening conditions or domination from bears.