Short-term holders are currently facing about 24% unrealized losses.

Bitcoin’s short-term holders have continued to realize losses, as on-chain data found sustained selling pressure across most of the past week.

According to the latest analysis by Axel Adler Jr., the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR), a metric that measures whether coins held for less than 155 days are being sold at a profit or loss, remained below the neutral level of 1.0 for seven of the last eight days between March 2 and March 9.

A reading below 1.0 indicates that the cohort is selling at prices lower than their acquisition cost.

Bitcoin’s Weak Hands Are Selling

As of March 9, the intraday average STH SOPR stood at 0.987, and only six out of 35 observed blocks, or about 17%, closed above the 1.0 threshold. The 7-day moving average for the metric remained near 0.992, which further supports the view that loss realization among short-term holders has persisted for several consecutive days rather than appearing as a single isolated event.

During the same period, the metric crossed above 1.0 only once, on March 4, when the price of Bitcoin briefly reached $74,000 before returning to loss-selling territory. The lowest weekly reading occurred on March 6 at 0.979, while March 8 registered 0.991. Both of these instances confirm that most transactions from this cohort were executed below cost basis.

Adler explained that the first clear signal of a change in market conditions would be STH SOPR closing above 1.0 for several consecutive days alongside rising prices.

Capitulation

In addition to the profitability metric, Adler examined changes in terms of the overall supply held by short-term investors. Over the past two weeks, the total volume of coins within the short-term holder cohort declined from approximately 6.06 million BTC to about 5.92 million BTC. This essentially indicated that roughly 140,000 BTC left the cohort.

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Such a reduction reflects either capitulation through realized losses or the natural aging of coins into long-term holder status after surpassing the 155-day holding threshold. At the same time, the cohort’s realized price remained around $89,028, while the market price traded near $67,000 during the period analyzed.

The difference represents an unrealized loss of roughly 24% for the average short-term holder. Adler observed that this gap between the realized price and the current market value creates a structural supply overhang in the market. As prices recover, some short-term investors who purchased at higher levels may use rallies as opportunities to exit positions without losses, and would potentially add supply and reduce the strength of upward moves.

The combination of the two indicators points to an ongoing “cohort cleansing,” in which the more price-sensitive segment of the market is gradually exiting through selling pressure rather than through a recovery in profitability.

U.S. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana ETFs saw rare same‑day outflows on March 9, but positive weekly flows and steady spot prices point to rotation, not capitulation.

U.S. crypto ETFs flashed a rare warning signal on March 9 as spot products for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana all recorded simultaneous net outflows, even as underlying prices held firm near recent ranges.

ETF flows: risk-on, but defensive

On-chain analytics firm Lookonchain reported that U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw a one-day net outflow of 5,409 BTC, while Ethereum ETFs shed 36,599 ETH and Solana products lost 68,933 SOL, underscoring a sharp but concentrated bout of de-risking across majors. A separate summary of the same dataset framed the move as a short-term shock inside a still-positive weekly trend, noting that “Bitcoin ETFs experienced a one-day net outflow of 5,409 BTC… however, the seven-day net inflow stood at a positive 8,154 BTC,” with Ethereum and Solana showing similar one-day outflows but net inflows over seven days.​

In that analysis, Solana stood out as the most volatile leg of the trade: “Solana ETFs displayed the most dramatic shifts… with a one-day net outflow of 68,933 SOL… Contrarily, the seven-day net inflow reached +266,247 SOL,” a pattern more consistent with fast money rotation than structural capitulation.​

Macro structure: liquidity, not faith

As one ETF strategist put it in the Lookonchain-linked commentary, recent moves “could influence trading strategies, as traders monitor whether these outflows represent profit-taking or a shift in investor confidence amid broader market volatility,” highlighting that desks are treating ETF flows as a real‑time barometer of positioning, not a referendum on the asset class itself.​

Key points:

• Rising oil prices have not hurt crypto sentiment as buyers attempt to push Bitcoin above $69,000

• Buyers are attempting to propel several major altcoins above their overhead resistance levels, indicating demand at lower levels.

A sharp rally in oil prices failed to deter cryptocurrency buyers who pushed Bitcoin (BTC) above $69,000 on Monday. Although the spot BTC exchange-traded funds witnessed outflows on Thursday and Friday, the week saw net inflows of $568.45 million per SoSoValue data.  That was the second successive week of net inflows, a first in five months.

While some analysts believe that BTC may have bottomed out, on-chain analyst Willy Woo said in a post on X that BTC was solidly in the middle of a bear market from a long-range liquidity perspective and was forming a bull trap. 

Usually, when negative news fails to sink the price to a new low in a bearish trend, it suggests that the selling may be drying up. That doesn’t guarantee a sharp rally in the near term, as markets tend to consolidate in a range for a while before starting the next leg higher. 

Could buyers push BTC and major altcoins above their resistance levels? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out. 

S&P 500 Index price prediction

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) closed below the 6,775 level on Friday, indicating that the bears are attempting to take charge.

The moving averages have completed a bearish crossover, and the relative strength index (RSI) has dipped into the negative territory, indicating the path of least resistance is to the downside. The next crucial support to watch out for on the downside is 6,550. If the level cracks, the correction may deepen to 6,147.

Buyers will have to drive the price above the moving averages to signal strength. That improves the prospects of a rally to the 7,290 level.

US Dollar Index price prediction

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is facing resistance near the 99.50 level, but the bulls have kept up the pressure.

The upsloping 20-day exponential moving average (98.17) and the RSI above the 63 level suggest that the bulls are in command. If the price closes above the 99.50 level, the index may retest the critical overhead resistance at the 100.54 level. A close above the 100.54 resistance suggests the start of a new up move.

Sellers will have to tug the price below the moving averages to retain the index inside the 95.50 to 100.54 range.

Bitcoin price prediction

BTC fell below the 20-day EMA ($68,553) on Friday, but the bears could not sink the price below the support line. That suggests demand at lower levels.

If the price maintains above the 20-day EMA, the likelihood of a break above the $74,508 resistance increases. Such a move suggests that the BTC/USDT pair may have bottomed out in the short term. The Bitcoin price may then soar to $84,000, where the bears are expected to mount a strong defense.

This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below the support line. The pair may then drop to the vital support at $60,000.

Ether price prediction

Ether (ETH) broke below the 20-day EMA ($2,018) on Friday, but the bears could not sink the price to the $1,750 level.

That suggests selling dries up at lower levels. The bulls are attempting to push the price back above the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, the ETH/USDT pair may climb to the 50-day SMA ($2,249). Sellers will attempt to halt the relief rally at the 50-day SMA, but if the bulls prevail, the pair may jump to $2,600.

Contrary to this assumption, if the Ether price turns down from the $2,111 level and breaks below $1,916, it signals that the pair may remain inside the range for a while longer.

BNB price prediction

BNB (BNB) fell below the 20-day EMA ($633) on Friday, but the bears could not pull the price to the $570 level.

That attracted buyers who are trying to push the price back above the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, the BNB/USDT pair may retest the overhead resistance at $670. Sellers are expected to fiercely defend the $670 level, as a close above it opens the doors for a rally to $730 and then $790.

Instead, if the BNB price turns down from the current level or the $670 resistance, it suggests that the range-bound action may continue for a few more days. Sellers will have to yank the pair below the $570 level to start the next leg of the downtrend toward $500.

XRP price prediction

XRP (XRP) has been trading just below the 20-day EMA ($1.39) for several days, indicating that the bulls continue to exert pressure.

A close above the 20-day EMA will be the first sign of strength. The XRP/USDT pair may then rally to the $1.61 level and subsequently to the downtrend line of the descending channel pattern. Buyers will have to break and sustain the XRP price above the downtrend line to signal a short-term trend change.

Conversely, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA and breaks below $1.27, it suggests that the bulls have given up. That may sink the pair to the support line, which is likely to attract buyers.

Solana price prediction

Solana (SOL) has been consolidating between $76 and $95 for several days, indicating a balance between supply and demand.

The flattish 20-day EMA ($85) and the RSI just below the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears. 

The next trending move is expected to begin on a close above $95 or below $76. If buyers drive the Solana price above $95, the rally may reach $117. Alternatively, a break and close below $76 suggests that the bears have overpowered the bulls. The SOL/USDT pair may then slump to the Feb. 6 low of $67.

Related: Bitcoin at $67K despite oil shock is ‘strongest indicator’ bottom may be in

Dogecoin price prediction

Dogecoin (DOGE) fell below the $0.09 support on Sunday, but the bears could not sustain the lower levels. The bulls bought the dip and are attempting to reclaim the level.

If the relief rally turns down from the 20-day EMA ($0.09), it suggests that the bears remain in control. That heightens the risk of a drop to Feb. 6 low of $0.08. 

Buyers are likely to have other plans. They will attempt to push the Dogecoin price above the moving averages. If they can pull it off, the DOGE/USDT pair may surge to the breakdown level of $0.12. Buyers will have to achieve a close above the $0.12 resistance to suggest that the pair may have bottomed out at $0.08.

Cardano price prediction

Cardano (ADA) slipped below the $0.25 support on Sunday, but the bears are struggling to sustain the lower levels.

The bulls will attempt a recovery, which is expected to face selling at the 20-day EMA ($0.27). If the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, the bears will strive to sink the ADA/USDT pair to the support line of the descending channel pattern. If the Cardano price rebounds off the support line with strength, it suggests that the pair may remain inside the channel for some more time.

The bulls will have to drive and maintain the price above the downtrend line to signal a potential short-term trend change.

Bitcoin Cash price prediction

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has been witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears at the $443 level.

The bulls are attempting a relief rally, but the bears are likely to halt any recovery attempt at the 20-day EMA ($478). If the Bitcoin Cash price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, it increases the likelihood of a break below the $443 level. 

If that happens, the BCH/USDT pair will complete a bearish head-and-shoulder pattern. That may start a downward move to $375.

Contrarily, a close above the 20-day EMA suggests that the selling pressure is reducing. The pair may then rally to the 50-day SMA ($525).