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AVAX price nears $10 as Grayscale Avalanche ETF goes live

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AVAX price eyes breakout above $10 as Grayscale Avalanche ETF goes live - 1

AVAX price hovered near a key level on Thursday as the market reacted to the launch of a new exchange-traded fund tied to the token.

Summary

  • AVAX traded near the top of its weekly range as Grayscale’s Avalanche ETF started trading.
  • The new product gives traditional investors exposure to Avalanche and its staking rewards.
  • Traders are watching the $10 level, which has acted as a strong resistance zone.

At press time, Avalanche (AVAX) traded at $9.58, down about 0.8% over the past 24 hours. The token has moved between $8.82 and $9.87 over the past week and is now close to the top of that range.

AVAX has gained around 8.8% in the past month as buyers try to push the price higher again. Even so, the token is still about 47% lower than it was a year ago, after the long slide that hit much of the crypto market.

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Activity in the derivatives market cooled a bit during the last day. CoinGlass data shows futures volume dropping 26% to $489 million, while open interest slipped 4.41% to $432 million.

When both numbers fall at the same time, it often means some traders are closing positions while others wait for the next move.

Grayscale Avalanche ETF begins trading

The market is reacting to a new product from Grayscale Investments. The firm’s Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF, trading under the ticker GAVA, began trading on March 12 on Nasdaq.

The fund first appeared as the Grayscale Avalanche Trust in August 2024. At that time it was only available through private placement for accredited investors. After a filing with U.S. regulators in 2025, the product was converted into a publicly traded exchange-traded product.

The ETF started trading with a net asset value of $23.33 per share and about $5.55 million in assets under management. It tracks the price of AVAX and also factors in staking rewards earned from the network. Staking on Avalanche returned roughly 7% on average in 2025, which is now reflected in the structure of the fund.

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Products like this often bring new attention to a token because they allow investors to gain exposure through traditional markets. Whether the ETF attracts large inflows will likely determine how much impact it has on AVAX price.

AVAX price technical analysis

On the chart, AVAX is slowly moving toward the $10 mark, which has acted as a strong barrier during previous rallies. The price is now close to the upper Bollinger Band near $9.8–$10, and traders are watching to see if it can push above that area.

AVAX price eyes breakout above $10 as Grayscale Avalanche ETF goes live - 1
AVAX daily chart. Credit: crypto.news

Volatility has been shrinking over the past several days as the Bollinger Bands move closer together. This type of setup often appears before a bigger move once price finally breaks out of the range.

AVAX has also moved back above its 20-day moving average near $9.1–$9.2. That level held during recent pullbacks and buyers stepped in each time the price approached it.

Momentum has improved as well. Slightly above the neutral zone, the relative strength index is currently at 53. Since the indicator is not yet in overbought territory, price movement is still possible if buying pressure persists. 

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Beginning early February, the chart has also started to show higher lows, a pattern that often appears when buyers slowly build positions.

Support is near $9.10–$9.20, while a deeper pullback could test the $8.40–$8.50 area. For now, the main level traders are focused on remains $10. A clear daily close above that line would be the first strong sign that AVAX may be turning upward after months of decline.

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DeFi Disaster: How Ignoring Slippage Warnings Cost One Trader $50 Million on Aave

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR

  • Extreme slippage on Aave led to a devastating loss of nearly $50 million for one cryptocurrency trader in a single swap transaction.
  • The transaction converted $50.4 million into approximately 327 AAVE tokens valued at just $36,000.
  • The trader acknowledged and bypassed several explicit slippage warnings on mobile before executing the trade.
  • An MEV bot executed a sandwich attack on the same transaction, extracting close to $10 million in profits.
  • The Aave protocol announced plans to refund approximately $600,000 in protocol fees to the impacted trader.

On Thursday, March 12, 2026, a cryptocurrency trader experienced one of the most devastating losses in DeFi history, losing approximately $50 million in just one transaction. The incident occurred while executing a token swap on Aave, a prominent decentralized finance platform.

The wallet in question, freshly funded via Binance, contained $50,432,688 worth of aEthUSDT. These interest-bearing tokens represent Tether’s USDT stablecoin deposited within the Aave lending ecosystem operating on Ethereum.

The trader initiated a swap to exchange the entire balance for aEthAAVE, the tokenized version of Aave’s governance token. This transaction was processed through CoW Protocol and executed on the SushiSwap decentralized exchange.

Due to the massive size of the order relative to available pool liquidity, the swap suffered catastrophic slippage exceeding 99%. The final result was a mere 327 AAVE tokens worth roughly $36,000.

Effectively, the trader paid approximately $154,000 for each AAVE token when the prevailing market rate stood at around $114.

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What the Warnings Said

Stani Kulechov, founder of Aave, verified that the platform’s user interface had displayed prominent warnings before execution. In a post on X, he explained that the system alerted the user about “extraordinary slippage” resulting from the “unusually large size of the single order.”

The platform mandated that users check a confirmation box acknowledging the risk. The trader completed this step on a mobile device and moved forward with the transaction.

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“The transaction could not be moved forward without the user explicitly accepting the risk,” Kulechov stated. He emphasized that the CoW Swap routing system functioned exactly as designed.

CoW DAO released its own statement, explaining that “no DEX, DEX aggregator, public liquidity pool, or private liquidity pool would have been able to fill this trade at anywhere near a reasonable price.”

The MEV Bot Attack

Compounding the slippage disaster, an MEV bot launched a sophisticated “sandwich attack” targeting this transaction.

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MEV bots constantly scan pending blockchain transactions for profitable opportunities. This particular bot identified the massive incoming AAVE purchase and positioned itself to exploit it.

The bot secured a flash loan of $29 million in wrapped Ether from Morpho, deployed it to purchase AAVE on Bancor (artificially inflating the price), then sold directly into the trader’s order on SushiSwap. This strategy generated approximately $9.9 million in profits for the bot operator.

The manipulation drove AAVE’s price significantly higher immediately before the trader’s order executed, amplifying an already catastrophic outcome.

This incident followed closely after approximately $27 million in liquidations on Aave, which some observers suggested might have been connected to a temporary pricing anomaly affecting the wstETH token.

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Kulechov expressed sympathy for the affected trader. The Aave protocol intends to contact the user and reimburse approximately $600,000 in fees collected during the transaction.

CoW DAO similarly committed to refunding any protocol fees associated with the trade.

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AAVE Crypto Swap Costs Nearly $50M Lost: ETH MEV Pocketed $9.9M

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😭

When a trader wipes out $50M in seconds, the industry usually assumes a bridge hack or a sophisticated exploit. Late on Thursday (March 12), however, a crypto whale incinerated nearly their entire balance with a single click of AAVE crypto swap.

The user attempted to swap $50M worth of USDT for AAVE in a single on-chain transaction. Due to a complete lack of liquidity for an order of that magnitude, the trade suffered catastrophic slippage, returning just 324 AAVE crypto, worth roughly $50,000, for the $50M spent.

Data from the transaction shows the wallet interacted with the Aave interface via CoW Swap. According to Aave Labs founder Stani Kulechov, the interface explicitly “warned the user about extraordinary slippage and required confirmation via a checkbox.”

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In a statement on X, CoW Swap confirmed that clear price-impact warnings were displayed and that the transaction followed the signed parameters. This comes down to user error and a lack of self-preservation in not using MEV bot protection.

SOURCE: TradingView

How a Single Swap Cost One Whale $50M While Buying AAVE Crypto

The mechanics behind this loss are brutal but standard. Decentralized exchanges (DEXs) rely on liquidity pools. When a buy order exceeds the available liquidity at the current price, the automated market maker (AMM) moves the price up the curve to fill the order.

To fill the $50M order, the protocol had to buy available AAVE at astronomically higher prices, resulting in an average entry price that wiped out the capital immediately.

This highlights why institutional players typically break such trades into thousands of smaller chunks or use OTC (over-the-counter) desks.

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While Ethereum is quickly cementing itself as the backbone of institutional settlement, this event shows that the user interface layer still allows for catastrophic human error. Smart contracts do not judge the wisdom of a trade; it only executes the parameters signed by the wallet.

DISCOVER: The 16 Best Meme Coins to Buy in March 2025

What This Reveals About DeFi Market Structure

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This event exposes the dangerous reality of “fat finger” trades in DeFi, where human intervention or flagging systems would likely pause such an anomaly in traditional finance.

Current liquidity on Aave, or almost any single DEX pool, cannot absorb $50M in a single tick without massive price distortion.

Interestingly, the AAVE crypto token is up +5% over the past 24 hours, a price surge that may have been buoyed by an unfortunate user who bought $50,000 worth of the token for $50M.

We have seen similar risks highlighted recently, as just yesterday, the Bonk.fun website was hijacked leading to user funds being drained.

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While that incident involved malicious actors, the AAVE swap shows that users can cause similar losses to themselves without a compromised platform.

What Happens Next for the Whale and How to Avoid Their Mistake

There is no reversal button on the blockchain. However, Kulechov noted that Aave Labs is attempting to contact the user to return approximately $600,000 in fees collected from the transaction.

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While a sympathetic gesture, it represents slightly more than 1% of the lost funds. For the broader market, the lesson is stark: liquidity warnings are not suggestions.

If the interface warns of “Extraordinary Slippage,” take note. And even for smaller transactions, let alone five-figure ones, always enable MEV protection when executing trades, protecting users from sandwich attacks and being front-ran.

EXPLORE: Best Crypto Presales to Buy in 2026

The post AAVE Crypto Swap Costs Nearly $50M Lost: ETH MEV Pocketed $9.9M appeared first on Cryptonews.

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US Midterms may Fuel Crypto, Stock Market Recovery: Binance Research

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US Midterms may Fuel Crypto, Stock Market Recovery: Binance Research

Update March 12, 1:21 pm UTC: This article has been updated to include comments from Gracy Chen, CEO of crypto exchange Bitget.

The US midterm elections may be the next catalyst to kickstart the crypto and stock market recovery, according to historical data shared by Binance Research.

According to a Wednesday report from Binance Research, US midterm election cycles have historically been followed by strong rebounds in stocks and Bitcoin (BTC), potentially setting up a recovery window for risk assets after the 2026 vote.

The 12 months following US midterm elections have resulted in an average 19% rise in the S&P 500 and 54% rise for Bitcoin in the three post-midterm years on record.

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Binance Research said the year following the US midterms may prove the “strongest window in the cycle,” arguing that markets have historically rallied after election outcomes remove a major source of political uncertainty.

“Once election outcomes are determined and uncertainty is resolved, markets have historically staged powerful rallies.”

Bitcoin logged negative returns during previous midterm years, including a 56% drawdown in 2014, 73% decline in 2018 and a 64% retracement in 2022, but historic patterns showed a rebound in the following years.

Bitcoin’s average returns since 2013. Source: Binance Research

The report comes nearly eight months before the Nov. 3 US midterm elections, which will determine the makeup of the 120th Congress.

Binance said near-term market direction is more likely to be driven by the conflict involving the US, Israel and Iran, warning that further escalation could push oil prices higher and keep risk assets under pressure.

Related: Can US lawmakers pass crypto market structure before the midterms?

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Oil spike adds to market stress

Crude oil price briefly surged to $95 per barrel on Thursday as the conflict entered its 13th day, according to data from Trading Economics.

The price surge followed reports of Iran stepping up its attacks against energy infrastructure, as two fuel tankers were scorched by explosive-laden Iranian boats, Reuters reported earlier on Thursday.

A spokesperson for Iran’s military command told the news outlet that the world should prepare for oil prices of $200 per barrel due to the instability caused by the US.

OIL/USD, 1-year chart. Source: Trading Economics

The jump came a day after the International Energy Agency said member countries would carry out a 400 million-barrel emergency stock release, the largest coordinated drawdown on record.

Gracy Chen, CEO of crypto exchange Bitget, said the crypto market’s recovery hinges on a resolution to the conflict, as continued oil supply disruptions may “position oil to outperform gold as a hedge.” 

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“In this environment, crypto’s higher-beta profile means its upside potential could still exceed traditional equities should liquidity conditions stabilize once political uncertainty clears,” she told Cointelegraph.

Related: US Senate bill targets prediction markets on war and assassinations

Global markets in “wait-and-see” phase amid geopolitical escalations

The ongoing developments in the Middle East remain the key driver for global risk sentiment, as uncertainty surrounding energy supply and military escalations left markets in a “wait-and-see phase where policy and geopolitical risks intersect,” analysts at crypto derivatives exchange Bitunix told Cointelegraph:

“Currently, BTC is fluctuating repeatedly below the $70,000 level, indicating that market activity remains dominated by liquidity sweeps both above and below.”

The market structure suggests that Bitcoin will remain bound to this range until “macro events provide clearer directional signals,” the analysts said.

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