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Crypto World

Bernstein backs Circle on CLARITY Act win

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CLARITY Act ethics fight blocks 60 Senate votes

Bernstein Circle analysts said the CLARITY Act yield compromise blocks rival stablecoin issuers from competing on rates

Summary

  • Bernstein said the CLARITY Act language structurally favors Circle by banning deposit-like yield on passive stablecoin balances.
  • Total dollar-backed stablecoin supply surpassed $300 billion this week, with USDC and USDT controlling roughly 97% of the market.
  • The firm maintained an Outperform rating and $190 price target on Circle, implying about 67% upside from Friday’s close.

Bernstein analysts said the CLARITY Act’s yield compromise structurally favors Circle Internet Group, ending what they described as a looming stablecoin “interest rate arms race.” The note landed days after the bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9.

The compromise prohibits stablecoin issuers from paying yield economically equivalent to bank deposits, while preserving rewards tied to trading and payments. Bernstein argued the language protects USDC’s growth model.

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Stablecoin supply tops $300 billion

Total dollar-backed stablecoin supply surpassed $300 billion this week, with Tether and USDC controlling roughly 97% of the market. Adjusted monthly transaction volume reached around $15 trillion, putting annualized flows near $100 trillion.

USDC’s market share in adjusted transaction volumes climbed from 41% to 60% year-over-year. Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote that the compromise “cements stablecoins as payment instruments rather than deposit substitutes.”

Circle ARC blockchain reinforces thesis

Bernstein also highlighted Circle’s growing agentic payments infrastructure, including gas-free USDC transfers, the x402 protocol, and the ARC blockchain. ARC uses USDC as native gas under what the firm called “quantum-ready” architecture.

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The bank maintained an Outperform rating and $190 price target on Circle, implying roughly 67% upside from its $114 close on Friday. Bernstein also kept an Outperform call on Coinbase with a $330 target.

Circle does not pay passive yield on USDC directly. Partners such as Coinbase instead use distribution arrangements and activity-linked rewards programs tied to USDC usage, structures the CLARITY Act compromise leaves intact.

The CLARITY Act now heads to a full Senate floor vote that requires 60 votes. The House must reconcile any differences before the bill reaches President Trump’s desk for signature.

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MetaMask Introduces Money Account Featuring mUSD Rewards and Payment Integration

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

Key Highlights

  • MetaMask introduces Money Account featuring mUSD yield generation and payment capabilities
  • Users can earn, transact, and trade using a unified balance
  • mUSD holdings may generate up to 4% variable APY following fee deductions
  • MetaMask Card users could receive up to 3% cashback rewards in mUSD
  • Monad blockchain enables sponsored transaction fees for efficient stablecoin operations

MetaMask has introduced its Money Account feature, integrating mUSD yield opportunities, payment functionality, and trading capabilities within a single self-custody balance. This new offering transforms the platform from a basic wallet and exchange tool into a comprehensive financial solution as stablecoins become increasingly mainstream in everyday transactions. Eligible users now have access to a streamlined method for generating returns, making purchases, and executing trades without transferring assets between different accounts.

mUSD Yield Integration Powers Money Account

The Money Account centers on mUSD, MetaMask’s proprietary stablecoin engineered for transaction processing and account management. Users have the ability to exchange compatible stablecoins for mUSD at a one-to-one exchange rate with no conversion charges. Additionally, mUSD can be acquired through approved fiat payment channels in jurisdictions where the service is available.

The platform distributes opted-in funds through third-party vault systems overseen by Veda. Initially, assets are channeled into Morpho protocols, with Aave integration planned for subsequent releases. Yield calculations refresh within the account interface and may achieve up to 4% variable annual percentage yield after applicable fees.

According to Consensys, Bridge maintains the reserve assets supporting mUSD through U.S. dollar holdings and short-duration Treasury securities. The stablecoin operates on M0 infrastructure, while yield production functions independently from reserve backing mechanisms. MetaMask emphasizes that users retain full control over their private keys, preventing the company from accessing or moving user funds.

Payment Functionality Via Monad Integration

Money Account operates on the Monad blockchain, which facilitates rapid settlement times and consistent transaction expenses. The architecture employs sponsored gas fee models, enabling users to manage their balances without incurring network costs. This framework supports seamless payment processing, yield generation, and trading activities from a consolidated balance.

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MetaMask has integrated the account with its MetaMask Card in regions where the card service operates. Transactions automatically settle using the Money Account balance without requiring additional conversion procedures. Qualified card transactions may also generate up to 3% cashback rewards distributed in mUSD.

The service accommodates multiple stablecoins, including USDC, USDT, DAI, aUSDC, aUSDT, and aDAI across compatible blockchain networks. Account funding options include cryptocurrency transfers and approved fiat on-ramp services. MetaMask has deployed this functionality worldwide, excluding the United Kingdom and certain restricted territories.

Crypto Wallets Evolve Toward Full Banking Services

MetaMask’s Money Account debut reflects intensifying competition among wallet providers and exchanges to capture more comprehensive financial services. Cryptocurrency platforms are increasingly incorporating payment systems, savings mechanisms, and trading features centered around stablecoin balances. This evolution parallels growing stablecoin adoption among traditional banks, payment processors, and established financial institutions.

The launch coincides with ongoing regulatory discussions surrounding stablecoin yield offerings in the United States. Government agencies and legislative bodies continue examining how cryptocurrency companies can provide returns on stablecoin deposits. These deliberations may significantly influence future products that merge payment processing, asset custody, and decentralized finance returns.

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MetaMask has simultaneously expanded into automated financial tools through its Agent Wallet product. This solution enables AI agents to execute transactions according to user-established parameters and restrictions. Collectively, these initiatives demonstrate MetaMask’s strategic transformation from a simple cryptocurrency wallet into a comprehensive financial management platform.

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AVAX Treasury Collapse Raises Doubts Over Company Survival

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR

  • Avalanche Treasury Corp told regulators it may not survive the year due to financial strain.
  • The company cited “substantial doubt” about its ability to continue as a going concern.
  • AVAX price declines led to major writedowns and over $26 million in quarterly losses.
  • The firm’s AVAX holdings dropped to nearly half of their original purchase value.
  • Shares collapsed over 90% within a month and now trade below $0.73.

Avalanche Treasury Corp told regulators it may not survive the year after a steep decline in its finances. The company disclosed material losses and liquidity pressure linked to falling AVAX prices. It also warned that current conditions raise “substantial doubt” about its ability to continue operations.

AVAX Holdings Decline and Balance Sheet Pressure

The company previously promoted a large AVAX treasury valued near one billion dollars during last year’s expansion phase. However, market conditions changed, and the value of its AVAX holdings dropped sharply over recent months. As a result, its market capitalization fell below thirty million dollars, reflecting severe investor concern.

Its operating unit reported losses exceeding twenty-six million dollars in one quarter due to AVAX writedowns. The firm bought AVAX for about two hundred sixty-five million dollars, yet the holdings fell to nearly one hundred twenty-three million dollars. This gap left the company holding assets worth far less than their original purchase cost.

AVAX prices declined forty-seven percent this year and nearly two-thirds over the past twelve months. Consequently, the treasury strategy weakened as asset values dropped and reduced the firm’s financial flexibility. The company stated that these conditions created ongoing uncertainty regarding its financial stability.

Stock Collapse Follows AVAX Treasury Strategy

Avalanche Treasury Corp completed a merger with a blank check company and entered public markets with high expectations. However, investor sentiment turned negative as disclosures revealed risks tied to its AVAX exposure and financial position. The stock fell from above ten dollars to below two dollars within days of additional filings.

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Shares continued to decline and traded below seventy-three cents, entering penny stock territory. In total, the stock lost more than ninety percent of its value within one month. This decline reflected market concern over the sustainability of its AVAX treasury model.

The company also pledged a large portion of its AVAX holdings as collateral for a loan agreement. It committed nearly seven point eight million AVAX tokens from a total of thirteen point eight million holdings. This move increased financial risk as falling prices could pressure collateral requirements.

Other AVAX Treasury Firms Show Similar Declines

Other firms pursuing AVAX treasury strategies reported similar declines in value after initial expansion plans. AgriFORCE Growing Systems rebranded as AVAX One and announced a large capital raise to acquire more AVAX. The company aimed to build a significant AVAX treasury supported by strategic investors and advisors.

Despite those plans, its market value dropped sharply and now stands near forty-three million dollars. The firm’s shares declined sixty-eight percent this year and over ninety percent in the past year. These figures highlight the broader pressure affecting companies holding large AVAX reserves.

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Data across the sector shows a consistent downward trend in treasury company valuations linked to AVAX exposure. Companies that accumulated AVAX during earlier market optimism now face reduced asset values and weaker investor confidence. This trend underscores the risks tied to concentrated digital asset treasury strategies.

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Strategy’s Capital Restructure Signals Shift Away From “Death Spiral” Risk

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Crypto Breaking News

Strategy, the publicly traded firm behind the Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) Bitcoin treasury model, has moved to reassure investors after a steep drop in both Bitcoin and its own shares intensified fears about the company’s complex capital structure. With Bitcoin trading below $60,000 and Strategy’s stock down more than 70% from its highs, attention has turned to STRC—Strategy’s preferred-like security—and the possibility that its funding mechanics could amplify downturns.

On Monday, Strategy unveiled a new capital framework designed to address concerns around liquidity, financing reflexivity, and the company’s ability to meet obligations during stress. The plan includes up to $1 billion of buybacks for MSTR, up to $1 billion of buybacks for STRC and related securities, an increase in STRC’s dividend to roughly 12%, and expansion of the company’s cash buffer to $2.55 billion. Strategy also disclosed that it may sell up to $1.25 billion in BTC holdings if needed to satisfy dividend or debt requirements.

Key takeaways

  • Strategy’s new framework combines buybacks (MSTR and STRC) with a larger cash reserve, aiming to reduce uncertainty during market stress.
  • STRC’s dividend is expected to rise to roughly 12%, supported by expanded cash resources under the plan.
  • Strategy added a contingency option: selling up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin if required for dividend or debt obligations.
  • Short-term trading activity improved after the announcement, with STRC and MSTR both rallying more than 12% in after-hours trading, according to Yahoo Finance.
  • Debate continues over whether the company’s structure can withstand prolonged tightening in funding markets—even if it is not expected to face near-term insolvency.

What Strategy outlined in its capital framework

Strategy’s announcement centers on a restructuring of how it intends to manage risk across its Bitcoin-linked balance sheet and its layered security offerings. The company says the package includes up to $1 billion in buybacks for MSTR and up to $1 billion in buybacks for STRC and related securities.

In addition to buybacks, Strategy is increasing the STRC dividend rate to roughly 12% and expanding its cash buffer to $2.55 billion. Strategy’s filing—an 8-K submitted June 29—spells out the mechanics and priorities management would follow in its capital allocation framework, including an emergency pathway that allows BTC sales if needed to meet obligations.

Crucially for investors who worry about “reflexive” downside dynamics, Strategy also said it may sell up to $1.25 billion in BTC holdings to meet dividend or debt requirements. That disclosure is notable given Strategy’s long-standing “Bitcoin maximalist” positioning and the recurring argument that selling BTC during stress could worsen market conditions.

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Following the release, markets reacted positively. As reported with reference to Yahoo Finance, STRC and MSTR shares rose more than 12% in after-hours trading. The piece notes STRC was trading at $84.86 after the announcement, up from $72.06 on June 26.

Why STRC is a flashpoint for investors

STRC sits in the middle of Strategy’s capital structure—positioned as a perpetual preferred-like instrument linked to the broader Bitcoin treasury strategy. Strategy describes STRC as paying an annual dividend of about 12% on a $100 par value, supported by cash and its Bitcoin-linked capital framework.

This design has drawn skepticism from critics who argue that the instrument’s stability depends less on Strategy’s underlying solvency and more on the health of secondary-market demand and liquidity conditions. In other words, even if STRC is not a classic stablecoin, its market behavior can still be sensitive to tightening access to capital.

Earlier concerns have focused on how Strategy’s treasury approach could interact with market stress. Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff has repeatedly challenged Strategy’s model, warning that Strategy can’t sell Bitcoin without negatively affecting Bitcoin’s price and pointing to potential spillover effects if purchasing activity slows or selling accelerates.

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At the same time, some analysts and market participants argue the risk framing is overstated. Taran Dhillon, head of digital assets at Kula, told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin volatility alone is unlikely to break the structure; he suggested the more important test is whether Bitcoin remains under pressure while funding becomes progressively more expensive or difficult.

The bear case: liquidity dependency and potential feedback loops

Much of the controversy around Strategy’s structure relates to how its financing cycle can behave in both directions. The core bear argument is that the same momentum that fuels expansion in calmer conditions can intensify stress when investors pull back, funding costs rise, or liquidity in secondary markets deteriorates.

Cointelegraph reported that Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, made a similar point on CNBC, criticizing financial engineering as a driver of long-term value. Kyle Rodda, senior analyst at Capital.com, characterized Strategy as a momentum-driven accumulation vehicle: capital raises funds for Bitcoin purchases, and those purchases support the company’s valuation. But he warned the dynamic can reverse when market conditions weaken, funding costs rise, and investor appetite declines.

Rodda also emphasized that secondary market liquidity is a structural dependency. If refinancing pressures or forced selling forces larger adjustments elsewhere, the spillover effects could extend beyond Strategy itself.

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Some prominent Bitcoin commentators have compared the scenario to prior stress-tested leveraged structures in crypto. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, has been among the critics drawing parallels to Terra/LUNA-era dynamics during drawdowns, framing the situation as potential “feedback loop” risk rather than a purely price-driven story.

The neutral and bull positions: stress may target funding markets first

Not all observers agree that the primary threat is Bitcoin price movement. Dhillon suggested that any early instability would likely show up first in funding conditions—such as widening discounts, higher yields, and reduced issuance capacity—rather than immediate solvency failure tied directly to Bitcoin valuation.

He also highlighted a key distinction: STRC is not a stablecoin pegged mechanically to $100. Instead, its yield profile is designed to adjust with market pricing. The logic, in theory, is that when STRC trades below par value, the effective yield becomes more attractive to buyers, eventually pulling pricing back toward $100.

Cointelegraph also referenced a Bitfire Research report shared with the outlet, which argued that recent STRC price dislocations should not automatically be treated as structural failure. The report stated that Strategy faces no near-term insolvency risk, attributing de-pegging events largely to sentiment and liquidity conditions rather than a sudden change in fundamentals or solvency profile.

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On the bull side, the article describes a “three-year MSTR stress test” conducted by Bitcoin supporter Adam Livingston. His model assumes extreme conditions—including a 55% Bitcoin drawdown, closed capital markets, and continued cash burn requiring large Bitcoin sales. The simulation also tracks a dramatic compression in “common equity Bitcoin exposure” (CEBE) and estimates that Strategy would sell approximately 115,727 BTC over three years to meet obligations before stabilization returns.

In Livingston’s scenario, the company survives the cycle and ends with over 700,000 BTC on its balance sheet, with a recovering net asset structure once conditions normalize. The takeaway from this model, regardless of how an investor views its assumptions, is that proponents believe the balance-sheet framework could be robust enough to survive even severe drawdowns—particularly if contingency mechanisms are executed as planned.

What changed—and what remains uncertain

Strategy’s new framework can be viewed as an attempt to make its stress-response playbook more concrete. According to the article’s references to Strategy’s June 29 8-K filing, management is focusing on transparency around how it would act during liquidity or capital-market disruptions—especially through cash buffer expansion, buybacks for both MSTR and STRC, and the ability to monetize Bitcoin up to $1.25 billion if required.

Dhillon described the changes as a meaningful improvement to transparency and confidence, pointing to the enlarged $2.55 billion reserve and a clearer plan for how Bitcoin monetization would work under pressure.

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However, critics argue the fundamental dependency remains. Schiff, as cited in the piece, pointed to market-cap vs. Bitcoin value asymmetries—arguing that as long as MSTR’s market cap remains below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, newly issued capital could imply a “negative Bitcoin yield.” In other words, for some skeptics, the debate is not whether contingency tools exist, but whether the market structure will persistently price exposure in a way that helps—or harms—long-term holders.

Ultimately, Strategy’s framework strengthens the company’s toolkit for short-term stress, but it does not remove its reliance on access to capital markets over time. The key unresolved question is whether expanded liquidity buffers, buybacks, and contingency BTC sales can stand up to a prolonged period of tightening across both equity and credit-style markets—precisely the environment where feedback-loop concerns tend to matter most.

For investors, the next watch items are straightforward: whether STRC’s pricing relationship to par value stabilizes, how funding conditions evolve if Bitcoin stays under pressure, and whether Strategy’s disclosed order of operations holds up in practice during the next stress test.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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US Lifts Export Controls on Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 Models

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Crypto Executive Disputes Claims Anthropic’s Mythos Breached NSA Systems

The United States just lifted export controls on Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5. The Commerce Department cleared both models on June 30, paving the way for a swift restoration of full global access starting July 1.

The resolution ends nearly three weeks of tense negotiations between Anthropic and the White House.

What the Lifted Export Controls Actually Mean

An export control is a US rule that restricts who can access sensitive technology, including advanced AI models, based on national security concerns. The Commerce Department imposed one on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 shortly after the models launched. It has now been formally reversed.

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The original directive landed on June 12, just three days after the models went live on June 9. Furthermore, it cited national security concerns reportedly tied to potential model jailbreaks. As a result, Anthropic suspended access for foreign nationals worldwide across every product surface.

The rule caused immediate operational chaos. Segmenting users by nationality in real time proved impossible in practice. Consequently, Anthropic took both models entirely offline for customers on Claude.ai, the API, AWS Bedrock, and other partner platforms until the situation could be resolved.

The company confirmed the reversal directly. “We’ve received notice that the Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5. We’ll begin restoring access tomorrow, and will share an update soon,” Anthropic posted on June 30.

Why Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 Matter So Much

Claude Fable 5 stands as Anthropic’s most capable widely available model. It is built on the powerful Mythos-class architecture but ships with enhanced safeguards for general use. Furthermore, it excels at demanding reasoning tasks, long-horizon agentic work, software engineering, and advanced vision capabilities.

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Mythos 5 targets more sensitive workloads. The model shares the same underlying architecture but comes with lifted safeguards for cybersecurity applications. Moreover, access was originally reserved for trusted partners through Project Glasswing across high-stakes government and enterprise deployments.

Pricing keeps both models competitive across the industry. Anthropic charges 10 dollars per million input tokens and 50 dollars per million output tokens. Additionally, built-in classifiers automatically route high-risk queries to safer fallbacks, especially on cybersecurity and biology-related tasks across every product surface.

The resolution highlights a broader shift in the AI industry. Anthropic held intensive talks with Commerce Department and White House officials throughout the standoff. As a result, the swift lifting signals both effective advocacy and a maturing regulatory framework for advanced AI systems across the entire United States.

The post US Lifts Export Controls on Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 Models appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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3 Things to Watch for in Ripple’s (XRP) Price This Week

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XRP is down 6% on the weekly chart. Where will it stop?

Ripple (XRP) Price Predictions: Analysis

Key support levels: $1

Key resistance levels: $1.3, $1.6, $2

XRP is Back at $1

Despite the best efforts from buyers, XRP has returned to the $1 support. This is the third time in the past two weeks that this cryptocurrency tested this level. This is somewhat bearish since bulls have failed to push the price away from the key support.

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If seller pressure intensifies this week, then this support may eventually crack and turn into resistance. If so, buyers will most likely retreat to 80 cents, where the next major support level is found.

xrp_price_chart_3006261
Source: TradingView

Momentum Remains Bearish

With clear lower highs and lower lows, XRP is in a bearish trend that is still to find a bottom. Because of this, the price has a good chance to drop lower in the coming weeks and turn $1 into resistance.

Moreover, the momentum indicators remain on the bearish side, with the 3-day RSI close to 30 points, which also indicates a bearish trend. As long as the RSI remains under 50, bears retain the upper hand.

xrp_price_chart_3006262
Source: TradingView

Weekly MACD About to do a Bearish Cross

Another concerning signal can be seen on the weekly MACD. The moving averages are about to do a bearish cross. This would be the first time it happens in 2026, and if confirmed, it’s unlikely XRP will enter a recovery in the future.

Considering the above, the outlook for the second half of the year is negative, with lower lows likely. Best to wait for a bottom confirmation before considering an entry on XRP.

xrp_rsi_chart_3006261
Source: TradingView

The post 3 Things to Watch for in Ripple’s (XRP) Price This Week appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Massachusetts AG Amends Kalshi Sports Betting Lawsuit After Ruling

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Crypto Breaking News

A Massachusetts judge has allowed state authorities to expand their lawsuit against prediction markets platform Kalshi, extending the legal fight over whether the company’s sports event contracts should be regulated as online sports wagering.

In a Tuesday filing in Suffolk County Superior Court, associate justice Peter Krupp permitted Massachusetts regulators to submit a 71-page amended complaint, adding new allegations to the state’s initial case that Kalshi violated Massachusetts law by offering sports-related wagering without the required authorization.

Key takeaways

  • A Massachusetts judge allowed the state to file a 71-page amended complaint against Kalshi, keeping the case active.
  • The expanded allegations claim Kalshi’s product effectively functions as sports wagering and that its marketing may reach people under 21.
  • Massachusetts’ argument hinges on whether Kalshi must be licensed through the Massachusetts Gaming Commission to comply with state rules.
  • The dispute also sits within a wider US battle over whether the CFTC has “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets.
  • Gaming and tribal groups are separately pushing Congress for clearer rules through the CLARITY Act.

Expanded allegations in the Massachusetts case

The Tuesday ruling clears the way for Massachusetts authorities to strengthen their claims as the case continues. According to the court filing, the amended complaint builds on earlier allegations that Kalshi engaged in sports wagering in a way that violates state law.

The state’s updated pleading includes accusations that the platform “targets those under 21 years of age” and does not do enough to prevent underage users from accessing the product. The complaint points to Kalshi’s marketing practices and to ad creative that, the filing alleges, shows individuals who appear younger than 21.

Massachusetts authorities also reiterated that Kalshi permits users from age 18 to create accounts and place wagers on sports events by purchasing event contracts, framing that accessibility as incompatible with the state’s approach to online sports wagering.

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How the dispute started—and what the judge previously ordered

Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell announced the lawsuit in September 2025, arguing that Kalshi needed to be licensed by the Massachusetts Gaming Commission to comply with state rules governing online sports wagers.

Earlier developments escalated the dispute quickly. In January, a judge issued a preliminary injunction barring Kalshi from offering sports event contracts while the case was reviewed.

With the latest amended complaint allowed by the court, Kalshi now faces a more detailed version of the state’s allegations as it continues fighting the legality of its sports contracts under Massachusetts law.

Cointelegraph reached out to Kalshi for comment, but did not receive an immediate response. After the initial complaint was filed, a Kalshi spokesperson had said the company was “ready to defend” itself in court.

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The federal-versus-state jurisdiction fight over prediction markets

The Massachusetts case is only one part of a broader regulatory tug-of-war in the US. In parallel with state-level enforcement efforts, the CFTC has supported the view that prediction markets fall within its authority.

In April, the CFTC filed a brief in Massachusetts arguing that it had “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets. The agency’s position, under Chair Michael Selig, is that event contracts offered by platforms like Kalshi are “swaps” under the Commodity Exchange Act and therefore should not be governed by state regulation.

As Selig put it in remarks associated with the agency’s stance, Congress has entrusted the CFTC with sole authority to regulate commodity derivatives markets, including prediction markets—and he warned that states attempting to override federal law would face legal challenges.

Why this matters beyond Kalshi: a policy push for the CLARITY Act

Even as the legal arguments could eventually move toward higher courts, some industry and stakeholder groups are urging lawmakers to address the jurisdictional uncertainty with legislation.

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Earlier this month, national gaming and tribal organizations and labor groups asked US senators to add language to the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act. Their request is aimed at explicitly prohibiting event contracts tied to sports and casino-style gaming.

The CLARITY Act—currently under consideration in the Senate—is expected to shape how the CFTC’s authority over digital assets and related market activities is defined. In that context, stakeholders pushing for restrictions on sports and casino-style event contracts are effectively seeking legislative clarity to reduce the need for repeated state-by-state court battles.

Cointelegraph has also reported that the legal landscape for Kalshi and similar platforms has varied by jurisdiction, including instances where the company was blocked from offering sports bets in certain locations.

What to watch next

For market participants and platform users, the next key developments are procedural and strategic: Massachusetts will attempt to sustain its expanded claims after the preliminary injunction, while Kalshi’s defense will likely continue confronting the CFTC’s argument for exclusive federal oversight. At the same time, the direction of the CLARITY Act could determine whether US prediction markets face a patchwork of state litigation or a more uniform regulatory framework.

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Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Bitcoin Could Fall Into the $40,000s Before Bottoming: Bitfinex Analysts

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According to on-chain indicators reviewed by analysts at the crypto exchange Bitfinex, bitcoin (BTC) still has some way to go before it bottoms out in this bear cycle.

The latest Bitfinex Alpha report revealed that the leading digital asset could decline further into the $40,000s by the end of this year as more investors exit the spot market.

A Possible Drawdown Into the $40Ks

In past market cycles, BTC has always declined at least 70% from its all-time highs (ATHs) before bottoming out and recovering. During the 2022 bear market, BTC fell 78% from $69,000, while in 2018, it plummeted 86% below cycle highs near $20,000.

Based on previous drawdown patterns and the time horizons between tops and bottoms, BTC is likely to extend its ongoing decline into the $40,000s. The asset is currently 53.9% down from its ATH of $126,000; dropping into the $40,000s will bring the decline to at least 68%. Additionally, analysts believe BTC could reach its bear-cycle bottom in the fourth quarter of 2026 if cycle estimates account for price moves relative to moving averages.

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Analysts say BTC’s structural levels remain unchanged, even though the asset’s floor gave way over the weekend. With the coin trading near $60,000 at press time, it is positioned beneath the True Market Mean of $77,000, a level representing the average cost basis for active investors. This level also serves as a demarcation between bullish and bearish market regimes, so bitcoin’s price action will continue to be defined by a structural bear market environment.

Spot Demand Still Weak

After breaking below the $61,500 support level and falling to a new bear cycle low of $58,136 last week, $53,400 is now the key support level to watch. The move towards $58,000 reflects weakening spot demand as seen in short-term holder selling, exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows, the collapse of the digital asset treasury channel, and negative gamma pressure.

Unlike previous declines, there were no large-scale liquidations and flushes in open interest as BTC fell below $60,000 last week. This substantiated the fact that the fall was a structural exodus within the spot markets. With the market’s primary demand engine missing, bitcoin’s price is likely to remain weak and continue a downtrend in the coming weeks.

“But the market awaits a resurgence of spot demand to be able to find a floor and potentially turn higher,” analysts explained.

The post Bitcoin Could Fall Into the $40,000s Before Bottoming: Bitfinex Analysts appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Bitmine ETH Buys Overshadowed By $345M ETF Outflow

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Bitmine ETH Buys Overshadowed By $345M ETF Outflow

Key takeaways:

  • The Spot Ether ETF outflows overwhelmed BitMine’s ETH accumulation, raising the chance of a drop below the $1,500 support.
  • Falling DApps revenue and weak staking yields highlight limited ecosystem incentives despite tokenization potential.

Ether (ETH) has failed to sustain prices above $1,600 since Thursday, following the broader cryptocurrency market’s downtrend. Lower oil prices created a positive tone that fueled investors’ hopes for more expansionist monetary policy. That setup favors stocks and pushes bond yields higher.

Traders now fear that ETH will not hold the $1,500 support level for long. Spot Ether ETF outflows void the impact of accumulation from Ether treasury companies.

ETH/USD (orange) vs. Total crypto market cap (blue). Source: TradingView

Ether price has declined 31% since May and underperformed the total cryptocurrency market capitalization by 8% over that period. US-listed Ether ETFs saw $345 million in net outflows since June 17, which more than offset the $182 million in ETH accumulation from BitMine Immersion (BMNR US) and Sharplink (SBET US) during the same period.

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Regulatory setbacks, AI competition and weak Ethereum onchain metrics

Several factors appear to have held back investor appetite, including regulatory uncertainty in the United States. Meanwhile, the stock market continues to draw attention thanks to strong earnings and lower inflation expectations.

The Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act has awaited a Senate vote since May 15. The bill ends regulation-by-enforcement and clarifies which tokens count as securities. Yet it has faced pushback from lawmakers over provisions regarding stablecoin yields and anti-money-laundering standards.

Democratic lawmakers voiced ethical concerns about the Trump family’s ties to crypto and its role in the World Liberty Financial platform. Most view the CLARITY Act as a positive catalyst for the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector. So ongoing uncertainty around approval hurts institutional demand for ETH.

The artificial intelligence sector now competes with blockchain for data processing as cloud providers deliver services through agentic architectures. Enterprise software leader SAP (SAP DE) has integrated autonomous, modular AI agents natively across multi-vendor clouds, enabling peer-to-peer collaboration.

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Ether investors also feel disappointment from stagnant Ethereum network fees and decentralized applications (DApps) revenues. As a result, ETH supply becomes inflationary, staking yields remain limited, and fewer incentives exist for ecosystem growth, since part of DApps’ revenue flows back to users.

Ethereum monthly network chain fees vs. DApps revenue, USD. Source: DefiLlama

Ethereum network fees reached only $10.7 million in June, down from $24.4 million in April. DApps revenue hit $51.7 million in June, down from $64.8 million two months earlier. Top contributors included Sky (formerly Maker) at $12.7 million, Titan Builder at $7.2 million, and Chainlink at $4.6 million.

Ethereum supporters argue that tokenization remains in its early innings. The long-term growth potential should create enough blockchain demand to support a much higher ETH valuation.

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Related: Ether treasury Sharplink bought $62.4M ETH last week

Ethereum real world assets (RWA) active market capitalization, USD. Source: DefiLlama

While real world assets (RWA) show real promise, the $14.5 billion in tokenized market cap on Ethereum has yet to spark meaningful DeFi activity. With a 2.7% staking yield and weak onchain metrics, the odds of ETH breaking below $1,500 remain in play.

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China-linked actors target more than technology as AI competition with U.S. intensifies

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Limiting access to top AI models in the U.S. could hand China an opening as capability gap narrows

U.S.-based cybersecurity giant CrowdStrike has warned of increasing cyberattacks from China-based entities aimed at stealing artificial intelligence to narrow the tech gap with the U.S.

Bill Hinton | Moment Mobile | Getty Images

Cyberattacks aimed at stealing American artificial intelligence technology are increasingly expanding from tech-based attacks to the exploitation of human-level vulnerabilities, with China-based actors playing a growing role.

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“As the AI race has heated up, the [People’s Republic of China] has targeted the tech sector increasingly,” said Matt Pearl, director of the strategic technologies program at the U.S.-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Rather than focusing on a specific trade secret, such as hardware designs, the hackers have broadened their interest to anything that could narrow the three- to four-month AI gap with the U.S., Pearl said. That, he said, ranges from understanding a company’s product roadmap, particularly in highly competitive sectors, to identifying weaknesses in supply chains.

The alleged cases are already piling up.

In June, U.S.-based cybersecurity giant CrowdStrike said Chinese entities accounted for more than half of state-sponsored intrusions targeting technology companies, especially their AI assets, in the 12 months through March 31.

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Limiting access to top AI models in the U.S. could hand China an opening as capability gap narrows

American tech start-up Anthropic has also accused Chinese companies, including Alibaba, of illicit attempts to steal its AI capabilities. Alibaba did not respond to a request for comment.

Last year, U.S.-based AI content detection startup Copyleaks said the responses generated by Chinese startup DeepSeek’s R1 model resembled those produced by OpenAI’s ChatGPT nearly three-quarters of the time, suggesting the open-source Chinese model may have been trained on the U.S.-developed one.

“We haven’t seen [the same stylistic match] in other LLMs,” said Alon Yamin, CEO and co-founder of Copyleaks.

DeepSeek and OpenAI did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Brian Abbott, founder and CEO of U.S.-based start-up Agentiq Capital, told CNBC in June that he believed an employee he hired from China last year was an agent of Beijing who purposely altered code and website content to prevent the company from getting venture capital funding.

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Abbott alleged the employee replaced references to “ASI,” or artificial superintelligence, with “fintech,” a once-trending term that many investors have soured on.

The individual was dismissed earlier this year, Abbott said, and the company filed a complaint with the FBI. CNBC was unable to independently verify the allegation.

“China’s economic espionage campaign is a continuing threat that costs the American economy hundreds of billions of dollars per year and puts our national security at risk,” the FBI said in a statement to CNBC.

“The FBI prioritizes investigating any potential theft of US technology by foreign actors and remains unwavering in our commitment to protect the homeland.”

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The Cyberspace Administration of China and the U.S. Department of State did not offer a comment when contacted by CNBC. None of the individuals interviewed for this piece said they had heard of a similar instance of state-directed subversion of U.S. technology.

Graham Webster, editor-in-chief of Stanford University’s DigiChina Project, said distinguishing state-sponsored espionage from individual or corporate-level efforts can be difficult.

He also pointed out that the conversation about Chinese AI is also affected by major U.S. companies gearing up for major initial public offerings.

“[The] narrative is overtaking reality in a lot of decisions,” Webster said.

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“The U.S. government is trying to hold China back to some extent,” he added, referring to technology export controls. “We should not be surprised that the Chinese government tries otherwise.”

Start-ups more at risk

Capital has been a defining driver of the AI race so far, with start-ups racing to rival tech giants or position themselves for acquisitions.

But that’s also created “cyber poverty lines” where small businesses lack the resources of large companies to defend against cyberattacks, said Cliff Steinhauer, director of information security and engagement at the non-profit National Cybersecurity Alliance.

Human vulnerabilities often pose the greater risk, Steinhauer said, particularly as attackers rely on “social engineering” tactics amplified by AI-powered content campaigns.

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Cyberattacks can also target new or contracted employees to breach systems.

“We’ve seen a lot of cases within our company, new employees that are joining the company, immediately they’re a target of cyberattacks to get access to our AI models,” Copyleaks’ Yamin said. He expects to see more such cases.

Government and company-led efforts also impact start-up operating costs.

Anthropic on June 11 announced a program called Claude Corps to train 1,000 people in AI and match them with non-profits in the U.S. Meanwhile in China, policymakers have rolled out significant AI support, including free or subsidized computing power and rent-free office space for start-ups.

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Isaac Stone Fish, founder and chief executive of consultancy Strategy Risks, said Beijing tends to focus more heavily on large corporations, but startups remain especially exposed since they don’t necessarily have cyber expertise.

“And Beijing’s attempt[s] have certainly increased over the last 18 months, since the release of DeepSeek really kicked off the US-China AI race,” Stone Fish said.

“Beijing wants to ensure that Chinese companies are at the vanguard of the global AI race,” he said. “One way that it does that is by sometimes working to suppress the development of American AI companies, through supply chain restrictions, employee harassment, hacking, targeted government subsidies of copycat competitors, among other strategies.”

“We’ve seen a lot of cases within our company, new employees that are joining the company, immediately they’re a target of cyberattacks to get access to our AI models,” Copyleaks’ Yamin said. He expects to see more such cases.

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For startups, balancing rapid innovation with security remains a challenge.

Abbott said the employee he hired was initially willing to work for free, and eventually received a few thousand dollars a month in addition to stock options, before the firing.

“If we paid everybody market rate, for a scrappy start-up I could never afford to do this,” he said, emphasizing the “need to secure our economy of start-ups stateside.”

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Trump Reports Over $1 Billion in Crypto Earnings in 2025 Disclosure

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Trump crypto earnings

President Donald Trump reported more than $1 billion in crypto earnings for 2025, with a single meme coin and his family’s crypto venture driving most of the income detailed in a new federal financial disclosure.

The 927-page filing, released Tuesday by the Office of Government Ethics, arrived one day after a pivotal Supreme Court ruling. The decision widened presidential power over the independent agencies that regulate digital assets.

Trump crypto earnings

Where Trump Crypto Earnings Came From

The filing shows CIC Digital, Trump’s meme coin business, earned about $636 million in royalties. He launched the token three days before his January 2025 inauguration.

World Liberty Financial added about $515 million from token sales and $65 million from equity in its holding company. The decentralized finance (DeFi) venture is roughly 38% owned by a Trump family entity.

Together, the three streams topped $1.2 billion. Trump separately disclosed more than $100 million in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) holdings.

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The stake ties him to a Trump family crypto empire built on assets he now helps regulate.

Disclosure Lands Beside a Major Court Ruling

The disclosure followed Trump v. Slaughter, a Supreme Court decision that lets presidents fire commissioners at independent regulators without cause.

The 6-3 ruling overturned Humphrey’s Executor, a 91-year-old precedent that had shielded those agencies from the White House. Legal analysts say it extends to the SEC and CFTC, the main crypto regulators.

The timing sharpened questions about Trump’s dual role as policymaker and crypto investor. Trump welcomed the outcome.

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“This Decision gives tremendous additional Power back to the Presidency, where it belongs. It is an Honor to be the sitting President who, after all these years, WON this very important, and hard fought, Case,” Trump noted in a Truth Social post.

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Scrutiny Over Conflicts of Interest Grows

World Liberty Financial has drawn the sharpest scrutiny. In May 2025, Abu Dhabi state fund MGX settled a $2 billion Binance investment using the firm’s USD1 stablecoin.

That deal routed foreign-government money through a token the president’s family helps control. Senate Democrats demanded hearings into the venture over its foreign ties.

The White House has denied that a reported UAE deal shaped the firm. Lawmakers have pushed to bar federal officials from such crypto transactions.

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The earnings landed during a market slump. Bitcoin’s spot price sat near $58,500 on Tuesday, down more than 50% from its October record.

Most small wallets that bought the meme coin have lost money, public data shows. Trump’s gains, set against those losses, will keep his stakes under watch as his agencies write the sector’s rules.

The post Trump Reports Over $1 Billion in Crypto Earnings in 2025 Disclosure appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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