Bernstein Lifts Robinhood Target on Tokenization, Prediction Markets

Bernstein analysts have lifted their price target for Robinhood Markets to $160 from $130, arguing that the company’s next growth phase will be driven more by tokenized equities and prediction markets than by conventional crypto trading. In a research note released on Monday, Bernstein kept an “Outperform” rating on the stock, which was last seen trading around $101 at the time of publication.

The investment firm’s central thesis is that Robinhood’s expansion into financial applications on-chain is still early, and that prediction markets could become its fastest-growing segment. Bernstein forecasts segment revenue of $1.7 billion by 2028, implying a 64% compound annual growth rate.

Key takeaways

• Bernstein raised Robinhood’s price target to $160 from $130 and maintained an Outperform rating.
• Analysts expect prediction markets to become Robinhood’s fastest-growing business, reaching $1.7 billion in segment revenue by 2028.
• Tokenized equities are framed as a major long-term opportunity tied to Robinhood’s push into blockchain infrastructure.
• Bernstein points to Robinhood Chain—an Arbitrum-based layer-2—as the firm’s proprietary route to building on-chain financial products.
• Industry momentum is highlighted by new integrations aimed at bringing shareholder governance tooling to tokenized securities.

Why Bernstein is betting on prediction markets

Bernstein’s upgrade is rooted in a shift from “crypto trading first” to “financial markets on-chain.” While the report doesn’t suggest traditional crypto activity will disappear, it places prediction markets at the center of Robinhood’s near-to-medium term growth story.

According to the analysts, prediction markets are positioned to scale faster than many other adjacent lines of business because they map closely to trading behavior and user engagement patterns already familiar to Robinhood customers. Bernstein’s segment revenue projection—$1.7 billion by 2028—also signals that it views this category as more than a pilot product.

Investors will likely focus on whether Robinhood can convert early adoption into durable volume and retention, particularly as the competitive landscape evolves. The report frames prediction markets as a “battleground” area alongside other market products that can benefit from on-chain infrastructure, but the key question remains whether growth matches Bernstein’s expectations as the category matures.

Tokenized equities and Robinhood Chain’s role

Beyond prediction markets, Bernstein highlighted tokenized equities as a long-term opportunity. The analysts connected this to Robinhood’s investment in blockchain infrastructure, specifically calling out Robinhood Chain—an Arbitrum-based layer-2 network—as the company’s proprietary foundation for tokenized real-world assets.

The report’s emphasis is not only on tokenization itself, but on the ability to build on-chain financial products without relying on third-party blockchains. That distinction matters commercially: if Robinhood can control key infrastructure layers, it may reduce integration friction and speed up product iteration, though the market will still require regulatory and operational clarity as tokenized securities expand.

Bernstein also argued that tokenization is becoming a foundational layer for capital markets. It projected that on-chain real-world assets could rise to between $2 trillion and $4 trillion by 2030, compared with roughly $35 billion today. The analysts further expect tokenized equities to capture an increasing share of that growth as adoption extends beyond areas such as Treasury instruments and private credit.

For traders and builders, the practical implication is that tokenized equities are increasingly tied to mainstream market infrastructure—not just crypto-native rails. If that plays out, Robinhood’s strategy would benefit from the broader shift toward digitized settlement, programmable compliance, and infrastructure that can support capital markets workflows end-to-end.

Wall Street accelerates governance for tokenized securities

The Bernstein note landed amid continued progress in tokenization infrastructure—particularly around the capabilities needed for investors to exercise rights in tokenized formats. On Monday, brokerage infrastructure provider Alpaca and Broadridge Financial Solutions announced they integrated Broadridge’s shareholder governance tools into Alpaca’s Instant Tokenization Network.

Per the announcement, the integration adds functions such as proxy voting, investor communications, and regulatory disclosures for tokenized securities. The stated goal is to offer governance rights comparable to those available to holders of traditional shares.

That matters because governance is one of the most concrete “real world” hurdles for tokenized markets. It’s not enough to tokenize ownership; participants also need operational pathways for voting, disclosures, and other mechanisms that align with existing securities frameworks.

The integration follows a partnership disclosed last week between tokenization platform Securitize and investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald, aimed at developing infrastructure for blockchain-based initial public offerings and follow-on equity offerings while operating within existing US securities regulations. Together, these developments suggest an increasing focus on making tokenized instruments usable at scale, not just technically feasible.

Momentum in the tokenized stocks category is also reflected in market sizing. According to RWA.xyz, the asset class has grown to nearly $2 billion in market value this year, underscoring that tokenized equities are still early but no longer confined to isolated experiments.

What to watch as Robinhood’s thesis meets execution

Bernstein’s upgrade frames Robinhood’s roadmap around two overlapping themes: prediction markets as the fastest path to meaningful segment revenue growth, and tokenized equities as a longer-duration structural bet supported by infrastructure investments such as Robinhood Chain. The next phase for investors will be whether execution and regulatory readiness can keep pace with the market narrative.

Key signals to monitor include product rollout and performance in prediction markets, plus measurable progress toward wider tokenized equity adoption—particularly where governance tooling and compliant issuance infrastructure are required. With Wall Street simultaneously building the connective tissue for tokenized securities, the competitive advantage may shift toward companies that can operationalize these capabilities quickly and reliably.