Crypto World
Binance Sues WSJ for Defamation as DOJ Opens Iran Sanctions Probe
The exchange’s lawsuit was filed the same morning the Journal reported a new federal investigation into whether Iran used Binance to evade U.S. sanctions.
Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, has filed a lawsuit against Dow Jones, publisher of The Wall Street Journal, over a February 23 article that the company calls “false and defamatory.”
The filing comes as the Journal further reported today that the U.S. Department of Justice is investigating whether Iranian networks used the exchange to move funds in violation of American sanctions.
“We view this lawsuit as a necessary step to defend ourselves against misinformation, hold The Wall Street Journal accountable for prioritizing clicks over journalistic integrity, and address the significant reputational harm and business consequences that have resulted,” said Dugan Bliss, Binance’s Global Head of Litigation, in a company blog post.
The February article alleged that Binance dismantled an internal compliance investigation after its own investigators flagged $1.7 billion in crypto flows linked to entities connected to Iran-backed militant groups. The report also claimed that investigators who raised concerns were later suspended or fired.
Meanwhile, Fortune and The New York Times also cited anonymous sources and internal documents in reports claiming that Binance ignored internal warnings that sanctioned entities were using the platform to launder nearly $2 billion.
The reports triggered political fallout. U.S. Senator Richard Blumenthal opened an inquiry into Binance’s sanctions compliance, writing that “Binance appears to have ignored clear warning signs, knowingly allowed illicit accounts to operate, and even provided hands-on support to entities engaged in money laundering.”
Binance flatly denies the allegations and says it did not fire employees for raising compliance concerns. Binance also claims the $1.7 billion in flagged funds “did not originate at Binance and did not end at Binance,” passing through multiple independent intermediaries.
In 2023, Binance pleaded guilty to violating U.S. anti-money laundering and sanctions laws and agreed to pay $4.3 billion in penalties. Founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao also pleaded guilty and served four months in prison before receiving a presidential pardon in October 2025.
Binance previously sued Forbes over similar allegations in 2020 but dropped that case several months later.
The chip vulnerability makes it possible for hackers to decrypt affected Android smartphones, and steal data — including crypto wallet private keys.
Ledger said on Wednesday, March 11, that it has discovered a vulnerability that could affect as much as 25% of Android phones, letting hackers steal users’ private keys, according to a press release shared with The Defiant.
The hardware wallet company’s in-house white-hat security team, the Donjon, has disclosed a critical vulnerability in Android smartphones powered by MediaTek chips that allows an attacker to extract user data — including wallet seed phrases and PINs — in under a minute, even when the phone is off.
In a proof-of-concept test, the Donjon plugged a Nothing CMF Phone 1 into a laptop and, within 45 seconds, was able to recover the device’s PIN, decrypt its storage, and extract seed phrases from six major crypto wallet apps: Trust Wallet, Base, Kraken Wallet, Rabby, tangem, and Phantom.
Before the operating system of the MediaTek-powered Android device even loads, Ledger’s security team found that an attacker can connect over USB and steal the root cryptographic keys that ensure the phone’s full-disk encryption, per the release. The phone’s data can than be fully decrypted offline.
The vulnerability could affects phones using Trustonic’s Trusted Execution Environment (TEE), the release said, including the Solana Seeker phone.
“Smartphones were never designed to be vaults,” said Charles Guillemet, Ledger’s CTO, adding:
“If your crypto sits on a phone, it’s only as safe as the weakest link in that phone’s hardware, firmware, or software.”
Following the standard 90-day responsible disclosure process, Ledger said it reported the flaw to both MediaTek and Trustonic. MediaTek confirmed it delivered a fix to affected original equipment manufacturers in January.
Ledger advised users of potentially affected Androids to install the latest security updates immediately.
The news comes crypto-related theft has been on the rise. As The Defiant reported, 2025 was a record year for crypto crime, with North Korea alone stealing roughly $2 billion — including the $1.5 billion Bybit hack, the largest hack on record.
But the threat isn’t limited to centralized exchanges. In December, Trust Wallet confirmed $7 million was stolen via a malicious Chrome extension update that harvested seed phrases directly from users’ browsers. Hackers have also reportedly been increasingly using AI tools and phishing-as-a-service infrastructure to increase the number of attacks.
This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.
Mastercard has launched a global crypto partner program that initially brings together more than 85 companies across the digital asset and payments industries to collaborate on blockchain-based payment and settlement systems.
The initiative is designed to connect crypto companies, financial institutions and payments providers as digital assets begin playing a larger role in cross-border transfers, payouts and other financial services.
Participants include crypto exchanges, blockchain networks and infrastructure providers including Binance, Circle, Gemini, Paxos, Ripple, PayPal, Polygon, Solana, Crypto.com, MoonPay, Fireblocks and the Canton Network.
They will work with Mastercard on products that integrate blockchain-based systems with existing payment infrastructure. According to the announcement, the program will focus on use cases such as cross-border money movement, settlements and commercial payments.
In a post on X on Wednesday, Mastercard said “digital assets are entering a new phase,” with technologies that once operated alongside traditional finance increasingly being applied to practical uses such as cross-border remittances and business-to-business payments.
Mastercard said the initiative builds on its existing work in digital assets, including partnerships with crypto companies, programs supporting blockchain startups and crypto-linked payment cards.
Related: Mastercard, MetaMask launch US crypto card, debuting in New York
Visa and Mastercard deepen embrace of digital assets
Mastercard’s new partner program comes as major payments networks deepen their embrace of digital assets. Both Mastercard and Visa have launched initiatives in recent years aimed at integrating blockchain technology and stablecoins with traditional payment infrastructure.
In September, Visa announced a pilot that allows banks to pre-fund cross-border payments with stablecoins through its Visa Direct platform, enabling near-instant payouts.
About a month later, the company said it would expand its crypto services to support four additional stablecoins across four blockchains, in addition to stablecoins it already supports on networks including Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Stellar (XLM) and Avalanche (AVAX).
Rival Mastercard said about 30% of its transactions were tokenized in 2024 as it continued expanding efforts to integrate blockchain technology and digital assets into its payment infrastructure.
Earlier this month, Mastercard and SoFi Technologies teamed up to enable settlement using SoFi’s dollar-backed stablecoin, SoFiUSD, across Mastercard’s payments network.
The agreement allows issuers and acquirers to settle card transactions using the bank-issued digital dollar, with SoFi Bank planning to settle its own Mastercard credit and debit transactions in the stablecoin.
Magazine: The debate over Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over: Benjamin Cowen
ICP price jumped over 10% after the token was listed on Upbit, adding roughly $100 million to its market cap within hours.
Summary
- Internet Computer surged after South Korea’s largest exchange, Upbit, added ICP trading pairs.
- The listing opened access to Korean retail traders, driving a sharp rise in price and trading volume.
- ICP is now testing resistance near the $2.70 level, which aligns with its 200-day moving average.
Internet Computer (ICP) rallied on March 11 after its token ICP was listed on the South Korean exchange Upbit. The listing opened the door to a new pool of retail traders and triggered a quick surge in price and trading activity.
Upbit added ICP to its spot market with KRW, BTC, and USDT pairs, allowing Korean traders to buy the token directly with the local currency. Trading went live around 17:00 KST, bringing ICP into one of the most active retail crypto markets in Asia.
ICP price climbs after listing
Soon after the launch, ICP climbed sharply, rising about 20%. Prices moved from roughly $2.35–$2.40 earlier in the day to around $2.79, with the rally briefly pushing toward $2.90 in some trading sessions. The token was still up 10% at press time, trading at $2.74.
The move also lifted the project’s market value. At one point during the rally, around $100 million was added to ICP’s market capitalization within roughly an hour, as reported by CoinGecko. This shows the rapid jump in demand following the exchange listing.
Trading activity increased at the same time. Daily volume surged 867% as traders reacted to the news, rising as liquidity flowed in from the new market.
Listings on large exchanges in South Korea often trigger quick rallies because local traders prefer KRW trading pairs, which offer direct fiat access. Many tokens see sharp short-term spikes after gaining exposure on the platform.
ICP price technical analysis
ICP is is showing early signs of a bullish recovery after weeks of downward pressure. On the daily chart, ICP has bounced from a multi-week support zone near $2.05–$2.20, forming a consolidation base before printing a strong bullish breakout candle toward the $2.70 resistance zone.
The move comes after an extended decline that began in mid-January, marked by lower highs and lower lows. The current price action suggests the possibility of a short-term trend reversal, though confirmation depends on whether buyers can sustain momentum above key resistance levels.
Momentum indicators are starting to improve. ICP has surpassed its 50-day moving average at $2.38, indicating a return to short-term strength. .
As the price moved closer to the upper band, the Bollinger Bands grew wider, indicating greater short-term momentum. The relative strength index, which shows increasing buying pressure while still below overbought territory, has risen to about 60–63.
If buyers manage to hold above the $2.70 resistance, the next levels traders are watching sit around $2.90–$3.00, followed by $3.40–$3.50.
However, if the breakout fails, the market could pull back toward support near $2.38, then $2.20, with the $2.05 area being a key level that must hold to sop further decline.
Crypto World
WPA Hash unveils 2026 expansion strategy focused on long-term, stable crypto income for investors
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
WPA Hash has unveiled its 2026 growth roadmap, focusing on global infrastructure expansion, AI-driven optimization, and structured cloud-mining contracts.
Summary
- WPA Hash plans to scale energy-efficient mining data centers worldwide while deploying advanced ASIC hardware and cooling systems to improve uptime and performance.
- The platform is introducing tiered cloud-mining contracts and automated daily profit tracking, designed to provide predictable passive income opportunities for different investor levels.
- The 2026 strategy integrates AI-based resource optimization, predictive hardware maintenance, and multi-layer security architecture to enhance efficiency, reliability, and investor confidence.
WPA Hash has disclosed its 2026 growth plan with a specific goal. The company will offer a steady crypto-based income to investors all over the world on a long-term basis. It does not pursue hype in the short term but focuses on the strength of infrastructure and its disciplined growth.
This roadmap is an indication that the cloud mining industry is mature. Besides, it indicates a calculated movement towards foreseeable returns. WPA Hash identifies stability as a competitive advantage. Investors, therefore, end up having a systematized and prospective mining environment.
Global infrastructure expansion for consistent mining performance
WPA Hash intends to increase its mining data centers in the world. This will, in turn, improve the stability of the networks and their uptime. The company picks areas that are energy efficient and which the regulations are clear.
This will make hash power more spread globally. Consequently, there are no performance imbalances in mining facilities. In addition to that, advanced ASIC technology increases computational performance.
Highly advanced cooling systems will also be used to assist the longevity of hardware. Thus, the level of operational interruption is decreased. The investors enjoy consistent performance and forecastable income cycles.
Long-term mining contracts designed for reliable returns
WPA Hash has designed its contracts to focus on income stability. The company does not make unrealistic predictions and targets realistic results. Besides, individual contracts are developed based on sustainable profit modeling.
Clear dashboards enable the investors to monitor the profits on a daily basis. The users, therefore, remain up to date and assured. Besides this, automated payout systems are used to ensure that there is timely distribution.
The 2026 strategy consolidates the risk management procedures. Thus, investors have an opportunity to seek passive income on a more stable platform. WPA Hash is a blend of technological prowess and the controlled fiscal strategy.
Flexible mining contracts for every investor level
WPA Hash has the flexibility of contract terms to address various investment objectives. In every contract, there are specific sums of investments and overall net profit anticipations.
Below are the current flexible contract details:
Contract Type
Investment Amount
Total Net Profit
New User Experience Contract
$100
$100 + $6
Basic Computing Power (No. 1663)
$500
$500 + $30
Intermediate Computing Power (No. 2549)
$1,000
$1,000 + $156
Intermediate Computing Power (No. 2747)
$3,000
$3,000 + $756
Classic Computing Power (No. 2943)
$5,000
$5,000 + $1,650
Advanced Hashrate (No. 3640)
$15,000
$15,000 + $8,304
These contracts reflect structured earning opportunities. Furthermore, they align with WPA Hash’s long-term stability model.
To explore all available mining contracts, refer to the official site: http://www.wpahash.com/
AI-driven optimization and smart resource allocation
WPA Hash is a mining company that incorporates AI-based analytics into its mining activities. Consequently, the computing resources scale automatically to provide efficiency. The system continuously measures the real-time performance measures.
Predictive maintenance minimizes hardware failures. Therefore, there is little downtime in the operations. In addition, algorithmic changes maximize the output when the market is favorable.
This smart optimization improves the profitability in the long term. Thus, there is a less bumpy income generation process among investors.
Secure and transparent platform architecture
Security is also one of the main pillars of the 2026 growth strategy of WPA Hash. The platform has measures of multi-layer encryption. Consequently, the data and digital assets of the user are also secured.
Moreover, they monitor the possible threats in real-time using real-time systems. This is a proactive method that increases the stability of operation. In addition, rigid standards of compliance provide orderliness.
Clear reporting software generates investor trust. Therefore, WPA Hash has good credibility in the cloud mining industry.
Simple registration process with $15 welcome bonus
On boarding is made easier with WPA Hash. Registration does not require much time (a few minutes). In addition, new users are given a 15 dollar bonus after successful registration.
The following steps are easy to follow:
- Go to the official site on the web at http://www.wpahash.com/
- Click on the “Register” button.
- Provide your email address and come up with a strong password.
- Register and turn on your mining contract.
Upon registration, the bonus of 15 will automatically be credited. Thus, new purchasers will be able to start searching for contracting opportunities right away.
User-centric platform enhancements
The 2026 roadmap is also dedicated to the improvement of user experience. WPA Hash will upgrade the interface to a more navigable one. Easy onboarding will appeal to new world investors.
The platform provides transparency in all the steps. Moreover, there is the responsive support services, which enhance customer interaction. Such enhancements make the investment process professional and smooth.
WPA Hash overcame the obstacle between technology and accessibility by focusing on usability. As a result, novices and seasoned investors will be able to join.
A vision anchored in long-term stability
WPA Hash enters 2026 with a mission. The company is intended to provide investors worldwide with high and stable crypto-earnings.
WPA Hash enhances stability through worldwide growth, the use of AI, embracing renewable energy, and designed contract patterns. This will result in open and disciplined earning opportunities to investors.
The expansion plan of 2026 is about trust and loyalty. WPA Hash is still constructing a safe, effective, and scalable cloud mining environmental system to create a sustainable digital wealth-generating system.
To learn more about WPA HASH, visit the official website. Contact email: [email protected]
Disclosure: This content is provided by a third party. Neither crypto.news nor the author of this article endorses any product mentioned on this page. Users should conduct their own research before taking any action related to the company.
Ethereum price trades within a tight range as price approaches $2,127 resistance. Failure to break higher could trigger a rotation toward high-timeframe support near $1,580.
Summary
- Key Resistance: Ethereum testing $2,127 value area high.
- Weak Momentum: Rally occurring on low volume near Fibonacci–VWAP confluence.
- Downside Target: Rejection could rotate price toward $1,580 support.
Ethereum (ETH) price is currently trading within a well-defined consolidation range as the market continues to rotate between key technical levels. Price action has remained largely contained between the value area high and value area low, indicating that the market is still searching for direction following previous volatility.
As the current rally unfolds, Ethereum is approaching an important resistance region near $2,127, a level that could determine the next major move in price action. This zone has previously acted as a rejection point and is now being tested once again as the market attempts to push higher.
Ethereum price key technical points
- Key Resistance: Ethereum approaching $2,127 value area high resistance.
- Technical Confluence: Previous rejection occurred at 0.618 Fibonacci and VWAP cluster.
- Downside Target: Rejection could trigger rotation toward $1,580 high-timeframe support.
Ethereum’s current market structure reflects a classic range-bound environment, where price rotates between defined support and resistance levels. Within this structure, the value area high and value area low have continued to dictate the direction of short-term price movements.
The most recent rally has brought Ethereum back toward the $2,127 resistance level, which sits near the upper boundary of the current range. This level is technically significant because it previously triggered a rejection after price attempted to move higher earlier in the trading cycle.
That earlier rejection occurred at a zone where several technical indicators aligned, creating a strong cluster of resistance. Specifically, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level overlapped with the VWAP and anchored VWAP levels, forming a confluence zone where selling pressure quickly entered the market.
Meanwhile, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has proposed simplifying the network’s distributed staking infrastructure, arguing that running validator nodes should not require specialized technical expertise, signaling ongoing efforts to improve accessibility within the ecosystem.
When multiple technical indicators converge in the same area, they often form strong resistance levels that are difficult for price to break without significant buying momentum.
In Ethereum’s case, price has already attempted to reclaim this region but failed to establish sustained acceptance above it. This inability to reclaim the resistance cluster suggests that bullish momentum remains limited. While the market is currently attempting another rally toward the level, the move is occurring on relatively low trading volume, which raises concerns about the sustainability of the upward move.
Low-volume rallies often signal that the market lacks the necessary participation from buyers to push through major resistance levels. As a result, these moves can sometimes evolve into bull traps, where price temporarily moves higher before reversing sharply once sellers regain control.
If Ethereum experiences another rejection near the $2,127 resistance region, the market may continue rotating within the broader range structure. Range-bound markets typically oscillate between upper resistance and lower support levels as liquidity moves between buyers and sellers.
In this scenario, the next major technical level to watch would be the high-timeframe support near $1,580, which represents the lower boundary of the current trading range. This level has previously acted as a strong support zone where buyers stepped in to defend price. At the same time, BMNR shares recently climbed more than 4% on Monday, retesting the key $20 resistance level as Ethereum rebounded and the company continued adding to its holdings.
From a market structure perspective, a rejection at resistance followed by a move toward support would simply represent a continuation of the existing range dynamics rather than the start of a new bearish trend.
What to expect in the coming price action
Ethereum is now approaching a decisive resistance region near $2,127, where previous rejections occurred due to a confluence of 0.618 Fibonacci resistance and VWAP levels. If the current rally fails to reclaim this area with strong volume, the move could develop into a bull trap, leading to a rotational move lower.
In that case, Ethereum may continue trading within its established range, with the next downside target sitting near $1,580 high-timeframe support.
Despite a decline in the price of XRP in the last year, Ripple is expected to reach a valuation 25% higher than reported after a November 2025 funding round.
Ripple Labs reportedly plans to buy back up to $750 million worth of shares from investors and employees in a program set to give the company a $50 billion valuation.
According to a Wednesday Bloomberg report, Ripple plans to run a tender offer for the shares through April. The $750 million buyback program will reportedly value the company at $50 billion, 25% higher than the valuation assigned following its $500 million raise in November 2025. The company’s president, Monica Long, said at the time that Ripple had no plans to go public.
The reported buyback follows Ripple’s expansion of operations beyond the crypto industry, including through the $1.2 billion acquisition of non-bank prime broker Hidden Road and treasury management system provider GTreasury in October. Earlier this week, the company said that it would move forward with plans for a financial services license in Australia through the acquisition of a local payments firm.
On Monday, Ripple reported that it had processed more than $100 billion in transactions, with its stablecoin, Ripple USD (RLUSD) exceeding a $1 billion market capitalization since its launch in December 2024. The price of XRP (XRP) has fallen more than 53% in the previous six months, trading hands at $1.39 at the time of publication.
Related: Ripple expands stablecoin payments stack for banks, fintechs
Data from private shares platform Forge Global showed more than a 9% drop in Ripple’s private share price as of Wednesday.
Making progress with US national trust bank charter
In December, the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency announced that it had conditionally approved Ripple and other crypto companies for national trust bank charters. The company specifically said in its application that the charter would “not be a stablecoin issuer” for RLUSD.
Magazine: All 21 million Bitcoin is at risk from quantum computers
Risk Labs, the team behind cross-chain bridging protocol Across, is proposing to dissolve the project’s token-based DAO structure and transition its operations to a newly formed U.S. C-corporation.
“Across has moved billions and billions of assets between chains, and we have helped unify Ethereum and all its chains. I’m proud of what we’ve built, and I believe this proposal lets us double down on our future while benefiting all existing tokenholders,” co-founder Hart Lambur wrote on X.
Under the plan, ACX token holders would be given two options: exchange their tokens for equity in the new company at a 1:1 ratio, or sell their tokens for USDC at $0.04375 — a 25% premium over the trailing 30-day average price.
ACX surged 70% on the news to $0.06, or a $60 million valuation. However, the token is still down 96% from its all-time high of $1.69 in December 2024, according to Coingecko.
Holders with more than 5 million ACX will be able to convert directly to equity, while smaller holders can participate through a no-fee special purpose vehicle (SPV) structure.
Risk Labs framed the move as a response to friction the team has encountered while working with institutional and enterprise partners. The current token and DAO structure, the team said, has materially impacted its ability to close partnerships. A traditional corporate entity, they argue, would unlock new commercial opportunities and enable entry into enforceable contracts.
The protocol’s liquid assets, roughly equivalent to its current market cap, would be used to finance the buyout, with a six-month redemption window expected to open within three months of the proposal passing.
“This proposal is a temperature check, and nothing will be decided without dialogue and a formal DAO vote,” Lambur added.
Across raised $41 million last year from prominent investors, including Paradigm, Bain Capital Crypto, Coinbase Ventures, and Multicoin Capital.
Looking ahead, Lambur said Across plans to focus on stablecoin bridging and agentic payments, teasing “two more yet-to-be-announced deals that make moving money free for users.”
A new OpenClaw skill from CoinFello addresses a key security issue with AI agents using crypto.
The team behind AI agent CoinFello today announced the release of an open-source skill that lets AI agents securely connect to MetaMask and execute on-chain transactions, without ever handling a user’s private keys.
The skill lets OpenClaw-based personal AI agents, known as MoltBots, transact with designated amounts of crypto from an existing MetaMask wallet, without the wallet’s owner giving up custody of their private keys, per a press release shared with The Defiant.
The agent skill is built via the MetaMask Smart Accounts Kit, using ERC-4337 smart accounts and ERC-7710 delegations. CoinFello’s founder and CEO, known as Jacob C, was previously lead of operations at MetaMask.
The release addresses a core vulnerability in how most AI agent wallets currently operate: agents are typically given direct access to private keys or API credentials, which are then vulnerable to prompt injection attacks, per the release.
CoinFello says its approach allows users to grant agents only the narrowly scoped permissions needed for a specific task.
“If we want agents to participate meaningfully in the onchain economy, we need a security model that is better than handing an autonomous system a private key,” said Brett Cleary, CTO at CoinFello.
MetaMask didn’t publicly comment on CoinFello’s skill release today, but ahead of the skill’s debut at ETHDenver in February, MetaMask’s product team signaled support for the approach.
“We’re pleased to collaborate with the CoinFello team as they bring agent-driven experiences to users through the MetaMask Smart Accounts Kit,” Ryan McPeck, product lead at Consensys for the MetaMask Smart Accounts Kit, was quoted as saying at the time, adding:
“We see a future where AI agents can safely act on behalf of users using granular, transitive permissions that allow individuals to define how activity is executed on-chain.”
Supported capabilities include ERC-20 token swaps, bridging across Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) chains, NFT interactions, staking, lending, and multi-step trading strategies — all triggered via natural-language prompts. The skill is released under the MIT license, per the release.
The launch lands as the OpenClaw and MoltBot ecosystem has surged in recent months. As The Defiant reported, the viral growth of AI-only social platform Moltbook — mostly populated by OpenClaw agents — drove record token activity on Base-based launchpad Clanker earlier this year.
Yesterday, Axios reported that Meta, the parent company of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, has acquired Moltbook, bringing its two founders into Meta’s AI division.
This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.
PI bulls took over the initiative as the price exploded higher.
PI Network (PI) Price Predictions: Analysis
Key support levels: $0.20
Key resistance levels: $0.28
PI Breakout Turns into a Rally
Since the breakout from the downtrend in February, PI has entered a sustained rally that saw its price pump by over 80% since its most recent bottom. This is a significant change in the price action that shows interest has returned.
The buy volume also exploded with two major impulses, one in mid-February during the breakout and the second in early March that saw the resistance at 20 cents turn into a key support.
PI is Eying 28 Cents
With the support at 20 cents secured, bulls can aim to take PI to 28 cents next. In the past, this level acted as a key resistance and may see sellers return there. At the time of this post, the price is around 23 cents. Therefore, there is still plenty of room to go higher before that.
The most important thing right now is for buyers to consolidate their recent gains and defend the key support should sellers show up to avoid a loss of positive momentum.
Daily RSI is Overbought
The most recent spike above 20 cents has taken the daily RSI into the overbought area at 80 points. Since then, this momentum indicator has cooled down and fell under 70. Nevertheless, this is a warning sign that buyers could get overextended soon.
Still, as long as the RSI is making higher highs and higher lows, the initiative remains firmly in the hands of buyers and this indicator can stay overbought for quite some time until a correction materializes.
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Matt Hougan believes Bitcoin only needs 17% of a $121 trillion store-of-value market to reach a $1 million valuation.
Bitcoin could reach $1 million if it captures roughly 17% of a projected $121 trillion global store-of-value market, according to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management.
In a recent memo, he explained how long-term market expansion could support significantly higher prices for the digital asset.
Math Behind The Target
Hougan said the idea initially appears unrealistic because a $1 million valuation would require Bitcoin to increase roughly 14 times from its current price, a target he himself once dismissed in 2018, when BTC was trading near $4,000.
However, after studying the asset’s role in financial markets, he said the common mistake in evaluating Bitcoin’s long-term potential is treating the store-of-value market as fixed rather than expanding. Hougan described Bitcoin as an emerging digital store-of-value asset that competes with gold by allowing investors to hold wealth outside traditional fiat currencies and banking systems, although he acknowledged that the cryptocurrency remains more volatile and less established than the metal.
According to the Bitwise exec, estimating BTC’s potential value involves calculating the total size of the global store-of-value market, estimating the portion Bitcoin could capture, and dividing that value by the asset’s maximum supply of 21 million units. Based on current figures, Hougan said the store-of-value market totals just under $38 trillion, including about $36 trillion in gold and roughly $1.4 trillion in Bitcoin. This implies that BTC currently represents slightly less than 4% of that market.
Under those conditions, he said a $1 million BTC price would appear unrealistic because the cryptocurrency would need to capture more than half of the existing store-of-value market. He described this scenario as a “high bar.” However, the CIO noted that the market itself has grown significantly over time and may continue expanding. He pointed to the growth of the metal’s market capitalization over the past two decades, and added that when the first US gold exchange-traded fund launched in 2004, the global market was worth about $2.5 trillion.
Since then, the value of gold has increased to nearly $40 trillion, representing a compound annual growth rate of roughly 13%, driven by concerns about government debt levels, geopolitical uncertainty, loose monetary policy, and other macroeconomic factors. Hougan said that if the broader store-of-value market continues growing at a similar pace, it could reach approximately $121 trillion within the next decade.
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Under that scenario, Bitcoin would only need to capture about 17% of the market to reach a valuation of $1 million per BTC. Hougan acknowledged that this would still represent significant growth, as BTC’s current share remains around 4%, but said recent developments suggest that expanding adoption could make such a shift possible.
Key Risks
Despite the optimistic outlook, Hougan said there are risks that could prevent the scenario from unfolding. He noted that the store-of-value market may not continue growing at the same pace seen over the past two decades, which included events such as the global financial crisis, the widespread adoption of quantitative easing, and a prolonged period of low interest rates.
A slowdown in those trends could also lead to declining gold prices. Another possibility is that Bitcoin fails to capture additional market share.
At the same time, Hougan said it is also possible that current projections underestimate the asset’s potential if concerns about rising government debt intensify and investors increasingly turn to alternative stores of value. Under his base-case scenario, he said the store-of-value market would continue expanding while Bitcoin gradually increases its share. He added that such a combination could result in prices far above current levels.
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