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Binance users in France lose trading access after MiCA deadline

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Binance users in France lose trading access after MiCA deadline

Binance users in France can no longer trade on the platform after the exchange missed the European Union’s MiCA approval deadline. From July 1, Binance stopped offering several services in France and other European countries where it lacks authorization under the bloc’s new crypto rules.

Summary

  • Binance users in France can withdraw assets but cannot trade after MiCA approval delays.
  • Coinbase and OKX are targeting affected European users seeking licensed platforms under EU rules.
  • MiCA has narrowed Europe’s crypto market, giving approved exchanges a stronger compliance edge.

The change follows Binance’s wider MiCA service pause in Europe. French users can still withdraw assets, but spot and margin trading are no longer available. Binance previously served about 2 million users in France.

The company told affected users that “Your assets remain safe and secure,” according to earlier notices. It also encouraged users to move assets to a regulated platform or a personal wallet if they needed active access.

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The service limits came after the MiCA transition period ended. Crypto firms now need approval from one EU member state to serve clients across the bloc.

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French users move funds after trading halt

Some Binance users in France moved their crypto before the July 1 cutoff. Others waited for more clarity from the exchange. The platform still allows withdrawals, but users who want to trade must move funds elsewhere.

One user quoted by BFM Business said, “I repatriated my cryptos last weekend,” after choosing not to wait until the last minute. Another user said Binance left customers to handle the transfer process alone, adding, “You’re on your own.”

The case shows how a license delay can quickly change customer access. Many retail traders used Binance for active trading, leverage products, and quick crypto conversions. Those services are now limited in affected markets.

On-chain data cited in the report showed Binance recorded about $1.6 billion in net outflows over the past month. That figure remains small compared with about $114 billion in crypto assets still managed by the exchange.

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Licensed exchanges target affected traders

The Binance pause has opened room for approved rivals. Crypto.news reported thatCoinbase and OKX targeted Binance users before the MiCA deadline. Both firms promoted access to regulated services as users reviewed where to trade next.

Coinbase targeted users across several European markets, including France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, Poland, Sweden, and the U.K. OKX also promoted offers for eligible users in the European Economic Area.

The timing matters because MiCA has changed how exchanges compete in Europe. Licensed firms can promote service continuity. Platforms without approval must restrict covered services or seek a new licensing route.

Crypto.news also reported that Germany and France led the MiCA rollout. As of June 29, the EU had issued 244 valid MiCA crypto-asset service provider licenses.

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MiCA reshapes exchange access in Europe

MiCA is now the main rulebook for crypto service providers in the European Union. It covers exchanges, custodians, token issuers, and stablecoin providers. It also replaces many older national crypto rules with one EU-wide system.

The Binance case is one of the clearest tests of the new framework. The exchange says it wants to return with a license, but users in affected markets now have limited access until that happens.

The rule change has also affected stablecoins. Crypto.news reported that USDT was removed from regulated EU exchange order books after Tether did not seek MiCA authorization.

For users, the change is direct. Trading access now depends on whether an exchange holds MiCA approval. Binance remains open for withdrawals in affected markets, but normal trading depends on future authorization.

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Cardano News: ADA Price Just Gave Back Half Its 27% Weekly Rally, Are Whales About to Pull the Rug?

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Cardano News: ADA Price Just Gave Back Half Its 27% Weekly Rally, Are Whales About to Pull the Rug?

Cardano News: ADA price is bleeding. ADA is trading near $0.18, down roughly 3.5% in the last 24 hours, the third consecutive session of losses, and the derivatives data underneath is telling a sharper story than the candles alone.

Whether this is healthy consolidation after a punishing 27% weekly surge or the start of a structural rollover is the question every ADA position holder needs to answer before the next session closes.

CoinGlass data shows ADA futures Open Interest has dropped 8% in 24 hours to $434.34 million, a significant flush of leveraged exposure. The funding rate collapsed from 0.0093% to 0.0029% in the same window. Traders are no longer willing to pay a premium to hold ADA longs.

Source: Coinglass

Long liquidations totaled $1.26 million of the $1.66 million wiped across the derivatives book. Santiment data adds another layer: whale cohorts holding 100 million to 1 billion ADA have flatlined near 2.53 billion ADA since Thursday, with no accumulation signal visible.

Whales watching. Retail retreating. That combination rarely resolves to the upside without a catalyst.

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The broader macro sentiment across major crypto assets remains fragile, and ADA’s technical setup is now caught between a fading rally and a structural floor that sits considerably lower.

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Cardano News: Can ADA Price Hold $0.18 or Is a 20% Drop the Base Case?

ADA is trading around $0.18, sitting below its 50-day EMA at $0.1861 and well beneath its 200-day EMA at $0.2940. Both moving averages are now overhead resistance, not support.

A daily close back above $0.1861 is the minimum requirement to neutralize the current bearish bias; absent that, the structure stays negative.

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Volume context matters here: 24-hour turnover is running between $455M and $546M, depending on venue, which confirms this isn’t thin-air price action. Active positioning is underway; the direction just shifted.

The MACD is holding above its signal line, but the positive histogram is contracting, a classic early warning of momentum exhaustion. RSI sits at 56, rolling over before reaching overbought territory. That’s not a momentum failure yet, but it’s a quiet warning shot.

Three scenarios from here. Bull case: ADA reclaims $0.1861 on a daily close, volume picks back up, and the 27% weekly gain gets defended as a base for continuation toward $0.2940.

Base case: ADA chops in the $0.17–$0.19 band for several sessions as leveraged positioning bleeds out and whales wait for cleaner entry.

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Bear case, and the one the derivatives data is quietly flagging, is a decisive close below $0.18 that opens the door to the June 26 structural low at $0.1385, a downside risk of over 20% from current levels.

ADA has shown resilience at key levels before, but the current derivatives setup demands respect. If whale accumulation doesn’t resume this week, the base case drifts toward bearish.

Maxi Doge Targets Possible 1000x as Bullrun is Coming Back

When an established large-cap like ADA stalls post-rally with whales sidelined and derivatives flushing out, capital doesn’t disappear; it rotates.

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Some of it finds its way to early-stage presales, where the entry multiple hasn’t already been extracted by a 27% weekly move. That’s the trade logic worth examining here.

Maxi Doge (MAXI) is a meme token on Ethereum built around a specific cultural thesis: the 1000x leverage trading mentality, embodied by a 240-lb canine juggernaut who never skips leg day and never skips a pump.

The project has raised $4,823,777.41 in its presale at a current price of $0.0002827, with dynamic staking APY live for holders. Standout mechanics include holder-only trading competitions with leaderboard rewards, a retention structure that meme tokens rarely bother with, and a Maxi Fund treasury earmarked for liquidity and partnerships rather than purely marketing spend.

The meme-first, gym-bro viral marketing angle is either your thing or it isn’t (and that self-selection is actually part of the community-building strategy). Presale assets carry full loss risk; liquidity post-launch is never guaranteed.

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The post Cardano News: ADA Price Just Gave Back Half Its 27% Weekly Rally, Are Whales About to Pull the Rug? appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Vanguard Spent Years Fighting Crypto, Now It’s Planning for It

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Total Net Assets for Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Source: SoSoValue

Vanguard is hiring its first Head of Digital Assets to build a multi-year crypto roadmap for Personal Wealth clients. The roughly $12 trillion asset manager still has no plans to launch its own Bitcoin ETF.

The role appeared on Vanguard’s careers portal on July 6 under requisition 179858. It lists hybrid seats in Malvern, Dallas, Scottsdale, and Charlotte.

From Blocking Bitcoin ETFs to Hiring a Crypto Chief

The job description positions the hire as Vanguard’s senior subject matter expert for digital assets across Personal Wealth. The mandate spans products, operating models, risk, and engagement with regulators.

“The Head of Digital Assets will lead Vanguard Personal Wealth’s digital assets strategy, roadmap, and enterprise execution,” the offer stated.

The posting marks a sharp break from Vanguard’s earlier stance. The firm blocked spot Bitcoin ETFs from its brokerage platform when they launched in January 2024. Executives long dismissed crypto as speculative.

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In December 2025, however, Vanguard opened its platform to third-party crypto ETFs and mutual funds. The decision gave more than 50 million brokerage clients access to funds holding Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Solana (SOL).

The reversal came under Salim Ramji, who became Vanguard’s first externally hired CEO in July 2024. At BlackRock, he ran the iShares unit that launched the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). That fund alone held about $54 billion as of March 31, per an iShares fact sheet.

Why Vanguard Still Won’t Launch a Bitcoin ETF

Vanguard has never filed for a proprietary crypto ETF. The firm’s published guidance favors assets with transparent cash flows, and it offers crypto exposure only through third-party products, much like gold.

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BlackRock and Fidelity, in contrast, run their own spot Bitcoin funds. Competition among issuers has since fueled a Bitcoin ETF fee war that pushed expense ratios as low as 0.14%. Meanwhile, Schwab’s index fee cuts raised the cost of standing still in traditional products.

Client demand also remains measurable. US spot Bitcoin ETFs held $74.37 billion in net assets as of July 2. That day, Bitcoin ETF inflows returned with $221.72 million after a 10-day outflow streak. As of this writing, total net assets stood at $77.32 billion.

Total Net Assets for Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Source: SoSoValue
Total Net Assets for Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Source: SoSoValue

Therefore, the new role looks broader than any single fund. A multi-year Personal Wealth roadmap could span custody, advised portfolios, and tokenization across global finance rather than a product launch.

The open question is whether the roadmap stays exploratory or produces client-facing offerings. The chief’s first moves may show which way Vanguard leans.

The post Vanguard Spent Years Fighting Crypto, Now It’s Planning for It appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Ctrl Wallet shuts down after exploit, urges users to move funds

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DxSale exploit drains $7.3M in BNB through hidden contract backdoor

Ctrl Wallet has announced the permanent shutdown of its services after a recent security exploit, giving users until Aug. 3 to move their crypto assets before core wallet functions go offline.

Summary

  • Ctrl Wallet will permanently shut down on Aug. 3 and has urged users to move funds before wallet services end.
  • Users can still recover assets later by importing their 12- or 24-word recovery phrase into compatible wallets.
  • The shutdown follows a recent Cardano-related exploit and comes amid a string of crypto wallet and bridge security incidents.

Ctrl Wallet said in a blog post published Tuesday that it will disable sending, receiving, swapping and all other wallet functions from Aug. 3, leaving users with only the ability to export their recovery phrases.

The company also confirmed it will immediately stop new downloads and remove the application from browser extension and mobile app stores as part of the shutdown process.

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The decision comes just weeks after Ctrl Wallet disclosed a security incident affecting some Cardano wallets. On June 23, the wallet provider said it had placed parts of its platform into temporary maintenance mode while engineers investigated the issue and worked to protect user assets.

Users have one month to transfer assets

Ahead of the shutdown deadline, Ctrl Wallet has strongly advised customers to move their funds to another wallet or exchange instead of waiting until services are disabled.

According to the company, users who do not transfer assets before Aug. 3 will still be able to access their funds by importing their 12-word or 24-word recovery phrase into another compatible wallet.

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Ctrl Wallet identified MetaMask, Trust Wallet and Phantom as compatible alternatives for importing recovery phrases. The company stressed that users should securely back up their seed phrases before attempting any migration.

Alongside the shutdown notice, Ctrl Wallet warned that there will be no migration token, token swap, or airdrop linked to the closure. The wallet provider urged customers to ignore social media posts or websites claiming to offer compensation or rewards tied to the shutdown, cautioning that such offers are likely to be scams.

Formerly known as XDEFI Wallet, Ctrl Wallet lists more than 650,000 monthly users and a workforce of between 11 and 50 employees on its LinkedIn profile. The wallet supported more than 2,500 blockchain networks, including Cardano and Midnight.

Security incidents continue across crypto platforms

The shutdown follows a transition announced on April 29, when Ctrl Wallet said it had come under the Emurgo umbrella and that its multichain technology would continue through the SecondFi wallet. SecondFi, a self-custodial wallet developed by Emurgo after rebranding from Yoroi in April 2026, later suffered its own security incident.

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On June 24, attackers exploited a vulnerability in SecondFi that resulted in the theft of about 16 million ADA, worth roughly $2.4 million at the time.

SecondFi later said it had secured about 129 million ADA through emergency measures, transferred those funds to an independent third-party custodian, and introduced a recovery process covering the 374 affected wallet addresses.

The latest shutdown also comes during a series of security breaches affecting crypto infrastructure. As previously reported by crypto.news, blockchain security firm Blockaid detected an active exploit against the DeFi platform Summer.fi that had drained about $6 million before the attack was disclosed.

Separately, Taiko urged users to withdraw assets from all bridges on its network after confirming its chain state verification mechanism had been compromised, while Blockaid estimated losses from the related ERC20 Vault attack at more than $1 million.

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Days earlier, interoperability protocol Axelar disabled its Secret Network bridge connections after an exploit led to the loss of roughly $4.7 million in bridged assets.

According to Axelar, early findings indicated the issue originated in the Secret Network’s ICS-20 smart contract rather than Axelar’s core infrastructure, prompting the protocol to suspend affected connections while its investigation continues.

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EDX Markets raises $76 million in Series C funding round led by SBI Holdings

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Pharos raises $44 million in Series A to power real-world asset tokenization

EDX Markets, an institutional cryptocurrency trading platform, said it raised $76 million in a Series C funding round led by SBI Holdings.

The company plans to use the funds to develop new products and grow internationally. EDX operates an institution-only crypto marketplace that separates trading from custody and settlement through a central clearinghouse. The model is designed to reduce counterparty risk and mirrors the structure used in traditional financial markets.

SBI Holdings has been one of Japan’s most active financial groups in crypto. Its SBI VC Trade unit offers access to Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin in Japan, while SBI Shinsei Trust Bank recently issued JPYSC, a yen-denominated stablecoin developed with Startale Group.

Last month, SBI agreed to acquire crypto exchange Bitbank for 46.7 billion yen ($289 million), adding to its existing SBI VC Trade platform.

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EDX has been moving beyond spot trading. The firm earlier this year introduced FlowConnect, a crypto-as-a-service product that allows financial firms to offer crypto trading to their customers.

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NOBLE Endorses CLARITY Act as Major County Sheriffs Drop Opposition

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The CLARITY Act picked up its first major public law enforcement endorsement on July 1 when the National Organization of Black Law Enforcement Executives (NOBLE) formally backed the bill, and two days later Major County Sheriffs of America withdrew its opposition entirely, shifting to neutral.

Two organized law enforcement bodies moving constructively on the same digital asset legislation within 72 hours is not coincidental, it reflects deliberate outreach and signals that the Senate floor fight is now a live negotiation, not a procedural formality.

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NOBLE’s Endorsement: What the Organization Said and Why It Matters

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NOBLE’s July 1 letter to Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer was addressed to the two officials who control Senate floor timing, a deliberate signal that the endorsement was meant to move the legislative calendar, not just the public narrative.

The organization, which represents more than 3,000 members across nearly 60 chapters worldwide including chief executives and command-level officials, cited four specific provisions driving its support: expanded regulatory obligations on digital asset businesses, enhanced forfeiture authorities, new transparency requirements, and oversight rules for digital asset kiosks.

Critically, NOBLE addressed the enforcement-gap argument head-on. The organization stated explicitly that the legislation does not alter the federal criminal authorities investigators and prosecutors rely on daily, money laundering, unlicensed money transmitting, conspiracy, aiding and abetting, and sanctions enforcement statutes all remain intact under the bill’s current text.

That framing directly rebuts the criticism that had dogged earlier CLARITY Act drafts, where anti-corruption groups argued the bill could create exploitable gaps in illicit-finance enforcement.

Stand With Crypto, the crypto advocacy group representing more than 2.6 million U.S. supporters, called NOBLE the first major law enforcement organization to publicly endorse the CLARITY Act.

That distinction matters for Senate Democrats who have been most vocal about enforcement preservation, an endorsement from a respected law enforcement body with NOBLE’s institutional standing provides political cover that no industry lobbying group can supply.

“Law enforcement voices are engaging constructively on digital asset legislation, and the first major endorsement is on the books.”

Stand With Crypto said this after the NOBLE letter was made public, per reporting on the NOBLE endorsement development.

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Discover: The Best Crypto to Diversify Your Portfolio

Major County Sheriffs Move to Neutral on Section 604

Major County Sheriffs of America, whose members collectively serve more than 130 million citizens through offices employing at least 700 personnel each, sent its own letter on July 3, this one addressed to Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott and ranking member Elizabeth Warren.

MCSA’s position shift from opposition to neutral turned on Section 604, the provision incorporating the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, which establishes liability protections for blockchain developers and service providers who do not custody or control digital assets.

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Close-up of a man's uniform with a security badge and radio.
Photo by Kindel Media on Pexels

MCSA said continued review and discussions around Section 604 clarified how the administration interprets and plans to implement that provision.

The organization stopped short of endorsement, it explicitly noted room to further strengthen the legislation to support both responsible innovation and state and local law enforcement needs, but it withdrew formal opposition.

Removing an active opponent from the ledger is not the same as gaining a supporter, but in a Senate that requires 60 votes for floor passage, eliminating organized resistance from an association representing major population centers carries real procedural weight.

Don’t Miss Out on Our $1,000 USDT Airdrop on ByBit

The post NOBLE Endorses CLARITY Act as Major County Sheriffs Drop Opposition appeared first on Cryptonews.

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AI trade loses steam as Samsung earnings fail to lift chip stocks amid open source AI shift

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AI trade loses steam as Samsung earnings fail to lift chip stocks amid open source AI shift

The AI trade, which incorporates semiconductors and memory stocks, is showing signs of fatigue as investors reassess whether the extraordinary spending boom on chips and data centers can be sustained.

Semiconductor and memory stocks such as Micron Technology (MU) and Sandisk (SNDK) came under heavy pressure on Tuesday, after Samsung Electronics (005930) reported record second-quarter earnings but missed revenue estimates.

Shares still fell nearly 7%, extending a broader selloff across AI-linked chipmakers. Concerns are growing that hyperscalers could slow AI infrastructure spending.

Meanwhile, rival SK Hynix is down 25% from its all-time high ahead of its U.S. listing this week, a deal that is also drawing investor capital away from existing chip stocks.

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Adding to the changing narrative, China’s Zhipu AI, one of the country’s leading artificial intelligence startups, is exploring a custom AI chip as demand for its open-source GLM models surges, highlighting the rise of lower-cost AI ecosystems built around domestic hardware rather than cutting-edge US chips.

The shift comes just weeks after SpaceX’s blockbuster IPO and amid elevated valuations across AI-related stocks. Investors are increasingly questioning whether the next phase of AI will require ever more GPUs and high-bandwidth memory, or whether more efficient models will reduce demand for the infrastructure that has powered the AI rally.

Over the past year, bitcoin and the broader crypto market have suffered from the AI trade, and if investor enthusiasm for AI continues to fade, crypto bulls could see capital rotate back into digital assets.

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Analysts see more upside for SpaceX as post-IPO research begins

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Analysts see more upside for SpaceX as post-IPO research begins

Wall Street analysts have begun coverage of SpaceX (SPCX) following the expiration of the 25-day quiet period after the company’s June initial public offering (IPO), with nearly every major brokerage launching their coverage with a bullish rating.

The aerospace and satellite company, which held 18,712 bitcoin as of March 31, went public in June, raising $75 billion in one of the year’s largest IPOs. Shares were priced at $135 in the offering. The stock was trading at $150.93 on Tuesday, down more than 6% from recent post-listing highs but still above its IPO price.

The two lead underwriters, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, both initiated coverage with buy-equivalent ratings. Goldman analyst Eric Sheridan set a price target of $205, while Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas assigned a $300 target.

They were joined by analysts at Bank of America, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, Macquarie, RBC Capital Markets, UBS and Wells Fargo, all of which launched coverage with buy or equivalent recommendations.

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The most optimistic forecast came from Raymond James, where analyst Brian Gesuale initiated coverage with a Strong Buy rating and an $800 price target.

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Vanguard opens search for digital assets leader in sign of evolving crypto strategy

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Vanguard opens search for digital assets leader in sign of evolving crypto strategy

Vanguard has opened the search for a head of digital assets, creating a senior role that would oversee the firm’s strategy for cryptocurrencies and blockchain-based financial technology.

The position, listed within Vanguard Personal Wealth, calls for an executive to develop the firm’s digital asset vision, identify business opportunities and lead execution across product, technology, operations, legal and compliance teams. The candidate will also advise senior leadership on changes in digital asset markets, represent Vanguard in discussions with regulators and industry groups and help shape the firm’s long-term approach.

It also highlights other areas of the ecosystem, including tokenization, stablecoins, digital wallets, custody, blockchain-enabled settlement and operating models as areas the executive will evaluate, as well as determining whether Vanguard should build new capabilities internally, partner with third parties or delay entering certain parts of the market.

The search marks another step in Vanguard’s gradual shift toward digital assets after years of resisting the sector. The asset manager, which oversees roughly $10 trillion, remained one of crypto’s largest institutional skeptics while peers such as BlackRock, Fidelity and Franklin Templeton rolled out spot bitcoin ETFs and other blockchain initiatives.

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1win Announces the Expansion of Its Web3 Ecosystem with the Upcoming Launch of 1win Token

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[PRESS RELEASE – Curaçao, Willemstad, July 7th, 2026]

Crypto casino 1win is expanding its Web3 strategy with the development of its native ecosystem token, 1win Token ($1WIN). The initiative combines a dual-chain infrastructure, Telegram-based user engagement, and an ecosystem designed to connect platform activity with token utility.

The upcoming launch represents another step in the growing convergence of blockchain technology and online entertainment. Rather than positioning cryptocurrency solely as a payment method, the company is developing a broader ecosystem in which digital assets play an active role across platform services.

Unlike traditional platform tokens that primarily function as payment instruments, 1win Token has been designed with a strong focus on iGaming utility. The token will be integrated across the 1win platform, allowing users to utilize $1WIN in casino games, sports betting, exclusive lotteries, and future platform services.

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The project introduces two independent tokenomic mechanisms designed to support the long-term sustainability of the ecosystem. Through its Weekly Buyback program, 1win will use 10% of the revenue generated from gameplay conducted with $1WIN to repurchase tokens from the open market. The buyback mechanism is intended to create continuous market demand while reinforcing the token’s long-term utility within the ecosystem.

Alongside this model, the ecosystem implements a Daily Token Burn mechanism. Every day, 10 percent of all 1win Token spent across supported platform products – including games, lotteries and other ecosystem activities – will be permanently removed from circulation. By gradually reducing the total token supply over time, this mechanism is designed to reinforce long-term scarcity while supporting the broader economic balance of the ecosystem.

Beyond token utility, the launch introduces several benefits for both platform users and cryptocurrency enthusiasts. Players will have access to crypto deposit bonuses of up to 600 percent, with a combined value of up to $2,000, while cryptocurrency deposits and withdrawals are expected to be processed in less than 90 seconds. Token holders will also gain access to exclusive lotteries and dedicated airdrop campaigns through the 1win Telegram Mini App, where users can complete tasks, participate in community activities, and prepare for future token distribution events.

To keep up with the 1win Token news and updates, users can follow on X.com (@1winToken) and other social media platforms.

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About 1win

1win is an international iGaming platform offering sports betting, online casino entertainment, and cryptocurrency payment solutions to users worldwide. Since its launch, the company has continued to invest in blockchain technologies and Web3 products, including the development of 1win Token and its Telegram Mini App ecosystem.

Website: https://1wintoken.com

The post 1win Announces the Expansion of Its Web3 Ecosystem with the Upcoming Launch of 1win Token appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Over 50% of Bitcoin’s Supply Held at Loss Signals Cycle Bottom is Close: K33

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Over 50% of Bitcoin's Supply Held at Loss Signals Cycle Bottom is Close: K33

The growing Bitcoin supply held at a loss suggests that the crypto market is nearing its cycle bottom, according to digital asset brokerage company K33.

Over 50% of all Bitcoin (BTC) is currently held at a loss, K33 said in a report published Tuesday.

K33 added that because the past year’s bull market was less extreme than previous cycles, the current downturn could also be less severe.

Historically, when more than half of the circulating supply has been underwater, Bitcoin has tended to be in the late stages of a bear market, making the metric one of several indicators analysts use to assess whether selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion.

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Percent of the circulating BTC supply in loss. Source: K33

Past Bitcoin cycles bottomed within weeks of the signal

K33 said previous bear markets typically bottomed within weeks of more than half of Bitcoin’s supply being held at a loss.

During the 2017 bear market cycle, Bitcoin bottomed 31 days after over 50% of the BTC supply was held at a loss. Similarly, Bitcoin bottomed 23 days after half the supply was held at a loss in November 2018 and about 13 days after the same development in November 2022.

The 2014 cycle was an outlier, as Bitcoin only bottomed 101 days after half the supply was held at a loss. It was also the only cycle in which Bitcoin was lower one year after the signal, falling 25%.

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Bitcoin during periods when 50% of the supply was held at a loss and its annual returns table for the following years. Source: K33

However, the report noted that large sellers, such as spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) holders, could make this cycle behave differently from previous ones because of their impact on price.

The spot Bitcoin ETFs registered two consecutive days of inflows, with $265 million on Monday, but saw $4.51 billion in net outflows in June, marking their worst month on record, according to Farside Investors data.

Related: Strategy sells 3,588 Bitcoin for $216M to fund dividends, keeps $2.55B reserve intact

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Bitcoin risk appetite signals imminent bottom: Block Scholes

Other indicators are also suggesting an imminent bottom, such as the Block Scholes Risk Appetite Index, which measures bullish and bearish momentum in digital assets.

BTC risk appetite index and spot BTC price. Source: Block Scholes

Bitcoin’s risk appetite fell to a low of -1.27 on July 3 and has since bounced higher, which historically preceded a median spot return of 12% over the following 100 days, according to the eight prior instances identified by Block Scholes.

“Historically, such a move has preceded a more bullish outperformance in spot prices and could lead to further allocation towards risk assets such as crypto,” a spokesperson for Block Scholes told Cointelegraph. 

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Magazine: Bitcoin slides to $58K, XRP hits $1 but onchain data promising: Market Moves

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