Crypto World
Bitcoin $150K Calls Drying Up, Santiment Says That’s Healthy
Bitcoin market sentiment has cooled as speculative euphoria ebbs, according to a weekly assessment by Santiment. The analytics firm notes that calls for BTC to sprint into uncharted territory — with bold targets ranging from $150,000 to $200,000, or even a drop to $50,000–$100,000 — have faded from the discourse. The shift away from meme-driven optimism is framed as a healthier sign for the market, suggesting retail buyers are retreating from extreme projections. While price action has not produced a definitive trend, the combination of cooling FOMO and mixed on-chain signals points to a more cautious environment. Bitcoin previously surged to around $126,100 in October before sliding into a downtrend that persisted through year-end.
Key takeaways
- Calls for extraordinary BTC targets are fading, signaling a rebalanced risk appetite.
- Bitcoin traded near $60,000 on Feb. 6 and later rose toward the mid-$60s, reaching about $67,800 at the time of publication.
- Social sentiment around BTC has shifted from extreme bearishness to neutral, complicating short-term trading decisions.
- The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained in Extreme Fear, underscoring persistent caution among investors.
- On-chain activity shows warning signs, with declining transaction volume, fewer active addresses, and slower network growth suggesting dormancy rather than expansion.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC
Sentiment: Neutral
Price impact: Positive. Bitcoin’s bounce back toward the mid-$60k range provides a modest near-term price lift after February’s dip.
Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. The combination of softened sentiment signals and dwindling on-chain activity argues for a cautious stance rather than aggressive positioning.
Market context: The mood around BTC sits at a crossroads between a cooler speculative outlook and a still-fragile risk-off backdrop. With daily trading volumes and on-chain participation cooling, the market appears to be testing whether the recent price appreciation can translate into sustainable user activity or whether it remains a symptom of speculative liquidity rather than fundamental growth.
Why it matters
The Santiment analysis captures a moment when the crypto narrative shifts from high-conviction price fantasies to a more grounded view of Bitcoin’s fundamentals and macro-driven price action. On one hand, prominent proponents previously predicting multi-hundred-thousand-dollar BTC prices have softened their stance, acknowledging the need for a longer, steadier runway. On the other hand, even as price nudges higher, traders face a paradox: sentiment has improved enough to reduce panic-driven moves, yet on-chain metrics tell a story of reduced network activity, which historically can precede meaningful price moves or retests of support levels.
Bitcoin’s price trajectory has been a central point of focus for market participants. After a push to the early 2025 high, BTC then retraced into late-year weakness, a pattern that left many investors cautious about the durability of any rebound. The February dip to around $60,000 was followed by a tentative recovery into the mid-$60k area, with the latest readings showing the asset hovering near $67,847 according to CoinMarketCap. This price action, set against fading meme-driven enthusiasm, underscores a market that may require clearer catalysts before committing to a fresh up-leg or a renewed consolidation phase.
From a sentiment perspective, the shift from “extreme bearishness” toward a neutral stance can both help and hinder decision-making. While neutral sentiment reflects a cooling of speculative frenzy, it can also reduce the clarity of trading signals, making it harder for participants to determine whether a breakout is genuine or simply a pause in the current range. Santiment cautions that relying solely on sentiment metrics in such environments can be misleading, urging traders to balance social indicators with real-time on-chain data and price action.
On-chain indicators add another layer of nuance. Transaction volume, active addresses, and network growth have all shown a tendency to trend downward, a sign that the network is being used less frequently. In practical terms, this dormancy can imply that a large portion of market participants are waiting on the sidelines, rather than actively expanding utilization or driving new demand for block space. While this is not inherently bearish, it does suggest that price momentum might rely more on liquidity and macro factors than on fundamental network-driven demand in the near term.
Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has persisted in the Extreme Fear zone, a reminder that risk appetite remains fragile even as prices recover from mid-wFebruary lows. Such readings often reflect a market where traders are wary of mispricing or sudden reversals, preferring to observe and react rather than to chase momentum. The juxtaposition of a modest price uptick with cautionary social sentiment and waning on-chain activity paints a complex picture for investors weighing the odds of a sustained rally versus a prolonged consolidation or a deeper pullback.
Beyond BTC-specific dynamics, the broader market context remains relevant. A cooler sentiment regime can coincide with tighter liquidity and a more selective investment climate, impacting capitalization on new products, exchange-traded products, and institutional allocations. In this environment, investors may favor risk-managed strategies and deeper due diligence over rapid entry, even as favourable macro cues or favorable regulatory developments could tilt the balance toward a renewed upswing.
What to watch next
- Monitor on-chain metrics for signs of renewed active participation (transaction volume, number of active addresses, network growth) over the next few weeks.
- Track BTC price action around key levels near $68,000–$70,000 to identify potential breakouts or resistance tests.
- Watch sentiment indicators for any renewed swing toward bullishness or a return to fear-driven selling pressures.
- Observe any shifts in macro liquidity and risk sentiment that could provide a catalyst for a sustained move higher or a pullback.
Sources & verification
- Santiment: Weekly sentiment overview noting the decline in extreme price targets and the shift in retail optimism.
- CoinMarketCap: Bitcoin price data showing a dip near $60,000 in early February and a later level around $67,800 at publication time.
- Alternative.me: Crypto Fear & Greed Index reading at 8 (Extreme Fear).
- On-chain indicators referenced by Santiment: transaction volume, active addresses, and network growth trends.
- The broader discussion of BTC price dynamics and sentiment shifts summarized in Santiment’s weekly report.
Market reaction and key details
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has navigated a climate where speculative frenzy has cooled, and investors are increasingly data-driven in their approach. Santiment’s latest weekly note highlights a notable retreat in calls for explosive BTC appreciation or drastic downside, signaling a more tempered market outlook. The shift away from outsized targets underscores a broader recalibration of risk as participants weigh the likelihood of a sustained rally against the possibility of choppy, range-bound trading.
The historical price arc serves as a reference point for the current mood. After peaking around $126,100 in October, BTC entered a downtrend that tempered expectations for a rapid, uninterrupted ascent. The subsequent months reinforced a picture of a market sensitive to macro headlines and liquidity cycles, rather than a purely driven by hyperbolic optimism. In early February, the asset found its footing around the $60,000 mark, only to recover modestly in the mid-$60,000s and hover near $67,800 at the time of writing. This sequence illustrates how price and sentiment can diverge in the short term, with cautious optimism coexisting with measured risk-taking.
On the sentiment front, the recovery from prior “extreme bearishness” suggests participants are beginning to consider price action in a more balanced light. Yet the absence of a clear, confirmatory trend means traders face a dilemma: whether to read the current neutral stance as a precursor to a durable rally or as a temporary pause before renewed volatility. Santiment emphasizes that sentiment metrics should not be the sole basis for decisions in such conditions; instead, they should be interpreted in the context of on-chain activity and price momentum to form a holistic view.
Despite the more constructive narrative around BTC, on-chain metrics offer a cautionary note. The indicators highlighted—transaction volume, active addresses, and network growth—are showing signs of deceleration. This pattern points to a market where a large share of participants is currently waiting on the sidelines, rather than actively expanding network usage or driving new adoption. While not inherently bearish, the data signals that any upside momentum may depend on a fresh round of sustained utility and user participation beyond mere price speculation.
Additionally, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index’s Extreme Fear reading reinforces the sense that risk tolerance remains constrained. In such an environment, even favorable price moves might be treated with scepticism by some investors who seek stronger proof of durable demand or clearer catalysts before committing additional capital. Taken together, the data landscape from Santiment — coupled with the price action and the on-chain signals — depicts a market undergoing a cautious recalibration rather than a wholesale paradigm shift toward new all-time highs.
On-chain sleuth ZachXBT has escalated a critique of Circle, the issuer behind the USDC stablecoin, contending that the company has failed to freeze or blacklist roughly $420 million in illicit fund flows since 2022. Circle can freeze assets and blacklist wallets, but ZachXBT argues that the amount of action taken has been minimal in several high-profile cases, including ones tied to North Korea-linked actors, and across multiple hack-and-fraud episodes.
The allegations come amid a broader conversation about the responsibilities of centralized service providers in a crypto ecosystem where illicit activity still flows through centralized rails. ZachXBT frames the issue as one of real-world consequences for users and ecosystems when law enforcement requests and private-sector flags collide with a company’s implementation practices.
“Nine figures were lost from the ecosystem because of repeated inaction across three years on law enforcement requests, private sector requests, and their own infrastructure. The $420 million-plus only accounts for major public cases. The real figure is likely significantly higher.”
Cointelegraph reached out to Circle for comment; as of publication, no immediate response had been received.
Key takeaways
- ZachXBT asserts Circle has not frozen or blacklisted roughly $420 million in illicit USDC flows since 2022, a figure derived from publicly documented cases he tracks.
- Alleged examples include $9 million in USDC linked to the GMX hack in July 2025, which ZachXBT says Circle did not freeze, and $232 million in illicit flows tied to the Drift Protocol incident, where USDC was moved in multiple transactions before action was taken.
- Circle has taken recognizably proactive steps in some cases, such as freezing USDC held by Tornado Cash addresses (sanctioned by OFAC) in 2022, and it has signaled interest in reversible or amendable transaction models for hacks and fraud.
- The discussion feeds into a broader debate about the gatekeeping role of centralized issuers and custodians in a largely decentralized ecosystem, with online discourse spotlighting how enforcement and technology intersect.
What ZachXBT is pointing to—and why it matters
The core of the critique rests on a pattern ZachXBT describes as inconsistent or delayed action by Circle in the face of illicit flows. He highlights several high-profile incidents where USDC moved through centralized rails during or after a hack or fraud event, arguing that Circle’s response in some cases was insufficient to stop or reverse the movement of stolen or fraudulently obtained funds.
Among the episodes cited are the GMX exchange hack in July 2025, which involved illicit transfers of USDC that, according to ZachXBT, were not frozen in a timely manner. In another incident, the Cetus DEX breach in May 2025 led to roughly $200 million in USDC being converted to ETH, with Circle allegedly failing to block or freeze the involved addresses in the moment. A further instance involved the Drift Protocol hack, in which a six-hour window saw attackers move funds from USDC to ETH across numerous transactions, yet Circle reportedly did not intervene swiftly enough to halt those movements.
Beyond individual cases, ZachXBT frames the issue as systemic. He argues that a sustained pattern of inaction—despite law enforcement requests, private-sector notices, and the company’s own infrastructure signals—erodes trust in centralized risk controls and undermines the resilience of the broader ecosystem. The gist, he suggests, is that the cost of inaction is borne by ordinary users who rely on stablecoins for legitimacy, accessibility and liquidity in day-to-day trading and transacting.
Circle’s actions and the evolving debate over reversible transactions
The circle of debate around Circle has been widening over the past year. In September 2025, Circle’s president Heath Tarbert disclosed that the company was exploring “reversible” USDC transactions—an option that could allow funds to be rolled back or amended in response to hacks, theft and fraud. The concept would represent a fundamental shift in stablecoin risk management, offering a remedy in cases where illicit flows slip through conventional controls.
Circle has not shied away from taking action in certain circumstances. The issuer has publicly frozen USDC funds and blacklisted wallets tied to Tornado Cash addresses, a move aligned with OFAC sanctions in 2022. These steps demonstrate that Circle is willing to intervene actively when inputs from regulators or enforcement agencies align with its risk-mremediation framework. How a reversible-system would interact with existing sanctions regimes and private-sector notices remains a topic of intense discussion among auditors, exchanges and users.
Context, risks and the road ahead for investors and builders
The conversation around Circle’s approach sits at the intersection of compliance, user protection and market structure. Proponents of stronger on-chain controls argue that clear, enforceable standards help reduce the gatekeeping risk that centralized entities pose to users who operate across permissioned and permissionless ecosystems. Critics caution that heavy-handed or opaque asset-containment tools could introduce new vectors for market manipulation or hamper legitimate liquidity flows, underscoring the tension between security and permissionless innovation.
For investors and builders, the key questions are where the boundaries lie between legitimate enforcement and overreach, and how policy and technology evolve to address new attack vectors. The incidents cited by ZachXBT underscore that even widely used stablecoins can become flashpoints for debates about responsibility, transparency and accountability among the parties that stand between users and the crypto economy—issuers, exchanges, and custodians alike.
Public commentary from the crypto community—including observers who track on-chain activity—has highlighted the role of centralized actors as potential chokepoints in the flow of illicit funds. Some commentators have pointed to the need for more robust, verifiable compliance signals embedded in stablecoins, while others argue that the best way forward is to design systems with stronger, trust-minimized fraud detection and response capabilities that do not rely solely on centralized intervention.
What to watch next
Key questions remain unsettled: Will Circle move from exploratory reversible transactions toward a concrete, auditable framework for rollback or remediation in hacks? How will regulatory expectations shape Circle’s risk controls and the timing of asset freezes or blacklists? And will further public reporting or independent audits emerge to illuminate how USDC flows are managed in real-world incidents?
As Circle contemplates these questions, the industry will continue to monitor the company’s responses to past incidents and any formal commitments it makes regarding future safeguards. The ongoing debate will likely influence how users evaluate stablecoins’ reliability, how developers design protection layers for on-chain protocols, and how regulators calibrate enforcement around centralized crypto rails.
Readers should stay tuned for any formal statements from Circle and for new data points from on-chain researchers and auditors that could recalibrate the assessment of how USDC and similar stablecoins behave during hacks, fraud, and other stress events.
Bitcoin spot ETFs may soon surpass gold ETFs in assets under management, fracturing the long-standing narrative that “digital gold” is a perfect stand-in for investors seeking a safe haven. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart shared the view in an interview linked to the Coin Stories podcast, arguing that Bitcoin’s multiple use cases — from store of value to growth asset and liquidity driver — create a broader appeal than gold, which the market typically frames in a single light.
“There are just more use cases of why somebody would put a Bitcoin ETF in a portfolio,” Seyffart said on the podcast. He emphasized Bitcoin’s roles as a store of value, a portfolio diversifier, a form of digital capital, and even a growth-risk asset, suggesting that the crypto may attract a wider spectrum of investors than gold over time. While gold has historically served as a hedge against monetary debasement, Bitcoin’s evolving narrative as both a digital asset and a potential macro hedge underpins the case for larger ETF demand in the years ahead.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin ETFs could grow to exceed gold ETFs in total assets under management as demand broadens beyond the traditional “digital gold” story, according to James Seyffart, a Bloomberg ETF analyst.
- March ETF flows show divergent momentum: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $1.32 billion in net inflows, while U.S. gold ETFs recorded net outflows of roughly $2.92 billion.
- A single-day move underscored fragility in precious metals: GLD, the flagship gold ETF, posted a $3 billion withdrawal on March 4, the largest daily outflow in more than two years.
- Longer-run macro signals remain mixed, with data suggesting a rotation dynamic between gold and Bitcoin rather than a single clear trend; Fidelity highlighted a historical pattern of leadership rotating between the two assets.
Flow dynamics in March: what they reveal about narrative shifts
The contrast in March ETF flows underscores shifting investor appetites for duration, liquidity, and narrative potential. Gold ETFs in the United States posted net outflows totaling about $2.92 billion in March, signaling renewed challenges for the traditional safe-haven metal in a period of evolving macro cues. In the same month, US spot Bitcoin ETFs drew approximately $1.32 billion in net inflows, illustrating a growing appetite for crypto exposure in diversified portfolios.
The divergence sits against a broader context in which Bitcoin and gold have moved more cohesively in recent weeks despite the divergent flows. The data points to a market that is re-evaluating the roles of these two hedges and growth assets in a landscape of persistent inflation concerns, evolving monetary policy expectations, and expanding acceptance of crypto-based investment products.
Gold’s pullback and retail versus institutional dynamics
Several pressures shaped gold’s March performance. The largest daily outflow in over two years hit GLD on March 4, reflecting sell-side and perhaps macro rotation pressures that have periodically punctured the gold regime. Meanwhile, more broad-based BIS data — cited by Cointelegraph — show retail gold purchases tripling over the past six months, while Wall Street selling has accelerated over the last four months. The juxtaposition implies a nuanced narrative: retail demand remains resilient even as institutional appetite shifts toward crypto exposure and related investment vehicles.
These dynamics sit alongside anecdotal expectations that a growing cadre of investors view Bitcoin as a “growth risk asset,” complementary to its role as a hedge-friendly reserve. The evolving taxonomy — Bitcoin as a stores of value, digital currency with intrinsic scarcity, and liquidity-rich growth asset — contributes to a broader array of reasons to own a Bitcoin ETF beyond simply “digital gold.”
Price action and broader market context
As of publication, Bitcoin traded around $66,918, down about 8% over the prior 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap data. Gold hovered near $4,676 per ounce, down about 8.25% over the same period, per GoldPrice metrics. The near-term move preserves the sense that both assets have faced headwinds in a mixed macro backdrop, yet the flow data suggests that investor interest in Bitcoin ETFs remains persistent and possibly expanding even as gold faces episodic outflows.
The longer-term rotation story received some color from Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Chris Kuiper. In December 2025, Kuiper noted that historically gold and Bitcoin have rotated leadership, with gold performing strongly at times and Bitcoin catching up in others. That framework remains relevant as market participants weigh regulatory clarity, ETF availability, and the evolving ecosystem around Bitcoin-based investment products.
Implications for investors and markets
The potential overtaking of gold ETFs by Bitcoin ETFs in AUM would mark a notable shift in how investors allocate capital in search of diversification, liquidity, and growth exposure. If Bitcoin ETFs continue to capture inflows beyond the “digital gold” narrative, the market could see a broader base of participants embracing crypto exposure through regulated vehicles. This would not only change the composition of ETF portfolios but could also influence liquidity, product development, and the pace at which financial institutions bring more crypto-enabled offerings to retail and high-net-worth investors alike.
From a portfolio-management perspective, the idea of Bitcoin acting as hot sauce in a diversified mix is persuasive for those seeking a growth-oriented, liquidity-rich sleeve within a broader asset allocation. Yet the data also underscores the need for caution and continued monitoring of regulatory developments, product approvals, and market structure changes that shape the appeal and risk profile of spot BTC ETFs.
In practical terms, readers should watch ETF inflow trends in the coming quarters, the rate of new product approvals, and the evolving evidence on how Bitcoin-based funds perform relative to gold during different macro regimes. The March data points demonstrate that the narrative around Bitcoin ETFs is gaining traction in investor discourse, even as gold maintains its own complex set of drivers and vulnerabilities.
Beyond price moves, the debate now centers on whether Bitcoin ETFs can sustain and broaden their appeal to a broader investor universe — from traditional equity and bond strategists to macro hedge funds and retail savers seeking diversified exposure. If inflows continue and more products arrive, the BTC ETF story may transition from a niche crypto offering to a core component of diversified portfolios.
What matters next is the trajectory of ETF approvals and listings, clear and consistent data on inflows across different regimes, and how macro factors like inflation momentum and monetary policy directions shape the risk-reward calculus for these funds. Investors should stay attentive to monthly flow prints, regulatory signals, and the evolving narrative around Bitcoin’s role in modern asset allocation.
As the market awaits further clarity, the ongoing dialogue around Bitcoin’s ETF potential points to a future where crypto exposure becomes an increasingly standard instrument within traditional investment frameworks. The next few quarters will be telling, as inflows, product breadth, and price action converge to reveal whether Bitcoin ETFs can definitively eclipse gold ETFs in practical assets under management.
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could surpass gold ETFs in total assets under management (AUM) as investor demand expands beyond the traditional “digital gold” narrative, according to ETF analyst James Seyffart.
“There are just more use cases of why somebody would put a Bitcoin ETF in a portfolio,” Seyffart said on the Coin Stories podcast published to YouTube on Friday. He pointed to Bitcoin’s (BTC) role as digital gold, a store of value, a portfolio diversifier, and a form of digital capital and property, adding that the market also views Bitcoin as a “growth risk asset.”
Seyffart explained that Bitcoin has “all these different ways” of being viewed, while gold only has “one of those things.”
“Our view is that Bitcoin ETFs will be larger than gold ETFs,” he added.
Bitcoin ETFs are a “hot sauce” in the portfolio
“There are so many people that could use it. They could be viewing it to put in their portfolio because they want to bet on like a growth and liquidity trade,” he said. “It can be hot sauce in a portfolio in that way,” he added.
Bitcoin is often compared to gold due to its limited supply and perceived role as a hedge against monetary debasement.
US-based gold ETFs recorded net outflows of $2.92 billion in March, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.32 billion in net inflows over the same period.
Gold and BTC have declined over the past 30 days
The largest US gold-backed ETF, GLD, recorded a $3 billion outflow on Mar. 4, the largest daily withdrawal in more than two years.
On Mar. 19, Cointelegraph cited data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) showing retail gold purchases have tripled over the last six months, while Wall Street selling has accelerated over the past four months.
Related: Bitcoin ‘done’ with 85% crashes, says Cathie Wood amid new $34K target
Despite the divergence in ETF flows, both assets have moved broadly in tandem in recent weeks.
Bitcoin is trading at $66,918 at the time of publication, down 8.07% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap. Meanwhile, gold is trading at $4,676, down 8.25% over the past 30 days, according to GoldPrice data.
In December 2025, Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Chris Kuiper said that, “historically, gold and Bitcoin have taken turns outperforming. With gold shining in 2025, it would not be surprising if Bitcoin takes the lead next.”
Magazine: Solana exec trolls crypto gamers, Pixel tackles play-to-earn issues: Web3 Gamer
TLDR:
- The tokenized US Treasury market hit $12B, far below the $6T traditional money market fund sector.
- Regulatory obligations follow the entities managing assets, not the tokens representing them onchain.
- Embedded compliance built into RWA protocols removes costly intermediary layers found in traditional markets.
- Major jurisdictions including the EU, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Japan are actively building RWA frameworks.
RWA regulation is no longer a side conversation in crypto — it has become the central pillar of tokenized asset infrastructure. As real-world assets move onchain, they carry existing legal obligations with them.
The technology to tokenize bonds, private credit, and equities already works well. However, the legal and compliance layer determines whether those assets carry real, enforceable value for investors.
Without regulatory infrastructure, a tokenized bond is simply a token referencing a bond — nothing more.
The Trust Gap Holding Back Institutional Capital in RWA
The tokenized US Treasury market reached roughly $12 billion as of March 2026. By contrast, the traditional US money market fund industry manages over $6 trillion.
That gap is not a technology problem. The blockchain settles transactions faster, and onchain access is broader than in legacy markets.
The barrier is trust, not capability. A pension fund evaluating a tokenized product needs far more than a working smart contract.
Its compliance team, legal counsel, and board must each confirm that the obligations governing the underlying asset are fully met. That confirmation cannot be approximated — it must be complete.
That standard reflects fiduciary responsibility. These allocators manage other people’s money and carry strict legal accountability for each product they hold.
Every tokenized instrument must meet the same legal standards as traditional market instruments alongside it. That is not a preference — it is a legal requirement.
Plume Network addressed this issue through its RWA Academy series. The team noted that regulatory clarity is “the precondition for institutional capital” in the RWA space.
Regulatory obligations do not sit with the asset itself — they sit with the entities that issue, transfer, and facilitate trading in it. RWA infrastructure must allow those entities to discharge their responsibilities clearly.
Embedded Compliance Is Transforming How RWA Infrastructure Is Built
One key shift in RWA is the transition from bolt-on compliance to embedded compliance. In traditional markets, intermediaries handle compliance at every step of a transaction. Each additional layer adds cost, introduces delay, and reduces transparency for all parties.
Onchain systems can instead build compliance directly into the protocol itself. Transaction screening, transfer restrictions, and KYC/AML verification can all operate within the system. That design eliminates the need for separate compliance layers added after the fact.
The result is a network where compliance is an intrinsic property rather than an add-on feature. That distinction matters enormously for regulated institutions evaluating RWA markets. Institutional adoption of RWA depends on this structural credibility, not just smart contract functionality.
Regulators across major jurisdictions are aligning around the same direction. Europe’s MiCA framework took effect in 2024 and covers all 27 member states.
Hong Kong’s Project Ensemble and Singapore’s Project Guardian are both testing tokenized financial markets with regulatory involvement.
South Korea and Japan are each updating their digital asset laws to accommodate onchain flows. Cross-border fragmentation remains a challenge, but shared principles across frameworks are becoming clearer each month.
Google’s Quantum AI team said earlier this week that a future quantum computer could derive a bitcoin private key from a public key in roughly nine minutes. The number ricocheted across social media and spooked markets.
But, what does it actually mean in practice?
Let’s start with how bitcoin transactions work. When you send bitcoin, your wallet signs the transaction with a private key, a secret number that proves you own the coins.
That signature also reveals your public key, a shareable address, which gets broadcast to the network and sits in a waiting area called the mempool until a miner includes it in a block. On average, that confirmation takes about 10 minutes.
Your private key and public key are linked by a math problem called the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem. Classical computers can’t reverse that math in any useful timeframe, while a sufficiently powerful future quantum computer running an algorithm called Shor’s could.
Here’s where the nine minutes part comes in. Google’s paper found that a quantum computer could be “primed” in advance by pre-computing the parts of the attack that don’t depend on any specific public key.
Once your public key appears in the mempool, the machine only needs about nine minutes to finish the job and derive your private key. Bitcoin’s average confirmation time is 10 minutes. That gives the attacker a roughly 41% chance of deriving your key and redirecting your funds before the original transaction confirms.
Think of it like a thief spending hours building a universal safe-cracking machine (pre-computation). The machine works for any safe, but each time a new safe appears, it only needs a few final adjustments — and that last step is what takes about nine minutes.
That’s the mempool attack. It’s alarming but requires a quantum computer that doesn’t exist yet. Google’s paper estimates such a machine would need fewer than 500,000 physical qubits. Today’s largest quantum processors have around 1,000.
The bigger and more immediate concern is the 6.9 million bitcoin, roughly one-third of total supply, that already sit in wallets where the public key has been permanently exposed.
This includes early bitcoin addresses from the network’s first years that used a format called pay-to-public-key, where the public key is visible on the blockchain by default. It also includes any wallet that has reused an address, since spending from an address reveals the public key for all remaining funds.
These coins don’t need the nine-minute race. An attacker with a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could crack them at leisure, working through exposed keys one by one without any time pressure.
Bitcoin’s 2021 Taproot upgrade made this worse, as CoinDesk reported earlier Tuesday. Taproot changed how addresses work so that public keys are visible on-chain by default, inadvertently expanding the pool of wallets that would be vulnerable to a future quantum attack.
The bitcoin network itself would keep running. Mining uses a different algorithm called SHA-256 that quantum computers can’t meaningfully speed up with current approaches. Blocks would still be produced.
The ledger would still exist. But if private keys can be derived from public keys, the ownership guarantees that make bitcoin valuable break down. Anyone with exposed keys is at risk of theft, and institutional trust in the network’s security model collapses.
The fix is post-quantum cryptography, which replaces the vulnerable math with algorithms that quantum computers can’t crack. Ethereum has spent eight years building toward that migration. Bitcoin hasn’t even started.
Coinbase’s bid to build a federally supervised custody and market infrastructure business took a significant step forward when the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) granted conditional approval for a national trust bank charter after a six-month review. The decision, however, drew swift pushback from banking groups and reform advocates who argue that the application reveals gaps in risk management, profitability planning, and resolution strategies and that expanding trust powers for crypto activities may exceed the OCC’s statutory remit.
The Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA) argued that the OCC’s move reflects a broader trend: nonbank entities seeking the benefits of a bank charter without meeting the full regulatory framework that governs traditional lenders. In a statement accompanying its critique, the ICBA warned that the approval could create new safety and soundness risks for consumers and the broader financial system.
The sudden influx of applications demonstrates nonbank entities are seeking the benefits of a US bank charter without satisfying the full scope of US bank regulations.
Coinbase’s bid to broaden its custody and market infrastructure footprint enters a federal regulatory arena that remains unsettled for many crypto activities.
Key takeaways
- OCC grants conditional approval for Coinbase to pursue a national trust bank charter after a six-month review, signaling a potential federal framework for crypto custody and related services.
- Industry and reform groups counter that the application highlights regulatory gaps and could shift risk toward consumers and the financial system if not fully aligned with traditional banking standards.
- Separately, a broad debate over stablecoins and yield-bearing products intensifies scrutiny of how crypto yields fit within or outside existing banking rules, including concerns about potential asset leakage from banks.
- Policy discussions in Washington continue around the US Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, with progress claimed by some lawmakers but key sticking points, such as yield, delaying formal committee action.
Regulatory pushback surrounds Coinbase bank-charter approval
Stablecoins and yield debate intensifies regulatory scrutiny
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan estimated that up to trillions of dollars could migrate away from conventional banks if such yields were broadly permitted, potentially constraining banks’ ability to lend and raising borrowing costs for households and businesses.
Policy momentum, investor implications, and what comes next
What to watch next: a clearer alignment on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act’s key provisions, updates on whether yield-bearing products will be reconciled within traditional banking restrictions, and any further OCC or federal guidance that could define the contours of crypto custody and market infrastructure under a national bank charter.
Crypto World
Chainlink’s $42M LINK Transfer to Binance Sparks Caution as Whale Wallets Hit a One-Year High
TLDR:
- Around 4.9 million LINK tokens worth roughly $42M were transferred to Binance during a low-volume weekend session.
- A single wallet address was responsible for moving 2.5 million LINK directly to Binance in one concentrated transfer.
- Chainlink whale wallets holding 1M or more LINK grew from 100 to 125 between April 2025 and April 2026.
- Analysts remain cautious as large exchange inflows can signal selling pressure, especially during low-liquidity trading periods.
Chainlink has attracted renewed attention following a large on-chain transfer over the weekend. Around $42 million worth of LINK tokens moved to Binance during a period of typically low trading activity.
The movement came alongside fresh data showing a rise in whale wallet accumulation over the past year. Both developments have placed the asset under closer watch from market participants tracking its near-term direction.
The timing has added to growing interest surrounding Chainlink’s current on-chain behavior.
Large LINK Transfers Raise Questions About Exchange Inflows
On-chain analyst Darkfost flagged the transfer on social media this weekend. According to the post, roughly 4.9 million LINK tokens were sent to Binance.
Within that total, 2.5 million LINK came from a single wallet address. The concentration of funds from one source drew added attention to the movement.
The transfers occurred during a weekend, when trading volumes tend to stay lower than usual. Low-liquidity windows can strengthen the price effect of large exchange inflows.
Some participants move large sums during these periods to avoid immediate market disruption. Others may use the timing to position ahead of the regular trading week.
Darkfost outlined two possible explanations for the movement. One is that the Chainlink team relocated funds for custody or under a Binance arrangement.
The other is that a whale or large entity chose Binance for access to its deep order book. The actual reason behind the transfer has not been confirmed.
Large exchange inflows call for a measure of caution from market observers. Funds sent to a trading platform can, under the right conditions, translate into sell-side activity.
Chainlink’s order book is now being watched for any follow-through from these transfers. No major sell event had been reported at the time of publication.
Whale Accumulation in Chainlink Points to Long-Term Confidence
Santiment published data on April 3 showing a notable shift in Chainlink’s whale count. The number of wallets holding one million or more LINK tokens grew from 100 to 125.
That change occurred between April 2025 and April 2026, a period marked by a broader crypto bear market. The data points to quiet accumulation by large holders throughout that time.
Accumulation of this scale often goes unnoticed when price action is flat. On-chain whale metrics, however, offer a longer view of how an asset is being positioned.
Chainlink’s rising whale count reflects steady demand from the top tier of holders. That trend continued even as market conditions remained difficult.
The contrast between exchange inflows and long-term wallet growth presents a layered picture. Near-term transfers to Binance suggest possible selling pressure, while whale accumulation signals continued holding behavior.
These two trends carry different weight depending on one’s investment horizon. Both are expected to remain in focus in the weeks ahead.
Chainlink’s price was recorded at $8.69 at the time of the on-chain activity. Analysts and traders continue to monitor both flows and wallet data for further developments.
Crypto World
Tokenized Real-World Assets Hit $27.65B as Ondo Finance Dominates Equities With 60% Market Share
TLDR:
- The tokenized RWA market reached $27.65B in April 2026, growing 4.07% while most crypto sectors contracted.
- U.S. Treasury debt leads the RWA market at $12.78B, nearly half the total, followed by commodities at $5.4B.
- Tokenized equities hit $941M with a $2.94B monthly transfer volume, marking an 85.78% jump in 30 days.
- Ondo Finance controls 60.07% of the tokenized equity market at $557M, spanning 230 products across 8 asset classes.
Tokenized real-world assets have reached $27.65 billion in total distributed value as of April 2026. The sector grew 4.07% over the past 30 days, standing apart from most crypto verticals.
Capital inflows into RWA remain structurally positive while other segments contract. U.S. Treasuries lead at $12.78 billion, followed by commodities at $5.4 billion and asset-backed credit at $3.19 billion. Tokenized equities are now approaching the $1 billion threshold.
RWA Market Holds Steady as Capital Flows Into Tokenized Instruments
The tokenized RWA market is drawing consistent institutional interest in blockchain-based financial instruments. Investors are moving capital into on-chain versions of Treasuries, commodities, and credit products.
These assets offer dollar-denominated yield without traditional brokerage accounts or wire transfer requirements. Global access without timezone or geographic barriers is a key draw for institutional allocators.
U.S. Treasury debt at $12.78 billion accounts for nearly half the total market value. Commodities follow at $5.4 billion, while asset-backed credit holds $3.19 billion.
Together, these three categories make up the bulk of the $27.65 billion total. The composition reflects a market led by yield-generating and capital-preservation instruments.
The 4.07% monthly growth rate is notable given the current crypto environment. Most sectors are recording outflows, yet RWA continues to attract fresh capital.
That contrast points to a structural shift in how institutional money views on-chain assets. Investors appear to be treating tokenized instruments as a long-term allocation category.
The broader data from rwa.xyz reinforces this trend with consistent upward movement. Monthly figures have held positive across multiple reporting periods.
The market is not being driven by short-term speculation, but by allocation patterns familiar in traditional finance. That behavioral shift separates RWA from most other crypto verticals.
Ondo Finance and xStocks Lead a Concentrated Tokenized Equity Sector
Tokenized equities now sit at $941 million, closing in on the $1 billion mark. Monthly transfer volume reached $2.94 billion, a jump of 85.78% over 30 days.
That creates a 3:1 ratio between transfer volume and total asset value. The ratio points to active trading rather than passive holding behavior among participants.
According to data shared on X, OndoFinance holds 60.07% of the tokenized equity market at $557 million. The platform operates across 230 products and grew 8.28% over the past month.
@xStocksFi holds 26.24% at $243.3 million, making it the second-largest platform. Together, the two platforms control 86% of the entire tokenized equity market.
Securitize, the next closest competitor, holds only $60 million across a single product. That platform declined 38.32% over the same 30-day period.
Every other platform in the space holds under $25 million. The drop-off from the two leaders to the rest of the market is sharp.
Ondo’s growth reflects a portfolio that has evolved well beyond its original design. The platform started with OUSG and USDY as Treasury yield products. It now covers eight asset classes, with U.S. Treasury debt at $2.4 billion making up 76.9% of its total value.
The equity vertical at $557 million has become its second-largest and fastest-growing segment, with top products including S&P 500 ETFs and NVIDIA shares.
Crypto World
Best Crypto to Buy Now as the Search Leads to Pepeto With $8M Raised and 100x Before Binance Listing
The search led right here. The best crypto to buy now is not SOL at $80.49 grinding toward 36% or ADA at $0.24 waiting for a hard fork. It is a presale at millionths of a cent that raised more than $8 million during extreme fear because wallets found it before the crowd had reason to look.
This entry has a higher ceiling because a working exchange stands behind the token, and analysts project 100x before the confirmed Binance listing opens. The search for the best crypto to buy now was leading to Pepeto all along, and the wallets inside acted on that signal first.
Kentucky House Bill 380 mandated hardware wallet backdoors, forcing manufacturers to assist with seed phrase resets per CoinDesk. The provision destroys the foundation of self custody.
CoinGecko showed the market dropping as fears spread across positions. The best crypto to buy now benefits from this shift because capital seeking safety flows toward audited presales with verified contracts, confirmed listings, and tools that protect every wallet before any transaction clears.
Custody Shift and the Presale the Keyword Search Was Leading To
Pepeto: Risk Scorer and Bridge Live With 100x Before Listing
Protecting capital from threats requires action, not another search. Pepeto, considered the best crypto to buy now, delivers contract checking through the risk scorer, keeping wallets safe from malicious tokens before any position opens, the kind of protection that makes a presale entry worth committing to before listing. This is why searching for another update is the wrong approach when the presale fills and the listing draws closer.
The math proves the conviction. More than $8 million entered at $0.000000186 during extreme fear, and analysts project 100x before the Binance listing. That means presale capital converts into returns that SOL at 36% and ADA at 2x cannot come close to matching from current levels.
This setup is why wallets leave large cap targets for the Pepeto entry. The cross chain bridge moves assets at zero cost keeping capital whole, and PepetoSwap processes zero fee trades. The platform condenses research into seconds through a clean interface where every tool runs and the layout makes finding what matters simple.
The cofounder who created the original Pepe coin turned zero products into $11 billion, SolidProof audited every contract, and a former Binance expert drives the listing. Staking at 189% APY compounds returns while listing approaches, and every round filling means fewer entries remain for the wallets that have not moved yet.
Solana (SOL): $80.49 Recovering From $285M Drift Protocol Exploit
SOL sits at $80.49, down 2.77% on the week after the $285 million Drift exploit per CoinMarketCap. Support at $75, resistance at $88.
Even $120 delivers 52%, modest next to the presale entry where 100x projections carry a working exchange.
Cardano (ADA): $0.24 Awaits Protocol 11 Governance Overhaul
ADA trades at $0.24 per CoinGecko. Protocol 11 adds on chain governance with the Midnight sidechain.
Even $0.50 delivers 2x from $0.24, a ceiling presale math multiplies past before listing day arrives.
Conclusion: Why the Best Crypto to Buy Now Already Answered the Search
The presale fills right now, making this the best time to enter before the price moves. Another search will not change the outcome for wallets still outside. Early wallets acted before the crowd had reason to look, and the best crypto to buy now has a higher ceiling because a working exchange stands behind the token instead of a whitepaper.
The Pepeto official website shows capital arriving while SOL and ADA debate their next percentage, and entering now means joining the wallets that found the answer before the listing confirms what the capital already proved.
Find the answer at Pepeto before the listing closes the entry the search was leading to.
FAQs
What is the best crypto to buy now in April 2026?
Pepeto leads the best crypto to buy now with a working exchange, risk scorer, and 100x projections before a confirmed Binance listing.
How does the Kentucky bill affect the best crypto to buy now?
The bill threatens custody, making audited presales with verified contracts the safer choice through the Pepeto official website where tools protect positions.
How does the best crypto to buy now compare to SOL and ADA?
SOL and ADA cap returns modestly, while Pepeto offers 100x with working tools, making it the answer the search was leading to.
Disclaimer: This is a Press Release provided by a third party who is responsible for the content. Please conduct your own research before taking any action based on the content.
XRP is compressing into the apex of a descending wedge at $1.3157 after months of lower highs and lower lows, with the 4H MACD signal line just crossing into positive territory for the first time since February — a sign that bearish momentum may be approaching exhaustion ahead of what could be the pattern’s most consequential candle close.
Summary
- XRP is trading at $1.3157, pressing against the apex of a descending wedge pattern visible on both the daily and 4H charts, with the daily Supertrend bearish at $1.4894.
- The daily MACD histogram stands at -0.0222, while on the 4H chart the signal line has just crossed marginally into positive territory, signalling that bearish momentum is approaching exhaustion ahead of the wedge resolution.
- A confirmed daily close above $1.47 targets $1.50 and a potential challenge of $1.60, while a break below $1.27 risks an acceleration toward $1.14.
XRP (XRP) is trading at $1.3157 on April 3, 2026, down 0.33% on the day and compressing near the apex of a descending wedge pattern that has formed across both the daily and 4H timeframes since February. The Supertrend indicator on the daily chart sits at $1.4894, in red above price, confirming the prevailing bearish regime. Yet the formation itself is a structure that technical analysts typically associate with bullish reversal potential when it emerges at the end of a prolonged downtrend, provided the lower trendline holds.
On the daily chart, two converging trendlines are clearly visible: a descending upper resistance line and a slightly rising lower support line. Price at $1.3157 is nearing the apex, with the most recent daily low printed at $1.3033. The daily MACD shows a histogram of -0.0222, with the MACD line at -0.0287 below the signal at -0.0065. The reading remains bearish, but the histogram has been contracting, a sign that selling pressure is gradually fading.
On the 4H chart, the same wedge structure is intact. The upper descending trendline aligns with the 4H Supertrend at $1.3586, and the lower rising trendline has provided support on each test since early February. Critically, the 4H signal line has crossed marginally into positive territory at 0.0002, while the MACD line at -0.0069 is approaching zero from below. A full bullish MACD crossover has not yet occurred, but the convergence at near-zero is an early signal of bearish exhaustion.
Key Levels, Price Targets, and Invalidation
Bull case: a daily close above the descending wedge resistance near $1.47 would confirm the breakout, initially targeting $1.4894, the Supertrend level, then $1.50. Above that, $1.60 is the key structural zone where the broader descending channel from July 2025 would be meaningfully challenged. Technical analyst Ali Martinez noted on X (formerly Twitter) that XRP “could offer a short-term buying opportunity” within its multi-year ascending triangle structure at current levels, though he also identified a potential further decline of approximately 30% before a sustained long-term recovery becomes likely.
Bear case: a daily close below $1.27 would break the wedge support and expose XRP to $1.14, the conservative channel breakdown target. A dense supply cluster of approximately 19.6 million XRP is concentrated between $1.27 and $1.28, per Coinglass cost-basis data, making this the most critical demand zone to defend.
Invalidation of the bull case: a daily close below $1.27. Invalidation of the bear case: a daily close above $1.47.
On-Chain and Derivatives Context
U.S. spot XRP ETF monthly inflows turned negative in March 2026 for the first time since the products launched in November 2025, according to SoSoValue data, removing a structural buy-side catalyst that had underpinned price through Q1. XRP open interest across all exchanges now sits near $2.45 billion, down approximately 73% from the September 2025 peak, as detailed in prior crypto.news coverage.
Funding rates have shifted to a positive 0.008%, suggesting fresh long positions are entering near current levels. However, the six-to-twelve month holder cohort has begun trimming positions since March 27, reducing a layer of structural support precisely as the wedge reaches its apex.
As crypto.news has covered, recovery attempts have repeatedly stalled below descending resistance, and the pattern remains intact until buyers produce a decisive daily close above the wedge’s upper trendline. With the 4H signal line at zero and the apex approaching, the next directional candle carries outsized weight.
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