Crypto World
Bitcoin Adoption Booms While Bear Market Deepens: Watch These Signals
Since dropping by 35% from Jan. 14 to Feb. 5, Bitcoin (BTC) has consolidated in a range from $60,000 to $70,000 over the past 22 days. At the same time, several BTC adoption-linked metrics are moving in different directions across exchange-traded funds (ETFs), whales, miners and corporate Bitcoin treasuries.
These divergences highlight steady capital commitment beneath muted price action and how each signal fits into the bigger picture.
Bitcoin ETF flows remain negative
The 90-day rolling average of US spot Bitcoin ETF net flows has dropped to -$2.18 billion. Over the past two years, the metric has turned negative only twice: from March to May 2025, and in the current stretch that began on December 11, 2025. In both instances, Bitcoin followed with a corrective phase.
When the rolling average turns negative, it means more money is leaving ETFs than coming in over a longer period. That reduces buying pressure, weakens overall demand, and can make it harder for prices to move higher.
A move back above zero, followed by steady inflows, may mark the return of institutional participation. Sustained positive readings tend to align with stronger price action from BTC, alongside improving liquidity conditions.
BTC whale accumulation versus dominant trend
CryptoQuant data tracks the one-year change in total whale holdings and its 365-day moving average. Addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC added more than 200,000 BTC from June to November 2023, while the price ranged from $25,000 to $30,000.
When the raw one-year change crosses above its 365-day average, whales are accumulating faster than their longer-term trend. That crossover in 2023 coincided with supply absorption during sideways trade, which eventually led to BTC’s bullish rally.
Thus, a bullish trend may unfold for BTC once the one-year change sustainably moves above its moving average (365-SMA), signaling renewed large-scale absorption.
Hash rate and infrastructure signal
Bitcoin’s 30-day mean hash rate stands near 0.99 ZH/s after peaking at 1.10 ZH/s in November 2025. Both hash rate and price have moved lower in recent weeks.
Hash rate measures the computational power securing the network and reflects miner investment in hardware and energy capacity. Rising hash rate during price consolidation points to infrastructure expansion independent of short-term price gains.
If the hash rate trends higher while the price trades sideways, it points to a stronger long-term commitment from miners. A sustained divergence, where hash rate rises ahead of price, can signal growing confidence within the mining sector.
Likewise, miner economics must also improve. Stabilizing the hash price and lower miner sell pressure confirms that rising computational power is backed by healthier revenue conditions rather than tightening margins.
Related: Analysts reject Jane Street ‘10 a.m. dump’ claims, say Bitcoin isn’t easily manipulated
Corporate BTC treasury concentration cools
A recent report from bitcointreasuries.net noted that treasuries added about 43,200 BTC in January, with Strategy accounting for about 40,150 BTC.
Zooming out, the chart shows that corporate accumulation by Strategy has slowed significantly since late 2024. Monthly additions peaked near 148,000 BTC in November 2024 and 87,000 BTC in July 2025.
Recent monthly figures are materially lower, and the last 30-day increase represents only a marginal change relative to the 1.13 million BTC now held by public companies.
The latest monthly net increase equates to roughly 0.1% growth relative to total public company holdings. That pace signals stability rather than acceleration in treasury expansion.
For BTC price, broader and accelerating treasury inflows help absorb available supply more effectively. Slower increases, by contrast, signal companies are largely maintaining positions rather than driving new demand.
Related: Bitcoin bear market not ‘over already’ as price rejects at $68K trend line
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Vitalik Buterin has outlined a four-pronged plan to harden Ethereum against quantum threats, identifying four areas most vulnerable: validator signatures, data storage, user account signatures, and zero-knowledge proofs. As headlines spotlight quantum risk across crypto, including discussions around Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and other chains, the Ethereum co-founder argues that a careful, long-horizon upgrade path is essential. In a Thursday post, he described a roadmap that hinges on selecting a post-quantum hash function for all signatures—an issue that could determine the network’s security stance for years. The discussion echoes prior proposals, including Justin Drake’s Lean Ethereum idea proposed in August 2025.
Key takeaways
- Buterin identifies four pillars for quantum resistance: validator signatures, data storage, user account signatures, and zero-knowledge proofs, framing a holistic upgrade rather than piecemeal fixes.
- The plan contemplates replacing the current BLS signatures with lean, quantum-safe hash-based signatures, with the choice of hash function carrying long-term implications for the network.
- Data storage would transition from KZG to STARKs, a move that aims to preserve verifiability while enhancing quantum resistance, albeit with significant engineering work ahead.
- User accounts would shift from ECDSA toward signatures compatible with lattice-based, quantum-resilient schemes, though heavier gas costs are a concern.
- A long-term solution centers on protocol-layer recursive signatures and proof aggregation to keep on-chain verification costs in check, potentially enabling vast scalability for quantum-resistant proofs.
- The conversation nods to ongoing research, including ETHresearch discussions on recursive-STARK approaches and the broader Strawmap effort to accelerate finality and throughput.
Sentiment: Neutral
Market context: The push toward quantum-resistant primitives sits against a backdrop of ongoing network upgrades and a broader move toward scalable zero-knowledge proofs, with developers weighing security, efficiency, and long-term viability as they plan multi-year transitions.
Why it matters
The four-pronged approach to quantum resistance is more than a theoretical exercise; it signals how Ethereum intends to preserve user trust as quantum threats loom on the horizon. If effective, a hash-based signature layer could become the de facto standard for post-quantum security, shaping how users interact with wallets, smart contracts, and validator participation for years to come. The decision on the hash function is particularly consequential: once a standard is chosen, it tends to anchor the protocol for a generation, influencing tooling, hardware requirements, and compatibility with future cryptographic advances.
On data storage, the plan to replace KZG with STARKs reflects a subtle shift in cryptographic assumptions. STARKs are lauded for being quantum-resistant and transparent, but integrating them into Ethereum’s data availability and verification stack would demand substantial engineering effort, optimization, and rigorous security audits. Buterin has framed it as “manageable, but there’s a lot of engineering work to do.” The move would balance the need for robust post-quantum guarantees with the practical realities of a live, globally used network.
Account signatures represent another frontier. Ethereum currently relies on ECDSA, a staple of today’s cryptographic ecosystem. Moving to a system that can accommodate lattice-based or other quantum-safe schemes may impose heavier computational loads and gas costs in the near term. Yet the long‑term payoff could be a network that remains secure even as quantum computing capabilities grow. Buterin points to a longer-term fix—protocol-layer recursive signature and proof aggregation—that could dramatically reduce gas overheads by verifying many signatures and proofs within a single frame. If realized, that approach could unlock scalable, quantum-resistant transactions without sacrificing usability.
A central theme across the discussion is the balance between immediate practicality and enduring security. Quantum-safe signatures are not a cosmetic upgrade; they alter core data paths, from how validators validate blocks to how users sign transactions and how proofs are verified. The blockchain community increasingly recognizes that a “one-size-fits-all” cryptographic choice may not suffice; instead, a layered strategy—where traditional primitives coexist with post-quantum alternatives and where recursive techniques optimize verification—could define Ethereum’s security posture for years to come.
Beyond the cryptographic specifics, the conversation is anchored in ongoing academic and developer experiments. For example, researchers have explored recursive-STARK concepts to compress bandwidth and computation, including discussions on a bandwidth-efficient mempool that leverages recursive proofs. This line of inquiry mirrors Ethereum’s broader push toward scalable, verifiable computation that remains tenable in a post-quantum world. The discussion also nods to real-world upgrade planning, such as Lean Ethereum, which Justin Drake proposed in August 2025 as a pragmatic framework for accelerating quantum readiness without destabilizing current operations.
In parallel, governance and roadmap conversations continue to unfold within the Ethereum Foundation and the wider developer community. Buterin’s own posts have highlighted expectations that progress on “Strawmap” could yield progressive decreases in both slot time and finality time, signaling a more agile path to security without sacrificing decentralization or user experience. The architecture changes under consideration—ranging from signature schemes to data verification protocols—must harmonize with these operational expectations to minimize disruption while maximizing resilience against quantum-era threats.
What to watch next
- Updates on Lean Ethereum: Any formal milestones or testnet deployments that demonstrate practical quantum-ready components in action.
- Hash-function selection for post-quantum signatures: The criteria, security proofs, and network-wide implications of choosing a long-term standard.
- Progress toward STARK-based data storage: Engineering roadmaps, performance benchmarks, and on-chain verification strategies.
- Adoption of lattice-based or alternative signatures for user accounts: Changes to wallets, client libraries, and tooling compatibility.
- Implementation of recursive signatures and proof aggregation: Realistic timelines, gas impact assessments, and potential protocol changes needed to support such a paradigm.
Sources & verification
- Vitalik Buterin’s quantum-resistance roadmap post and related discussions: https://x.com/VitalikButerin/status/2027075026378543132
- Lean Ethereum proposal by Justin Drake: https://cointelegraph.com/news/justin-drake-proposes-lean-ethereum
- Headlines about quantum threats to Bitcoin: https://cointelegraph.com/news/saylor-says-quantum-threat-to-bitcoin-is-more-than-10-years-out-expects-coordinated-global-upgrade-if-risk-emerges
- Quantum-resistant data storage and STARKs vs KZG discussion: https://cointelegraph.com/news/vitalik-details-roadmap-for-faster-quantum-resistant-ethereum
- Ethereum Foundation quantum gas‑limit priorities and protocol considerations: https://cointelegraph.com/news/ethereum-foundation-quantum-gas-limit-priorities-protocol
- Strawmap and related timing expectations: https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/bitcoin-7-years-upgrade-post-quantum-bip-360-co-author/
- Recursive-STARK mempool concept: https://ethresear.ch/t/recursive-stark-based-bandwidth-efficient-mempool/23838
Ethereum’s quantum resilience roadmap: four frontiers and the road ahead
Ethereum’s path to quantum resistance, as articulated by Buterin, centers on four pivotal domains: validator signatures, data storage, user account signatures, and zero-knowledge proofs. The proposal calls for replacing the current Boneh-Lynn-Shacham (BLS) consensus signatures with a lean, hash-based, post-quantum alternative. The selection of the hash function is underscored as a long-term decision, potentially locking in an approach for years to come. This shift aims to preserve the integrity of validator operations while mitigating the risk that quantum computers could break current signatures used to attest to blocks and transactions.
In parallel, the data layer would transition away from KZG-based storage to STARKs, a move designed to maintain verifiability under quantum pressure. Buterin notes this is a technically manageable transition, yet it requires substantial engineering effort to integrate seamlessly with Ethereum’s existing data availability and verification mechanisms. If realized, the change would address a core vulnerability by ensuring that data proofs remain verifiable even in a quantum era, without compromising network performance.
On user accounts, the plan envisions a broader compatibility with signature schemes beyond ECDSA, including lattice-based approaches that resist quantum attacks. The practical challenge here is gas consumption: quantum-safe signatures tend to be heavier to compute, which could elevate gas costs in the near term. The longer-term payoff, though, would be a network able to function securely even when advanced quantum hardware becomes capable of breaking traditional cryptographic keys. To counterbalance the added computational load, Buterin points to a protocol-layer solution—recursive signature and proof aggregation—that could dramatically reduce on-chain gas overhead by consolidating verification work into master frames that validate thousands of signatures or proofs at once.
Quantum-resistant proofs pose another cost hurdle, motivating the same aggregation strategy. Instead of individually verifying every signature and proof on-chain, a single, compiled structure—an overarching validation frame—would authorize thousands of sub-validations in a single operation. This approach could reduce the per-transactions verification burden to near-zero costs in practice, enabling a scalable model for post-quantum proof workloads. The narrative echoes ongoing research, including discussions around a recursive-STARK-based bandwidth-efficient mempool, which envisions more efficient data flow and validation under heavy workloads.
Finally, the Strawmap discussions hint at a broader tempo for the network upgrade. Buterin and researchers anticipate incremental improvements in slot times and finality, signaling a measured cadence for upgrading cryptographic primitives without triggering disruptive forks. The convergence of these threads—signature upgrades, data storage shifts, and aggregation-based efficiency—paints a future where Ethereum (ETH) remains secure and usable as quantum capabilities advance. The dialogue around these topics reflects a mature, evidence-based approach to governance and engineering, balancing theoretical security with the practicalities of a live, billions-of-dollars ecosystem.
Happy Thursday, advisors!
In today’s newsletter, David Lawant, head of research at Anchorage Digital reviews crypto’s evolving role in 401(k)s, as regulatory clarity is poised to open up investments.
Then, in Ask an Expert, Kevin Tam answers questions about crypto adoption around the world looking at the recent 13F filings.
Happy Reading.
Modernizing the nest egg: the past, present, and future of crypto in 401(k) plans
The United States retirement system is about to reach a structural inflection point. For over a decade, the $10 trillion 401(k) market remained insulated from crypto assets due to regulatory ambiguity and litigation concerns. However, a decisive shift in federal policy is transforming 2026 into the year of integration, which in the long term will move crypto from the periphery into the institutional core of the American retirement system.
The regulatory shift from “extreme care,” to “principled neutrality,” to “democratizing access.”
The Department of Labor (DOL) is responsible for making sure that ERISA, the 1974 federal law that sets minimum standards for most voluntarily established retirement and health plans in private industry, is at the epicenter of this issue. In March 2022, it issued Compliance Assistance Release No. 2022-01. This release created a de facto ban on crypto assets in retirement plans by mandating that fiduciaries exercise “extreme care” and threatening targeted investigations for those engaging with crypto assets.
On May 28, 2025, the DOL formally abandoned the “extreme care” standard with the Compliance Assistance Release No. 2025-01. This release formally rescinded the restrictive 2022 guidance, stating that the previous stance had “deviated from the requirements of ERISA” and the department’s “historically neutral, principled-based approach”. The rescission re-established the legal standard set by the Supreme Court which holds that fiduciaries must act prudently based on a contextual evaluation of risk and return, rather than adhering to categorical bans on specific asset classes.
But the real catalyst came with President Donald Trump’s Executive Order 14330, signed on August 7, 2025. Titled “Democratizing Access to Alternative Assets for 401(k) Investors,” this directive fundamentally redefined the government’s stance, shifting from a cautionary tone to an affirmative mandate for facilitating access to “alternative assets,” which the order explicitly defined to include crypto assets among more established classes such as private equity and real estate.
Upcoming DOL guidance on alternative assets and what adoption could look like
This past January, the DOL submitted a proposed rule that would clarify its position on alternative assets and the appropriate fiduciary process. The document is not public yet and is still sitting with the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), but given that the 180-day White House deadline has already expired, there is expectation that it could be released for public comment quite soon.
For crypto specifically, attention hinges on the design of the upcoming fiduciary safe harbor. This regulatory ‘’checklist’ is intended to immunize fiduciaries from liability for investment losses, provided specific standards are met. Its critical pillars are expected to include qualified custody requirements, liquidity constraints and portfolio allocation caps.
Even after the major regulatory hurdle is cleared, however, broad adoption will likely unfold more akin to a glacial shift over several years than like a speculative spark.
The evolution from high-friction Self-Directed Brokerage Accounts (SDBAs) toward seamless inclusion in core menus and Target Date Funds relies on myriad critical factors, including fiduciary buy-in and platform compatibility. Investment consultants like Mercer, Aon and Willis Towers Watson serve as critical gatekeepers, and although they tend to move cautiously, allocation to alternatives is emerging as a top-of-mind issue. Simultaneously, the industry must bridge the gap between legacy ‘mutual fund plumbing’ and digital asset infrastructure to ensure 401(k) platforms can seamlessly handle the new asset class.
Still, the 401(k) market is critical not only due to its sheer size but also because of its unique flow profile acts as a mechanical volatility dampener. Because retirement participants are price-inelastic, their bi-weekly, non-discretionary payroll contributions provide a stabilizing bid that persists regardless of short-term market sentiment. This effect is reinforced by managed accounts and target-date funds (TDFs), which institutionalize “buying the dip” by automatically purchasing assets during market corrections to restore target weights.
Unlike the high-velocity debut of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the move into retirement accounts will likely be an accumulating wave that will build over years. Yet the sheer size and unique stability of this investor base make 2026 the year crypto’s role in the American nest egg became an undeniable, permanent fixture.
– David Lawant, head of research, Anchorage Digital
Ask an Expert
Q: What do Norges Bank and overseas hedge funds have in common?
Overseas hedge funds from Hong Kong and the UK are showing a massive appetite for regulated exposure, heavily accumulating spot bitcoin ETFs to build their portfolios. Laurore Ltd. has newly emerged with a 100% portfolio concentration IBIT.
In Pension fund growth, South Korea’s National Pension Service increased its MSTR exposure to $93.6 million, far outpacing the $3.5 million position held by Investment Management of Ontario (IMCO).
In Q4, the Central Bank of Norway opened a new position of MSTR valued at $536 million.
Q: Is Canada’s bitcoin bet starting to cool off?
National Bank of Canada cut its stake in MSTR by 51% in Q4 2025, reducing shares simultaneously with the stock’s price drop. The bank’s position dropped from $659 million to $152 million in this quarter. Notably, the bank also holds $52.4 million in put options on MSTR.
Q: What does the global regulator roadmap tell us about bitcoin’s trajectory into 2026 and beyond?
The direction is towards legalization. Regulatory timelines show a coordinated global build-out with MiCAR implemented across the EU in June 2025, the GENUIS Act signed in the US in July 2025, and HK, Singapore andthe UAE all establishing formal digital asset frameworks. Looking further, Canadian Securities Administrators are expected to propose amendments enabling broader tokenization of securities and ETFs in Q4 2026.
Driven by regulatory clarity and the continued adoption of digital asset ETFs, institutional investors view them as strategic assets for diversification and long-term growth.
– Kevin Tam, digital asset research specialist
Keep Reading
MetaMask has partnered with Mastercard to launch a new payment card program in the United States that links spending to on-chain rewards. The rollout includes a Virtual Card users can start with immediately and a MetaMask Metal Card available for pre-order.
The card is also available to New York residents, a notable inclusion given the state’s tighter posture toward crypto-linked financial products.
MetaMask says the Metal Card offers 3% cashback on the first $10,000 of spend, zero foreign transaction fees, and additional benefits tied to a new rewards program.
US Residents Can Now Earn On-Chain Points Via Mastercard
MetaMask’s new rewards layer turns everyday activity—transfers, transactions, and card spending—into points.
Users can redeem those points for ecosystem perks such as discounts, token allocations, and early access opportunities.
Unlike older crypto card models that often rely on holding funds on an exchange, MetaMask frames this card as an extension of a self-custody wallet experience. Users manage assets through MetaMask, while the card lets them pay through Mastercard’s merchant network.
The launch highlights how wallet providers now compete directly in payments. Crypto products are using rewards to keep users inside their ecosystem rather than pushing them toward centralized platforms.
At the same time, the model still depends on intermediaries. Users should also consider practical frictions: crypto-to-fiat conversion at checkout can create taxable events, and fees, limits, eligible tokens, and network support can shape the real value of “cashback” in day-to-day use.
MetaMask’s card push lands as major payment networks and fintech partners race to make stablecoins and on-chain balances spendable at mainstream merchants.
Gate Technology gains MFSA PSD2 license, expanding EU payment and stablecoin services.
Summary
- Gate Technology Ltd, Gate.com’s Malta-based entity, obtained an MFSA Payment Institution license under PSD2, making it one of few crypto-native firms with this approval in Europe.
- The firm previously secured a MiCA license for exchange and custody, and will now passport PSD2 rights to roll out compliant payment services and fiat–Web3 rails across the EU.
- Gate reports over 30–36m registered users and ranks among the top three global spot exchanges by volume and liquidity, underlining the scale of its regulated expansion push.
Gate Technology Ltd, the Malta-based entity of cryptocurrency exchange Gate, has obtained a Payment Institution license under the European Union’s Second Payment Services Directive (PSD2) from the Malta Financial Services Authority (MFSA), the company announced.
The license places Gate among crypto-native companies in Europe to secure this level of regulatory approval, according to the announcement.
Giovanni Cunti, CEO of Gate Technology Ltd, stated the license positions Gate to build infrastructure between traditional finance and Web3, delivering compliant payment solutions to clients across Europe. Cunti noted the license establishes a foundation for future financial services and provides regulatory certainty for institutional and retail clients in the European market.
The development follows Gate’s earlier regulatory achievements in Malta, where the company previously obtained a Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) license to provide exchange and custody services, according to the announcement.
Gate’s compliance strategy spans multiple jurisdictions including Malta, Cyprus, the Bahamas, Japan, Australia, and Dubai, the company reported.
The PSD2 license enables Gate to expand payment services across the European Union through passporting rights, according to the announcement. The license allows Gate to integrate traditional finance mechanisms with Web3 applications.
Gate was founded in 2013. The company’s flagship platform, Gate.com, serves over 49 million users globally and ranks among the top three crypto exchanges worldwide by market share, according to company data.
The announcement included a disclaimer stating the content does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation, and that Gate may restrict or prohibit services for users from restricted regions.
U.S. demand for Bitcoin has strengthened as pricing data shows a shift in exchange dynamics. The Coinbase Premium Index has turned positive after nearly two months in negative territory. The move signals renewed domestic appetite as Bitcoin rebounds from recent weakness.
Bitcoin Premium Turns Positive on Coinbase
The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has moved back into positive territory after weeks of discount pricing. The shift reflects higher Bitcoin prices on Coinbase compared with Binance. Market data shows the spread has widened to around $10 in favor of Coinbase.
This pricing difference indicates stronger demand on the U.S.-based exchange. Analysts from CryptoQuant highlighted the change and linked it to institutional flows. They noted that Coinbase Advanced remains a preferred venue for large-volume trading.
Ein leises Signal aus den USA, aber genau das ist oft entscheidend. 🤔
Das Coinbase Premium Gap ist wieder positiv. Das heißt: Bitcoin wird auf Coinbase leicht teurer gehandelt als auf Binance. Aktuell liegt der Aufschlag bei rund 10 Dollar. Das gilt als Hinweis auf… https://t.co/Gz19M9cS5Z
— MissCrypto (@MissCryptoGER) February 25, 2026
The premium had stayed negative for almost two months before this reversal. During that period, Bitcoin faced persistent selling pressure across global exchanges. However, the recent positive reading suggests improved sentiment within the U.S. market.
Bitcoin has faced a difficult start to the year despite periodic rallies. The asset has declined about 24% since January and remains far below its peak. It currently trades near $67,151 after gaining nearly 6% within 24 hours.
The all-time high of $126,198 still stands as a distant benchmark. Despite the rebound, Bitcoin remains roughly 47% below that record level. Even so, the latest premium data suggests renewed domestic accumulation.
Market participants interpret the premium as a demand gauge rather than a price guarantee. A positive reading often signals stronger buying activity in the United States. However, analysts stress that the metric alone does not confirm a sustained trend reversal.
Quantum Risk and Market Structure Influence Outlook
Research from CoinShares has addressed concerns around quantum computing risks. The firm estimates that quantum threats to Bitcoin remain at least 10 to 20 years away. It also expects developers to implement protective measures through protocol upgrades.
The report suggests that network participants would likely adopt soft fork solutions. Such changes could strengthen cryptographic security before quantum risks materialize. Therefore, long-term structural risk appears limited under current projections.
Beyond technological concerns, liquidity conditions continue to shape price action. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have influenced market flows in recent months. Large issuers have adjusted holdings in response to demand and redemption patterns.
BlackRock has periodically reduced Bitcoin exposure within its ETF products. These sales have added an intermittent supply to the market. Consequently, price momentum has faced additional resistance during recent rallies.
Futures market data also reflects elevated selling pressure. Bears have maintained dominance in derivatives positioning over recent weeks. This activity has coincided with a three-month high in aggregate selling pressure.
Despite these headwinds, the premium shift indicates improving domestic sentiment. The U.S. market often acts as a liquidity anchor during volatility. Therefore, sustained positive premiums could support price stabilization.
Binance Pricing and Global Exchange Dynamics
Binance pricing has remained slightly below Coinbase levels during the recent shift. This gap has reinforced the positive Coinbase Premium Index reading. The difference highlights regional demand imbalances across exchanges.
Global liquidity fragmentation often creates short-term arbitrage opportunities. Traders respond quickly to pricing inefficiencies between major platforms. However, persistent spreads typically reflect broader regional sentiment trends.
The current premium suggests stronger spot accumulation within the United States. At the same time, international markets show more balanced demand conditions. This divergence has shaped recent intraday price behavior.
Bitcoin’s rebound followed several sessions of downward pressure earlier in the week. Buyers entered the market after prices approached short-term support zones. As a result, momentum indicators have improved modestly.
The asset’s 24-hour gain has helped restore confidence after extended consolidation. Trading volumes have also increased alongside the price recovery. Higher turnover supports the view of renewed engagement on U.S. exchanges.
While the premium alone cannot define the next trend, it provides directional context. Sustained positive readings often align with constructive price phases. Therefore, the market now assesses whether domestic demand can offset broader structural pressures.
Bitcoin continues to trade below its historical peak despite the recent uptick. Nevertheless, exchange-based metrics now signal a potential shift in demand balance. Market participants will assess whether this dynamic can extend the ongoing recovery.
Bitcoin is on the verge of surpassing 20,000 wallets with at least 100 Bitcoin, an indicator that could signal healthy market dynamics, according to crypto analytics platform Santiment.
As of Thursday, there were 19,993 unique wallets holding 100 BTC or more, worth roughly $6.71 million per wallet at the time of publication, Santiment said in an X post on Thursday. Santiment anticipates that the milestone could be reached by Friday.
“If the number of 100+ BTC wallets is growing, that suggests distribution across more large holders rather than a small group controlling everything,” Santiment said. It is an important signal for Bitcoiners, as it reduces the perceived risk that a small number of whales can significantly swing prices.
Santiment points to “less extreme consolidation”
“In that sense, it points to less extreme consolidation at the very top,” Santiment said.
The trend also hints at rising confidence in a turnaround for Bitcoin (BTC), which is down around 47% from its October all-time high of $126,100 and is currently trading at $67,260, according to CoinMarketCap.
Santiment explained that an increase in the number of large wallet holders after a Bitcoin price drop can be a bullish signal.
However, it noted that the overall percentage of supply held by this cohort hasn’t changed, suggesting that while new wallets are reaching 100 Bitcoins, some long-term holders are likely selling.
“This is why prices have stayed suppressed,” Santiment said.
Are Bitcoin OGs done “selling aggressively” for now?
Fears that long-term Bitcoin holders are selling have been ramping up over the past three months and are widely seen as a key catalyst behind the recent pullback.
Bitcoin analyst Will Clemente said on Jan. 14 that “it seems like Bitcoin OGs are done selling aggressively for now.”
Related: Bitcoin bear market not ‘over already’ as price rejects at $68K trend line
As for near-term price action, MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said in an X post on Thursday that Bitcoin must “find a higher low and we’ll be continuing the trend upwards.”
“So far, so good for Bitcoin,” van de Poppe said.
Magazine: 6 massive challenges Bitcoin faces on the road to quantum security
The Solana-based AI memecoin is up 170% over the past month.
PIPPIN, an AI-driven memecoin on the Solana blockchain, surged 23% over the past 24 hours, outperforming large-cap cryptocurrencies as traders rotated into narrative-focused tokens.
The coin is currently hovering around $0.87, up 70% over the past week and 169% over the past month. It boasts a market capitalization of around $870 million, with daily trading volume above $70 million, according to CoinGecko.
The rally comes as AI-linked tokens have regained attention across crypto markets in recent days. The AI token sector’s market cap today is $13.8 billion, up 5.6% over 24 hours. The meme-coin market is also higher at $34.6 billion, up 4.7%, with PIPPIN leading the surge. Meanwhile, the global cryptocurrency market cap stands at $2.38 trillion, down 2.2% on the day.
PIPPIN’s move also reflects a broader trend of markets reacting to AI narratives, where even hypothetical scenarios have recently moved stocks and crypto. However, some experts say the rally has no clear driver.
“The PIPPIN AI-meme token has been going up since early December 2025. There isn’t too much known about why,” Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at Nansen, told The Defiant. “In addition, much of the supply is on exchanges (GATE), which further reduces the likelihood of understanding what is going on.”
Sondergaard explained that there also aren’t many smart money or public figures in it anymore, and that a majority of the top holders are labeled on-chain as “investment recipients.”
“This could insinuate somewhat centralized control,” Sondergaard added. “Alas, this cannot be proven or disproven at this point, even if accusations such as these have been flying around on CT.”
CoinGecko also cautioned traders to do their research before trading PIPPIN, as Bubblemap data found that 80% of its supply is controlled by interconnected insider wallets.
Crypto World
Google’s Gemini AI Predicts the Price of XRP, Dogecoin and Shiba Inu by the end of 2026
Google’s Gemini AI leverages its parent company’s vast data sets whenever forming conclusions.
It’s somewhat surprising, given months of red candles, that Gemini is pretty bullish XRP, Dogecoin, and Shiba Inu, and thinks all of them will hit towering new all-time highs (ATHs) over the next ten months.
But how realistic are Gemini’s projections?
XRP ($XRP): Gemini AI Prophesies 9x Surge To $13 by Christmas
In a recent update, Ripple reiterated that XRP ($XRP) remains a core pillar of its long-term vision to establish the XRP Ledger as a global, enterprise-ready payments network.
With fast settlement times and minimal transaction costs, the XRP Ledger is in a great position to capitalize on two rapidly expanding areas: stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets.
Currently trading around $1.44, Gemini’s long-term forecasting points to a 2026 high of $13, implying gains of 9x for current HODLers.
Technical indicators asupport this scenario. XRP’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a neutral 43 and the price has converged with the 30-day moving average, hinting that the prolonged and painful consolidation phase might be over.
Additional price drivers could include institutional demand following the rollout of U.S. listed XRP ETFs, Ripple’s growing network of global partnerships, and improved regulatory clarity if the U.S. passes the CLARITY bill this year.
Dogecoin (DOGE): Is the $1 Milestone Finally on the Horizon?
Launched in 2013 as a parody, Dogecoin ($DOGE) is now one of the most recognized digital assets, with a market capitalization of almost $15 billion, nearly half of the $35 billion meme coin sector.
DOGE last peaked at $0.7316 during the retail-fueled crypto rally of 2021.
For much of its history, the Dogecoin community has rallied around the goal of reaching $1. According to Gemini AI, under strong bullish conditions DOGE could comfortably overshoot that target this year, after clearing sticky resistance at $0.20 and $0.40.
With the token currently trading just below $0.10, a move toward $1.50 would net an explosive 15x for current holders.
Real-world adoption continues apace. Tesla accepts DOGE for select merchandise, while PayPal and Revolut now support Dogecoin transactions.
Shiba Inu (SHIB): Gemini AI Thinks a 1,500% SHIB Rally is Incoming
Shiba Inu ($SHIB), introduced in 2020 as a tongue-in-cheek rival to Dogecoin, has since grown into an ecosystem with a market capitalization of over $3.5 billion.
At its current price near $0.000006, Gemini’s analysis suggests that a decisive breakout above the $0.000025–$0.00003 resistance range could trigger strong upside momentum, potentially pushing SHIB toward $0.0001 before year-end.
That move would equate to gains of roughly 17x, placing it just above SHIB’s October 2021 ATH of $0.00008616.
The project offers much more than just meme coin speculation. Shiba Inu’s Ethereum Layer-2 network, Shibarium, delivers faster transaction speeds, reduced fees, enhanced privacy features, and a more robust environment for developers.
Maxi Doge: Early-Stage Meme Coin Targets Outsized Growth
While Gemini’s outlook suggests Dogecoin and Shiba Inu could still post significant gains, their already sizable market caps limits extreme upside in a bull run compared with smaller, newer, canine coins.
Maxi Doge ($MAXI) is coming for them. The project has raised $4.6 million in its ongoing presale as traders pile in to snap up the next biggest Doge-themed coin before the CLARITY Act passes.
Maxi Doge is a loud, degenerate, gym bro and alpha doge. He claims to be both a rival and an envious distant cousin to Dogecoin in a viral marketing campaign that embraces the fun and irreverent tone that defined the 2021 meme coin boom.
MAXI is issued as an ERC-20 token on the Ethereum proof-of-stake network, resulting in a smaller environmental footprint compared with Dogecoin’s proof-of-work model.
Early presale buyers can currently stake MAXI for returns of up to 67% APY, with yields gradually decreasing as the staking pool expands.
The token is $0.0002806 in the current presale stage, with automatic price increases scheduled at each funding milestone. Purchases are supported via wallets such as MetaMask and Best Wallet.
Stay updated through Maxi Doge’s official X and Telegram pages.
Visit the Official Website Here.
The post Google’s Gemini AI Predicts the Price of XRP, Dogecoin and Shiba Inu by the end of 2026 appeared first on Cryptonews.
Crypto World
Bitcoin (BTC) price tumbles below $48,000 on Lighter as $67 million sell order triggers flash crash
While the broader crypto market was ripping higher on Wednesday, bitcoin briefly plunged 30% to below $48,000 on decentralized perpetuals exchange Lighter in a violent move that lasted seconds.
The flash crash stood in sharp contrast to price action elsewhere. During the same session, bitcoin surged from below $64,000 to above $69,000, marking one of its strongest intraday rallies in weeks.
The extreme move appeared to have been isolated to Lighter, where thin liquidity amplified what would otherwise have been a routine trade. In shallow order books, even modest sell pressure can trigger exaggerated price swings, producing so-called flash crashes that don’t reflect the broader market.
That’s likely what happened on Lighter. A single sell order of roughly 1,000 bitcoin — worth about $67 million at the time — wiped out available bids and briefly sent prices spiraling, according to a Discord post by pseudonymous Web3 developer 0xTimberJ.
“Because Lighter is a newer DEX with less liquidity than centralized exchanges, the sell order wiped out all available bids and pushed the price down to ~$47k before recovering instantly,” 0xTimberJ wrote.
Lighter is an up-and-coming decentralized perpetuals exchange seeking to challenge category leader Hyperliquid. Perpetual futures, or “perps,” have become crypto’s dominant derivatives product, allowing traders to use leverage and take long or short positions around the clock without contract expirations.
The platform briefly captured significant market share last November, processing over $292 billion in monthly volume — roughly a quarter of the $1.15 trillion traded across exchanges, according to data by The Block.
But activity has cooled sharply since its token airdrop late last year. Traders who ramped up activity to farm rewards have since rotated out, and monthly volume fell to $70 billion in February out of a $500 billion total market, trailing rivals such as Hyperliquid, Aster and EdgeX.
U.K. investors will no longer be able to add crypto exchange-traded notes (ETNs) to their tax-free individual savings accounts (ISAs) after the start of the new tax year on April 6, the Financial Times (FT) reported on Wednesday.
The tax authority, His Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC), will reclassify cryptocurrency ETNs as qualifying instruments only for Innovative Finance ISAs (IFISAs), rather than the more mainstream stocks and shares ISAs.
ISAs allow users to put away up to 20,000 pounds ($27,000) a year without paying income tax or capital gains tax on the returns. The two main types are cash ISAs, bank account-like investments that pay interest, and stocks and shares ISAs, which invest in equities and exchange-traded instruments.
The Financial Conduct Authority’s decision to lift the ban on retail investors accessing crypto ETNs last October was seen as a major development in the adoption of cryptocurrency investments in the U.K., as it raised the possibility of the vehicles being added to everyday products like ISAs.
Limiting them to IFISAs means this opportunity will be snuffed out because no mainstream investment platforms offer them. IFISAs are a somewhat obscure investment wrapper, offered largely for purposes of peer-to-peer lending and crowdfunding. None of the 57 platforms currently authorized to offer IFISAs have plans to support crypto ETNs, according to the FT’s report, depriving investors of the tax shield that ISAs provide.
Investors who already have crypto ETN holdings in their ISAs will not be forced to sell them, however, as doing so “could risk some level of market disruption,” HMRC said.
The authority said the ruling was due to crypto ETNs’ “innovative nature and the fact that is an emerging market,” and it would keep the decision under review with a view to including them in stocks and shares ISAs at a later date.
The decision risks positioning the U.K. as an outlier among major financial markets, where exchange-traded products (ETPs) have opened the door to crypto investment for a much wider base of users because they remove some of the technical aspects such as needing to deal with crypto exchanges and wallets.
George Bauer, Fidelity’s head of investment and product for global platform solutions, said the government’s approach “challenges the intention of allowing regulated access to crypto assets,” the FT reported.
“We would encourage the government and HMRC to reconsider this and allow access through stocks-and-shares ISAs which are much more widely used.”
HMRC did not respond to CoinDesk’s request for comment.
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