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Bitcoin advances to $71,000 while derivatives signal cautious bullishness: Crypto Markets Today

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Bitcoin advances to $71,000 while derivatives signal cautious bullishness: Crypto Markets Today

Bitcoin is currently trading at around $71,000 having risen by 0.25% since midnight UTC, adding to a broader 24 hour rally of 4%.

Asian hours were favorable to AI tokens, with bittensor (TAO) and adding 5.8% and 4.1% apiece. The rise followed comments from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who claimed that artificial general intelligence (AGI) — a term for AI that matches the cognitive abilities of human beings — has already been achieved.

Still, the main market driver continues to be the war in the Middle East following fresh strikes in Tel Aviv and Lebanon on Tuesday. On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump said a 48-hour ultimatum over the Strait of Hormuz had been put on hold following “good and productive” peace talks with Iran, although Iranian officials called it “fake news.”

Oil remains at around $100 per barrel while U.S. equities are in the red, with Nasdaq 100 futures and S&P 500 futures both down by around 0.1% since midnight.

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The crypto market has remained relatively resilient during the conflict, with bitcoin outperforming gold, a traditional haven asset, since the start of the war.

Derivatives positioning

  • Over $550 million in leveraged crypto futures bets have been liquidated in 24 hours, with shorts or bearish bets taking most of the hit.
  • Bitcon’s 4%, 24-hour price gain isn’t backed by increased participation in futures, as open interest (OI) in major USD- and USDT-denominated futures has declined to 228,000 BTC from 229,000 BTC.
  • A similar pattern is seen in ETH, XRP and SOL markets.
  • DOGE, ADA, SUI, AVAX, LINK, and PAXG futures have seen open interest decline by as much as 10%.
  • Most tokens have seen aggressive bidding, as evidenced by their positive 24-hour cumulative volume deltas. CRO, XMR and TON stand out with negative CVDs.
  • Perpetual funding rates for majors also paint a bullish picture, with values between 5% to 10%.
  • On Deribit, BTC and ETH puts continue to show a net bias for protective put options across all time frames. However, they now trade at 5 to 6 volatility point premium to calls versus 8 to 10 early Monday.
  • Block flows featured demand for the BTC put condor, a directionally neutral strategy designed to profit from low volatility. In ETH’s case, risk reversals dominated flows.

Token talk

  • Several altcoins have outperformed bitcoin since midnight, with HYPE, OP and CRV all gaining around 3% as traders rotated into more speculative assets in anticipation of a wider market breakout.
  • The bitcoin-dominant CoinDesk 20 (CD20) Index is up by 0.3% on Tuesday, while the altcoin-heavy CoinDesk 80 (CD80) has risen by more than 1%, indicating improving sentiment among the altcoin sector.
  • The caveat to the improving sentiment is the state of the DeFi industry. One market watcher described the current landscape as a “really dark” period after Balancer Labs shut down operations and the Resolv stablecoin project was hacked Another criticized the lack of yield opportunities coupled the inherent risk that comes with using DeFi protocols.
  • The memecoin sector is another feeling the strain. The CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) is the worst performing benchmark on Tuesday, rising just 0.1% with several of the index components losing 3%-5%.

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Crypto World

Treasury Spike, Inflation Risk, Iran War Contagion Pin Bitcoin Price

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Treasury Spike, Inflation Risk, Iran War Contagion Pin Bitcoin Price

Key takeaways:

  • Investors dumped gold and bonds for cash as war-driven oil spikes and inflation forced a defensive market stance.

  • Rising yields and a 20% rate hike chance signal a tight outlook, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable amid soaring US debt.

Bitcoin (BTC) retested the $67,500 support level on Monday, a move that coincided with gold prices suffering their sharpest correction in over 50 years. Fears of a prolonged war in Iran and the inflationary impact of oil prices holding above $85 pushed investors to cut risk.

US 5-year Treasury yields (left) vs. Gold/USD (right). Source: TradingView

US Treasuries also faced a sell-off during this period, suggesting that traders aggressively built cash positions. Yields on the US 5-year Treasury jumped to 4.10%, marking a nine-month high as traders demanded better returns. With the S&P 500 hitting its lowest point in over six months on Monday, evidence suggested a broad rush to liquidity.

Cash is king amid economic uncertainty, while Bitcoin risks further downside

Investors appeared to be raising cash either to cover recent losses or to brace for further price drops across risk markets.

Bitcoin/USD (left) vs. S&P 500 futures (right). Source: TradingView

The ongoing war in Iran pushed oil prices past $90, creating inflationary pressure. The Wall Street Journal reported that the US planned to deploy roughly 3,000 troops to the Middle East to counter Iran’s influence over the Strait of Hormuz. Part of the decline in gold prices was likely linked to fading expectations for US monetary policy easing in the near term.

Interest rate target probabilities for the July FOMC meeting. Source: CME FedWatch Tool

Bond market futures showed that the implied probability of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) hiking interest rates by July surged to 20.5%, up from 0% just one week prior. Investors anticipated a cooling job market as high interest rates continued to reduce corporate expansion incentives.

Tech stocks fall, inflation hurts consumers

US legislators debated an additional $200 billion in funding to support the war in Iran, according to The Washington Post. Kevin Hassett, director of the US National Economic Council, stated that $12 billion had already been spent. Lawmakers did not authorize the war, and Congress showed growing unease with the military strategy, according to AP.

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Meanwhile, the US national debt soared past $39 trillion, which further pushed consumers toward a cost-of-living crisis. Fear of excessive speculative investment in the artificial intelligence sector emerged after Reuters reported that ChatGPT maker OpenAI offered private-equity firms a guaranteed minimum return of 17.5% while the company remained largely unprofitable.

Tech stocks performance. Source: TradingView

Some of the world’s largest tech companies faced losses of 10% or more over the past six weeks, including Google (GOOG US), Meta (META US), and IBM (IBM US). Thus, regardless of the sharp correction in gold prices, traders increasingly feared recession risks or a surge in inflation above the 4% fixed income returns.

Related: Bitcoin holders shift from panic to cash-buffer discipline as volatility deepens

The combination of declining stock prices and persistent inflationary pressure explained why investors aggressively sought the safety of cash positions.

Regardless of favorable Bitcoin onchain metrics, broader macroeconomic conditions remained unfavorable for sustainable bullish momentum. The decline in gold prices while investors offloaded US Treasuries served as a sign of risk aversion. The odds of a $66,000 retest remain a serious threat, at least until inflation and war expenses hold US monetary policy tight for a longer period.

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