Crypto World
Bitcoin Bounces Back Mildly After Iran Conflict Sends Crypto Markets into a Sharp Sell-Off
TLDR:
- Bitcoin dropped 3.8% to nearly $63,000 after joint US-Israel strikes on Iran rattled crypto markets on Saturday.
- The total crypto market shed $128 billion in minutes, triggering forced liquidations across digital asset exchanges.
- Bitcoin ETF inflows totaling $1 billion over three sessions last week are now the key metric traders are watching closely.
- Call options concentrated at $75,000 on Deribit suggest traders are positioning for a recovery ahead of the Fed meeting.
Bitcoin staged a tepid recovery on Sunday as geopolitical tensions rattled investor confidence. Joint US and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered a sharp sell-off on Saturday.
The total crypto market lost $128 billion in value within minutes. Traders are now watching for a confirmed bottom before committing to a stronger position.
Market Reacts Sharply to Geopolitical Escalation
Digital assets fell quickly after news broke of the joint US-Israel military campaign on Saturday. Bitcoin dropped as much as 3.8%, briefly touching nearly $63,000 during the session.
The rapid decline forced cascading liquidations across the broader crypto market. Data from CoinGecko confirmed the $128 billion wipe across the total crypto market capitalization.
Hayden Hughes, managing partner at Tokenize Capital, weighed in on the speed of the sell-off. “Over $128 billion wiped in minutes, forced liquidations cascaded, and once that selling exhausted itself, the reflex bounce was mechanical,” Hughes said.
Iran followed with counterstrikes targeting Israel, Qatar, the UAE, and Bahrain. Threats against US-linked bases in Iraq added further pressure to market sentiment.
Hughes also flagged Monday’s US equity market reopening as the defining moment for crypto. “The real price discovery happens Monday when US equity markets and Bitcoin ETFs reopen,” he noted.
“With missiles hitting Dubai, Iranian retaliation across the Gulf, and Strait of Hormuz closure risk, this is not a contained event,” he added. Last week saw $1 billion in inflows over three consecutive sessions in spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Hughes further warned that a reversal of ETF inflows could push Bitcoin below $63,000. Bitcoin ETF flows will be “the single most important number to watch,” he stated.
Put options worth $1.87 billion were concentrated at the $60,000 strike on Deribit. That concentration signals persistent demand for downside protection among traders.
Meanwhile, $529 million in contracts were traded on Polymarket around the timing of a US strike. That activity shows how closely crypto markets tracked the geopolitical situation throughout the weekend.
Traders Position for Recovery Ahead of Fed Meeting
Bitcoin rose as much as 2.2% to $68,196 on Sunday after Iran confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The bounce was short-lived, with prices pulling back to around $67,000 by 7:30 a.m. London time. Still, some market observers viewed the mild recovery as a constructive signal. Traders appeared to be looking past the Iran turmoil in early positioning.
Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, pointed to growing optimism among options traders. “Traders generally don’t expect the Iran conflict to have major negative economic consequences, and demand for upside Bitcoin calls has clearly picked up in recent days,” Thielen said.
Bitcoin call options were concentrated around the $75,000 strike level on Deribit. Traders were also factoring in positioning ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.
Richard Galvin, co-founder of Digital Asset Capital Management, offered a measured read on Saturday’s price action.
The US attack was, to a large extent, already factored in by traders who “used the weakness as a buy-the-dip or close-their-shorts opportunity,” Galvin said.
That behavior reflects a calculated response rather than panic selling. The coming sessions will clarify whether the recovery holds any real conviction.
Decentralized, blockchain-based messaging and social media apps saw a surge of interest over the last year amid civil unrest and communication blackouts in the Middle East, Asia and Africa.
Search interest in decentralized social media has grown 145% over the last five years, according to Exploding Topics, while decentralized peer-to-peer messaging service Bitchat saw a spike in downloads during protests in Madagascar, Uganda, Nepal, Indonesia and Iran in recent months.
“I think people are starting to trust open protocols more than they trust closed companies,” Shane Mac, the CEO of XMTP Labs, told Cointelegraph in a recent interview.
XMTP Labs is a startup focused on building decentralized communication technology. Mac said that unrest around the world is pushing people to explore decentralized messaging options and think more about privacy.
WhatsApp, the messaging app owned by social media giant Meta, said in February that Russia had moved forward with its block on the app, making it inaccessible without a VPN or similar workaround.
“The last 15 years have been centralized, and the next 15 are going to decentralize. When you see an entire country shut down single apps, it tells you that there has to be a new foundation that we need to go build on,” added Mac.
“Open source is having a moment. Open protocols, open financial systems, open communication protocols, open identity standards. It’s going to be a really cool next era of the internet as decentralization and open standards come back.”
No single point of failure
Mac said decentralized networks can provide a safe harbor during turmoil as they’re typically harder to shut down without a single point of failure.
Decentralized platforms are generally hosted across networks spanning multiple countries, with servers managed by their participants.
In comparison, centralized options run on a single collection of servers controlled by one entity or company, which can be blocked and taken offline more easily.
He added that the technology is only getting better as developers and users push the boundaries.
“Someone took the open source Bitchat client and put the XMTP network inside of it, because they were getting their app shut down in their country. The connection of mesh networks and decentralized networks meant the app is no longer the single point of failure,” Mac said.
Decentralized messengers won’t replace the old guard
Market researcher 360 Research Reports predicted in a March 2 report that the blockchain messaging market will grow significantly over the next few years, with main drivers such as global demand for enhanced privacy and security in communication fueling the growth.
However, despite rising user interest, Mac said centralized platforms will likely remain popular and operate alongside decentralized alternatives. Developers will need to step up and keep innovating to sustain that momentum.
Exploding Topics found that social media users now spread their time across an average of 6.75 social media platforms per month.
Related: Telegram’s Durov: We’re ‘running out of time to save the free internet’
“I don’t think it will end up killing things; you built a new platform. SMS and email didn’t die to build encrypted messaging; I don’t know if they go away,” Mac said, referring to centralized messengers.
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Crypto and broader markets faced renewed volatility as tensions between the United States and Iran intensified, sending oil prices fluctuating and risk appetite shifting. The week’s escalation comes amid a backdrop of macro uncertainty and a fragile risk-off mood that has influenced how traders view Bitcoin and other digital assets.
President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. would “hit and obliterate” Iranian power plants if Tehran did not open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, a warning that drew immediate responses from Iran about retaliation against U.S. and Israeli targets in the Gulf and potential closure of the strategic chokepoint. The standoff has kept investors on edge as markets weigh potential disruptions to energy flows and the global geopolitical risk premium.
Bitcoin slipped 1.8% over the past 24 hours to around $68,160 after earlier dipping below $67,600, with a notable surge in liquidations across the crypto space. Data from CoinGlass showed about $336.3 million in liquidations in the last day, driven in part by a large chunk of the activity—roughly $100 million—stemming from failed Bitcoin long bets. The move underscores how crypto markets are currently behaving in tandem with broader risk-off dynamics rather than acting as a pure safe haven.
Analysts have observed that crypto prices have been correlated with equities as geopolitical risk and macro cues influence investor behavior. “Crypto is trading in lockstep with equities right now, not as a haven, and sentiment is sitting at historic lows, with the Fear and Greed Index deep in ‘extreme fear’ territory at 8,” said Rachael Lucas, an analyst at the crypto exchange BTC Markets.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin fell about 1.8% in 24 hours to roughly $68,160, with a low near $67,600, as risk assets reeled from intensifying US-Iran tensions.
- Crypto liquidations totaled $336.3 million in the last day, with roughly $100 million attributed to failed Bitcoin long bets, per CoinGlass.
- Oil markets reacted sharply: crude briefly topped $100, Brent crude surged to above $113, then settled under that level, while the Fed’s rate-hike expectations rose to around 12.4% probability in a week, signaling a macro repricing that crypto will track.
- Despite the near-term volatility, institutional interest remains evident, with about $1.43 billion in net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs observed this month, suggesting ongoing structural demand alongside a fragile sentiment backdrop.
- Key price levels to watch for Bitcoin: immediate support around $68,000, with $65,800 as the next line of defense if that gives way; a recovery narrative would gain traction if Bitcoin can reclaim around $71,500.
Geopolitics, macro signals, and the crypto response
Beyond the immediate price moves, the market backdrop is colored by a complex mix of geopolitical risk and macroeconomic signals. The Trump administration’s warning and Iran’s stated readiness to retaliate against U.S. and Israeli targets in the Gulf have kept the Strait of Hormuz—a vital oil artery—perceived as a potential flashpoint. While the oil reaction has been volatile, with futures briefly spiking above $100 per barrel before stabilizing, the broader implication is a potential acceleration of inflation expectations if energy costs remain elevated. In turn, investors have priced in higher probabilities of a Federal Reserve response, with futures indicating a non-negligible chance of a rate increase in the near term.
Lucas highlighted that Brent’s move is feeding inflation expectations and that the probability of a Fed rate hike has jumped in a short period, a dynamic that could ripple through crypto markets as investors reassess risk and liquidity. “That is a significant macro repricing that crypto will continue to reflect until there is clarity on both fronts,” she said.
Market structure and the recovery path
The latest price action adds another chapter to the ongoing debate about Bitcoin’s role in a world characterized by macro shocks and geopolitical risk. While the selloff underscores a current lack of broad risk appetite, it also spotlights robust institutional infrastructure. According to BTC Markets’ analyst, even with volatility, there remains substantial institutional exposure to Bitcoin through vehicles like ETFs, which have seen meaningful inflows this month.
For traders, the immediate technical watchpoints are crucial: Bitcoin’s near-term floor sits around $68,000, with a more meaningful support at about $65,800 if that zone yields. On the upside, reclaiming the $71,500 level would likely mark a transition back toward a recovery narrative, though timing remains uncertain as global risk factors evolve.
As the market awaits clearer signals on de-escalation in the Middle East and a more defined path for U.S. monetary policy, investors will be watching both macro prompts and on-chain behavior. The near-term linkage between oil swings, equity markets, and crypto suggests that any sustained improvement will likely require a combination of reduced geopolitical risk and a stable, gradual normalization in macro expectations.
The latest data also suggests sustaining traction from the institutional side could help underpin a more resilient price trajectory. With $1.43 billion of net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs observed this month, the groundwork for a more constructive environment remains in place even as volatility persists.
Oil and macro developments aside, the crypto market’s sensitivity to sentiment means traders should stay vigilant for abrupt shifts in risk appetite, liquidity conditions, and policy signals. The next few sessions could prove pivotal in determining whether Bitcoin can stabilize above key support levels or if fresh downside pressure emerges as investors weigh the evolving risk landscape.
Readers should watch for any signs of de-escalation in the US-Iran standoff and for upcoming macro updates from the Federal Reserve, which could further influence the path of Bitcoin and the broader crypto markets in the near term.
Crypto World
Stocks start catching up with bitcoin’s earlier meltdown to $60,000 as bond yields rise
Bitcoin began the year on a painful note, even as equity markets remained buoyant. But stock traders’ luck is now running out, as rising bond yields pressure valuations.
Prices for bitcoin plunged to nearly $60,000 from around $90,000 in the first five weeks of the year, according to CoinDesk data. The decline marked a sharp decoupling from the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which were trading at or near record highs at the time.
Analysts wondered how long the divergence would last — whether bitcoin would quickly bounce back or stocks would eventually catch up with the weakness in bitcoin.
The latter appears to be happening. Since the Iran war began on Feb. 28, fears over inflation and fading Fed rate-cut expectations have pushed U.S. Treasury yields sharply higher, putting pressure on equities.
The stock market’s weakness, appearing weeks after BTC’s decline, underscores the cryptocurrency’s role as a leading indicator for traditional risk assets. Traders in conventional markets often watch BTC to gauge overall risk sentiment, particularly on weekends or during days when traditional exchanges are closed.
Yields rise, stocks drop
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 4.41% soon before press time, the highest since Aug. 1. The benchmark borrowing cost has risen by 48 basis points since the onset of the Iran war. The U.S. two-year yield has jumped 57 basis points to 3.94%.
Treasury yields are considered the benchmark for risk-free interest rates and borrowing costs in the economy, such as corporate bonds, mortgages, student loans, etc., are priced relative to Treasuries. So, when yields rise, lenders typically increase rates on loans to maintain their spreads, which pushes borrowing costs higher for businesses and consumers. This leads to risk aversion in equities, which we are beginning to see now.
Futures tied to Wall Street’s tech heavy index Nasdaq fell to 23,890 points early Monday, the lowest since Sept. 11. The S&P 500 e-mini futures fell to 6,505 points, also the lowest since September.
CoinDesk recently highlighted that the price patterns of major stock indices bear a striking resemblance to bitcoin’s price action leading up to its crash. This similarity has raised concerns among analysts, suggesting that stocks could be at risk of further declines if the pattern continues to play out.
“Bitcoin has been at the top of the risk-assets iceberg, and its collapsing price could be early days of a broader drawdown — particularly if surging commodity volatility trickles up to stocks,” Bloomberg’s Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone said in a recent report.
Bitcoin steady
Having crashed early this year, BTC has held largely steady between $65,000 and $75,000 in recent weeks. As of writing, the cryptocurrency changed hands at $68,790.
Yet, pricing in options market shows peak fear, resulting in a record bias for put options, or derivative contracts offering protection from price slides in BTC.
Meta CEO and co-founder Mark Zuckerberg is reportedly building an AI agent to help handle his work in managing the company amid a company-wide push for employees to adopt agentic tech.
According to a report from The Wall Street Journal on Sunday, citing sources close to the matter, Zuckerberg’s AI agent is still in development but already being used to help the CEO speed up information retrieval.
Instead of going through multiple layers of people or teams to get the required information, the agent has been retrieving the information directly.
The move is part of a broader goal within the company to accelerate employee productivity and reduce layers of friction within its 78,000-strong employee base. The report adds that Meta is pushing to compete with AI-native startups that have much smaller teams.
Zuckerberg has previously alluded to this push, noting in an earnings call in late January that 2026 is going to be the year that “AI starts to dramatically change the way” Meta works, while also indicating there may be changes to the firm’s organizational structure moving forward.
“As we navigate this, our north star is building the best place for individuals to make a massive impact. So to do this, we’re investing in AI-native tooling so individuals at Meta can get more done, we’re elevating individual contributors, and flattening teams.”
The WSJ report highlights that Meta employees have been utilizing agentic tools such as MyClaw, which has been giving them access to work files and chat logs, while also enabling them to talk with colleagues or their AI agent counterparts.
Meta employees have also been said to be using Second Brain, another AI tool built on top of Anthropic’s Claude infrastructure to help speed up work on projects, which has been described internally as something akin to an “AI chief of staff,” according to the sources.
Meta could be eyeing mass layoffs
A recent report from Reuters claimed that the firm may be finalizing plans for another wave of layoffs to offset its expenditures and capitalize on AI efficiency gains.
In an article on March 14, Reuters cited three sources familiar with the matter who claimed that Meta could be planning layoffs that may impact up to 20% of the company.
The sources claimed that no date has been set yet and that the scale of the layoffs hasn’t been finalized.
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In a statement to Cointelegraph, Meta declined to comment on the WSJ article; however, a spokesperson responded to the Reuters reporting by saying that it was a “speculative report about theoretical approaches.”
The crypto sector has been hit by a wave of layoffs in 2026, with several firms outlining a renewed focus on AI.
Last week, blockchain data provider Messari announced a shuffling of executives and employee layoffs to make way for the company’s “next phase” of becoming an AI-first company.
Meanwhile, exchange Crypto.com also announced a 12% reduction in its workforce amid its own AI push.
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Boyaa Interactive International is the 23rd-largest Bitcoin treasury and the third-largest in Asia, behind Japan’s Metaplanet and China’s Next Technology Holding.
Hong Kong-based Web3 gaming firm Boyaa Interactive International said it is seeking shareholder approval to expand its crypto treasury, planning up to $70 million in purchases over the next year.
In a statement on Sunday, the Hong Kong-listed company said it is looking to use its “idle cash reserves during periods of weakness in the cryptocurrency market” to increase its existing positions and to support the research and development of Boyaa’s Web3 gaming business.
If approved by shareholders, Boyaa said it would invest in crypto tokens with “good market liquidity, large market value, wide recognition on the market and relatively long-term holding value.”
The $70 million would add to Boyaa’s nearly $3 billion treasury, which includes 4,091 Bitcoin (BTC) worth $2.8 billion and 302 Ether (ETH) worth $621,200.
Boyaa’s crypto treasury expansion plan comes as the crypto industry continues to grapple with a 45% market drawdown since October and growing doubt over the sustainability of crypto treasury strategies.
Few crypto treasury companies outside of Strategy and Bitmine Immersion Technologies have been buying crypto on a weekly basis over the last few months, while multiple Bitcoin miners have offloaded portions of their holdings.
Boyaa is a top-25 corporate Bitcoin treasury
Boyaa, which made $80.5 million worth of Bitcoin purchases between August and November, is currently the 23rd-largest corporate Bitcoin treasury and the third-largest in the Asia-Pacific region, trailing only Japan’s Metaplanet and China’s Next Technology Holding.
Related: Metaplanet forms new venture firm as it expands Bitcoin playbook
Boyaa expanded from online card and board games to Web3 gaming in late 2023, developing blockchain-based games and infrastructure, while making its first Bitcoin purchase in January 2024 to support that transition.
One of its offerings includes a Web3 version of a Texas Hold’em online poker platform it created in the early 2000s, offering Bitcoin rewards and crypto prizes.
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XRP dropped below the $1.40 level after a sharp wave of selling and is still struggling to recover, with buyers unable to push prices meaningfully higher. The weak bounce suggests selling pressure remains stronger than demand, keeping the token under pressure as traders look for signs of stabilization near current levels.
News Background
- XRP moved lower alongside broader crypto weakness, but the key driver was technical, with price losing the $1.40 level that had acted as near-term support.
- The token has struggled to sustain recovery attempts since mid-March, with rallies consistently fading below the $1.55–$1.60 area.
- Spot ETF flows showed limited improvement, with a modest $636K in weekly inflows — far below earlier demand, pointing to subdued institutional participation.
Price Action Summary
- XRP fell from $1.4404 to $1.3872, down roughly 3.7% over 24 hours.
- A high-volume move near 23:00 pushed price to $1.4018 before support gave way.
- Price then consolidated between $1.38 and $1.42, forming a descending intraday structure.
- A late bounce attempt toward $1.386 failed to hold, reinforcing near-term weakness.
Technical Analysis
- The break below $1.40 is the key development, confirming a loss of short-term structure and shifting momentum back toward sellers.
- Price is now trading in a descending channel between roughly $1.38 and $1.42, with lower highs forming on declining volume — a typical distribution pattern.
- Attempts to reclaim $1.40–$1.41 have been rejected, turning the level into immediate resistance.
- The broader trend remains bearish, with XRP still trading within a multi-month downtrend defined by lower highs since mid-2025.
What traders say is next?
- Traders are focused on whether the $1.38–$1.40 zone can hold as support.
- If this range stabilizes, XRP may consolidate before another attempt toward $1.41–$1.44, with a broader test near $1.55 needed to shift structure.
- A clean break below $1.38 would expose the $1.30–$1.32 zone, where support is thinner and downside could accelerate.
- For now, momentum favors sellers, with any bounce viewed as corrective until resistance levels are reclaimed.
Autonomous AI agent commerce could mean the end of online advertising as it is currently known today and shift the internet’s economic model, according to a16z Crypto.
Since the dawn of the internet, buying goods or services typically involves navigating to online stores (some through online advertisements). However, Merit Systems co-founder Sam Ragsdale argues this could change if AI agents do the shopping in the future.
From 1997 to 2024, the business model for the internet was “distraction,” said Ragsdale in an a16z blog post on Sunday.
“Humans reading a webpage can be distracted by an advert, monetizing their partial attention,” but LLMs and agents “do not get distracted,” he said.
The online advertising market size, which is dominated by search giant Google, was an estimated $291 billion in 2025, according to Mordor Intelligence.
“There is some beautiful irony in ads creating the free and open internet, which became the 10-trillion-token dataset that created LLMs, leading to the downfall of ads.”
Open protocols are the way forward
Ragsdale said the first step is already being seen, with AI platforms like ChatGPT and Gemini adding products like “Instant Checkout” for US users last year, allowing them to buy products directly within a conversation without needing to head to an external website.
Soon, hundreds of millions of consumers around the globe will “find better products, merchants will have improved conversion rates, and platforms will be able to take 5% to 10%,” he said.
However, these “checkout” services are just new “walled gardens,” Ragsdale explained, as merchants have to go through stringent approval processes to be included.
Related: AI agent payment volumes lower than reported, but adoption is growing: a16z
Instead, Ragsdale argued that the way forward will be AI agents with open protocols that allow them to discover products on their own.
“An agent that can only buy from pre-approved merchants is an employee with a corporate card restricted to three vendors. An agent with open protocols is an entrepreneur with a bank account,” he said.
Ragsdale concluded that a “clever hack” called advertising changed the internet forever, but in 2026, “that hack is dying,” arguing that open agentic commerce, powered by the x402 protocol developed by Coinbase or the Machine Payments Protocol (MPP) from Tempo and Stripe, is the future.
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Everything is selling. Bitcoin is selling the least.
Gold dropped for a ninth straight day on Monday to around $4,360, its longest losing streak in years. Asian stocks fell for a third session and are set to enter correction territory.
Bond yields climbed as the prolonged war threatened to stoke inflation and push central banks toward rate hikes rather than cuts. S&P and European futures pointed to further losses. Brent crude edged up to $113 a barrel, now up more than 70% year-to-date.
Bitcoin was trading at $68,316 on Monday morning, up 1.5% over the past 24 hours and down 6% on the week. Ether rose 2.7% to $2,059. XRP gained 2% to $1.38. Tron climbed 0.3% to $0.309, the only major green on a weekly basis at 3.8%. BNB fell 1.2% to $627. Solana dropped 2.5% to $86.54. Dogecoin lost 1.7% to $0.09, down 7.4% on the week and the worst-performing major.
The weekly numbers are ugly across the board. Gold, the asset that’s supposed to outperform in geopolitical chaos, has lost roughly 18% from its recent highs. Asian equities are entering a correction. Bitcoin is down 6% on the week but still trading above the $66,000 floor that held through every war-driven sell-off since Feb. 28.
“The gold rally and the BTC collapse are more structural than market-based,” said Alexander Blume, CEO of Two Prime, an SEC-registered investment advisor. “China and others have been systematically buying gold as part of a broader effort to decouple from Western markets and the US dollar.” That buying has reversed as the conflict intensified and liquidity became the priority over safety.
Blume noted that both bitcoin’s price and derivatives markets “have held up decently well” given the macro backdrop, and said Two Prime is positioned for “an increase in funding and futures rates in the weeks and months to come,” effectively betting the contrarian view that an upside surprise is more likely than the market expects.
Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum on Saturday to “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power plants if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened expires Monday evening. Iran responded that any such attack would trigger an indefinite closure of the waterway and retaliatory strikes on U.S. and Israeli energy infrastructure across the region.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs raised its full-year Brent forecast to $85 from $77 and WTI to $79 from $72, describing the Hormuz disruption as the “largest-ever supply shock for global crude markets.”
Crypto and the wider markets tumbled on Monday as the US and Iran escalated threats toward one another for the fourth week, sending oil prices seesawing.
US President Donald Trump posted to Truth Social on Sunday that the US would “hit and obliterate” Iranian power plants, “starting with the biggest one first,” if the country didn’t open the Strait within 48 hours.
Iran responded by saying it will answer any US strikes on its power or water infrastructure with attacks on US and Israeli assets in the Gulf and threatened to completely close the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s vital oil shipping lanes.
Bitcoin (BTC), long seen by its backers as a so-called “safe-haven” asset like gold, dropped 1.8% in the last 24 hours to $68,160, recovering from a low of below $67,600 in late trading on Sunday.
Bitcoin’s price drop caused a surge in liquidations across crypto, with $336.3 million wiped from the market in the last day, with nearly a third of the volume, or $100 million, caused by failed Bitcoin long bets, according to CoinGlass.
Rachael Lucas, an analyst at the crypto exchange BTC Markets, told Cointelegraph that crypto “is trading in lockstep with equities right now, not as a haven, and sentiment is sitting at historic lows, with the Fear and Greed Index deep in ‘extreme fear’ territory at 8.”
Oil chops, Asia markets fall
Stock markets around Asia also reacted to the tit-for-tat threats, with Australian and New Zealand markets both down 0.8%, while Japan had fallen over 4%.
The price of crude oil briefly spiked to a high of just over $100 a barrel in early trading on Monday before quickly dropping to $97.20. It has since steadily climbed to $99.30 at the time of writing.
Meanwhile, Brent crude oil, considered a benchmark for purchasing oil worldwide, jumped to over $114 per barrel but settled below $113.
Lucas said that the future of crypto markets hinges on the de-escalation of the Iran war and the decisions of the US Federal Reserve.
She added that Brent’s price jump “is feeding inflation expectations, and the probability of a Fed rate hike has jumped from zero to 12.4% in a single week.”
“That is a significant macro repricing that crypto will continue to reflect until there is clarity on both fronts,” she added.
Related: Bitcoin risks 50% drop as BTC’s positive correlation with US stocks grows
Lucas said if the Iran war de-escalates, “crypto would be among the fastest risk assets to recover. However, this conflict has no clear negotiating counterpart and no defined exit timeline, which makes that outcome difficult to call in the near term.”
She added that $68,000 is the “immediate level” to watch for if Bitcoin has support, with $65,800 being “the next meaningful support if that gives way.”
“To the upside, Bitcoin needs to reclaim $71,500 before any recovery narrative gains credibility,” Lucas said.
She added that Bitcoin still had strong institutional support, with $1.43 billion in net inflows to Bitcoin exchange-traded funds so far this month.
“When sentiment is this low and institutional infrastructure is this strong, history suggests the setup for recovery is building, even if the timing remains uncertain,” Lucas said.
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Barbara Fried and Joseph Bankman, the parents of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried, who was convicted after the exchange’s collapse, used their first televised interview to challenge the core premise of his conviction, arguing that no customer money was ultimately lost.
“The money was always there,” Bankman said during a weekend interview with CNN’s Michael Smerconish. “These were very profitable companies with billions of extra assets.”
The timing is not incidental. At the end of March, the FTX Recovery Trust is set to distribute about $2.2 billion in its fourth payout, bringing total recoveries to roughly $10 billion. Several U.S. customer classes will reach 100% recovery, with one class at 120%. For Bankman-Fried’s parents, those figures should mean SBF’s exoneration.
“Everybody has been made whole with 18 to 43 percent interest,” Fried said.
All distributions are denominated in U.S. dollars and are fixed to asset prices as of the November 2022 bankruptcy filing, when bitcoin traded near $16,800. FTX collapsed in late 2022, upending investor confidence and sparking a wave of regulatory scrutiny across the industry.
Bitcoin has been on a rollercoaster since then, shooting up to over $126,000 during the fall of 2025, and now trading around $69,000, way above the price in late 2022.
However, an FTX customer who held one bitcoin receives the dollar value of that 2022 claim, plus interest, not the asset or its current price. The estate is returning roughly 119% of a claim frozen at a fraction of today’s market value.
FTX creditor representative Sunil Kavuri has publicly rejected the framing, writing that “FTX creditors are not whole.”
FTX Bankruptcy recovery rates in real crypto terms
FTX creditors are not whole
9% to 46%: Real crypto terms recovery but probably in reality lower as crypto prices higher when 143% paid
Also seen on CT some:
1) Protect known scammers/liars/fraudsters
2) Attack those helping… pic.twitter.com/pUcjIPFsnv— Sunil (FTX Creditor Champion) (@sunil_trades) November 2, 2025
The parents’ defense also runs counter to the regulatory framework established in response to the collapse. Bankman described the transfer of customer funds to sister company Alameda Research as routine.
“They were borrowed by Alameda from FTX,” he said. “Alameda acted like everybody else, putting in money and borrowing money.”
If accepted, that argument would normalize the commingling of customer assets with a proprietary trading firm, the exact practice new rules in Hong Kong, the E.U., and proposed U.S. legislation now prohibit. The logic that exonerates Bankman-Fried is the same logic regulators moved to eliminate.
Fried went further, calling the prosecution “essentially political” and arguing the Biden administration “had decided to destroy crypto.”
The political framing reflects a broader clemency push toward President Donald Trump, as Bankman-Fried continues to support White House policy from prison via posts on X.
Smerconish noted that Judge Lewis Kaplan, who presided over SBF’s criminal trial and sentenced him to 25 years, is the same federal judge who oversaw E. Jean Carroll’s civil case against Trump, a point he said was “not lost on” the family.
Asked what she would say to Trump, Fried called her son “one of the most brilliant, talented young men of his generation” and said he would be “an enormous benefit to the economy” if freed.
But that door appears closed, at least for now.
Trump said in a January interview with the New York Times that he would not consider a pardon for Bankman-Fried even as Trump has granted clemency to other crypto figures, including Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht and former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao.
Polymarket bettors give it a 12% chance of happening.
Bankman-Fried’s appeal remains pending, and his motion for a new trial faces opposition from prosecutors who have dismissed his claims of political bias.
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