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Bitcoin (BTC) price, stocks rise as dollar weakens, oil falls: Crypto Daybook Americas

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CD20

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are holding firm alongside U.S. stock futures as oil prices, bond yields and the Dollar Index ease on signs that ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran could begin as early as Thursday.

Still, nothing is confirmed, and it may be too soon to position for a full return to normalcy, according to some observers.

“We are not geopolitical experts, but we would have thought Iran would have maximum leverage of high energy prices going into any negotiation,” analysts at ING said. “Thus, it is probably too early to expect any big drop in energy prices or a much softer dollar this week.”

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Skepticism remains on the Iranian side as well. According to Axios, officials have told Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey that recent U.S. military movements have deepened suspicions that Trump’s peace proposal may be just a ruse.

Macro conditions are also turning less supportive. The U.S. money market curve has now priced out any Fed easing this year, a sharp shift from earlier expectations of at least two 25-basis-point cuts, which were seen as a key bullish catalyst for BTC and other risk assets.

On the crypto front, the news flow hasn’t helped either. Circle Internet’s (CRCL) stock slid Tuesday after a leaked draft of the Clarity Act suggested limits on paying interest on idle stablecoin balances. Meanwhile, Arkham Intelligence reported that Bhutan may be selling roughly $30 million worth of BTC, with the government still holding 4,453 coins valued at about $315.9 million.

Despite these headwinds, bitcoin continues to hold above $70,000, with dips proving short-lived. A market that refuses to fall on negative news often signals underlying strength, potentially setting the stage for a larger move higher. Dynamics of bitcoin’s impending options expiry on Friday point to a potential for a bounce to $75,000. Stay alert!

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Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

  • Crypto
  • Macro
    • March 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Import Prices MoM for February est. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%); Export Prices MoM (Prev. 0.6%)
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

  • Governance votes & calls
  • Unlocks
    • March 25: Humanity (H) to unlock 4.19% of its circulating supply worth $10.1 million.
  • Token Launches

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

Market Movements

  • BTC is up 2.21% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $71,509.33 (24hrs: +0.68%)
  • ETH is up 2.99% at $2,184.78 (24hrs: +1.43%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 2.73% at 2,065.01 (24hrs: +0.93%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 7 bps at 2.74%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0005% (0.4960% annualized) on Binance
CD20
  • DXY is down 0.15% at 99.29
  • Gold futures are up 3.13% at $4,536.90
  • Silver futures are up 4.38% at $72.31
  • Nikkei 225 closed up 2.87% at 53,749.62
  • Hang Seng closed up 1.09% at 25,335.95
  • FTSE 100 is up 0.85% at 10,049.44
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.39% at 5,658.96
  • DJIA closed on Tuesday down 0.18% at 46,124.06
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.37% at 6,556.37
  • Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.84% at 21,761.89
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.18% at 31,941.59
  • S&P Latin America 40 closed up 0.43% at 3,480.97
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 6 bps at 4.39%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.68% at 6,651.25
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.86% at 24,422.75
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 0.67% at 46,727.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 58.97% (0.16%)
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03055 (-0.04%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 977 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $33.72
  • Total fees: 2.5 BTC / $175,777
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 116,345 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 15.7 oz.
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 4.77%

Technical Analysis

Daily swings in the bitcoin-gold ratio in candlestick format. (TradingView)
Bitcoin-gold ratio. (TradingView)
  • The chart shows daily swings in the bitcoin-gold ratio since July last year.
  • The ratio has bounced 23% this month, signaling bitcoin’s outperformance relative to gold.
  • However, the broader bitcoin bear market is still intact and the ratio had yet to top the trendline representing the slide since August 2025.

Crypto Equities

  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Tuesday at $181.04 (-9.76%), +2.94% at $186.36 in pre-market
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.25 (-7.41%), +3.52% at $8.54
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.33 (-0.28%), +2.72% at $14.72
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.85 (+1.63%), +2.43% at $17.26
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.58 (-4.01%), +2.61% at $9.83
  • Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD): closed at $7.20 (-11.33%), +6.39% at $7.66
  • CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $38.87 (-1.35%)
  • Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $101.17 (-20.11%), +3.04% at $104.25
  • Bullish (BLSH): closed at $37.37 (-5.51%), +1.61% at $37.97

Crypto Treasury Companies

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed at $136.25 (-1.41%), +2.97% at $140.29
  • Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.17 (-4.53%), +3.63% at $7.43
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.30 (-1.84%), +2.58% at $21.85
  • Strive Asset Management, LLC (ASST): closed at $9.93 (-4.89%), +2.01% at $10.13
  • Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.11 (-5.13%), +2.70% at $1.14
  • Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.20 (+1.69%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$66.6 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $56.31 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$40.7 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $11.7 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~5.79 million

Source: Farside Investors

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Bittensor Income Desert: Why $52M in Subsidies Mask a TAO Crypto Valuation Risk

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Bittensor Income Desert: Why $52M in Subsidies Mask a TAO Crypto Valuation Risk

Bittensor (TAO crypto) is currently priced on an annual subsidy of $52 million, not organic revenue.

The decentralized AI protocol incentivizes its subnet to emit 518 TAO daily to top performers like Chutes, masking a near-term liquidity crisis.

With a $1.37 billion subnet market cap and near-zero organic validator yield, the network faces a structural “Income Desert.”

The TAO halving effectively starts a timer on this valuation model. While the TAO price has recovered from its Q1 2026 lows to trade above $330, the disconnect between token incentives and actual utility is widening. If external revenue does not replace inflationary rewards before the miners bleed out, the math stops working.

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Key Takeaways:
  • Emission Dependency: Top subnets like Chutes receive $52 million in annualized subsidies while generating negligible external revenue.
  • Cost Inversion: Unsubsidized decentralized compute costs are roughly 1.6-3.5x higher than centralized competitors like Deepseek.
  • Valuation Gap: The network supports a $1.37 billion subnet market cap despite the bulk of validator yield coming from inflation rather than customers.

Tao Crypto Data Deep Dive: The Emission Problem

Subnets are currently paid to exist, not to serve. Chutes (SN64), a top-performing subnet, captures approximately 14.4% of total network emissions. That equals roughly 518 TAO per day. At current market prices, this serves as a $52 million annual operational subsidy shared among miners and validators.

Without this subsidy, the economics invert immediately. Pine Analytics data indicates that unsubsidized inference on Chutes would cost 1.6x to 3.5x as much as centralized competitors like Deepseek or TogetherAI.

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The protocol acts as a heavy subsidizer of compute, creating a cost advantage that is artificial rather than structural. When the emissions stop covering the spread, the user value proposition evaporates. This mirrors the structural inefficiencies seen in legacy market infrastructure, where capital gets trapped in systems that do not generate velocity.

The Halving Catalyst: Why the Clock is Ticking

The TAO halving in December 2025 slashed daily emissions from 7,200 to 3,600 TAO. The buffer is gone. Miners previously relying on fat block rewards now fight for a shrinking pie, making the “Income Desert” a solvency issue rather than just a theoretical concern.

This scarcity mechanism is designed to support the price, but it stress-tests the business model. If organic revenue does not scale to replace the lost 3,600 TAO per day, miners operate at a loss. Much like the sustainability challenges that forced Balancer Labs to restructure, Bittensor’s subnets cannot run indefinitely on a deficit. The halving exposes which subnets are businesses and which are zombie chains feeding on inflation.

The Valuation Gap: What the $1.37B Subnet Market Cap Actually Reflects

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The market currently values Bittensor’s subnets at roughly $1.37 billion. This figure implies a massive growth multiple based on future Crypto AI adoption, as current organic cash flows are near zero. The discrepancy is stark.

Investors are paying a premium for infrastructure that is currently less efficient than centralized alternatives. In a Proof-of-Work style system like Bittensor, the valuation must eventually be backed by miner revenue.

If the price of TAO drops or the cost-to-serve remains high, the security budget collapses. The current price of $332 assumes a seamless transition from subsidized growth to organic profitability. The data does not yet support that assumption.

The post Bittensor Income Desert: Why $52M in Subsidies Mask a TAO Crypto Valuation Risk appeared first on Cryptonews.

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CIFR shares rise on new Hyperscaler agreement

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Core Scientific turns lower after Q4 results disappoint

Cipher Digital (CIFR) shares jumped 9% in pre-market trading after the company, formerly a bitcoin miner, announced a new long-term data center lease and said it secured a $200 million revolving credit facility.

The company revealed a 15-year lease agreement with an investment-grade hyperscale tenant for its third data center campus. Cipher will develop and deliver a high-performance computing facility at an existing site, strengthening its position as a partner to large technology firms building AI infrastructure.

Cipher also announced a revolving credit facility of up to $200 million, with an additional $50 million accordion option. Backed by a syndicate of leading global banks, the facility provides non-dilutive capital to support expansion, boost liquidity, and fund future growth initiatives.

Cipher Digital, formerly known as Cipher Mining, has rebranded to reflect a strategic pivot away from bitcoin production toward the development of industrial-scale data centers for AI and cloud workloads. The move aligns the company with the rapidly growing demand for high-performance computing capacity.

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Circle (CRCL) Plummets 20% as Clarity Act Draft Targets Stablecoin Yields

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CRCL Stock Card

Key Takeaways

  • Shares of Circle Internet Group (CRCL) plunged approximately 20% on Tuesday following reports of draft legislation that would prohibit yield payments on stablecoin holdings
  • Coinbase (COIN), which partners with Circle on USDC distribution, declined 9.1% amid the same regulatory concerns
  • The draft provision within the Clarity Act aims to restrict yield payments offered “directly or indirectly” on stablecoins that function like interest-bearing deposits
  • Company insider Nikhil Chandhok offloaded 10,000 shares on March 23 at $123.08 per share, totaling $1.23 million, just before the stock tumbled
  • Circle’s fourth-quarter financial performance exceeded expectations with earnings per share of $0.43 versus the anticipated $0.25, while revenues surged 76.9% compared to the previous year

Shares of Circle Internet Group (CRCL) experienced a dramatic decline on Tuesday following revelations that proposed legislative language in the Clarity Act could eliminate the ability for platforms to provide yield on stablecoin deposits. The stock tumbled roughly 20% during trading, with Wednesday’s opening price settling at $101.90.


CRCL Stock Card
Circle Internet Group, CRCL

According to correspondence from the Blockchain Association distributed to its membership and subsequently examined by Barron’s, the proposed provision would prevent platforms from compensating investors—whether through direct or indirect means—simply for maintaining stablecoin balances in arrangements that mirror traditional interest-bearing bank accounts.

Circle serves as the creator of USDC, which ranks as the second-most widely circulated stablecoin globally. Income generated from USDC reserve assets, predominantly invested in U.S. Treasury securities and reverse repo agreements, is distributed between Circle and its distribution ally, Coinbase.

[[LINK_START_2]]Coinbase (COIN)[[LINK_END_2]] experienced a 9.1% decline on the identical trading day. The exchange presently provides users with a 3.5% annual percentage yield on USDC balances—an offering that would face elimination under the contemplated regulatory framework.

The negotiated provision, developed with contributions from White House officials and Senators Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) and Thom Tillis (R-NC), underwent review by banking institutions and cryptocurrency companies throughout Monday and Tuesday. While activity-driven rewards and customer loyalty initiatives would remain permissible under the draft text, the Blockchain Association indicated it was pursuing additional clarification regarding acceptable programs.

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The legislation has been under development for multiple years. Its primary objective involves establishing regulatory clarity for digital assets within the United States and providing exemptions from securities regulations for most cryptocurrency transactions. The stablecoin yield controversy has emerged as among several contentious elements.

Traditional banking industry representatives have consistently opposed stablecoin yield offerings, contending that such products divert customer deposits from conventional financial institutions, which generally provide lower interest rates.

Coinbase Leadership Previously Withdrew Endorsement

Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, had previously retracted his backing for the Clarity Act when an earlier iteration of the yield prohibition came to light. The current compromise represents an effort to bridge the divide between banking sector advocacy and cryptocurrency industry interests.

Beyond the yield question, the legislation confronts additional obstacles. Democratic lawmakers have advocated for provisions preventing President Trump and his relatives from generating profits through cryptocurrency holdings. Republican members have predominantly resisted such additions. These negotiations remain suspended pending resolution of the yield controversy.

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The legislative calendar presents another challenge. Congressional members express concern that the measure may not secure passage through both legislative chambers before midterm election campaigns intensify.

Executive Stock Transaction and Market Analyst Perspectives

The stock decline occurred mere days following an insider transaction. Nikhil Chandhok disposed of 10,000 CRCL shares on March 23 at an average price of $123.08, generating proceeds of $1.23 million. This marked his second divestiture in recent months—he had previously sold 20,000 shares in late February at $90.00 per share.

Notwithstanding the market turbulence, Circle’s recent financial metrics demonstrated strength. The organization disclosed fourth-quarter earnings per share of $0.43, substantially exceeding the consensus forecast of $0.25, accompanied by revenue of $770.23 million—representing a 76.9% year-over-year increase.

Wall Street analyst projections vary considerably. Wells Fargo reduced its price objective from $128 to $111 while maintaining an “overweight” recommendation. Robert W. Baird maintains an “outperform” rating with a $138 price target. MarketBeat’s aggregated consensus reflects a “Hold” rating with an average target price of $126.29.

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CRCL has traded within a 52-week range spanning from $49.90 to $298.99.

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STS Digital unveils structured crypto platform, brings in Kraken as distribution partner

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Bitcoin's volatility spikes to its highest since FTX's collapse as prices crater to nearly $60,000

STS Digital, a trading firm specializing in crypto options, unveiled a structured-products platform aimed at sophisticated investors as digital assets gain growing acceptance among traditional financial institutions.

One month after raising $30 million, the Bermuda-based company said the platform, which covers 400 tokens, is aimed at banks, family offices, and high-net-worth individuals seeking returns on top of their spot-market holdings. Kraken, the crypto exchange whose parent, Payward, took part in the fundraising, will offer the platform to its partners, STS Digital said in a statement shared with CoinDesk.

Crypto structured products are seeing rising demand as venture funds, portfolio managers and large mandate holders look for more tailored hedging solutions. Standard leveraged products like futures and perpetuals, with their one-size-fits-all design, often fall short, especially due to path dependency.

Structured products typically embed options that help navigate volatility and generate additional income on top of spot market holdings. Open interest is currently around $47 billion, according to TheTie, with the lion’s share on Deribit.

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For Kraken, the partnership is also about deepening its bench of products. According to the release, the exchange is leveraging STS’ derivatives expertise to power its Dual Investment product, introduced earlier this month, to allow eligible clients to earn fixed returns on bitcoin and ether (ETH).

The agreement brings “structured strategies like covered calls to our platform, strengthens our growing suite of derivatives solutions and gives clients a new way to generate return that’s distinct from traditional crypto approaches like staking or lending,” Alexia Theodorou, director of derivatives at Kraken, said in the statement.

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Australia eyes AU$24B gain as RBA pushes tokenization in markets

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Australia eyes AU$24B gain as RBA pushes tokenization in markets

The Reserve Bank of Australia said tokenization could bring AU$24 billion in yearly efficiency gains to the national economy. 

Summary

  • RBA said tokenization could add AU$24 billion yearly and is now moving toward practical rollout.
  • Project Acacia tested bonds, repos, funds, and four settlement options across Australia’s wholesale finance markets.
  • Stablecoins may suit smaller markets while deposit tokens could support larger regulated activity across Australia.

Meanwhile, the central bank used findings from Project Acacia to show that tokenized assets and tokenized money are moving closer to practical use in wholesale finance. It said the next stage will focus on implementation, industry coordination, and market testing.

Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Brad Jones said the central bank now sees tokenization as a question of “how” rather than “if.” He made the remarks while presenting findings from Project Acacia, which reviewed how tokenized assets and money could work in Australia’s wholesale financial system.

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Jones said research from the Digital Finance Cooperative Research Centre estimated that tokenization could deliver AU$24 billion in annual efficiency gains. He also said the benefits could grow further if the technology supports the creation of new markets and services.

Project Acacia reviewed 20 use cases tied to tokenized assets, including government bonds, corporate bonds, repos, and investment funds. The project also tested settlement using four types of money, namely wholesale central bank digital currency, exchange settlement account balances, stablecoins, and bank deposit tokens.

The results showed that different forms of tokenized money may serve different roles. Jones said stablecoins could support smaller and newer tokenized markets, while bank deposit tokens may suit larger markets because banks already operate under prudential rules and have access to central bank liquidity facilities.

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Moreover, Jones said stablecoins and bank deposit tokens could work in complementary ways rather than compete directly. This approach reflects the RBA’s current view that different tokenized payment tools may fit different parts of the wholesale market.

He also said market participants viewed a wholesale CBDC as “potentially helpful, but far from essential” for tokenized markets to develop. He pointed to the United States, where tokenized repo markets are already recording daily activity close to $400 billion without depending on a wholesale CBDC.

Sandbox and advisory groups set next steps

The RBA said it will work with the Council of Financial Regulators, the DFCRC, and industry participants on a set of new initiatives. A digital financial market infrastructure sandbox will provide a stage-gated setting for testing tokenized assets, money, and settlement systems.

The central bank will also review exchange settlement account access rules after payment service provider licensing reforms pass parliament. In addition, regulators and industry members will form a joint tokenisation advisory group, while an expanded Deposit Token Working Group will focus on interoperability between deposit tokens issued by different banks.

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Monument Bank to tokenize 250 million pounds of retail deposits in UK first

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Monument Bank to tokenize 250 million pounds of retail deposits in UK first

Monument Bank said it plans to tokenise up to 250 million pounds ($335 million) of retail customer deposits on the Midnight network in what it described as the first such move by a U.K.-regulated bank on a public blockchain.

The London-based challenger bank said the deposits will remain interest-bearing, fully backed by Monument and redeemable one-for-one in pounds sterling. They will also remain covered by the U.K.’s Financial Services Compensation Scheme.

The move marks is a step in the push to bring tokenized financial products into regulated banking. While banks in the U.K. and elsewhere have explored tokenized deposits, most work to date has focused on institutional use or closed networks.

Monument is pitching this effort at retail customers, starting with clients with investable assets between 50,000 pounds and 5 million pounds, the so-called mass-affluent, according to asset manager St. James’s Place.

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Monument, which says it has more than 100,000 customers and about 7 billion pounds in deposits, said the first phase will mirror savings balances on Midnight’s privacy-focused blockchain.

Later phases are meant to add tokenized investment products such as private market and commodity funds, followed by lending against those holdings inside the Monument app.

Midnight Foundation, which was developed by Shielded Technologies, a company linked to Cardano creator Input Output, is providing the blockchain infrastructure.

Monument said the system is designed so transaction data remains visible only to the bank and its customers, while operating within existing U.K. banking protections and compliance rules.

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The announcement also points to a wider play. Monument said affiliate Monument Technology plans to offer tokenized deposit functionality through its Banking-as-a-Service platform. That could allow other institutions to adopt the same model.

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Bitcoin Rebounds 4% on Iran Ceasefire Hopes but Faces $72K Resistance

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Bitcoin Rebounds 4% on Iran Ceasefire Hopes but Faces $72K Resistance

Bitcoin (BTC) rose back above $71,000 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday after Trump’s administration offered a 15-point plan to Iran to end the war, sparking short-term optimism across risk assets.

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin bounces 4% to $71,500 after President Trump sent Iran a 15-point proposal aimed at ending the war. 

  • Bitcoin faces stiff resistance above $72,000. 

Bitcoin jumps 4% on ceasefire hopes

Data from TradingView showed BTC price rose as much as 4% to an intraday high of $71,300 from Tuesday’s low of $68,890, recouping all the losses incurred the day prior.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The price reacted to news that the US, through the primary intermediary Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir (Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff), has sent Iran a 15-point plan aimed at ending the war.

The key elements of the plan include: a temporary ceasefire with calls on Iran to dismantle or severely limit its nuclear program, suspend its ballistic-missile work, and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for safe maritime traffic.

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Source: X/The Kobeissi Letter

Meanwhile, Iran continues to deny any ongoing talks as ​​Trump delayed his self-imposed deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Following the news, WTI crude oil dropped 5.75% to $87 per barrel, while Brent crude shed 6% to trade at $98.

Oil prices table. Source: Oil Price.com

Gold extended yesterday’s gains, now up 2.53% on the day to trade at $4,561 at the time of writing.

This move eases inflation fears tied to disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, positively impacting risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Analysts noted the swift repricing, with Coinlore saying that Bitcoin is now acting as a “real-time sentiment instrument for global risk.”

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr said that BTC will “likely remain headline-driven” until the US and Iran send a “public de-escalation signal.”

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Bitcoin price faces “rough times ahead”

Despite the rebound, BTC’s upside appears to be capped at $72,000, where the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the upper trend line of a symmetrical triangle converge.

A break above $72,000 would confirm a bullish breakout from the triangle, toward the measured target at $92,400, 30% above the current price.

BTC/USD daily chart. Cointelegraph/TradingView

Glassnode’s cost-basis distribution heatmap reveals concentrated supply and resistance between $72,000 and $74,000, where investors acquired roughly 380,000 BTC over the last 30 days. This indicates that sellers could aggressively defend this zone.

Bitcoin cost basis distribution heatmap. Source: Glassnode

On the downside, a dense accumulation cluster sits around $65,000, where investors previously acquired 160,000 BTC. 

This level coincides with the lower trend line of the symmetrical triangle, which, if lost, could trigger the next leg lower toward the bearish target of the triangle at $52,500.

Meanwhile, Capriole Investment’s Bitcoin Macro index has dropped to -1.37, levels seen at the depth of previous bear cycles.

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The chart below shows that the metric historically spends a year at or below these valuations before recovering.

“Bitcoin Macro index is in the value zone,” Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards said in an X post on Wednesday, adding:

“In all prior instances, price went lower into deeper value first before recovering, suggesting we may have more rough times ahead first.”

Bitcoin Macro Index. Source: Capriole Investments

As Cointelegraph reported, traders warn of a second bear flag breakdown that could clear the path for another sell-off below $50,000.