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Bitcoin Buyer Activity Returns as February Selling Pressure Fades on Binance and Coinbase

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Bitcoin 30-day volume delta on Binance flipped from -$145M in February to a positive +$21M today.
  • Coinbase volume delta recovered from -$88M to +$14M, marking a shift away from February’s sell-side dominance.
  • The Fed’s upcoming FOMC meeting carries a 99% chance of no rate change, with forward guidance as the main focus.
  • Crypto market liquidity remains thin, meaning sustained buyer volume is still needed to confirm a breakout move.

Bitcoin is showing renewed buyer interest following a prolonged period of heavy selling pressure in February. Volume data from Binance and Coinbase reflects a gradual but measurable shift back toward buyers.

This change arrives amid escalating geopolitical tensions and a closely watched Federal Reserve meeting. Market probabilities currently point to a 99% chance of no rate change at the upcoming FOMC gathering. Risk assets broadly remain under pressure across global financial markets.

Volume Delta Recovers on Major Crypto Exchanges

Crypto analyst Darkfost recently flagged a notable change in volume dynamics across major trading platforms. In a post on X, Darkfost noted that on February 16, the 30-day moving average volume delta on Binance stood at a deeply negative -$145M.

Coinbase recorded a similar reading of -$88M during that same period. Sellers dominated both exchanges with clear conviction at the time.

Both retail and institutional participants were aligned on the sell side throughout most of February. That shared positioning reflected a broader risk-off tone sweeping through financial markets at the time.

Equities and commodities also exhibited toppish market structures during this stretch. Selling pressure across multiple asset classes was broadly coordinated.

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As of now, those same averages have moved back into positive territory on both platforms. Binance currently shows approximately +$21M, while Coinbase registers around +$14M in buyer-side volume.

The recovery remains modest but represents a clear departure from prior conditions. It marks the first meaningful reversal of February’s dominant sell-side trend.

Bitcoin’s relative resilience during this period adds further context to the volume shift. Unlike equities and commodities, it held up comparatively well despite mounting macro pressures.

That outperformance continues to draw attention from market watchers and experienced traders. The asset attracted renewed buyer interest even within an unfavorable risk environment.

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FOMC Guidance and Thin Liquidity Shape the Path Forward

The Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting presents another layer of uncertainty for risk asset markets. Current probabilities place the likelihood of no rate change at roughly 99%.

Traders are therefore shifting attention away from the decision itself toward forward guidance. Any indication of future rate hikes could weigh heavily on broader market sentiment.

If the Fed reintroduces rate hike language, it would likely dampen risk appetite across financial markets. Bitcoin, as a risk-sensitive asset, would not be entirely shielded from such a development.

The tone of forward guidance carries more weight than the rate decision itself this cycle. Market participants will scrutinize every statement from Fed officials very closely.

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Liquidity across the crypto market remains relatively thin at this point. That thinness creates conditions where price moves can become more exaggerated in either direction.

A sustained increase in buyer volume would be necessary to support any convincing upside breakout. The current improvement in volume delta has not yet reached that confirmation threshold.

That said, the trajectory of buyer activity is moving in the right direction for Bitcoin. As Darkfost noted, continued momentum in buying volumes could gradually support price action.

A breakout from the current trading range would require this trend to hold and deepen further. Market participants will be watching volume data closely over the sessions ahead.

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Crypto World

EUR/USD Chart Analysis: Pair Recovers Ahead of Fed News

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EUR/USD Chart Analysis: Pair Recovers Ahead of Fed News

On 10 March, analysing the EUR/USD chart, we:
→ considered the long-term descending channel, which remains relevant;
→ noted that the sequence of lower lows A–H was broken with the appearance of a higher peak I, with 1.1680 potentially acting as resistance.

At peak I, bulls exhausted their strength: after forming a consolidation zone near the channel’s median, bears regained control and pushed the price to a new yearly low, driven by a bearish fundamental backdrop.

Tomorrow, the Fed is expected to release its interest rate decision, while the ECB will issue comments the day after. These events could significantly shift market sentiment regarding EUR/USD, and current price behaviour suggests that bulls may attempt a comeback.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD

Note the following:

→ The descending trendline from last week has been breached; the market is holding above the breakout level around 1.14560.

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→ The pair is recovering from oversold territory just below the lower boundary of the channel. The psychological level 1.1500 may provide support.

Thus, traders should consider the scenario in which EUR/USD’s strong movement on Monday–Tuesday is confirmed by upcoming central bank news.

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Bitcoin Bulls Risk Getting Trapped at Six-Week Highs

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Bitcoin Bulls Risk Getting Trapped at Six-Week Highs

Bitcoin (BTC) risks turning its rebound into a classic “bull trap” as the price rejects at strong resistance.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin faces flat Coinbase spot demand and an open interest divergence as prices rise above $75,000.

  • This risks ending the rebound due to structural weakness, analysis warns.

  • Any push higher toward $80,000 will be “challenging.”

BTC market lacks “spot buying support”

New research from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant released on Tuesday warns that the recent BTC price rebound may collapse.

“The Bitcoin market is currently exposing a critical structural vulnerability as it transitions from a healthy spot-led regime to an overheated rally driven primarily by derivatives,” contributor Easy On Chain wrote in a QuickTake blog post.

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Several factors support the theory, including the Coinbase Premium Index — the difference in price between Coinbase’s BTC/USD and Binance’s BTC/USDT pairs. 

Despite BTC/USD hitting six-week highs, the index continues to dip into negative territory, pointing to a lack of US spot demand.

“In this absence of spot-buying support, we are witnessing an extreme decoupling between investor cohorts where smart money is tactically distributing its supply,” Easy On Chain continued.

Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuant

Fellow CryptoQuant contributor MAC_D agreed, drawing a clear distinction between old and new investors.

“Recent on-chain data shows that OG investors are distributing, while new investors are entering the market, indicating a clear transfer of ownership,” they wrote in a separate Quicktake post.

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The core issue, however, is with open interest (OI), which shows the market in a precarious situation.

“On the 1-hour timeframe, a divergence between price and open interest is emerging. While the spot market shows strength, futures traders appear reluctant to take on additional risk,” MAC_D continued. 

“If this lack of bullish positioning in the futures market continues, the current move could turn into a bull trap.”

Bitcoin OI chart. Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin price upside will be “challenging”

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin faces a wall of selling pressure in the mid-$70,000 zone, which coincides with old local lows from April 2025.

Related: $58K BTC price still in play? Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

Data from CoinGlass shows price stalling midway through that ask-liquidity at $76,000 before reversing.

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BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass

Market participants thus remain level-headed when it comes to a broader market recovery. 

In his latest X analysis, Keith Alan, cofounder of trading resource Material Indicators, referenced various moving average (MA) trend lines and proprietary trading tools to put the odds of a full bull-market comeback in context.

“Bulls are currently attempting to flip resistance at the Q2 2024 Timescape Level, and now psychological resistance at $75k is coming into focus. If bulls can push higher the next targets are at the Q2 2025 Timescape Levels at $78.3k and $82.5k,” he explained.

“The confluence between the moving averages, Timescapes Levels and the structure add strength to those levels, and there is a lot of ask liquidity laddered between here and there that will make that move challenging.”

BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Keith Alan/X

Trader Mister Crypto, meanwhile, drew comparisons between current price action and that from earlier in 2026, where BTC/USD offered a relief bounce before breaking below support.