• Katana (KAT) gains momentum from Upbit and Bithumb listings with KRW pairs.
• Katana Perps launch adds derivatives and deeper market utility.
• Traders should watch the support at $0.014 and the immediate resistance at $0.016.

Katana (KAT), the native token of the Katana Network, has seen an extraordinary 53% price surge today, largely fueled by major cryptocurrency exchange listings.

Upbit and Bithumb, two of South Korea’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, have added KAT, opening up direct KRW trading pairs for the token.

These listings have given Katana greater visibility in a market known for active retail participation.

South Korean investors often respond quickly to new token listings, and the addition of KRW trading pairs makes it easy for traders to engage with KAT.

This kind of exposure can amplify buying pressure and lead to sharp price moves, especially when combined with already strong market momentum.

The recent surge has also coincided with extremely high trading volumes.

KAT’s daily turnover has been several times its earlier average, signalling strong interest from traders and speculators.

Sustained volume is crucial for maintaining momentum. If volume remains high, KAT is likely to continue testing local highs.

Conversely, a sudden drop in trading activity could lead to sharp pullbacks.

Adding to the bullish narrative, Katana recently acquired IDEX to launch a native perpetual futures platform called Katana Perps.

By integrating derivatives trading directly into the ecosystem, Katana can capture more trading activity within its own network.

This move also brings professional liquidity providers and market makers into the token’s orbit, creating a more stable and deeper market.

Technical outlook

Overall, KAT is in a high-momentum phase driven by both exchange listings and real product development.

From a technical analysis perspective, KAT is currently hovering near its recent local high, and the immediate support level to watch is $0.014.

Holding above this level would suggest that bullish momentum remains intact and could pave the way for a retest of the local high around $0.016.

But if this support fails, traders should anticipate a move toward the next key support near $0.012.

Volume remains a crucial indicator in this environment.

Sustained daily volume above $100 million would confirm strong trader interest and reduce the likelihood of a sudden correction.

On the other hand, if volume drops below $50 million, it could signal that momentum is fading and that a pullback may be imminent.

The combination of exchange listings, high trading volumes, and a new derivatives platform provides KAT with both momentum and structural growth potential.

However, traders should be aware that these factors create opportunities but also increase the risk of sharp swings if interest wanes.

Bitcoin Slips as Geopolitical Signals Shift

• Bitcoin drops 1% as Trump signals faster end to US-Iran conflict timeline
• BTC trades near $70,700 while volatility rises amid geopolitical shifts
• Oil prices climb, offsetting crypto gains as tensions remain unresolved
• Iran rejects ceasefire terms, adding pressure to global financial markets
• Crypto derivatives show weakening momentum ahead of major options expiry

Bitcoin declined 1% during early Thursday trading, reflecting uncertainty from evolving geopolitical developments. The asset traded at $70,712, showing limited momentum within a narrow daily range. Meanwhile, traders reacted to reports of a potential shift in US foreign policy direction.

The US administration signaled an intention to shorten the ongoing conflict with Iran. This stance introduced mixed expectations across financial markets and increased short-term volatility. As a result, Bitcoin failed to sustain earlier gains despite recent bullish projections.

At the same time, trading volumes remained subdued, indicating weaker participation in the current market phase. Market activity reflected hesitation, especially as external risks continued to dominate sentiment. Consequently, Bitcoin moved sideways with a slight downward bias.

Oil Prices Rise as Conflict Dynamics Evolve

Oil prices moved higher as geopolitical tensions continued to influence supply expectations. The upward movement erased some gains previously seen in risk assets like cryptocurrencies. This shift highlighted the inverse reaction between commodities and digital assets.

Reports indicated that the US aimed to conclude the conflict within a defined timeframe. However, Iran rejected proposed ceasefire conditions and introduced its own demands. These developments prolonged uncertainty and supported oil price strength.

Additionally, the proposed conditions included sanctions removal and expanded regional control measures. Such demands complicated negotiations and extended the timeline for resolution. Therefore, energy markets maintained upward pressure amid unresolved tensions.

Derivatives Market Signals Weakening Momentum

Bitcoin derivatives data showed declining open interest over recent hours, signaling reduced market conviction. This drop aligned with broader uncertainty across financial markets. As a result, traders adjusted positions ahead of key expiry events.

Options data indicated that over $16 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum contracts approach expiration. This large volume created expectations of heightened volatility in the near term. Consequently, short-term price movements remained sensitive to external triggers.

Meanwhile, projections from institutional analysts suggested a potential long-term upside for Bitcoin. However, current market behavior reflected caution due to geopolitical risks. Therefore, near-term sentiment remained mixed despite optimistic forecasts.

🚨 BITCOIN HAS JUST DROPPED BELOW $70,000

INSTITUTIONS HAVE STARTED SELLING, AND MOMENTUM IS FADING.

IF BITCOIN LOSES THE $69,000-$70,000 RANGE, THE DOWNTREND WILL SHARPLY ACCELERATE. 📉 pic.twitter.com/lWrwFCt3tC

— That Martini Guy ₿ (@MartiniGuyYT) March 26, 2026

Background and Broader Context

The US administration aimed to balance foreign policy priorities with domestic agendas. Reports indicated a focus on upcoming elections and legislative initiatives. This shift influenced decisions related to the conflict timeline.

At the same time, global markets responded quickly to any signals of escalation or de-escalation. Digital assets, commodities, and equities showed increased correlation during this period. As a result, geopolitical developments continued to shape market direction.

Overall, the situation remained fluid, with negotiations still uncertain and conditions unresolved. Market participants reacted to each update, causing frequent price adjustments. Consequently, volatility persisted across both traditional and digital asset classes.

Bitcoin (BTC) faces a new macro test as markets increasingly bet on the US entering recession in 2026.

Key points:

• Bitcoin could face a new challenge in the form of its first recession after the COVID-19 crash.

• US recession odds surge as BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warns over oil prices.

• Bitcoin’s high correlation with “extremely oversold” stocks continues.

Moody’s puts 12-month recession odds near 50%

Data highlighted this week by Axel Adler Jr., a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, shows recession odds nearing 50%.

Bitcoin’s next bull run could come courtesy of a US economic downturn, and market participants see the latter as more and more likely this year.

“Moody’s Analytics raised the probability of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months to 48.6%, while Goldman Sachs increased its estimate to 30%,” Adler noted on X.

Prediction traders agree, with US recession odds reaching 36% on Kalshi — the highest reading since September 2025.

The US-Iran war and its impact on global oil prices lie at the heart of the surge. Recent claims by both sides about dialogue to end hostilities and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz have caused confusion throughout risk-asset markets.

“That’s keeping upside pressure on oil prices, which is recently crossing a key threshold historically associated with recession,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company commented in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”

Mosaic said that oil jumping 50% above its long-term trend, a phenomenon now playing out, “has been seen before or during nearly every recession over the past 50 years.”

“Oil prices are directly correlated to headline inflation, where a $10 increase per barrel can push inflation higher by 0.20% or more,” it added.

Major players echo those concerns, including Larry Fink, CEO of the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock.

“We’ll have a global recession,” he told the BBC this week about the consequences of Iran staying a “threat” to the global economy, even if the war itself ended.

Bitcoin stays tied to “extremely oversold” stocks

Bitcoin has had little experience of recession in its lifespan of less than 20 years.

Related: Gold slides as traders eye sub-$50K BTC: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

In 2020, a US recession from February to April preceded a period of major BTC price upside after BTC/USD initially joined risk assets in a global crash in March.

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s correlation to US stocks has become stronger this year, potentially increasing the potential for a relief bounce.

“While the uncertainty over inflation and the outlook for monetary are broadly weighing across the market, conditions are very favorable to see at least a short-term rally unfold,” Mosaic commented. 

“Various measures of investor sentiment and positioning are pointing to excessive bearishness in the market while breadth metrics are extending to extremely oversold levels.”