Crypto World
Bitcoin Dips to 2026 Low as Altcoins Crumble: Is BTC at $56K Next?
Key points:
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Bitcoin remains under pressure as the bears attempt to hold the price below the crucial $74,508 level.
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Several major altcoins are struggling to bounce off their support levels, increasing the likelihood of the resumption of the downtrend.
Bitcoin (BTC) (CRYPTO: BTC) is facing renewed selling pressure after bulls pressed for a recovery but failed to sustain gains, with the price slipping beneath the key mark of $72,169. In a Monday note, Galaxy Digital research lead Alex Thorn warned that BTC could slip toward its realized price near $56,000 in the coming weeks, citing a lack of catalysts capable of reversing the trend. The absence of strong on-chain or macro catalysts has kept buyers on the defensive, and the market has yet to demonstrate a convincing bid at higher levels.
Not everyone is certain the bottom is in. On X, Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan argued that the crypto markets are likely to rebound sooner rather than later, signaling that the longer-term setup could still tilt toward a renewed rally even as near-term momentum remains fragile. The disagreement among market voices highlights a broader question: are macro conditions enough to spark a durable relief rally, or will the market continue to test major support zones?
In the near term, a classical pattern is reemerging: BTC’s recovery could take time, with some observers noting a historical tendency for extended periods below the 100-week simple moving average. A noted commentator recently recalled that when BTC breaks below the 100-week SMA, it has stayed under that threshold for many months in prior cycles, with the COVID-19 shock offering a rare exception where BTC rose above the level within weeks. The question for traders remains whether this time will echo the longer baselines or deliver a quicker bounce spurred by renewed risk appetite. The gravity of the current setup is underscored by the fact that several top altcoins are testing notable supports, increasing the risk of a broader downturn if those levels give way.
Looking at the price architecture: BTC’s next crucial defense is at the $74,508 support, but buyers have struggled to hold above that level, and the price has hovered around the $72,000s region. If selling accelerates and BTC breaks decisively below $72,945, the path toward the next meaningful support near $60,000 could open, potentially inviting a broader re-pricing across the leading cryptos. The relative strength index (RSI) sits deep in oversold territory, suggesting that a relief rally could materialize if near-term selling pressure eases and buyers reclaim the vicinity of $79,500. A sustained move above the $79,500 resistance could re-energize momentum toward $84,000, though bulls still face a challenging environment amid ongoing risk-off sentiment in broader markets.
Bitcoin price prediction
Bitcoin’s trajectory hinges on how price behaves around the critical $74,508 support and the subsequent $72,945 region. A breach below those levels would likely intensify selling pressure and could revive a test of the $60,000 zone. Conversely, a rally through $79,500 and then $84,000 would lend credence to a relief rebound, potentially drawing momentum into the broader market. The current configuration remains tricky for bulls, with the macro backdrop and ongoing competition among risk assets keeping upside attempts cautious.
Ether (ETH) entered Tuesday defending a critical level near $2,111, but the bounce remained shallow, signaling a lack of aggressive buying support from bulls. If selling pressure resumes and the price breaks below the $2,111 mark, the ETH/USDT pair could slide toward $1,750. The RSI’s oversold condition hints at a potential short-term relief rally, yet confirmation is needed through a move above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at around $2,467 and the 20-day exponential moving average near $2,712. A daily close above the 20-day EMA would be a constructive sign for bulls, indicating a shift in near-term momentum.
BNB (BNB) continues to trade below the $790 level, keeping the risk of a sharper dip intact should bears reclaim momentum. A close below $730 would mark a shift in control, potentially driving the pair toward $700 and then to the $645 area. Bulls, meanwhile, will need to sustain a move above the $790 resistance and push toward the 20-day EMA around $839 to reassert control over the immediate path. The clock is ticking for the buyers, with the market closely watching for a sustained rebound that could anchor a broader recovery in the altcoin complex.
XRP (XRP) has struggled to sustain a break above the $1.61 threshold, a sign that bears are actively selling on relief rallies. A downside break from the descending channel could bring the token back toward the $1.25 region. To preserve a more constructive count, bulls would need to push above the moving averages and, ideally, above the downtrend line to keep the channel intact and hint at a longer-lasting shift in trend.
Solana (SOL) has faced renewed selling pressure after failing to clear the $107 resistance. A close below $95 would likely mark the continuation of the downtrend toward the next major support around $79, with the potential for further weakness if bears dominate the short-term action. A breakout above $107 could reframe the near-term outlook, steering the pair toward the 20-day EMA near $117, where selling pressure may re-emerge as bears attempt to reassert control.
Dogecoin (DOGE) is attempting a relief move, but the bounce has been shallow, implying ongoing pressure from sellers. A relapse below the $0.10 level could drag DOGE down toward $0.08, while a move above the 20-day EMA around $0.12 could open a path toward $0.16 if buyers gain traction. The market’s reaction to the current level will help determine whether DOGE is merely testing a bear wall or laying the groundwork for a more sustained reversal.
Cardano (ADA) is trying to bounce off the descending channel’s support, but the relief rally lacks strength. A turn down from the current level or the 20-day EMA near $0.33 would signal that the bears retain the upper hand and could push ADA toward the next major support around $0.20. Conversely, a decisive move above the 20-day EMA would keep ADA within the channel and could set up a test of the downtrend line, with a potential rally toward the $0.50 area if buyers reclaim control.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has mounted a stubborn resistance near the 50% retracement around $535, keeping the path to higher levels contested. If bears push BCH below $497, the downside could accelerate toward $467 and then $443. Conversely, a sustained move above $544 could draw buyers toward the 20-day EMA around $562, with a test of the $604 level possible if momentum shifts decisively in favor of bulls.
Hyperliquid (HYPE) breached the $35.50 resistance on Tuesday, but a long wick on the candlestick suggests selling at higher levels remains a headwind. If buyers partner with the current setup, a break above $35.50 could push HYPE toward $44, hinting that the corrective phase may be ending. However, a swift move below the 20-day EMA near $28.79 could keep the pair oscillating between $35.50 and $20.82 for an extended period.
Monero (XMR) is attempting to establish a footing around the $360 level, but relief rallies remain vulnerable to selling at $412 and the 20-day EMA near $461. A move lower would place the next support near $360, while a sustained push above the 20-day EMA could invite a test toward $500, where selling pressure historically intensifies. After sharp declines, price action tends to consolidate before the next directional move, making near-term forecasts highly contingent on how the price behaves around the moving averages.
Overall, the market landscape remains delicate as traders reassess risk in a period of liquidity constraints and cautious positioning. The key near-term takeaway is that major assets are defending critical levels, but without a clear impulse from buyers, any break below established supports could accelerate the downside and redraw the scope of continued consolidation across the top ranks of the market.
Why it matters
For traders, the confluence of key supports and oversold conditions creates a fragile balance between retracements and renewed downside pressure. The tests of $74,508 and $72,169 for BTC, alongside Ethereum’s $2,111 floor, provide a battleground where micro-entries and risk controls will determine whether a relief rally gains momentum or if selling pressure resumes with renewed force. In this environment, altcoins trading near critical support zones are particularly vulnerable to quick shifts in sentiment, underscoring the importance of disciplined risk management and defined exit strategies.
From a broader market perspective, the situation underscores how macro dynamics and on-chain signals interact with technical thresholds. While some observers expect a rebound as oversold conditions unwind, others warn that the absence of catalysts could keep assets tethered to negative drift until fresh bullish narratives emerge. The tug-of-war between these viewpoints highlights the evolving complexity of crypto markets where liquidity, volatility, and sentiment can swing rapidly in response to both technical patterns and macro cues.
For developers and infrastructure teams building on-chain services, these conditions stress-test risk controls, liquidity provisioning, and the resilience of cross-chain flows. Elevated volatility can impact funding rates, borrow costs, and the timing of protocol upgrades, making robust risk assessment essential for participants across the ecosystem.
What to watch next
- BTC price action around $72,945 and $74,508: a decisive move below or above these levels will set the near-term trajectory.
- ETH at $2,111: a break below could target $1,750; a close above $2,467 and the 20-day EMA near $2,712 would signal bullish re-engagement.
- Relief rally triggers: a sustained move above $79,500 and toward $84,000 would be a meaningful bullish cue for BTC and correlated assets.
- Altcoin next supports: any breach of critical supports for SOL, XRP, ADA, BCH, and XMR could accelerate downside swings or alter the near-term trend.
- Market liquidity and risk tone: keep an eye on macro developments and any shifts in risk sentiment that could influence funding rates and asset correlations.
Sources & verification
- Galaxy Digital note stating BTC could fall to its realized price near $56,000 in coming weeks.
- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan’s post on X discussing a potential sooner-than-expected market rebound.
- Price levels: BTC below $72,169 and near $74,508 as critical support/resistance points; RSI in oversold territory.
- ETH support at $2,111 and possible targets at $1,750, $2,467, and $2,712 based on chart analysis.
- Channel and moving-average references used to discuss XRP, SOL, DOGE, ADA, BCH, XMR scenarios.
What the story means for readers
The current setup reinforces the importance of monitoring key support zones and momentum indicators in a market that remains sensitive to macro cues and risk appetite. While a relief rally is plausible if price action turns constructive, investors should remain cautious and rely on robust risk controls as the market tests multiple moving averages and defensive levels. For builders and participants in the ecosystem, this environment emphasizes the value of resilient liquidity management and the need to prepare for a range of outcomes, from shallow bounces to deeper corrections, as assets navigate the interplay between chart-based signals and fundamental drivers.
Market context
In a climate where risk assets exhibit episodic volatility, the crypto market continues to move in step with broader liquidity conditions and investor sentiment. Downside pressure at critical levels often precedes cautious bounces, while oversold readings can precede short-lived relief rallies. The balance between technical levels and macro cues will continue to shape price action in the near term, with traders watching for confirmatory moves that could change the current narrative from consolidation to a renewed phase of directional movement.
Why this matters to traders, builders, and investors
For traders, the next few days will test the strength of risk-off sentiment against the potential for a short-covering rally. For builders and users of crypto services, stability around key prices matters for funding rates, liquidity provisioning, and the reliability of on-chain operations during periods of volatility. Investors should differentiate between short-term swings and long-term fundamentals, avoiding over-interpretation of any single move while prioritizing risk controls and diversification in a market that has shown resilience but remains prone to abrupt shifts in direction.
This article was originally published as Bitcoin Dips to 2026 Low as Altcoins Crumble: Is BTC at $56K Next? on Crypto Breaking News – your trusted source for crypto news, Bitcoin news, and blockchain updates.
Changpeng “CZ” Zhao embraced a chance to distance himself from recent accusations against Binance that it has been involved in handling transactions that potentially enabled terrorism financing in Iran.
“I have zero interest in doing that,” said the founder and former chief executive of the exchange, who agreed to leave his company under a criminal settlement with the U.S. “I live in a country that’s being attacked by Iran. Even before that, I was just not interested in that,” he said in a video appearance at the Digital Chamber’s DC Blockchain Summit on Wednesday.
CZ, a resident of the United Arab Emirates, cited a couple of civil lawsuits recently dismissed in U.S. courts that had accused Binance of acting as a conduit for terrorism financing. He also argued that the Iran-tied transactions in question don’t generate fees and wouldn’t offer any business attraction for the firm to get involved in.
“There’s no benefit,” CZ, who’d served a prison sentence and received a pardon from President Donald Trump, said in defense of the implications against his former company.
Binance, the largest global crypto exchange that had settled U.S. anti-money-laundering and sanctions-violation accusations in 2023, sued the Wall Street Journal last week for reporting that it had fired compliance personnel who’d flagged suspicious transactions that may have violated sanctions. Internal investigators had allegedly flagged more than $1 billion in crypto transfers from Chinese clients into wallets linked to Iranian financing networks.
The company has asserted that it couldn’t find evidence that accounts on its platforms had transacted directly with Iranian entities.
CZ, who is close to launching a memoir he’d worked on during his time in prison, said he’s been targeted by false accusations.
“The way they’re attacking, they’re completely using false, baseless information,” he said.
Read More: Binance tells Senate probe no accounts sent crypto directly to Iran
Prediction markets platform Polymarket announced Wednesday the acquisition of Brahma, a financial infrastructure company that built real-time execution and settlement systems for high-volume digital asset and fintech transactions.
“[Brahma has] quickly become an industry leader in building and developing programmable systems across blockchain systems, trading execution, and payments,” said Polymarket in a press release sent via email.
“Building reliable infrastructure across blockchain networks and traditional financial rails is hard — there are no shortcuts,” said Shayne Coplan, Polymarket CEO and founder.
“The Brahma team has shown they can design, operate, and scale complex products for sophisticated users,” he added. “As Polymarket grows, we’re intentionally adding teams that have already solved difficult problems and can execute at a very high level.”
A Polymarket spokesperson told CoinDesk the terms of the agreement are not being disclosed.
Brahma also released a statement Wednesday saying Polymarket acquired its DeFi infrastructure to bring its team and technology into the prediction market company as it seeks to scale its infrastructure suite.
“With this acquisition, our team and our technology live on, to help scale Polymarket and its ecosystem,” the Brahma team said in a post on X. “Our mission to build at the core of crypto continues.”
The acquisition brings Brahma’s team and technology into Polymarket, where they will focus on expanding the platform’s infrastructure and product suite. It also appears aimed at improving
Earlier this month, reports emerged that Polymarket was discussing potential fundraising rounds that could double 2025 valuation to about $20 billion. The discussions remain early and may not lead to finalized investments.
Prediction markets allow users to trade contracts tied to real-world events, including sports, politics and elections. Traders buy and sell contracts based on expected outcomes. The sector has grown significantly, with companies including Coinbase and Robinhood entering the space.
Brahma said it has processed more than $1 billion in transaction volume and over $100 million in total value locked. The company also said that all of its products, including Brahma Accounts, Agents and Swype.fun, will be phased out within 30 days. Users have been instructed to migrate funds and positions via its website and community channels.
Welcome to our institutional newsletter, Crypto Long & Short. This week:
- Ruchir Gupta on how we’re moving toward a true fixed-income market for crypto-native yield.
- Clara García Prieto on bitcoin becoming mainstream collateral, but most are not prepared for its risks.
- Top headlines institutions should pay attention to by Francisco Rodrigues.
- Crypto card volumes hit $140 million record in Chart of the Week.
Expert Insights
When price stops working, yield starts mattering
– By Ruchir Gupta, co-founder, Gyld Finance
There is a pattern that repeats itself across asset classes. Bull markets are simple: buy risk, ride beta, everything looks like genius. Then conditions shift, leverage unwinds, volumes thin and the question changes from “how much did you make” to “what are you actually earning while you wait.”
Crypto is in that shift right now. Prices have corrected significantly, with bitcoin about 50% below its peak. Speculative positioning has compressed. Perpetual funding rates have normalized. For investors holding digital assets through this, yield has become the cushion that makes staying in the trade worthwhile.
Ether (ETH) staking, as measured by the benchmark Composite Ether Staking Rate (CESR), returns roughly 2.5% to 4% annualized. Solana (SOL) validator rewards run closer to 6% to 8%. Lending protocols offer variable rates across collateral types. Crypto-native yield is real, diversified across sources and does not require price appreciation to accrue.
The clearest evidence is in the staking participation data. ETH staking supply has hit all-time highs, with close to 30% of all ETH staked now. That growth continued through periods of significant price weakness. Allocators kept staking regardless of what ETH was doing in spot markets because the yield was there independent of price.
Institutions have noticed. After the SEC provided regulatory clarity around staking in U.S.-registered funds last year, nearly twenty staking-linked ETFs and ETPs have launched or been filed, including BlackRock’s iShares Staked Ethereum Trust and products from VanEck, Grayscale and Fidelity, more than in all previous years combined. Morgan Stanley, which manages roughly $8 trillion in client assets, applied in February for a national trust bank charter from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to offer crypto custody and staking services to its investment clients.
But every one of these products is, today, a passive fund. You get yield at whatever rate the network happens to be paying, bundled with price exposure, with no ability to manage duration or isolate income from principal. That leaves a lot on the table.
Staking yield has two characteristics that make it particularly interesting as a traded market:
First, rewards are variable and driven by network-level activity. Transaction volumes, validator set size and overall participation all move the rate. Staking rewards behave somewhat like a macro rate: when the network is busy and demand for block space is high, rewards rise; when activity falls, they compress. That variability is not just a risk to be passively absorbed. It is a signal that can be traded.
Second, staking is partly illiquid in a structured way. ETH’s validator entry queue currently runs over two months, meaning capital committed today does not start earning for more than sixty days. That queuing dynamic creates a forward curve. The rate you expect to earn in three months is not the same as the rate available today and the gap between them is something a market should price.
Together, these two features mean staking yield has the ingredients of a proper rates market: a floating benchmark that moves with observable fundamentals, and a term structure created by real illiquidity and expectations of forward network activity. This is exactly the kind of market active managers get paid to navigate.
Capturing that opportunity requires a toolkit that does not yet exist in regulated form: instruments that let you price yield independently of principal, so a buyer can take a view on rate direction without carrying spot exposure; instruments with defined maturities that make the illiquidity premium explicit and tradable; and instruments that separate the income stream from the capital claim entirely, so each can find its natural holder. In traditional fixed income, these are strip bonds, zero coupon instruments and floating-rate notes. They are the building blocks without which you cannot run anything more sophisticated than a passive fund.
Once those instruments exist, the rest follows naturally. The first active staking funds will look like something money market managers do today: rotating across maturities, pricing illiquidity risk and taking views on forward network activity rather than just collecting whatever rate the network is currently paying.
Decentralized finance (DeFi) tackled this problem early, though aimed at a different market and built on different yield sources. Protocols like Pendle Finance have built an elegant yield tokenization engine that separates principal tokens from yield tokens and lets them trade independently. The mechanics work, but the wrapper is unsuitable for institutional capital, as it looks too much like a security in most jurisdictions and lacks regulatory clarity.
What we are moving toward is a genuine fixed income market for crypto-native yield, with term structures, actively managed duration strategies and products that compete on the precision of their yield management rather than simply on access.
Bull markets reward beta. Bear markets reward income. Mature markets reward the ability to manage risk precisely. We are somewhere between the second and third phase, and the infrastructure for that third phase is largely still missing.
Principled Perspectives
Bitcoin as collateral: the shift redefining the financial system
– By Clara García Prieto, founder, BTL
More than five years ago, suggesting that bitcoin could be used as collateral — and that traditional financial institutions might seriously consider it — would have sounded improbable. Today, that scenario is no longer theoretical: bitcoin has entered the financial system and, in doing so, is redefining what we understand as collateral. Bitcoin is not just becoming collateral — it is redefining what collateral means.
As a lawyer, my view is clear: the use of bitcoin as collateral is inevitable, but most participants are not prepared for the risks it entails. In my opinion, this will be the dominant pattern over the next five to ten years.
To understand the magnitude of this shift, it is useful to look at a classic example: a real estate mortgage. In this structure, there is a loan (the principal obligation) and a guarantee (the property) that secures it. Bitcoindoes not fit neatly within the current logic:: it is not tied to a specific jurisdiction, it does not rely on public registries and its control is based on cryptographic keys. This forces us to reinterpret the concept of collateral rather than simply replicate it.
Bitcoin has unique characteristics: it is a digital asset, finite, with a fixed and deterministic supply. Many who hold it — whether individuals or companies — do not to part with it. On the one hand, this is because of its scarcity and potential appreciation; on the other, because of the tax implications of disposing of it. This is where a key shift emerges: obtaining liquidity without selling the asset.
However, there is a structural tension. Bitcoin does not typically depend on intermediaries, but collateralized transactions must depend upon them to some extent. And this is the real critical point.
In centralized models, the primary risk is custody. The user must trust that the entity holding the collateral acts diligently and remains solvent. Translating this to trust to the crypto context is not a minor issue and requires careful analysis of how custody is managed. Traditional financial institutions are already exploring this — for example, by assessing the use of bitcoin ETFs as collateral for institutional clients. The movement has begun, even if we are still only seeing the tip of the iceberg.
In decentralized finance (DeFi), the problem is different. Native bitcoin cannot be used directly, as it requires the use of tokenized representations. This introduces new risks: reliance on smart contracts, protocol risk, potential price discrepancies and the need for active collateral management. Additionally, there may be tax implications, depending on jurisdiction, if the transaction is treated as a taxable event.
At the same time, the use of bitcoin as collateral is beginning to be integrated into corporate treasury strategies. In my view, this will be one of the most relevant developments. Companies with strong liquidity and solid balance sheets can use bitcoin as a strategic asset, reducing their reliance on external financing. Those who adopt it early will have a clear competitive advantage.
That said, bitcoin’s volatility will prevent it from replacing traditional collateral. No financial system can rely exclusively on an asset that can fluctuate significantly over short periods of time, as they require overcollateralization and strict risk management mechanisms.
We are facing a form of collateral with unique characteristics that cannot be ignored. Volatility and the associated risks — custody, counterparty and structural — are real. But so is its potential. The use of bitcoin as collateral is no longer a hypothetical; it will become increasingly common. The question is not whether it will happen, but who is prepared to manage it properly.
Headlines of the Week
– By Francisco Rodrigues
The cryptocurrency industry has kept on slowly maturing over the week, with headlines pointing to the Bitcoin network’s physical resilience, the Ethereum Foundation’s evolution, and further institutionalization of the technology underpinning it.
- Bitcoin can survive 72% of the world’s submarine cables being cut: That’s according to a Cambridge study spanning 11 years and 68 verified cable failures. It found Bitcoin’s physical infrastructure is far more resilient than previously thought.
- Ethereum Foundation publishes new mandate defining its role, core principles: In a 38-page document, the Ethereum Foundation outlined its philosophy and role as a steward of the Ethereum network. The document emphasizes Ethereum’s core mission to enable user self-sovereignty, and that it must preserve censorship resistance, open source, privacy and security.
- European Central Bank unveils tokenized finance plan to bolster EU’s financial autonomy: The European Central Bank published its Appia roadmap, outlining a long-term plan to build a euro-anchored tokenized wholesale financial system using distributed ledger technology and central bank money settlement.
- Mastercard Launches Global Crypto Partner Program with 85+ Companies: Mastercard unveiled its Crypto Partner Program, bringing together more than 85 companies, including Ripple, Solana, Circle, Binance and other major players, to accelerate real-world blockchain use cases in cross-border payments, settlement and consumer crypto spending.
- Prediction markets get tailored U.S. guidance from former foe CFTC: The agency, which was once a legal opponent of certain activity at prediction markets, is now establishing policy for their oversight, with staff-issued advisory to regulated firms and initial guidance rolling out.
Chart of the Week
Crypto card volumes hit $140 million record as Neobank tokens lag behind
Weekly crypto card volumes continue their steady uptrend, reaching a new milestone of $140 million this week driven largely by RedotPay’s dominant $91 million contribution. While the broader Neobank Performance Index (including tokens like Avici and ETHFI) remains down 34% since the start of 2025, it has shown signs of a recent turnaround with a 10% recovery month-to-date. This divergence suggests that while asset valuations are still recovering from yearly lows, the actual utility and transaction volume of crypto cards are scaling to all-time highs.
Listen. Read. Watch. Engage.
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Note: The views expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinDesk, Inc., CoinDesk Indices or its owners and affiliates.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained at 26 on Wednesday, after rising to 28, a day earlier, ending the indicators’ 48-day stretch in the “extreme fear” zone.
The Crypto Fear & Greed index tracks market sentiment using volatility, momentum, volume, and social data. Any reading below 25 signals extreme fear, while higher values reflect an improving risk appetite.
The index reading points to an improvement in market sentiment this week, marking its first exit from extreme fear in over six weeks.
The move coincides with a recovery in the total crypto market capitalization, which has added 7.65% in March, equivalent to roughly $174 billion. This marks the first monthly bullish expansion since September 2025. Before this, the market declined nearly 40%, dropping to $2.28 trillion from $3.65 trillion in the previous five months.
Market researcher Sminston With provided additional context to the Fear & Greed index.
With said that an analysis of the past Bitcoin market cycles shows that buying BTC during fear phases delivered stronger returns over a two to four-year window.
The average gains reached 331% over three years, compared to 100% for BTC entries made during the greed phases. However, over longer time periods (four to five years), the return differences narrowed, with both the entry strategies converging as Bitcoin’s long-term growth trend dominated the price action.
Related: SOL price signal tied to previous 142% rally flashes again: Are the bulls back?
A rise in stablecoin inflows signals liquidity return
Binance exchange flow data shows a shift in capital movement. Binance recorded a $2.2 billion inflow in Tether USDt (USDT) on March 18, marking the largest single-day stablecoin deposit since November 2025.
These inflows represent the available capital, often referred to as “dry powder,” that can be deployed into the crypto markets. The spike coincided with Bitcoin pushing into higher price levels near $75,000 on Monday, linking the liquidity injection with active trader positioning.
Meanwhile, the total stablecoin reserves across exchanges surged to $68.5 billion from a six-month low of $64 billion on March 8, marking a sharp increase of 7%, within a short period.
A rise in exchange-held stablecoins typically signals that participants are preparing to deploy funds into spot or derivatives markets. This indicates that traders are re-entering with the intent to take positions, adding to near-term buying capacity.
Related: Australian crypto shopping surges, but so do banking blocks: Survey
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
FTX Recovery Trust announced Wednesday it will distribute roughly $2.2 billion to creditors on March 31 as part of its ongoing bankruptcy recovery process, with additional payments to preferred equity holders scheduled later this year.
The payout marks the fourth distribution under FTX’s Chapter 11 reorganization plan and will go to creditors in both “Convenience” and “Non-Convenience” classes who have completed required onboarding steps, the trust’s statement says. Funds are expected to arrive within 1 to 3 business days via BitGo, Kraken, or Payoneer.
The trust also clarified all distributions are made in U.S. dollars to designated service providers, which then offer options for fiat withdrawal or conversion into digital assets.
The previous distribution to creditors took place from Sept. 30, when the trust announced the release of $1.6 billion, the third major payout since the collapse of the crypto exchange more than three years ago.
Earlier rounds totalled over $6 billion as part of a process aimed at recovering assets for users of the once-prominent cryptocurrency exchange, which collapsed in November 2022, triggering a steep crypto bear market. Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder and CEO of the exchange, is serving a 25-year sentence after being found guilty of seven counts of fraud and conspiracy.
The latest distribution pushes recovery rates higher across several claim classes, the trust said. The statement added that in this fourth distribution, those eligible for distribution classed as “Class 5A Dotcom” would receive an additional 18% (bringing total recovery to 96%), while U.S. customer claims classed as “5B” would reach full recovery at 100%. Those in classes “6A” and “6B” would also recover 100% recovery, each receiving a 15% increment. “Class 7,” meanwhile, would receive a cumulative 120% distribution, the statement said.
FTX said customers who opted to receive funds through a designated distribution provider have waived their right to direct cash payments and must work with those platforms to access their funds.
The estate also set April 30 as the record date for its first payments to preferred equity holders, with payments scheduled for May 29. Eligible holders must complete ownership certification, know-your-customer (KYC) verification and tax documentation to qualify, the trust said.
FTX began outreach to equity holders earlier this year and urged those who have not been contacted to come forward. Further distribution timelines are expected to be announced, the statement concluded.
An eagle is seen framed though construction fence on the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, the main offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on September 16, 2025 in Washington, DC, U.S.
Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images News | Getty Images
The Federal Reserve is still expecting to cut interest rates once this year in spite of a spike in oil prices from the Iran war.
The central bank’s so-called dot plot, which shows the anonymous expectations of the 19 individual members, showed a median estimate of 3.4% for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026, the same as what it had projected at the end of last year.
However, a closer look at the overall dot plot showed the balance of projections moved toward fewer reductions, meaning more members are forecasting one reduction from two previously.
“If you notice, the median didn’t change, but there was actually some movement toward — a meaningful amount of movement — toward fewer cuts by people,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in his post-meeting remarks. “So four or five people went from two to one, let’s say, two cuts to one cut.”
The Fed kept rates unchanged on Wednesday, voting 11-1 to keep the benchmark federal funds rate anchored in a range between 3.5%-3.75%.
Traders had come into the year hopeful for two interest rate cuts. However, that expectation has been getting pushed out in recent weeks because of data showing hotter inflation that could put the central bank on hold.
In particular, it complicates the job of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, who is set to succeed current Chair Powell when his term ends in May. Warsh, who was handpicked by President Donald Trump, has expressed his support for lower rates.
The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections showed higher inflation projections for the year, as well as a somewhat faster pace of growth.
The forecast for personal consumption expenditures inflation climbed to 2.7% for 2026, up from 2.4% in December. The projection for core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is more closely watched by the Fed, also rose to 2.7% from 2.5%.
However, the change in real GDP rose to 2.4% from 2.3% in December.
Fed funds futures were last pricing in just one rate cut in 2026, as well as the greater likelihood that the central bank may remain on hold, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
— CNBC’s Gabriel Cortes and Jeff Cox contributed to this report.
WASHINGTON – The Federal Reserve on Wednesday voted to hold its key interest rate steady as policymakers navigate their way through higher-than-expected inflation readings, mixed signs on the labor market – and a war.
In a widely expected decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 to keep the benchmark federal funds rate anchored in a range between 3.5%-3.75%. The rate sets overnight funding costs for banks but influences a broad range of consumer and business borrowing.
The committee in its post-meeting statement made few changes to its view on the economy, with a slightly faster pace of growth and higher inflation projections for 2026.
Despite the elevated uncertainty, officials again signaled they still expect a few rate cuts ahead. The closely watched “dot plot,” which reflects individual members’ rate projections, pointed to one reduction this year and another in 2027, though the timing remains unclear.
Of the 19 FOMC participants, seven signaled they expected rates to stay unchanged this year, one more than the last update in December. While future years showed a fairly wide disbursement of forecasts, the median outlook is for an additional cut in 2027 before the funds rate steadies out around 3.1% for the long term.
Stocks fell to session lows as the central bank’s decision and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell drew more attention to the threat of persistant inflation.
War’s implications are ‘uncertain’
One factor is the uncertainty associated with the war with Iran that started nearly three weeks ago. The fighting and its impact on the Strait of Hormuz has roiled the global oil market and threatened to keep inflation above the Fed’s 2% target.
“The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain,” the statement said.
During his news conference, Powell said it was “too soon to know” the impact of the war.
“Near term measures of inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks, likely reflecting the substantial rise in oil prices caused by the supply disruptions in the Middle East,” he said.
Governor Stephen Miran again dissented, favoring a quarter percentage point cut amid rising concerns about the jobs climate. Governor Christopher Waller, who joined Miran in wanting a cut in January, voted this time to hold.
Before the conflict, markets had been pricing in two reductions this year, with a small chance of a third. But rising oil prices and a string of firm inflation readings — entailing data from before the energy shock — have pushed expectations down to at most one cut in 2026.
Faster economic growth seen
In updates to their economic projections, Fed officials see gross domestic product increasing at a 2.4% pace this year, a bit faster than in December. Growth is projected to progress at a solid 2.3% rate in 2027, up three-tenths of a percentage point from the previous outlook.
Officials also upped their inflation outlook for this year. They now expect the personal consumption expenditures price index to reflect a 2.7% inflation rate, both on headline and core. However, they see inflation falling back near the Fed’s 2% target in ensuing years as the impact of tariffs and the war fade. Policymakers continue to expect a 4.4% unemployment rate by year’s end, despite a string of weak payrolls readings.
The Fed’s decision to hold comes against a complicated political backdrop.
President Donald Trump continues to badger Powell and his colleagues to lower rates. Earlier this week, Trump criticized Powell for not calling a special meeting to ease, even with inflation running hot and the uncertainty of the war’s impact.
For his part, Powell presided over what could be his next-to-last meeting as head of the central bank. His term is set to end in May, and Trump has tapped former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the successor. Warsh has indicated a preference for lower rates, though he has not issued any recent public statements to indicate where his thinking is now.
Complicating the dynamic further is Trump’s own Justice Department.
U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro in Washington has subpoenaed Powell for evidence regarding the Fed’s multibillion-dollar headquarters renovation. Powell, though, has resisted the subpoena, and accused Trump of using it as a pretext to pressure the Fed into lowering rates. A judge sided with Powell on the issue, tossing the subpoenas and agreeing with the notion that the effort was simply to twist Powell’s arm to cut.
However, Pirro has vowed to appeal, and Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., has in turn said he would block Warsh’s nomination in the Senate Banking Committee until the Powell matter is settled. Assuming the court battle continues past May, that would keep Powell in his seat until Warsh is confirmed.
Powell touched on this during the news conference, saying “I have no intention of leaving the board until the investigation is well and truly over, with transparency and finality.”
Once it wraps, Powell is undecided. “I have not made that decision yet, and I will make that decision based on what I think is best for the institution and for the people we serve.”
Powell’s term on the Board of Governors doesn’t expire until early 2028.
Correction: An earlier version of this story misspelled Sen. Thom Tillis’ name.
Key Takeaways
- Red Cat shares rose approximately 12% Wednesday, nearing the 52-week peak of $18.78
- Fourth-quarter revenue projections range from $24M to $26.5M, representing a 1,842% increase from last year’s $1.3M
- Fiscal 2025 revenue outlook of $38M–$41M represents more than double the $15.6M recorded in 2024
- The company’s SRR Tranche 2 agreement with the U.S. Army has grown to approximately $35M in value
- Wall Street analysts maintain a consensus “Hold” rating with a mean price target of $19.33
Red Cat Holdings experienced another strong trading session on Wednesday, with shares advancing roughly 12% during intraday action. The stock reached the $18.10–$18.13 zone as investors awaited the company’s fourth-quarter financial results scheduled for release after market close.
The market’s enthusiasm stems from impressive preliminary figures. In January, the drone manufacturer issued Q4 revenue projections of $24M to $26.5M. Analyst consensus estimates entered the quarter at roughly $23.95M, placing the company’s own forecast comfortably above Street expectations.
To put this in perspective, fourth-quarter 2024 revenue totaled just $1.3M. The projected year-over-year expansion rate of 1,842% is extraordinary by any measure.
For the full 2025 fiscal year, Red Cat anticipates revenue between $38M and $41M — a significant jump from 2024’s $15.6M, exceeding the guidance parameters established last November.
The Growth Catalysts Behind Red Cat’s Performance
The company’s revenue acceleration traces primarily to its U.S. Army Short Range Reconnaissance (SRR) Tranche 2 agreement. Initially secured as a Limited Rate Production contract in July 2025, this deal has expanded to roughly $35M in total value. The contract focuses on Red Cat’s Teal drone technology.
Third-quarter results already telegraphed the coming momentum shift. That period delivered $9.6M in revenue — a 646% year-over-year jump and 200% sequential increase — surpassing analyst forecasts. Following those results, management upgraded Q4 guidance, with CEO Jeff Thompson stating the upcoming quarter would generate “more revenue in one quarter than we have ever done in a 12 month period.”
Thompson also emphasized the Black Widow drone platform as the current primary revenue generator. This system recently gained approval for inclusion in the NATO NSPA catalog, enabling procurement by NATO member states and allied nations.
Beyond terrestrial applications, the company has diversified into new verticals. Its newly launched Blue Ops maritime division represents what Thompson called “perhaps the most exciting strategic expansion” for the business.
Wall Street and Institutional Positioning
Ladenburg Thalmann lifted its RCAT price objective from $15 to $20 in a March 3 research note, maintaining a “Buy” recommendation. Needham reaffirmed its “Buy” rating with a $16 target on March 2. Northland Securities maintains the most bullish outlook with a $22 target established in January, while Weiss Ratings takes a contrarian “Sell” position.
The aggregated analyst view stands at “Hold” with a mean price objective of $19.33.
Institutional investors increased their exposure during the fourth quarter of 2024. Invesco expanded holdings by 36.3%, Janus Henderson grew its stake by 29.5%, and Caitong International Asset Management surged its position by more than 1,800%. Institutional ownership currently represents approximately 38% of shares outstanding.
Technically, the stock trades well above both its 50-day moving average of $13.55 and 200-day moving average of $11.00. Wednesday’s 12% advance positions RCAT just below its 52-week high of $18.78.
CFO Chris Ericson observed that the company’s financial metrics demonstrate enhanced operational leverage as manufacturing capabilities expand to accommodate increasing demand.
The post Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) Stock Surges 12% Near 52-Week Peak on Strong Earnings Outlook appeared first on Blockonomi.
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark fed funds rate range steady at 3.50%-3.75% on Wednesday, as expected.
Down nearly 4% ahead of the anticipated decision following a surge in oil prices and poor inflation data earlier on Wednesday, bitcoin remained sharply lower at $71,600 in the moments following the news.
U.S. stocks remain lower for the day, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 each down by 0.55%. The 10-year Treasury yield remains higher by a tick at 4.21%.
“The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain,” said the central bank in its accompanying statement.
The vote to hold policy steady was 11-1, with Stephen Miran voting to trim rates by 25 basis points.
The Fed also updated its economic projections. Of particular note was a sizable rise in inflation expectations — now seen at 2.7% for 2026 versus 2.4% previously. Inflation, however, is expected to drop to 2.2% in 2027 against 2.1% projected earlier.
The so-called “dot plot” continues to show expectations for one 25-basis-point rate cut in 2026 and one more in 2027.
The U.S. central bank must balance what appears to be a slowing employment market with inflation that remains well above its 2% target. Adding to that is the March attack against Iran, which has sent the price of oil to nearly $100 per barrel versus less than $60 earlier this year.
Investors will now turn their attention to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference at 2:30 pm ET for further insight into the central bank’s outlook.
The decentralized finance sector is well accustomed to lightning-fast exploits, with hackers making off with millions in the blink of an eye. However, a recent attack on Venus Protocol was neither quick, nor profitable.
Indeed, the months-long exploit ended with the attacker down $4.7 million… on-chain, at least.
The latest analysis of Sunday’s hack from audit firm BlockSec states that “the on-chain picture is more complex” than the widely-reported $3.7 million hack, and that “both the protocol and the attacker ended up losing money.”
Read more: Oracle error adds to turmoil at DeFi giant Aave
The attack itself was long-planned and involved accumulating Thena’s THE token over nine months. Allez Labs’ technical post mortem describes how the hacker built up considerable THE positions, funded via Tornado Cash.
They then surpassed Venus’ THE supply cap, manipulated the value of their THE used as collateral, and borrowed assets worth almost $15 million against it.
However, BlockSec’s analysis of the on-chain profit-and-loss found that the hacker “invested $9.92 million and retained only ~$5.2 million after all liquidations, an on-chain net loss of ~$4.7 million.”
Despite the on-chain loss incurred, their payoff may have come from off-chain positions, such as centralized exchange accounts.
Venus Protocol itself was left with $2.1 million of bad debt as liquidation bots sold THE collateral into thin liquidity. Allez Labs also notes that the attack vector “was flagged in a 2023 Code4rena audit but dismissed as having ‘no negative side effects.’”
One security researcher claims to have made $15,000 shorting THE whilst tracking the exploit.
Read more: Whitehat hacker accuses Injective of ghosting after $500M bug disclosure
Venus: Too close to the sun
Venus Protocol is the largest lending platform on BNB Chain (formerly Binance Smart Chain), with $1.45 billion in total value locked.
Launched in 2020, it’s seen more than its fair share of trouble over the years.
In September, fears of a $27 million hack turned out to be a Venus user falling for a phishing scam. The protocol was paused and the user’s position was liquidated to recover the stolen funds.
Read more: DeFi exploiter targets lending protocols with oracle tricks
A year ago, the platform incurred $900,000 of bad debt “from an oracle manipulation attack that nobody saw coming… except everyone should have.”
The incident’s post mortem report put the blame on “Mountain’s WUSDM Exchange Rate Oracle.”
In 2023, the protocol braced for the liquidation of $150 million in BNB from 2022’s $600M hack of the BNB Bridge.
Venus was one of many protocols affected by the fallout of 2022’s LUNA meltdown. It accrued $14 million in bad debt when a Chainlink price feed for LUNA bottomed out.
Finally, volatility on its native token XVS led to $200 million in liquidations and caused $90 million in bad debt back in 2021.
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