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Bitcoin Down 49.53% From ATH: How Far Can BTC Fall Before This Bear Market Finds a Bottom?

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Bitcoin Down 49.53% From ATH: How Far Can BTC Fall Before This Bear Market Finds a Bottom?

TLDR:

  • Bitcoin has fallen 49.53% from its October 6, 2025 ATH, wiping out roughly $1.2 trillion in total market cap.
  • The BPDA% metric sits deep below its one-year average, signaling extreme stress, capitulation, and widespread panic selling.
  • Bitcoin’s Realized Price near $54,600 marks a historically significant accumulation zone during past bear market cycles.
  • The $49,000 to $42,000 range holds the highest probability of bear exhaustion and may signal the start of the next cycle.

Bitcoin’s 49.53% decline from its all-time high has wiped out roughly $1.2 trillion in market value. The drop has renewed serious debate about how far this bear market can extend.

On October 6, 2025, Bitcoin’s market cap sat at $2.4891 trillion. Today, it has fallen to $1.2918 trillion. With extreme fear gripping the market and macro pressures mounting, analysts are now mapping the levels where Bitcoin could finally find its floor.

On-Chain Data Points to Where Bitcoin’s Decline May Stall

The BTC Price Drawdown Analysis (BPDA%) is one metric drawing close attention right now. When this reading falls far below its one-year average, it historically marks phases of stress, capitulation, and panic. That is exactly where it stands at this moment.

Crypto analyst GugaOnChain flagged this condition, noting that the current drawdown places Bitcoin in extreme stress territory.

Macro factors are adding pressure, particularly the 10% global tariffs announced by the Trump administration. These developments have kept fear elevated across broader risk markets.

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Source: Cryptoquant

When BPDA% sits near its one-year average, the market is considered to be within a normal historical pattern. A reading well above that average typically signals recovery or relative stability. Neither condition applies today, which is why analysts continue watching lower levels carefully.

The data, therefore, suggests the correction may not be over. However, history also shows that readings this deep tend to precede meaningful accumulation phases. The question now is which price level triggers that shift.

Four Price Levels That Could Determine How Low Bitcoin Goes

GugaOnChain identified four support zones that may define Bitcoin’s downside from here. The $60,000 level is the nearest, though it is considered less likely to hold as a durable bottom given current momentum.

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Below that, Bitcoin’s Realized Price near $54,600 becomes relevant. This metric reflects the average price at which all coins last moved on-chain. Historically, the Realized Price has acted as a magnet for accumulation activity during bear markets.

Further down, the $49,000 region carries the highest probability of bear exhaustion based on the analysis. This zone has previously drawn in long-term holders who view deep corrections as entry opportunities rather than reasons to exit.

The $42,000 level represents the most extreme scenario outlined in the data. While it would place a large portion of the market in unrealized loss, GugaOnChain describes it as an excellent area for initial long-term entries.

If on-chain metrics confirm seller exhaustion at any of these levels, the range between $49,000 and $42,000 could mark not just the bottom of this bear market, but the foundation for Bitcoin’s next major cycle.

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Cross-Chain Governance Attacks – Smart Liquidity Research

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Cross-Chain Governance Attacks - Smart Liquidity Research

The Governance Exploit Nobody Is Pricing In. Bridges get hacked. That’s old news. We’ve seen the carnage: nine-figure exploits, drained liquidity, emergency shutdowns, Twitter threads filled with “funds are safu” copium.

From Ronin Network to Wormhole, bridge exploits have become a recurring tax on innovation. But here’s the uncomfortable truth. The next systemic risk in crypto probably won’t be a bridge exploit. It’ll be a governance exploit enabled by cross-chain voting power. And almost nobody is pricing it in.

The Shift: From Asset Bridges to Power Bridges

Cross-chain infrastructure has evolved.

We’re no longer just bridging tokens for yield. We’re bridging:

Protocols increasingly allow governance tokens to exist on multiple chains simultaneously — often via wrapped representations or omnichain token standards (like those enabled by LayerZero Labs).

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This improves capital efficiency and participation.

But it also introduces a new attack surface:

The separation of voting power from finality.

The Core Problem: Governance Is Local. Voting Power Is Not.

Governance contracts typically live on a single “home” chain.

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But voting power can be represented across multiple chains.

This creates a dangerous gap:

  1. Tokens are locked on Chain A

  2. Voting power is mirrored on Chain B

  3. Governance decisions are executed on Chain A

If the system relies on cross-chain messaging to sync voting balances, any delay, exploit, or manipulation in that messaging layer becomes a governance vector.

You don’t need to drain liquidity.

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You just need to distort voting power long enough.

And governance proposals often pass with shockingly low turnout.

The Attack Path Nobody Talks About

Let’s walk through a hypothetical.

Step 1: Acquire or Manipulate Voting Power Cross-Chain

An attacker:

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  • Borrows governance tokens

  • Bridges them to a secondary chain

  • Exploits a delay in balance updates

  • Or abuses inconsistencies in wrapped token accounting

In poorly designed systems, the same underlying tokens may temporarily influence voting in multiple domains.

Even if briefly.

Even if “just a bug.”

Governance doesn’t need hours. It needs one block.

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Step 2: Flash Governance

We’ve already seen governance flash-loan exploits in DeFi.

The most infamous example? The attack on Beanstalk in 2022.

The attacker used flash loans to acquire massive voting power, passed a malicious proposal, and drained ~$182M.

Now imagine that dynamic — but across chains.

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Flash-loaned tokens → bridged representation → governance vote → malicious proposal executed → unwind.

All before the watchers even understand what happened.

Step 3: Proposal Payloads as Weapons

Governance proposals can:

If cross-chain voting power is compromised, the proposal payload becomes the exploit.

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No bridge drain required.

Just governance “working as designed.”

Why Markets Aren’t Pricing This Risk

Three reasons.

1. Everyone Is Still Fighting the Last War

After major bridge hacks, teams hardened signature validation and multisig thresholds.

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But governance-layer risk is subtler.

It doesn’t show up as “TVL at risk” on dashboards.

It shows up as “who controls protocol direction.”

That’s harder to quantify.

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2. Voting Participation Is Low

Many DAOs struggle to get 10–20% participation.

Which means:

You don’t need 51%.

You need slightly more than apathy.

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Cross-chain voting power distortions don’t need to be massive. They just need to be decisive.

3. Composability Multiplies Complexity

Modern governance stacks combine:

  • Delegation contracts

  • Token wrappers

  • Cross-chain messaging

  • Snapshot systems

  • Execution timelocks

Each layer introduces potential inconsistencies.

And composability means failures cascade.

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Where the Real Risk Lives

This isn’t about one protocol.

It’s systemic.

The more governance tokens become:

The more fragile governance assumptions become.

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If a governance token is:

You’ve built a multi-dimensional voting derivative.

And derivatives break under stress.

Ask TradFi. They have scars.

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The Governance Exploit Nobody Is Pricing In

Markets price:

  • Smart contract risk

  • Bridge exploit risk

  • Oracle manipulation risk

But they do not price:

Cross-domain voting synchronization risk.

No dashboards are tracking:

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  • Governance message latency

  • Cross-chain vote desync windows

  • Wrapped-token vote inflation

  • Double-counted delegation

Yet these variables may determine who controls billion-dollar treasuries.

What Builders Should Be Doing (Now)

If you’re designing cross-chain governance:

1. Separate Voting Power from Bridged Liquidity

Avoid naïve 1:1 mirroring without strict finality checks.

2. Introduce Vote Finality Windows

Require:

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  • Cross-chain state verification

  • Message settlement delays

  • Proof-of-lock confirmations

Before votes are counted.

3. Use Decay or Cooldowns on Newly Bridged Tokens

Voting power shouldn’t activate instantly after bridging.

If tokens just moved chains 5 seconds ago, maybe they shouldn’t decide protocol destiny.

4. Simulate Governance Stress Scenarios

Run adversarial simulations:

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If your governance model breaks under simulation, it will break in production.

What Investors Should Be Asking

Before allocating to a multi-chain DAO:

  • Where does governance live?

  • How is voting power mirrored?

  • Can voting power be double-counted during bridge latency?

  • What happens if the messaging layer stalls?

  • Is there a time lock between the vote and execution?

If the answers are vague, the risk is real.

And it’s not priced in.

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The Inevitable Wake-Up Call

Crypto learns through catastrophe.

  • Smart contract exploits → audits became standard.

  • Oracle exploits → TWAP and redundancy

  • Bridge hacks → validator hardening

Governance-layer cross-chain exploits are likely next.

And when it happens, it won’t look like a hack.

It’ll look like a proposal that “passed.”

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That’s the scary part.

Final Thought

Cross-chain infrastructure is powerful. It enables capital mobility, global participation, and modular design.

But it also decouples authority from location.

And when authority becomes fluid across chains, attackers don’t need to steal funds.

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They just need to win a vote.

That’s the governance exploit nobody is pricing in.

And by the time the market does, it’ll already be too late.

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Payoneer Adds to Crypto, Fintech Firms Seeking Bank Charter

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Payoneer Adds to Crypto, Fintech Firms Seeking Bank Charter

Global financial services firm Payoneer is the latest in a growing number of companies that have filed for a national trust banking charter in the US, which could enable it to issue a stablecoin and provide various crypto services.

Payoneer said on Tuesday it filed with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to form PAYO Digital Bank, a week after it partnered with stablecoin infrastructure firm Bridge to add stablecoin capabilities to its platform that is mainly focused on cross-border transactions.

Payoneer said that it is seeking to issue a GENIUS Act-compliant stablecoin, PAYO-USD, to serve as the holding currency in Payoneer wallets, in addition to allowing customers to pay and receive stablecoins.

OCC approval would also enable Payoneer to manage PAYO-USD reserves, offer custodial services and enable customers to convert between the stablecoins into their local currency.

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“We believe stablecoins will play a meaningful role in the future of global trade,” said Payoneer CEO John Caplan.

Source: Payoneer

The OCC gave conditional approval to Crypto.com for a charter on Monday, adding to the banking charters won by crypto companies Circle, Ripple, Fidelity Digital Assets, BitGo and Paxos in December.

Related: Better, Framework Ventures reach $500M stablecoin mortgage financing deal

The Trump family’s World Liberty Financial also applied for one in January to expand the use of its USD1 (USD1) stablecoin, but is still awaiting a decision. 

Crypto trading platform Laser Platform also submitted an application in January, while Coinbase has been awaiting a decision on its application since October.

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Stablecoins ideal for business cross-border transfers: Payoneer

Payoneer said OCC approval would allow it to offer its nearly two million customers, which are mostly small and medium-sized businesses, a regulated stablecoin solution to simplify cross-border trade.