Bitcoin ETFs bleed $410M amid $2.5B options expiry: is BTC facing deeper crash?

• Bitcoin saw spot ETF outflows of over $410 million as prices struggled.
• Over $2.5 billion in Bitcoin options expired on Friday.
• Analysts say “worst of downturn” likely over but market remains bearish.

Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of over $410 million on February 12, as investors withdrew capital from the exchange-traded funds amid growing fears of a broader crypto market downturn.

And on Friday morning, Feb. 13, BTC price fluctuated near $66,800 as the market recorded a massive $2.5 billion Bitcoin options expiry.

Crypto analysts have shared their thoughts on what this could mean for the Bitcoin price in the short term.

Bitcoin ETF outflows and $2.5 billion options expiry

Data showed that on US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of over $410 million yesterday, with none of the 12 spot ETFs notching net inflows.

BlackRock’s IBIT led with nearly $158 million, Fidelity’s FBTC had $104 million, and Grayscale’s GBTC had over $59 million in exits.

This marked the second consecutive day of redemptions, following $276 million on February 11.

Institutional investors are pulling back amid Bitcoin’s struggles around the $67,500-$65,450 range.

The fresh ETF outflows coincide with a pivotal weekly options expiry at 08:00 UTC on Feb. 13.

Approximately 38,000 Bitcoin contracts worth $2.5 billion in notional value have expired, primarily on Deribit, with a put/call ratio of 0.72 and maximum pain near $74,000.

Ethereum also saw 215,000 ETH options worth $410 million expire, with a put/call ratio of 0.82 and a maximum pain point at $2,100.

These maximum pain points are at values well above spot BTC and ETH levels, and likely the driver of downward pressure as market makers look to hedge delta exposure on out-of-the-money calls.

Bitcoin price prediction

The ETF outflows and broader market weakness hinder bulls, and sentiment is skewed bearish, analysts say.

“Today saw the expiration of options accounting for 9% of total open interest, totaling nearly $2.9 billion. This week, implied volatility for Bitcoin and Ethereum has declined, with BTC’s main-term IV at 50% and ETH’s at 70%. While the downward price trend has moderated, market confidence remains weak,” analysts at Greeks.live noted via X.

Despite this outlook, the market may have “the most violent leg of the downturn” behind it. If sentiment improves, prices could pick up an upside trajectory.

In this case, a relief rally to above the critical $70,000 mark is likely.

However, ETF bleeding and macroeconomic headwinds could greatly cap upside momentum.

On Thursday, Standard Chartered forecast Bitcoin price could retest $50k before rising to $100k by the end of 2026. The bank cites ETF outflows, macro pressures and broader risk asset sentiment as negative catalysts.

Notably, BTC tested support at $60k this month, and the elevated implied volatility, coupled with ETF exits, signals aggressive downside protection.

If outflows continue amid other highlighted downside triggers, the $50k level could be the next target.