The ripple effects of geopolitical conflict are reshaping the plumbing of global trade finance, pushing some commodity traders out of the banking system and into the arms of stablecoins.

That’s according to Luke Sully, CEO of trade finance-focused stablecoin issuer Haycen, who says the war involving Iran has heightened compliance fears among Western banks, triggering a fresh wave of “debanking” across commodity markets.

“Since the war, banks are further retreating from certain commodity flows,” Sully told CoinDesk in an interview.

“We spoke with some commodity traders who are getting debanked now,” he added.

The $2 trillion market

The concern centers on counterparty risk.

Banks worry that seemingly legitimate transactions, say, involving firms in Oman or other regional hubs, could have indirect exposure to sanctioned Iranian entities. Rather than take the risk, some institutions are stepping back entirely.

The result is reduced access to traditional rails in a sector that is already largely financed outside of traditional banking.

Trade finance, a roughly $2 trillion market for international trade transactions, has increasingly been dominated by non-bank lenders, including private credit funds that finance the movement of commodities and goods globally.

“Everybody thinks they know about trade finance, but they don’t,” Sully says. “It’s predominantly non-bank investment funds lending to borrowers around the world to move goods and services.”

These lenders provide critical liquidity, often earning annualized returns of around 15%, and enable transactions such as shipping helium from Qatar to South Korea or manganese from South Africa to Indonesia.

But they rely on banks for settlement and payment rails, relationships that are now under strain.

Stablecoins, digital tokens pegged to fiat currencies, typically the U.S. dollar, are emerging as a key workaround. In particular, Tether’s USDT has seen growing adoption among commodity traders and counterparties operating in emerging markets.

These cryptocurrencies have rapidly evolved from a niche crypto trading tool into one of the fastest-growing segments of global finance, with total market capitalization surpassing $300 billion in 2025 after roughly 50% annual growth.

Transaction volumes have surged even faster, exceeding $4 trillion in 2025 and now accounting for around 30% of all onchain activity, underscoring their growing role as a medium for cross-border payments and dollar access in emerging markets.

Tether’s dominance

Once primarily used within crypto markets, stablecoins are increasingly being adopted for real-world use cases, from remittances to trade settlement, driven by their speed, global liquidity and ability to bypass traditional banking rails.

One such stablecoin is Tether’s USDT, which is currently dominating the flow.

“Tether is soaking up a lot of the payments flow,” Sully says. “If you want to make a one-time payment into an emerging market, USDT is helping.”

The appeal is straightforward: deep global liquidity and widespread acceptance.

“There is so much global USDT liquidity that people don’t mind sending or accepting it as payment,” he added, “because someone in their country will eventually swap it for dollars.”

That growing familiarity is also shifting perceptions.

Still, Sully frames this trend as a workaround rather than a long-term solution. “This is more of a workaround for these people than a solution for trade finance in general.”

‘A different problem’

The geopolitical backdrop is also producing more extreme signals.

Sully pointed to reports that bitcoin BTC$71,432.52 is being used as a “currency of choice” for payments tied to safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments.

“It shows that trade finance is increasingly being led and managed by non-bank actors and non-bank ways of transacting,” Sully says.

Haycen is positioning itself to capture this shift. The firm issues a U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin, USDhn, designed specifically for trade finance.

According to Sully, “Haycen aims to be the liquidity and settlement layer for non-bank global trade and is currently working with industry participants around the world.” The goal is to streamline a highly fragmented system.

Haycen’s model allows users to deposit funds, transact using its stablecoin, and potentially earn interest, subject to regulatory eligibility, while avoiding the delays and inefficiencies of correspondent banking.

“Funds don’t get lost for seven days. You can log in, see your deposits and counterparties in one place, and settle instantly.”

Unlike most stablecoin issuers, which focus on crypto trading or retail payments, Haycen is targeting a specific institutional niche. “Every other stablecoin business is a payments business or a crypto trading business,” Sully says. “We’re solving a different problem.”

That problem, how to move money efficiently in a fragmented, increasingly de-risked global trade system, may only grow more acute as geopolitical tensions persist.

Ironically, Sully notes, banks’ retreat could accelerate crypto adoption faster than the industry itself ever managed.

Read more: Banks are treading carefully on stablecoins despite market growth, S&P Global says

Polymarket briefly appeared in Google News results before Google removed the links, according to reports. 

The listings showed up beside articles from established news outlets during searches tied to live events.

Google later said the appearance was a mistake. A spokesperson told The Verge, “This site briefly appeared in Google News in error, and it is no longer surfacing in News.”

Polymarket links appeared under mainstream news coverage for event-based searches. One example cited by Futurism involved the query “will ships transit the strait,” which referred to the Strait of Hormuz.

That search placed a Polymarket prediction market near reports from Reuters and The Guardian. Later search on Sunday did not show any Polymarket results for the same query.

The episode drew attention because Google News usually features reports from publishers that cover current events. Polymarket, by contrast, offers betting markets based on possible outcomes tied to those events.

Google has not announced any broader change to its News eligibility rules in relation to prediction market platforms. The available comments only said the listing appeared by error and was later removed.

Polymarket expands through partnerships

The brief Google News appearance came as Polymarket continues to secure distribution deals. Last year, Google partnered with Polymarket and Kalshi to bring their data into Google Finance.

X also named Polymarket its official prediction market partner in June. That agreement aimed to connect market forecasts with discussions taking place on the social media platform.

Other crypto and digital identity platforms have also added access to Polymarket. MetaMask said in October that it would integrate Polymarket, while World App also added the service during the same month.

These partnerships show that prediction market platforms continue to push for wider visibility. Even so, the Google News issue suggests there are still limits around how these services appear inside news-focused products.

Most traders still struggle to profit

Polymarket has gained attention as a growing crypto use case, but trader results remain uneven. Data shared by analyst Andrey Sergeenkov showed that only a small share of users posted strong and steady monthly profits.

According to the data, about 1% of traders made more than $5,000 in profit in a single month. Only 0.015% managed to maintain that level for four straight months.

The same findings showed that just 0.033% of wallets recorded more than $100,000 in total profits. The figures suggest that while prediction markets draw strong interest, consistent gains remain rare for most users.

Trump-linked World Liberty Financial has lost a key backer after its $75 Million DeFi loan tied up user liquidity, with Justin Sun publicly breaking and criticizing the project’s treatment of investors.

“Every action taken by the WLFI team to extract fees from users and to treat the crypto community as a personal ATM is illegitimate,” Sun wrote.

The criticism comes days after World Liberty Financial deposited 5 billion WLFI tokens as collateral on the DeFi lending platform Dolomite and borrowed about $75 million in stablecoins.

The deposit still dominates Dolomite, accounting for a majority of the protocol’s roughly $794 million in total supply liquidity.

At its peak earlier this week, the USD1 pool hit 100% utilization, temporarily locking ordinary stablecoin depositors out of their funds. As of Sunday, the pool had eased to roughly 82% utilization, with about $158 million borrowed against $193 million supplied.

Dolomite co-founder Corey Caplan also serves as an advisor to World Liberty Financial, a dual role that onchain analysts have described as functionally that of CTO. To accommodate WLFI’s deposit, Dolomite raised its WLFI supply cap to 5.1 billion tokens.

“These actions have nothing to do with me. They have nothing to do with the investors who believed the promises this project made,” Sun continued. “We oppose every one of these actions in the strongest possible terms.”

Frozen out of WLFI

Sun had helped stabilize the project early on by purchasing $30 million in WLFI tokens after a lukewarm launch raised questions about investor appetite.

Last September, WLFI froze Sun’s wallet, locking the Tron founder out of 595 million unlocked tokens worth about $107 million at the time.

WLFI said the action was part of a broader move against 272 wallets it linked to phishing attacks and compromised support channels, insisting it “only intervenes to protect users, never to silence normal activity.”

Sun is frames the September freeze as the project’s original sin.

“I am the first and single largest victim,” he wrote Sunday, “as a result of their wrongful blacklisting of my WLFI token wallet back in 2025, that violates basic investor rights and blockchain principles of fairness.”

Sun also took aim at WLFI’s governance process, alleging that votes cited to justify the freezes “were not conducted through a fair or transparent process,” that “key information was withheld from voters,” and that “the outcomes were predetermined.”

Notably, he carefully separated his attack on WLFI’s operators from the President himself, opening his statement by reaffirming that he has “always been an ardent supporter of President Trump and his crypto-friendly policy” and directing his denunciation at “the bad actors at WLFI.”

WLFI’s co-founder Zak Folkman did not immediately respond to a request for comment sent by CoinDesk to his Telegram.

WLFi is trading at $0.079, according to CoinDesk data, down 18% over the past week.

The push to pass the CLARITY Act in the United States is intensifying as lawmakers face a looming deadline to provide clear regulatory oversight for the crypto industry. Senator Cynthia Lummis, among the most vocal crypto advocates in Congress, warned that delay could push meaningful legislation into a distant future, potentially delaying the sector’s growth and investor protections.

In a Friday post on X, Lummis framed the moment as a last chance to enact relief before 2030, arguing that the U.S. cannot surrender its financial future. The comment arrives as momentum for the bill appears fragile amid the upcoming midterm elections in November, which could reshape congressional priorities and slow the momentum around what many see as a foundational market-structure framework for digital assets.

Echoing the urgency, David Sacks, former White House AI and crypto czar, weighed in with a similar sentiment. “The time to act is now. Senate Banking, and then the full Senate, should pass market structure. I’m confident that they will. And then President Trump will sign this landmark bill into law,” Sacks wrote. The chorus from industry insiders underscores a shared view: absence of a clear regulatory path could hobble innovation and investor confidence.

Key takeaways

• Legislative urgency surrounds the CLARITY Act, with proponents arguing that clear regulatory boundaries are essential for advancing the U.S. crypto sector and protecting consumers.
• Timing remains a major question mark due to the November midterm elections, which could shift congressional priorities and slow passage of crypto legislation.
• Support crosses sectors and roles, with influential figures—from venture capital to exchange executives and technology founders—arguing that well-defined rules foster growth and certainty for participants.
• Internal debates on specifics, notably around stablecoin yield, pose potential chokepoints that could affect markup or floor votes in the Senate.
• Regulators themselves have voiced support for a comprehensive market-structure framework, signaling alignment with lawmakers on the direction of regulation.

CLARITY Act as a catalyst for U.S. crypto growth

Industry participants widely view regulatory clarity as a catalyst for innovation. A familiar refrain across crypto circles is that clear rules help both consumers and builders navigate risk, reduce ambiguity, and foster responsible innovation. Chris Dixon, managing partner at A16z Crypto, captured this sentiment in a post, noting that “when rules are defined, both consumers and entrepreneurs win.”

The sentiment extends beyond investment capital to product development and user experience. Robbie Ferguson, co-founder of Immutable, argued that the act could accelerate the sector’s growth trajectory, suggesting that clearer oversight would unlock opportunities for developers and gamers alike. The Web3 gaming ecosystem, in particular, has been a fervent advocate for clarity as a means to scale and protect players and developers in a regulated, trusted environment.

A wave of industry voices has also highlighted how clarity could influence real-world adoption. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong called for moving forward with the legislation after months of delays, signaling that the industry wants a path forward that offers predictability and guardrails for participants ranging from exchanges to resourceful startups. Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal also signaled that progress toward a Senate markup hearing could be within reach, though he cautioned that relief hinges on reconciling disputes over stablecoin yield—a friction point that has lingered in negotiations.

On the regulatory front, the push for a comprehensive market-structure framework has drawn support from prominent regulatory figures. SEC Chair Paul Atkins publicly framed the moment as an opportunity for Congress to “future-proof against rogue regulators” and advance a broad framework that could guide the sector through anticipated changes in technology and market dynamics. His comments align with the broader view that congressional action is needed to preempt ad hoc or inconsistent regulatory actions that can unsettle markets and erode investor trust.

Industry alignment and governance questions

The CLARITY Act’s proponents argue that a clear delineation of which regulators oversee various crypto activities would reduce jurisdictional ambiguity and potential regulatory gaps. The broader market has been watching closely for signals about how the U.S. could harmonize oversight between agencies such as the CFTC and the SEC, while also addressing stablecoins as a critical asset class within the crypto ecosystem.

And while there is broad internal agreement on the need for a clear regulatory framework, negotiations are not without friction. Grewal’s remarks underscored a central sticking point: the yield mechanisms of stablecoins. A resolution on this issue appears essential to advancing to a formal markup in the Senate Banking Committee and, ultimately, a vote on the full Senate floor. The absence of consensus on stablecoins could delay movement even as other parts of the bill gain traction.

Regulators themselves have shown support for moving ahead with clear market structure legislation. Atkins’s comments reflect a shared industry sentiment that well-crafted rules would protect consumers, reduce exposure to rogue actors, and create an environment where legitimate crypto projects can flourish with a clear legal footing. This alignment between lawmakers and regulatory leaders could be a pivotal factor in determining whether the CLARITY Act gains the momentum it needs before the election cycle intensifies partisan debates around technology policy.

What this means for investors and builders

For investors, the prospect of a clear regulatory framework could reduce the legal and policy uncertainty that has weighed on asset prices and capital allocation in the crypto space. A well-defined regime may lower compliance risks for exchanges and on-chain platforms, potentially boosting institutional participation and retail confidence alike. For builders, a clarified map of permissible activities, responsible boundaries, and clear licensing expectations could accelerate product development and drive consumer adoption—provided that the final text resolves disputes that currently threaten to stall progress.

Historically, regulatory clarity has correlated with greater market maturity. If the CLARITY Act eventually becomes law, it could set a precedent for how the United States addresses both innovation and risk in digital assets. The timing, however, remains a crucial variable. With midterm elections looming, lawmakers may prioritize other issues, potentially delaying a milestone for the industry. Yet the breadth of support—from venture capital to founders of major crypto projects—signals a broad desire to move beyond debate and toward a functional framework that aligns incentives across the ecosystem.

What remains uncertain is whether the bill can bridge outstanding points of disagreement, particularly around stablecoins, before the Senate’s markup and subsequent floor vote. If those gaps persist, momentum may stall even as other provisions gain traction. Investors should monitor not only the political timetable but also the evolving stance of regulators on the practicalities of stability mechanisms and how they intersect with market structure legislation.

Beyond the U.S., observers note that global regulatory conversations increasingly mirror the desire for clarity and predictability. For markets that operate across borders, a clear U.S. standard could influence international norms, encouraging harmonization or at least mutual recognition of compliant activities. As the CLARITY Act advances, market participants will be watching for concrete milestones—whether a markup date, committee votes, or a White House signing ceremony—that would signal a durable shift toward regulatory certainty.

Readers should watch upcoming statements from lawmakers and industry leaders for clues about the bill’s trajectory, including how negotiators resolve stablecoin yield and other technical details. The next few weeks could prove decisive in determining whether the U.S. crypto sector gains a clear, implementable framework or faces a drawn-out path to regulatory clarity.

A new push for the CLARITY Act is building in Washington as crypto policy supporters warn the timeline may be narrowing. 

Senator Cynthia Lummis said Congress must move soon or risk delaying market structure reform for years.

Lummis said the United States may miss a rare opening to pass the CLARITY Act if lawmakers fail to act soon. She said the bill may not get another real chance until at least 2030.

In a post on X, Lummis wrote, “This is our last chance to pass the Clarity Act until at least 2030.” She added, “We can’t afford to surrender America’s financial future.”

The warning comes as crypto policy supporters watch the political calendar. With US midterm elections set for November, some industry figures fear Congress could shift focus and slow work on crypto legislation.

That concern has kept attention on the bill’s timing. Supporters say the next few months may decide whether the measure advances during the current session.

Former White House AI and crypto czar David Sacks also called for quick action. He said the Senate Banking Committee and the full Senate should move the bill forward.

Sacks said, “The time to act is now. Senate Banking, and then the full Senate, should pass market structure.” He added that he expects President Donald Trump to sign the bill if Congress approves it.

Other industry voices have also backed the legislation. A16z Crypto managing partner Chris Dixon said,

 “when rules are defined, both consumers and entrepreneurs win.”

Immutable founder Robbie Ferguson also backed the bill. On April 3, he said, “the CLARITY Act will make the last decade of growth in gaming look like a joke.”

Senate progress depends on key issues

Coinbase Chief Executive Brian Armstrong said on Friday that “it’s time” for the bill to pass after months of delays. His comment added to fresh calls for movement in the Senate.

Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal said on April 2 that the CLARITY Act could be nearing a markup hearing in the Senate Banking Committee. He also said disagreements over stablecoin yield still need to be resolved.

Regulators have also shown support. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said, 

“It’s time for Congress to future-proof against rogue regulators & advance comprehensive market structure legislation to President Trump’s desk.”

Large investors are accumulating the TRUMP memecoin ahead of an upcoming gala hosted by President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago on April 28, even as the token trades near record lows and the impending event faces political scrutiny.

Data tracked by blockchain sleuth Lookonchain shows notable whale buying through centralized exchanges. One whale, “8DHkza,” withdrew 850,488 $TRUMP tokens (worth approximately $2.4 million) from Bybit over the past two days. Another address, “7EtuAt,” withdrew 105,754 tokens (around $298,000) from Binance 17 hours ago and currently holds 1.13 million tokens, valued at roughly $3.2 million.

Outflows from exchanges are said to represent investor intention to take direct custody of coins and hold the same for long-term. Hence, outflows are taken to indicate accumulation and potentially reduce immediate sell-side liquidity in the market.

The accumulation comes ahead of an invitation-only luncheon reportedly limited to the top 297 TRUMP token holders, with the top 29 receiving exclusive VIP access to Donald Trump.

However, TRUMP continues to trade at record lows near $2.80, down 0.2% on a 24-hour basis and over 1% in seven days. The token came under pressure this week after CoinDesk reported the Trump-linked crypto venture World Liberty Financial’s controversial lending strategy on the Dolomite DeFi platform.

Meanwhile, U.S. lawmakers have stepped up scrutiny of the Mar-a-Lago event. Senators Elizabeth Warren, Adam Schiff, and Richard Blumenthal have sent a letter to Fight Fight Fight LLC, a Delaware-based entity run by Trump associate Bill Zanker, requesting documents and information on whether Trump played a role in planning, promoting, or financially benefiting from the gathering. Fight Fight Fight LLC TRUMP memecoin in partnership with entities affiliated with Donald Trump.

“It is essential that Congress fully understand the extent to which President Trump and his family are profiting off of his cryptocurrency ventures,” the senators said, adding that “Congress must also take steps to prohibit and prevent these egregious conflicts of interest.”

The probe introduces an additional layer of uncertainty for the token, as regulatory and political risks intersect with already weak price action.

The United States government must pass the CLARITY Act, which aims to provide the crypto industry with clearer regulatory oversight, soon, or risk waiting almost another four years to move the industry forward, according to US Senator Cynthia Lummis.

“This is our last chance to pass the Clarity Act until at least 2030,” Lummis, a well-known crypto advocate, said in an X post on Friday.

“We can’t afford to surrender America’s financial future,” she added. The comments come as crypto industry participants begin to worry that the bill’s chances of passing this year are narrowing, with US midterm elections in November potentially changing congressional priorities and slowing momentum on the highly anticipated crypto legislation.

The former White House AI and crypto czar, David Sacks, also chimed in on Thursday with a similar view to Lummis.

“The time to act is now. Senate Banking, and then the full Senate, should pass market structure. I’m confident that they will. And then President Trump will sign this landmark bill into law,” Sacks said. 

Consumers and entrepreneurs both “win” from the CLARITY Act

Many industry participants have argued that the passage of legislation aimed at clarifying which regulators oversee parts of the crypto industry could lead to greater innovation in the US and potentially increase demand for crypto assets among retail investors.

A16z Crypto managing partner Chris Dixon reiterated that view in a post, saying that “when rules are defined, both consumers and entrepreneurs win.”

A wide range of sectors in the crypto industry expect the move to be positive. 

Web3 gaming giant Immutable founder Robbie Ferguson said just days before, on April 3, that “the CLARITY Act will make the last decade of growth in gaming look like a joke.”

On Friday, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, who withdrew the crypto exchange’s support for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act in January, said “it’s time” for the legislation to pass after months of delays.

Meanwhile, Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal said on April 2 that the CLARITY Act could be nearing a markup hearing in the US Senate Banking Committee. However, he noted that progress hinges on resolving disagreements over stablecoin yield.

Related: CFTC unveils innovation task force members in crypto clarity push

Regulators are also voicing their support for the legislation.

US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Paul Atkins said in a post on the same day that, “It’s time for Congress to future-proof against rogue regulators & advance comprehensive market structure legislation to President Trump’s desk.”

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