Bitcoin Has Exited Capitulation Regime as Momentum Rebuilds: Analysts

Bitcoin momentum is rebuilding, but confirmation has not arrived yet, said analytics platform Swissblock on Monday as BTC tapped a five-week high of $65,700.

“Bitcoin has exited its capitulation regime and is once again inside the transition area,” they added.

Swissblock identified the current area as “where a new impulse begins, or momentum fades back into weakness.”

Where to Next for Bitcoin?

It added that the next test is clear and it needs to “reclaim the ignition line” to push above the “next Inflection point.” “Every sustained rally began with this sequence, but not every transition has succeeded,” it said.

Bitcoin has been in the capitulation zone since early June when it fell below $70,000, having remained below it ever since. It hit a current cycle low of around $58,000 at the end of June and has been trending higher ever since, gaining 12% over the past three weeks, which has moved it into a higher momentum or transition zone.

Is a bitcoin:native breakout on the verge of happening?

Momentum is rebuilding, but confirmation has not arrived yet.

Bitcoin has exited its Capitulation regime and is once again inside the Transition Area.

This is where a new impulse begins or momentum fades back into… pic.twitter.com/m0GBVttR7n

— Swissblock (@swissblock__) July 20, 2026

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CryptoQuant analyst ‘Darkfost’ said on Monday that Bitcoin has spent 95% of its time at a higher MVRV. This metric compares market cap, calculated as price multiplied by supply, with its realized value, which reflects the price of each coin when it last moved.

“This shows just how significantly undervalued BTC is today compared to its historical evolution.”

Meanwhile, crypto trader ‘Daan’ said the $65,000 level has capped price for the entirety of July so far, before adding:

“But I do think the longer price spends here, the more likely the $65K level is to break. Especially with the higher lows being made over the past 3 weeks.”

BTC Price Outlook

Bitcoin was trading at $65,500 at the time of writing, following a 1% gain on the day. It tapped $65,700 in late trading on Monday, which is its highest level since June 15 when it topped $67,000 briefly.

Zooming out shows that the asset remains within a seven-week range-bound channel, but at resistance at the upper bounds of that channel.

“If BTC breaks above $66K, the next key level to watch is $66,700,” said Alphractal founder and CEO Joao Wedson.

“This is the Structural Midline, a key on-chain level from the Structural Market Bands that has historically acted as a highly reliable reaction zone,” he said before adding that bears will likely try to regain control around this area.

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