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Bitcoin holds near $73.8k as Trump bets Iran oil shock will fade fast

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Bitcoin investors face ‘harvest now, decrypt later’ quantum threat

Trump says Iran war oil spike will ‘drop like a rolling stone’ once fighting ends, even as crude stays above $100 and crypto trades through the turmoil.

Summary

  • Trump dismisses Iran war oil spike as budget “negligible” while crude trades above $100.
  • He signals more strikes are possible even as he claims to spare key Iranian oil infrastructure.
  • Bitcoin and Ethereum rally, reinforcing the “digital macro hedge” narrative despite still behaving like high‑beta risk assets.

Trump is again trying to sell markets on the idea that the Iran war–driven oil spike is temporary, even as crude trades comfortably above the three‑digit threshold. In new comments flagged by Jinshi Finance, he told PBS reporters the US is “doing very well” on Iran, calling the budget impact of the conflict “negligible” because Tehran is “involved in terrorism.” He insisted that “once the war is over, oil prices will drop like a rolling stone,” echoing earlier statements that the surge in crude is a “small price to pay” for dismantling Iran’s nuclear program.

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Trump also claimed he has deliberately held back from targeting key civilian energy infrastructure, saying he “left a lot of infrastructure in Tehran” and could destroy the country’s power plants “in an hour” but is trying to avoid a years‑long reconstruction process and deeper social trauma. He added that the US has kept a “100 yards” buffer around “everything related to oil facilities,” and specifically cited Kharg Island, a major Iranian export hub, saying he chose not to blow up its pipelines because “it would take years to connect them.” At the same time, he warned he would still “strike again,” signalling that escalation risk remains firmly on the table.

Those comments follow days of market turmoil as Iran‑related supply fears pushed benchmark crude above 100 per barrel and forced insurers to reprice risk in and around the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has repeatedly framed the situation as a trade‑off, arguing that short‑term pain at the pump is acceptable if it neutralizes Iran’s ability to threaten global shipping and regional stability. For now, that narrative appears to be holding with parts of his domestic base, but it does little to change the underlying reality for refiners, airlines, or import‑dependent economies that are now exposed to higher input costs and tighter margins.

Crypto markets, by contrast, are digesting the conflict with relative composure. Bitcoin (BTC) is changing hands near $73,800, up roughly 5.8% over the last 24 hours, with a 24‑hour range between about $69,460 and $73,770 and turnover above $55 billion. Ethereum trades around $2,200, higher by roughly 6.8% on the day, after swinging between about $2,042 and $2,200 in the same period. That mix of elevated volatility and net gains has reinforced the “digital macro hedge” narrative some funds are leaning into, even as skeptics point out that BTC and ETH continue to trade like high‑beta risk assets whenever energy, rates, or war headlines surprise.

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Will Bitcoin price reclaim $75,000 ahead of Fed rate decision?

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BTC/USDT 1-day price chart.

Bitcoin price rallied to a 5-week high of $74,157 on Monday morning amid institutional and whale accumulation. Can the bellwether climb past the $75,000 psychological support level ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision set to be revealed later this week?

Summary

  • Bitcoin price rose to a five-week high of $74,157 as institutional inflows and whale accumulation pushed the asset higher.
  • U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $2.1 billion in inflows over the past three weeks, while large wallets increased their share of the total supply.
  • Markets are now watching the $75,000 resistance level ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision expected later this week.

According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (BTC) price briefly rose nearly 4% to $74,157 on March 16, pushing its market cap back above $1.48 trillion. Trading at $73,626 when writing, the bellwether now lies 17% above its lowest point this year.

Bitcoin’s price rebound today came as institutions and whales kept buying the dip to bet on the safe-haven asset amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

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Notably, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced back-to-back net inflows over the past three weeks, bringing the total figure to $2.1 billion. The persistent inflow trend has boosted retail sentiment for the token, supporting its gains.

At the same time, Bitcoin’s gains seem to have been supported by whale accumulation. According to on-chain data from Santiment, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have entered an accumulation phase, increasing their share of the total supply to 68.17%. 

This was noted as a “bullish signal” by Santiment, as it suggests that Bitcoin was moving into the wallets of long-term holders.

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Meanwhile, the aggressive buying from Bitcoin treasury companies such as Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy and Metaplanet has also provided a significant price floor. 

In their most recent filings, Strategy has continued its multi-billion-dollar acquisition strategy, while Metaplanet has mirrored this “debt-for-Bitcoin” model to expand its holdings in the Japanese market.

Retail investors have also been rotating capital away from traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and silver into Bitcoin as they prepare for further volatility amid escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran. 

The military escalation and attacks on Iranian infrastructure (such as Kharg Island) have led crude prices to spike to multi-year highs as Iran threatened a total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil artery. 

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For now, a major catalyst for Bitcoin price would be the Federal Reserve rate cut decision scheduled to be announced on Wednesday, March 18, at 2:00 PM ET.

Economists broadly expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady in the 3.50% to 3.75% range, likely maintaining a cautious stance as inflation continues to remain elevated due to the shock in oil prices.

While steady rate expectations have historically tempered the rally of risk assets, Bitcoin’s current momentum and its emergence as “digital gold” suggest that a break above the $75,000 psychological resistance could trigger a massive short squeeze toward the $80,000 mark.

Bitcoin price analysis

At press time, technical indicators on the Bitcoin/USDT 1-day chart also seem to present a bullish setup that suggests a significant trend reversal is underway.

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Bitcoin price has moved above the 50-day simple moving average at $71,164, which is a key psychological and technical level. Last time when it crossed above this trendline back in early February, BTC rallied nearly 33% within a month. 

BTC/USDT 1-day price chart.
BTC/USDT 1-day price chart — March 16 | Source: crypto.news

The 20-day SMA is also on the cusp of completing a bullish crossover with the 50-day SMA, a classic signal often referred to as a golden cross that typically precedes sustained upward momentum.

At the same time, the Aroon lines also added to the bullish outlook with the Aroon Up at 100% in comparison to the Aroon Down at 0%. This is a powerful configuration that hints at a strong emerging uptrend and suggests that buyers are in complete control of the current price action.

For now, the $75,000 zone, which has historically acted as a psychological barrier for traders, will serve as key resistance that would decide the short-term trajectory of the asset. A break above it could embolden bulls to target the next resistance pivot at $80,665.

On the contrary, a drop below the $70,000 support level could invalidate the current breakout and lead to a period of consolidation.

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Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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Bitcoin Hits $74.5K But Futures Data, Macro Signal Caution

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Bitcoin Hits $74.5K But Futures Data, Macro Signal Caution

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin derivatives remain bearish as traders hedge against a price drop despite BTC reclaiming the $74,000 level.

  • Fears of a global energy shortage mount as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, forcing investors into safe-haven Treasury assets.

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed above $74,000 on Monday, following gains on the Nasdaq Index as investors await a keynote from Nvidia (NVDA US) CEO Jensen Huang at the chipmaker’s biggest event of the year, the Nvidia GTC 2026 global AI conference. A drop in oil prices and growth in the US manufacturing sector also helped support risk-on assets.

Despite this bullish background, Bitcoin derivatives suggest professional traders were unfazed by the rally that pushed prices to a 40-day high.

Bitcoin 2-month futures basis rate. Source: Laevitas.ch

The annualized Bitcoin monthly futures premium relative to spot markets stood at a meager 2% on Monday, well below the neutral 4% to 8% range. This lack of enthusiasm has been the norm for the past 30 days, likely reflecting traders’ discomfort as Bitcoin traded down 31% in six months while gold gained 18% and the Nasdaq 100 Index stayed flat.

While it is difficult to pin down the exact drivers behind the price weakness, it can be partially attributed to a handful of events, including the absence of a clear execution timeline for the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Meanwhile, the historic $19 billion liquidation event on Oct. 10, 2025, flushed out over-leveraged long positions and hit market makers’ risk appetite. 

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Furthermore, fears over quantum computing vulnerabilities emerged while Bitcoin decoupled from gold and silver as capital sought safety from the US and Israel-Iran war and signs of weakness in the US job market.

Bitcoin options signal fear despite institutional buying streak

Bitcoin 30-day options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch

The Bitcoin options delta skew on Deribit remained at 13% on Monday, signaling persistent fear that have dominated the market for five weeks. When whales and market makers avoid downside exposure, put (sell) options tend to trade at a 6% or higher premium relative to call (buy) instruments. The recent rally to $74,500 was unable to change traders’ sentiment.

USD stablecoin premium/discount relative to USD/CNY rate. Source: OKX

USD stablecoins traded at a 0.5% premium relative to the official US dollar to yuan exchange rate on Monday, suggesting a balanced inflow and outflow in the region. Heightened demand for Bitcoin usually pushes the indicator above the 1.5% neutral threshold. At the same time, periods of stress typically cause stablecoins to trade at a discount when trades rush to exit cryptocurrency markets.

Regardless of the outcome of the Nvidia GTC 2026 event, investors are closely tracking the development of the war in Iran. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate oil prices held near $95 per barrel after the US struck Iranian military assets late Friday night, while drone strikes reportedly halted oil loadings at the key port Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates, according to Yahoo Finance.

Related: Metaplanet raises $255M and adds warrant structure for Bitcoin buys

WTI oil (left) vs. US 5-year Treasury yield (right). Source: TradingView

The Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important shipping lane for oil, reportedly remains “essentially closed,” causing analysts to reassess the risk of a “prolonged global energy shock.” Yields in the US 5-year Treasury dropped to 3.82% after peaking at 3.87% on Thursday, indicating that investors sought protection in government-backed assets amid the increasing uncertainty.

Bitcoin’s bullish momentum has been supported by Strategy buying 22,337 BTC during the previous week alone, while US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs netted 11,117 BTC in inflows. Despite institutional appetite, the lack of confidence in Bitcoin derivatives is strong evidence that bear-market sentiment is not over.

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