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Bitcoin logs third-worst Q1, Ethereum falls 32%

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Bitcoin quarterly returns: CoinGlass

Bitcoin posted a -23.21% return in Q1 2026 and marked the third-worst first-quarter performance since 2013 according to CoinGlass data.

Summary

  • Bitcoin fell 23% in Q1 2026, its third-worst first quarter on record.
  • Ethereum dropped 32%, also marking its third-worst Q1 performance.
  • Back-to-back quarterly losses follow the October 2025 market peak.

The loss falls far below Bitcoin’s (BTC) historical Q1 average of 45.90% and sits well below the median return of -2.26%.

Only two prior first quarters posted worse performance: Q1 2018 at -49.7% and Q1 2014 at -37.42%.

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Ethereum fared worse with -32.17% in Q1 2026, also the third-worst since 2016, trailing its historical Q1 average of 66.45% and median return of 4.37%.

Bitcoin historical Q1 pattern shows mixed performance across years

Bitcoin’s quarterly returns since 2013 show no consistent first-quarter pattern. Strong Q1 gains in 2013 (+539.96%), 2021 (+103.17%), 2023 (+71.77%), and 2024 (+68.68%) contrast sharply with losses in 2014 (-37.42%), 2015 (-24.14%), 2018 (-49.7%), 2022 (-1.46%), 2025 (-11.82%), and 2026 (-23.21%).

The historical Q1 average of 45.90% gets pulled higher by extreme outliers like 2013’s +539.96% and 2021’s +103.17%.

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Bitcoin quarterly returns: CoinGlass
Bitcoin quarterly returns: CoinGlass

The median Q1 return of -2.26% provides a more accurate picture, showing first quarters tend toward slight losses more often than gains.

Q4 historically posts the strongest performance with a 77.07% average and 47.73% median. Q2 averages 27.11% with a 7.57% median, while Q3 averages 6.05% with a 0.96% median.

Recent years show increasing volatility. 2024 posted strong gains across Q1 (+68.68%), Q3 (+0.96%), and Q4 (+47.73%) while Q2 dropped -11.92%. 2025 saw Q2 (+29.74%) and Q3 (+6.31%) gains offset by Q1 (-11.82%) and Q4 (-23.07%) losses.

2026 Q1 decline follows October liquidation event

The Q1 2026 loss follows Bitcoin’s October 2025 all-time high and the October 10 liquidation event that triggered $19 billion in market-wide liquidations.

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Bitcoin fell from $126,080 to current levels around $66,000, a 48% decline from the peak.

Q1 2026’s -23.21% return exceeds Q4 2025’s -23.07% loss, creating back-to-back losing quarters.

The last time Bitcoin posted consecutive quarterly declines occurred in 2022, which saw losses across all four quarters: -1.46%, -56.2%, -2.57%, and -14.75%.

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Crypto World

X to Label Paid Promotions, Prohibits Crypto Ads in EU & UK

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Crypto Breaking News

X has updated its labeling framework to allow paid promotional crypto posts under a revamped framework, paving the way for influencers and projects to monetize content on the platform while maintaining disclosures. The change comes with persistent geographic caveats, as promotions tied to crypto remain banned in several large markets, notably the United Kingdom and the European Union, where stringent financial-promotion rules apply to digital assets. The policy shift was framed by X’s head of product, Nikita Bier, who described the move as intended to foster transparency and help creators build their businesses on the platform. At the same time, the broader vision around X Money, Elon Musk’s payments initiative for the app, is poised to move from concept to a limited beta in the near term, with a wider rollout anticipated thereafter. Separately, X has signaled plans for in-app trading features, including a Smart Cashtags function designed to support stock and crypto trading within the service.

Key takeaways

  • X has lifted its ban on paid crypto and gambling promotions, but regional restrictions remain in place for the UK, EU, and Australia due to strict financial-promotion laws.
  • The platform now requires paid-partnership labeling and permits third-party compensation for promoting products and services, subject to visibility controls in restricted regions.
  • Promotions for other regulated categories—such as sex products, alcohol, drugs, tobacco, weapons, and certain health products—continue to be barred or heavily restricted, along with political content used commercially.
  • X Money, the planned payments feature, is slated to enter a limited beta within the next two months, with a wider global launch to follow if pilot tests proceed smoothly.
  • The company also plans an in-app trading capability through a Smart Cashtags feature, enabling users to trade stocks and crypto within the platform in the coming weeks.
  • The move underscores X’s broader ambition to evolve into an “everything app” that blends social networking, messaging and financial services, though regulatory and user-experience considerations remain.

Sentiment: Neutral

Market context: The policy update arrives amid heightened scrutiny of crypto advertising and a broader push by major platforms to monetize content through transparent sponsorships. Regional enforcement of financial-promotion rules continues to shape how digital-asset messaging is presented and amplified on social networks.

Why it matters

The change in X’s advertising and sponsorship rules signals a practical shift for crypto projects and influencers who rely on social channels to reach audiences. By enabling paid partnerships, creators can monetize content more directly, but they must comply with labeling requirements that help followers distinguish between organic posts and paid promotions. The absence of a universal global rollout means a substantial portion of the crypto community—especially in the UK, EU, and Australia—will still encounter visibility restrictions on paid content. For advertisers, the policy introduces a structured framework that could unlock new revenue streams while requiring stricter compliance discipline to avoid regulatory penalties.

Beyond monetization, the policy update aligns with X’s broader strategy to build an integrated platform that combines social and financial capabilities. Musk has described X Money as a potential cornerstone of an “everything app” akin to WeChat, a vision that would integrate payments into everyday social activity. The beta for X Money is expected within the next couple of months, offering a testbed for how payments, social engagement and transactions might intertwine in a single interface. If the beta proves successful, the wider rollout could intensify competition among fintech-enabled social platforms and raise questions about data privacy, cross-border regulatory compliance, and the monetization of user attention in a market still dominated by traditional advertising models.

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Even with the removed blanket ban on paid crypto content, the updated exclusions are explicit. Promotions tied to adult services, recreational or prescription drugs, tobacco, weapons and other restricted categories remain out of scope for commercial posts. Political content intended for commercial purposes is also restricted, underscoring a continued tension between monetization goals and compliance with advertising standards. The delineation between what constitutes an authentic, monetized collaboration and what crosses into promotional manipulation remains an ongoing area of governance for platform operators and policymakers alike.

X’s roadmap and what to watch next

The company has flagged a slate of developments tied to its broader product strategy. In particular, the two-pronged push of X Money and Smart Cashtags points to an in-app ecosystem that could blur lines between social activity and financial transactions. The beta timeline for X Money—described by Musk as a limited rollout in the near term—will be a critical test for how a payments feature integrates with social interactions, identity verification, and compliance controls across diverse jurisdictions. Meanwhile, the Smart Cashtags initiative, announced as a forthcoming feature, would enable users to trade stocks and crypto directly within the X interface, potentially expanding content monetization channels while attracting a broader cadre of financial-toward audiences and creators.

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Observers will be watching how these features interact with regulatory expectations in the UK, EU, and Australia, where strict guidelines govern the advertising of financial products and crypto offerings. If X can maintain a transparent, compliant approach while expanding monetization opportunities for creators, the platform could become a more attractive venue for crypto projects seeking to leverage social reach. Conversely, continued geographic restrictions could hamper scale and limit the impact of the new policy on the global crypto marketing landscape.

What to watch next

  • Arrival of X Money in limited beta within the next two months, with early user feedback and merchant adoption metrics to follow.
  • Rollout and user uptake of Smart Cashtags for in-app trading of stocks and crypto, along with regulatory confirmations on feasibility.
  • Regulatory developments in the UK, EU, and Australia that could alter the visibility of paid crypto promotions and influencer partnerships.
  • Disclosures and labeling practices by creators, including verification mechanisms to ensure compliance with the paid partnership framework.

Sources & verification

  • Paid partnerships policy page: https://help.x.com/en/rules-and-policies/paid-partnerships-policy
  • Nikita Bier’s statement tweet: https://twitter.com/nikitabier/status/2028172473624395976?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
  • X Money external beta article: https://cointelegraph.com/news/elon-musk-x-money-external-beta-live-next-1-2-months
  • X Money Smart Cashtags in-app trading article: https://cointelegraph.com/news/x-nikita-bier-in-app-trading-couple-weeks

X’s paid partnerships for crypto content: policy, roadmap and regulatory caveats

X recently updated its approach to paid promotional content related to crypto, introducing a formal framework that requires partnerships to be labeled as such and to comply with a set of visibility rules. While the update loosens the previous blanket restrictions on crypto promotion, it simultaneously narrows the field by excluding promotions in regions with stringent financial-promotion laws. The practical effect is a more transparent promotional environment for creators on X, coupled with a robust set of regional constraints intended to protect users from misleading or undisclosed endorsements.

The centerpiece of the change is a paid partnership mechanism designed to give influencers and brands a clear path to monetize their crypto content, provided they disclose sponsorships and adhere to platform policies. As part of this approach, X allows partnerships to be blocked or hidden in the UK, EU, and Australia, reflecting the realities of global compliance regimes that govern digital asset advertising. This creates a bifurcated experience for users: audiences in permissive markets may see promoted content more readily, while users in restricted zones will encounter limited visibility or no exposure to paid crypto promotions at all.

Beyond the policy mechanics, the platform continues to restrict the promotion of certain product categories even as it expands opportunities for crypto creators. The updated exclusions include sex products and services, alcohol, dating platforms, recreational and prescription drugs, health and wellness supplements, tobacco, and weapons. Content that involves politics or social issues remains off-limits when used for commercial purposes, underscoring ongoing considerations about the lines between free expression, advertising, and user trust. These guardrails aim to balance monetization with consumer protection and regulatory compliance, a tightrope that several social platforms are navigating in real time.

The public-facing rationale behind these changes centers on encouraging a healthier ecosystem of creators who can monetize their work while maintaining transparency with their followers. Bier’s commentary, captured in a widely circulated post, emphasizes that paid partnerships should reflect authentic collaboration and be labeled clearly to preserve the integrity of the platform. The overarching narrative is one of experimentation, with X seeking to merge social activity with financial services in a manner that remains compliant with a patchwork of regulatory environments around the world.

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As X presses ahead with its “everything app” ambitions, the fate of crypto monetization on the platform will likely hinge on regulatory clarity and the ability of creators to build sustainable businesses under the new labeling regime. The platform’s bet is that a structured, transparent recruitment of paid promotions will reduce the ambiguity that often surrounds influencer campaigns, while the planned introduction of X Money and Smart Cashtags could create new pathways for engagement, liquidity and value capture within the X ecosystem. The coming months will reveal how these interlocking pieces perform in concert, and whether users, creators and financial services partners will respond with greater adoption and confidence.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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X Lifts Crypto Promo Ban, Allows Paid Partnerships

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X Lifts Crypto Promo Ban, Allows Paid Partnerships

Social media platform X is now permitting paid promotional crypto posts under its updated labeling policy, though crypto advertisements will continue to be banned in several key markets, including the UK and European Union.

X lifted its ban on crypto and gambling promotions on Sunday, enabling industry influencers to monetize crypto content, provided they comply with the platform’s new paid partnership framework.

However, crypto influencers will be responsible for ensuring that partnerships are blocked or not visible in the European Union, the UK and Australia, regions with strict financial promotion laws that represent a sizable share of global crypto activity.

X, formerly Twitter, has long been the go-to platform for crypto companies, projects and communities to communicate.

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X’s head of product, Nikita Bier, said the feature aims to encourage people to build their businesses on X while ensuring they are transparent with their followers.

X said that partnerships are the involvement of a third-party brand providing compensation or incentives to a user, such as an influencer or content creator, to promote their product or service. Users can also flag content as a paid partnership to X.

While the platform’s ban on sponsored crypto posts has been lifted, the updated exclusion list continues to bar promotions for sex products and services, alcohol, dating platforms, recreational and prescription drugs, health and wellness supplements, tobacco, and weapons.

Content related to politics and social issues is also prohibited when used for commercial purposes.