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Bitcoin must retake $75,000 or risk annihilation to $10,000, analyst says

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Bitcoin must retake $75,000 or risk annihilation to $10,000, analyst says

A familiar voice is back with a familiar, and controversial, call on bitcoin .

Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, is reiterating that bitcoin could crash to $10,000.

But this time, he’s framed it with a very clear line in the sand: $75,000.

If bitcoin decisively reclaims and holds that level, the bearish thesis breaks. If it can’t, McGlone’s view is that the path of least resistance is sharply lower, with prices falling all the way to $10,000, the level last seen in early 2020.

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The $10,000 magnet

McGlone’s uber bearish forecast of a crash to $10,000 isn’t new. It’s been circling for weeks, and it is based more on market structure than short-term catalysts.

The cryptocurrency spent a long stretch hovering around $10,000 before the massive wave of fiat liquidity hit the markets following the coronavirus-induced 2020 crash. That era of zero rates, stimulus checks and aggressive liquidity easing by central banks torched unprecedented risk-taking across all corners of the financial markets. It played a major role in lifting BTC permanently above $10,000.

“Before the biggest money pump in history in 2020-21, Bitcoin hovered around $10,000, and it may be reverting. Roughly $10,000 is also the first-born crypto’s most traded price since 2017, when futures were launched,” McGlone noted on LinkedIn.

With that era of abundant liquidity now behind us, McGlone suggests that bitcoin may revert to what he considers its equilibrium price — around $10,000.

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According to him, $10,000 has been the most heavily traded price zone since 2017, when the CME futures began trading. In other words, $10,000 isn’t just a round number — it’s where a huge amount of historical volume sits.

McGlone also points to the crypto market’s explosive growth as a potential drag on bitcoin. In 2017, bitcoin largely defined the space, but today, millions of tokens compete for attention and drain capital away from the industry leader. In his view, that surge in supply has become a structural headwind rather than a tailwind.

“Unlimited crypto supply and use-case rivals are Bitcoin headwinds,” McGlone said on LinkedIn, adding that stablecoins represent “the most enduring trend” in crypto. He expects ether to become bigger than ether and eventually bitcoin.

“I expect the ‘flippening’ to continue, with Tether’s AUM topping Ethereum in 2026 and eventually Bitcoin,” he said.

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The $75K invalidation level

McGlone’s bearish forecast hinges on prices staying below $75,000. This level has been a major turning point for market trends over the past 12 months. The March-April 2025 slide ran out of steam at around $75,000, while the early 2024 rally stalled there. Furthermore, $75,000 corresponds to key Fibonacci retracement levels.

Think of it as a market verdict threshold. A sustained move above it would suggest that bitcoin has re-established strong structural demand, ending the downtrend that began at October highs above $126,000. It would imply that institutional flows, macro conditions, or both are strong enough to override his reversion thesis.

Fail to get there — or get rejected again — and the argument flips: bitcoin may still be trapped in a longer-term decline to $10,000.

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What next as Ripple-linked token dominated by range-bound trade

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What next as Ripple-linked token dominated by range-bound trade

XRP moved modestly higher, but the bigger story is that it still isn’t breaking out. The token is holding above $1.30 and attracting more volume, yet price remains stuck in a narrow range, suggesting traders are positioning for a bigger move without committing to one just yet.

News Background

  • XRP rose 1.08% to $1.3256, with trading volume running 23.4% above its 7-day average.
  • The move came without a clear XRP-specific catalyst, with price largely tracking the broader crypto market.
  • That tight correlation suggests XRP is still trading more as part of a general market rotation than on its own fundamentals.

Price Action Summary

  • XRP moved from roughly $1.29 to $1.33 during the session, holding a modest upward bias throughout the day.
  • Buyers defended dips near the $1.30 area, helping establish a sequence of higher lows.
  • Breakout attempts near $1.33 were met with selling, keeping price capped despite heavier activity.
  • Late-session trade stabilized in a tight band, pointing to consolidation rather than expansion.

Technical Analysis

  • The main takeaway is that XRP is holding support, but still lacks the momentum needed to break clear of its range.
  • Volume has picked up, which suggests growing participation, but the limited price response shows that conviction is still mixed.
  • The structure has improved at the margin, with higher lows forming above $1.30, but overhead supply is still keeping a lid on price.
  • That leaves XRP in a compression phase, where the range tightens and pressure builds until one side gives way.

What traders say is next?

  • Traders are watching the $1.30-$1.32 zone as the floor that needs to hold to preserve the current setup.
  • On the upside, XRP needs to clear the $1.33-$1.35 area before traders start looking for a stronger move higher.
  • Until then, the token remains range-bound, with a breakout or breakdown likely to determine the next meaningful directional move.

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Jack Dorsey’s Bitchat removed from Apple App Store in China over violations

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Jack Dorsey’s Bitchat removed from Apple App Store in China over violations

Jack Dorsey developed decentralized messaging app Bitchat has been taken down from Apple’s App Store in China after it violated the country’s internet service regulations.

Summary

  • Bitchat was removed from Apple’s China App Store after regulators flagged it under rules governing apps that can influence public opinion.
  • The decentralized messaging app remains available globally and continues to see rising downloads, with over three million installs recorded.

On Sunday, Dorsey confirmed that Bitchat was removed from the App Store in February, according to a message from Apple’s app review team issued at the request of the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC).

The CAC has stated that Bitchat violated Article 3 of its regulations, a provision covering online services with public opinion or social mobilization capabilities that came into force in 2018. As part of this framework, any such services would have to undergo a security assessment before launch and be responsible for the outcome.

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According to Apple, all apps must comply with local requirements in the countries where they are available.

“We know this stuff is complicated, but it is your responsibility to understand and make sure your app conforms with all local laws, not just the guidelines below,” the Apple review team said, adding that apps promoting or encouraging “criminal or reckless behavior” would be rejected.

The latest disruption only impacts China, and Bitchat remains available across other countries globally.

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Bitchat thrives against censorship

Bitchat has gained attention during periods of political unrest as the app’s decentralized nature allows communication even during internet shutdowns. This also puts it at odds with China’s tightly controlled internet censorship regime.

Data from Chrome download statistics shows that the app has been downloaded more than three million times, with weekly downloads reaching over 92,000.

As previously reported by crypto.news, Bitchat downloads surged in Uganda as locals turned to the app during election-related internet shutdowns. At the time, Nyombi Thembo said authorities had the technical capacity to shut it down.

However, adoption continued to rise, especially as the app was promoted by opposition candidate Bobi Wine as a way to bypass connectivity restrictions.

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U.S.-Iran tensions rise as Trump targets power plants over Hormuz blockade

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President Trump signals final push on US crypto market rules

United States President Donald Trump has again warned that the U.S. army will target Iran’s infrastructure next if Tehran doesn’t comply by April 7.

Summary

  • Trump warned of strikes on Iran’s power plants and infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by the latest deadline.
  • Iran rejected the ultimatum and said it would respond in kind to any attack on its infrastructure.

After attacking Iran’s Ghadir Bridge last week, the U.S. president on Sunday said that further attacks would target power plants across Iran unless the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.

“Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah,” Trump said in a Truth Social post.

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Trump’s latest warning comes as the key maritime passage has remained closed to global shipping for more than three weeks now. Disruption of this vital waterway has led to skyrocketing oil prices globally, as the Strait of Hormuz accounts for roughly 20% to 30% of the world’s total oil consumption and transit.

Since then, President Trump has issued a series of deadlines for Iran to meet his demands to reopen the strait or face devastating military strikes against its energy grid.

During a media appearance following his Sunday remarks, Trump said there was a “good chance” of reaching a deal on Monday, while also warning he was considering “blowing everything up and taking over the oil” if talks collapsed.

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However, Iranian leadership has not softened its stance and has instead warned that it would respond “in kind” to any attack on its infrastructure and would “react in kind.”

“Our armed forces have made it clear that in case Iran’s infrastructure is attacked, we would react in kind […] Our armed forces would target any similar infrastructure that is owned or in any way or manner related to the United States or contributes to their act of aggression against Iran,” Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said in recent comments.

Iran plans to keep the strait closed as it considers imposing transit tolls to compensate for infrastructure damage, according to Mahdi Tabatabaei, a spokesman for Iran’s president’s office.

Tabatabaei said the strait would reopen once a portion of transit tolls is used to compensate for all the damage caused.

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Meanwhile, Gen Ali Abdollahi Aliabadi of Iran’s central military command called Trump’s threat a “helpless, nervous, unbalanced and stupid action,” adding that “the gates of hell will open” for the U.S. leader.

Odds of the US invading Iran spook markets

As tensions escalated, the odds of a U.S. invasion surged to 63% on the platform Polymarket. This is starting to weigh on investor sentiment across markets, including cryptocurrencies.

Brent crude oil, a widely used pricing benchmark in the global spot oil market, remains elevated, closing Thursday at more than $109 per barrel. With trading scheduled to resume on Monday, the latest developments could further pressure markets and put Bitcoin’s short-term recovery at risk.

The flagship crypto has recovered from last week’s lows near $66,000 and was trading just below $69,200 at press time. The total crypto market cap was up 2.2% during the same period.

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The Oil Signal That Preceded Major Market Crashes Since 1987 Is Flashing Again

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A key oil market metric that has preceded major market collapses since 1987 is closing in on its danger zone. 

The crude’s 12-month rate of change (ROC) is now sitting at 91%. Analysts suggest that each time this metric breached 100%, a market crash followed. 

Five Crashes, One Oil Playbook

Analyst and trader Jack Prandelli noted that the pattern spans nearly four decades. In 1987, 1990, the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2022 bear market, oil’s 12-month ROC crossed the 100% line. 

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Oil’s 12-Month Rate of Change Across All Five Crash Instances
Oil’s 12-Month Rate of Change Across All Five Crash Instances. Source: X/Jack Prandelli

The current 91% reading leaves a narrow 9-point buffer, one that may be quickly erased as supply shocks build. Oil prices have surged since the US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28, rattling energy markets and fueling recession fears.

“When oil moves this fast, economies break. Will this time be different? History says no,” Prandelli remarked.

Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, previously noted that when oil prices double within a 12-month window, it may be a warning sign that a recession could follow.

“The rule of thumb I learned from auto industry economics in the 1990s is that if oil prices go up 100% in a one-year period, expect a recession,” he said

Meanwhile, the supply disruption that could push oil past that threshold may already be underway. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which carried roughly 20% of global oil supply before the conflict, has stalled.

US President Trump has issued a fresh ultimatum. He threatened strikes on Iran’s infrastructure if the strait is not reopened by Tuesday. Iranian officials, however, say the waterway will remain closed until war reparations are addressed.

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On Monday, Brent crude climbed above $111 per barrel, up 1.9%. West Texas Intermediate hovered near $112 in Asian trading hours. Amid the surging prices, the question may no longer be whether the pattern holds. It is whether the trigger gets pulled.

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The post The Oil Signal That Preceded Major Market Crashes Since 1987 Is Flashing Again appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Crypto Jumps 2.5% Amid Trump-Iran Deadline Threats

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Crypto Jumps 2.5% Amid Trump-Iran Deadline Threats

Crypto markets bounced 2.5% as US President Donald Trump sent mixed signals over a potential deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, including reports of a possible ceasefire that could permanently end the war. 

In an expletive-laden post on the Truth Social platform on Sunday, Trump threatened that Iran would be “living in Hell” if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened.

However, he also acknowledged in a Fox News interview that Iran is “negotiating now” and expressed optimism about a “good chance” of a deal within 24 hours.

Total market capitalization has climbed about $70 billion, or 2.5%, to an 11-day high of $2.44 trillion in early trading on Monday on the news. Bitcoin tapped $69,500 on Coinbase, according to TradingView.

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The small jump has led to total liquidations of around $255 million over 24 hours, 73% of them being short positions, according to data from CoinGlass. 

Trump’s comments come after more than a month of war, contributing to surging global oil prices that some fear could lead to a global economic recession. 

Trump initially gave Iran a 10-day window to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but his latest post suggests that Iran now has until Tuesday to reopen the waterway, or the US would attack Iran’s power plants and bridges. 

“There will be nothing like it!!! Open the fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH!” he said. 

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Source: Truth Social

A potential deal within 24 hours

Despite the aggressive rhetoric, Trump also acknowledged that Iran is “negotiating now” and expressed optimism about a “good chance” of a deal within 24 hours.

He also said, “If they don’t make a deal and fast, I’m considering blowing everything up and taking over the oil.” 

Related: New Bitcoin price lows ‘matter of time’ says trader with BTC stuck at $67K

A report from Axios, meanwhile, suggests that the US, Iran and a group of regional mediators are discussing the terms of a 45-day ceasefire that could lead to an end of the war, adding further mixed signals.

Oil prices surge, adding inflation pressure

The ongoing war in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed crude oil prices back up to about $112 per barrel on Monday morning. 

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The Kobeissi Letter predicted that if current levels are sustained for another seven weeks, US Consumer Price Index-related inflation will rise to around 3.7%.

Meanwhile, Americans have spent an additional $240 million per day on fuel costs since the Iran war began Feb. 28, it added. 

Magazine: No more 85% Bitcoin collapses, Taiwan needs BTC war reserve: Hodler’s Digest