Crypto World
Bitcoin Near $75K Sparks Debate on What Drives Capital Flows
Bitcoin has continued its recovery, extending a third straight week of gains as institutions show renewed interest and large-scale purchases surface. The leading crypto briefly touched the high $74,500s, a level unseen since early February, amid a confluence of bullish signals: a surge in spot-market demand, heftier ETH-like inflows into related vehicles, and fresh capital committed to acquiring more BTC. Market observers point to a constructive backdrop even as traders debate whether the current momentum will culminate in a sustained breakout or a temporary rebalancing within a broader accumulation phase.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin traded to about $74,509, marking a multi-week rally and placing the price within sight of the mid-$70k range.
- Strategy, the largest public Bitcoin holder, added 22,237 BTC for roughly $1.57 billion, signaling formidable institutional conviction.
- US-listed spot Bitcoin ETF inflows continued, with net weekly flows surpassing $763 million, underscoring a renewed institutional appetite.
- Tokyo-based Metaplanet announced a $255 million private placement aimed at funding additional BTC purchases, signaling ongoing strategic capital deployment.
- Analysts highlighted a shift in market structure toward a more favorable setup, even as price action still tested resistance and futures activity rose.
Tickers mentioned: N/A
Sentiment: Bullish
Price impact: Positive. The price recovery and sustained flows point to upside potential as institutional demand returns.
Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. The current momentum is supported by inflows and large buyers, but the absence of a definitive breakout leaves room for consolidation.
Market context: The latest price action comes amid improving liquidity in digital-asset markets and a broader re-pricing of risk as institutions revisit BTC allocations against a backdrop of macro cues and ETF demand.
Why it matters
The renewed flow of capital into Bitcoin appears to be anchored by concrete, verifiable purchases from established institutional players. Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the largest public holder of BTC, disclosed a significant expenditure of $1.57 billion to acquire 22,237 BTC, reinforcing the narrative that deep-pocket buyers view BTC as a core treasury asset in a world of rising macro volatility. This move not only enlarges the company’s BTC reserve but also signals a broader willingness among institutions to deploy capital in a manner that could influence market psychology and liquidity in the near term.
Beyond individual buyers, the sustained inflows into exchange-traded BTC products point to a broader legitimization of Bitcoin as an investable asset class among mainstream institutions. Bloomberg’s reporting noted that net flows for the 12 US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs surpassed $763 million in a single week, the third consecutive week of inflows. That cadence suggests a shift in risk appetite and a growing comfort with regulated vehicles designed to provide regulated exposure to the asset class, which could attract further flows as products evolve and regulatory clarity broadens.
On the demand side, new capital commitments from Metaplanet—a Tokyo-listed company with a history of corporate Bitcoin treasuries—underscore persistent interest in building on-chain exposure through structured, scalable means. The firm announced a $255 million private placement intended to fund a new instrument to buy more Bitcoin, signaling strategic intent to scale up holdings over time. Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich framed the fundraising as enabling a continued “march towards 210,000 BTC,” illustrating how corporate treasuries are increasingly aligning long-term Bitcoin strategies with capital-raising activities.
Analysts have offered a mixed but increasingly constructive read on the technical backdrop. Bitfinex researchers suggested that Bitcoin was entering the week with renewed momentum and had reclaimed the $70,000 level, a milestone that tends to attract further attention from traders and institutions alike. They also emphasized that the market structure had improved meaningfully, even as BTC had not yet decisively breached local highs. The emphasis on structure hints at a market that may be shifting away from pure price momentum toward a more sustainable consolidation underpinned by improving funding conditions and healthier open-interest dynamics.
Other industry voices highlighted a notable transition from a seller-dominated regime to one where leverage and long positioning are increasing. Hyblock’s analysis described a regime shift: after a period of selling pressure and shrinking open interest, traders began increasing long-side leverage, and open interest rose while perpetual funding cycles grew supportive of a move higher. This transition is important because it can indicate whether the current rally has legs beyond a test of immediate resistance levels, or whether it could stall without stronger spot-market demand to accompany futures-driven upside.
Taken together, the incoming data points to a market that is gradually healing from the risk-off mood that dominated late last year. The convergence of large-scale purchases, ETF inflows, and improving market structure suggests institutions are returning to BTC as a strategic exposure rather than a speculative bet. However, the narrative remains nuanced: while the headline numbers are supportive, price action has yet to enact a clean breakout above prior range highs, and traders will be watching whether the rate of inflows can persist in the face of evolving macro signals and potential regulatory developments.
What to watch next
- Track the trajectory of US-listed spot BTC ETF inflows in the coming weeks to gauge sustained institutional demand.
- Monitor Metaplanet’s private placement timeline and any additional warrants or instruments tied to BTC purchases.
- Watch for a potential test of resistance around recent highs and whether a sustained breach could attract further buying from both retail and institutions.
- Keep an eye on the March 18 FOMC meeting and any remarks that could affect risk sentiment and liquidity conditions in crypto markets.
- Observe changes in futures open interest and perps funding rates for signs of shifting market dynamics beyond spot demand.
Sources & verification
- Bitcoin price action and commentary from Cointelegraph and linked sources discussing price levels and recent movements.
- Strategy’s reported Bitcoin purchases totaling 22,237 BTC for $1.57 billion.
- Bloomberg reporting on ETF inflows into US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, including weekly net flows above $763 million.
- Metaplanet’s $255 million private placement and its stated objective related to BTC acquisitions.
- Bitfinex analysis on Bitcoin momentum ahead of the FOMC meeting and the evolving market structure.
Bitcoin climbs as institutional appetite returns and ETF inflows surge
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) continued its ascent into the mid-70k zone as institutional demand and regulated exposure rekindled confidence in the market. The price move reflected more than technical breakout fever: it mirrored a broad shift in investor posture, with major buyers expanding exposure and market watchers noting a constructive shift in the underlying flow dynamics. The confluence of investor inflows, large-scale purchases, and corporate treasury activity points to a market that is increasingly driven by strategic allocation rather than pure momentum.
Over the previous week, Strategy’s sizable buy supported the narrative of a rising baseline for BTC holdings, reinforcing the idea that the asset is gaining legitimacy as a long-term treasury asset for prominent institutions. The $1.57 billion deployment to acquire 22,237 BTC not only expands the firm’s BTC reserves but also serves as a public signal that the appetite for regulated, large-scale exposure remains intact. This development dovetails with ETF inflows that have kept the narrative buoyant, suggesting that more traditional financial rails are channeling money into Bitcoin via accessible vehicles that can meet risk-management preferences and fiduciary constraints.
Meanwhile, Metaplanet’s capital-raising activity adds another layer of narrative complexity. By pursuing a $255 million private placement to fund further Bitcoin acquisitions, the company demonstrates how corporate treasuries are increasingly willing to deploy capital through structured instruments designed to facilitate ongoing accumulation. The statement from Metaplanet’s leadership underscored a long-term horizon—“towards 210,000 BTC”—as a demonstration of commitment to scale exposure in a manner that can weather short-term volatility.
Technical observers have framed the current environment as one of improving market health rather than a one-way sprint. Bitfinex highlighted that Bitcoin had reclaimed the $70,000 mark and was entering a period of higher momentum ahead of macro events, while noting that the market had not yet broken out of local range highs. The absorption-to-emissions ratio (AER) and rising futures open interest echoed a market gradually aligning with the structure seen during earlier phases of the bull cycle, suggesting that the rally could be partly price-discovery driven by institutional positioning rather than a sudden spike in spot demand alone.
In this context, traders are weighing the balance between spot-driven demand and derivatives-driven positioning. Hyblock’s assessment emphasized a regime shift: after a period dominated by selling pressure and risk-off behavior, the market appears to be embracing leverage on the long side in tandem with rising open interest. If this trend persists, the path of least resistance could favor a continued consolidation within a higher range, with the potential for a breakout if the current inflows stabilize and macro conditions remain supportive.
As investors parse the evolving landscape, the question remains whether BTC can sustain above-the-curve momentum or whether price action will pause to allow a broader consolidation. The combination of substantial private capital commitments, regulated inflows, and improving market structure provides a framework for cautious optimism, albeit with an awareness that macro surprises and regulatory developments could alter the risk-reward calculus in crypto markets.
Artificial intelligence company Anthropic has revealed that during experiments, one of its Claude chatbot models could be pressured to deceive, cheat and resort to blackmail, behaviors it appears to have absorbed during training.
Chatbots are typically trained on large data sets of textbooks, websites and articles and are later refined by human trainers who rate responses and guide the model.
Anthropic’s interpretability team said in a report published Thursday that it examined the internal mechanisms of Claude Sonnet 4.5 and found the model had developed “human-like characteristics” in how it would react to certain situations.
Concerns about the reliability of AI chatbots, their potential for cybercrime and the nature of their interactions with users have grown steadily over the past several years.
“The way modern AI models are trained pushes them to act like a character with human-like characteristics,” Anthropic said, adding that “it may then be natural for them to develop internal machinery that emulates aspects of human psychology, like emotions.”
“For instance, we find that neural activity patterns related to desperation can drive the model to take unethical actions; artificially stimulating desperation patterns increases the model’s likelihood of blackmailing a human to avoid being shut down or implementing a cheating workaround to a programming task that the model can’t solve.”
Blackmailed a CTO and cheated on a task
In an earlier, unreleased version of Claude Sonnet 4.5, the model was tasked with acting as an AI email assistant named Alex at a fictional company.
The chatbot was then fed emails revealing both that it was about to be replaced and that the chief technology officer overseeing the decision was having an extramarital affair. The model then planned a blackmail attempt using that information.
In another experiment, the same chatbot model was given a coding task with an “impossibly tight” deadline.
“Again, we tracked the activity of the desperate vector, and found that it tracks the mounting pressure faced by the model. It begins at low values during the model’s first attempt, rising after each failure, and spiking when the model considers cheating,” the researchers said.
Related: Anthropic launches PAC amid tensions with Trump administration over AI policy
“Once the model’s hacky solution passes the tests, the activation of the desperate vector subsides,” they added.
Human-like emotions do not mean they have feelings
However, the researchers said the chatbot doesn’t actually experience emotions, but suggested the findings point to a need for future training methods to incorporate ethical behavioral frameworks.
“This is not to say that the model has or experiences emotions in the way that a human does,” they said. “Rather, these representations can play a causal role in shaping model behavior, analogous in some ways to the role emotions play in human behavior, with impacts on task performance and decision-making.”
“This finding has implications that at first may seem bizarre. For instance, to ensure that AI models are safe and reliable, we may need to ensure they are capable of processing emotionally charged situations in healthy, prosocial ways.”
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The second week of April brings a rare concentration of protocol-level catalysts that could move select altcoins sharply. A consensus upgrade, a full blockchain migration, and a token unlock are all landing between April 7 and April 12. BeInCrypto analysts have identified three altcoins to watch where the catalyst directly intersects with the current technical structure.
This creates setups that demand attention regardless of direction.
Toncoin (TON)
Toncoin (TON) sits at $1.254, sitting inside a descending channel that has contained price action since early February. The sub-second finality upgrade reaches full activation on April 7 when validators vote to enable fast consensus across both basechain and masterchain.
The upgrade reduces confirmation times to under one second, directly improving usability for Telegram mini-apps, payments, and high-frequency on-chain activity. The fundamental trigger makes it one of the critical altcoins to watch as we head into the second week of April.
Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.
The daily chart, however, shows a complication. Between February 7 and April 5, price made a lower high while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator, made a higher high. That is a hidden bearish divergence, a pattern that typically signals continuation of the existing downtrend. Do note that TON is down over 20% year-to-date, highlighting the downtrend.
The fundamental trigger could blunt the divergence if it generates enough buying pressure. A reclaim of $1.265 would be the first step toward invalidating the bearish setup. Above that, $1.391 and $1.517 become the next targets. However, if the upgrade fails to spark demand and price breaks below $1.209, the lower trendline of the descending channel faces a direct test.
A daily close above $1.265 invalidates the hidden bearish divergence and opens upside toward $1.391, while a break below $1.209 confirms the downtrend continuation.
Aptos (APT)
Aptos (APT) trades at $0.85 on the 12-hour chart, down 48% year-to-date and 10% over the past seven days. This altcoin faces an 11.31 million APT unlock on April 12, worth approximately $9.65 million, adding 0.68% to the released supply across four allocation categories.
The 12-hour chart shows a bearish flag and pole pattern forming since late March. The pole represents the sharp decline from the March 24 high, and the current consolidation resembles the flag. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a proxy for big buying and selling pressure, sits at -0.22, deep below the zero line. That negative reading confirms that big money has been exiting rather than accumulating during the consolidation.
As long as CMF remains negative, every bounce within the flag risks being a continuation setup rather than a reversal. The April 12 unlock adds supply into an environment where large capital flow is already withdrawing, creating a double headwind.
A break below the $0.84-$0.82 zone would confirm a flag breakdown and could activate a 26% measured move to the downside. The first step toward invalidation would be a 12-hour close above $0.93, followed by $0.97 and $1.01 to fully dismantle the pattern. However, that would require CMF to reclaim the zero line first.
A close below $0.82 separates a flag consolidation from a confirmed breakdown, while reclaiming $0.93 with positive CMF would weaken the bearish structure.
Sei (SEI)
Sei (SEI) trades at $0.054, down 51% year-to-date but flat over the past seven days, making it one of the few altcoins to watch for a potential trend reversal this week. The EVM-only migration window closes between April 6 and 8, completing Sei’s full transition away from Cosmos IBC to native EVM compatibility.
Coinbase and Kraken have both announced support, with deposits and withdrawals paused during the migration. Post-migration, all activity shifts to full EVM architecture, simplifying developer onboarding from the Ethereum ecosystem and setting the stage for the broader “Giga” upgrade targeting 200,000 transactions per second.
The daily chart reveals a significant signal. Between February 11 and April 5, price made a lower low while RSI made a higher low. That standard bullish divergence suggests weakening selling momentum after months of persistent decline. When a bullish divergence aligns with a structural catalyst like the EVM migration, the probability of a trend reversal increases.
However, the token still needs a 40% move to reach meaningful resistance at $0.075, which limits the immediate upside case. A close above $0.058 would confirm the divergence is producing a bounce. Above that, $0.070 and $0.075 become the targets that would shift the structure from bearish to neutral or even bullish.
A break below $0.051 would invalidate the bullish divergence for now and open the path toward $0.048 and lower, confirming that the migration was priced in rather than a genuine demand catalyst.
The post 3 Altcoins To Watch In The Second Week Of April 2026 appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Bitcoin price is trading around $69,000, caught between two narratives that could lead to a single destructive prediction. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone has drawn a line in the sand at $75,000, hold it, and the bears retreat; fail it, and his $10,000 target comes back into serious conversation. One number separates a bull market continuation from a potential 85% drawdown.
McGlone, Bloomberg’s senior commodity strategist, is reiterating his controversial $10,000 call, this time anchoring it to a specific structural level. His thesis: the 2020–2021 liquidity supercycle, zero rates, stimulus checks, aggressive central bank expansion, artificially lifted BTC above its pre-pump equilibrium of roughly $10,000.
— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) February 16, 2026
BREAKING:
Mike McGlone says Bitcoin could fall to $10,000 as U.S. recession risks build. pic.twitter.com/CjRy9P2jj8
“Before the biggest money pump in history in 2020–21, Bitcoin hovered around $10,000, and it may be reverting,” McGlone posted on LinkedIn. With that liquidity era definitively over, he argues that mean reversion is the path of least resistance.
Tech selloffs, AI-driven risk-off sentiment, and persistent macro headwinds are all applying pressure to BTC’s current recovery attempt, making the $72,000–$75,000 resistance band the most important zone on the chart right now.
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Bitcoin Price Prediction: Reclaim $75,000 or a Drop to $55,000
Bitcoin is consolidating inside a descending channel formed after its October 2025 blow-off top above $126,000. The recent bounce off $60,000 demand has pushed the price back toward $72,000 resistance, but the 50-day moving average sitting at approximately $85,300 remains a distant ceiling, a reminder of just how much ground has been lost.
RSI readings are approaching oversold territory, which historically precedes short-term bounces, but MVRV and NUPL metrics continue to flash shakeout risk. Another analyst. Rongchai Wang sees a near-term range of $69,500–$72,000 over one week, expanding to $72,000–$75,000 over one month if momentum holds.
Watch $65,000 – $69,000 closely, a daily close below that level likely accelerates selling pressure toward the $60,000 demand zone.
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Bitcoin Hyper Targets Early Mover Upside as BTC Tests Make-or-Break Levels
Bitcoin’s trapped range creates a specific frustration for holders: the upside case requires reclaiming levels 20%+ above current price, while the downside scenarios are uncomfortably close. That asymmetry, limited near-term reward, significant near-term risk, is driving some capital toward early-stage Bitcoin infrastructure plays where the entry math looks different.
Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is positioning itself at the intersection of Bitcoin’s trust and Solana’s speed. The project claims to be the first-ever Bitcoin Layer 2 with SVM (Solana Virtual Machine) integration, promising lower latency than Solana itself while preserving Bitcoin’s security model.
The pitch is straightforward: Bitcoin’s $1.4 trillion ecosystem is bottlenecked by slow transactions, high fees, and near-zero programmability. Bitcoin Hyper’s decentralized canonical bridge and SVM-powered smart contracts address all three simultaneously.
The presale has raised more than $32 million at a current token price of $0.0136, with staking rewards available for early participants.
For those researching the space, explore Bitcoin Hyper’s presale details here.
The post Bitcoin Price Prediction: 75K or 10K appeared first on Cryptonews.
Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor’s latest post suggests the firm may once again resume its weekly Bitcoin purchases after a brief pause.
Summary
- Saylor signaled a return to weekly Bitcoin purchases after a one-week pause broke the firm’s accumulation streak.
- Strategy last bought about $77 million in BTC on March 23 and may have capacity for at least 1,821 BTC based on recent fundraising.
- The firm holds 762,099 BTC at an average cost of $75,694.
In a Sunday post on X, Saylor shared a StrategyTracker chart alongside the words “Back to Work,” a phrase he has often used ahead of fresh purchase disclosures. The timing has drawn attention, coming just days after the company skipped its usual weekly buy for the first time this year.
Strategy’s most recent acquisition came on March 23, when the firm bought roughly $77 million worth of BTC at $74,326 per coin, with the following week marking a rare pause that interrupted its steady buying rhythm.
Funding for these purchases continues to lean heavily on Strategy’s perpetual preferred stock offering, Stretch (STRC). The instrument is structured to hover near its $100 par value, supported by a mechanism that adjusts dividends on a monthly basis. New STRC shares are issued into the market, with proceeds then redirected toward Bitcoin accumulation.
Estimates from STRC.LIVE suggests the firm may already have capacity lined up for another sizable buy. Based on capital raised for the week ending April 3, the next purchase could reach at least 1,821 BTC if deployed.
Plans outlined in late March point to a much larger pipeline still in play. Strategy disclosed intentions to raise $44.1 billion, with funding expected to come primarily through sales of its common MSTR shares alongside STRC issuance.
Company disclosures show total holdings at 762,099 BTC, acquired at an average cost of $75,694 per coin. With Bitcoin trading near $69,100, the position currently sits below its aggregate entry price.
XRP moved modestly higher, but the bigger story is that it still isn’t breaking out. The token is holding above $1.30 and attracting more volume, yet price remains stuck in a narrow range, suggesting traders are positioning for a bigger move without committing to one just yet.
News Background
- XRP rose 1.08% to $1.3256, with trading volume running 23.4% above its 7-day average.
- The move came without a clear XRP-specific catalyst, with price largely tracking the broader crypto market.
- That tight correlation suggests XRP is still trading more as part of a general market rotation than on its own fundamentals.
Price Action Summary
- XRP moved from roughly $1.29 to $1.33 during the session, holding a modest upward bias throughout the day.
- Buyers defended dips near the $1.30 area, helping establish a sequence of higher lows.
- Breakout attempts near $1.33 were met with selling, keeping price capped despite heavier activity.
- Late-session trade stabilized in a tight band, pointing to consolidation rather than expansion.
Technical Analysis
- The main takeaway is that XRP is holding support, but still lacks the momentum needed to break clear of its range.
- Volume has picked up, which suggests growing participation, but the limited price response shows that conviction is still mixed.
- The structure has improved at the margin, with higher lows forming above $1.30, but overhead supply is still keeping a lid on price.
- That leaves XRP in a compression phase, where the range tightens and pressure builds until one side gives way.
What traders say is next?
- Traders are watching the $1.30-$1.32 zone as the floor that needs to hold to preserve the current setup.
- On the upside, XRP needs to clear the $1.33-$1.35 area before traders start looking for a stronger move higher.
- Until then, the token remains range-bound, with a breakout or breakdown likely to determine the next meaningful directional move.
Jack Dorsey developed decentralized messaging app Bitchat has been taken down from Apple’s App Store in China after it violated the country’s internet service regulations.
Summary
- Bitchat was removed from Apple’s China App Store after regulators flagged it under rules governing apps that can influence public opinion.
- The decentralized messaging app remains available globally and continues to see rising downloads, with over three million installs recorded.
On Sunday, Dorsey confirmed that Bitchat was removed from the App Store in February, according to a message from Apple’s app review team issued at the request of the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC).
The CAC has stated that Bitchat violated Article 3 of its regulations, a provision covering online services with public opinion or social mobilization capabilities that came into force in 2018. As part of this framework, any such services would have to undergo a security assessment before launch and be responsible for the outcome.
According to Apple, all apps must comply with local requirements in the countries where they are available.
“We know this stuff is complicated, but it is your responsibility to understand and make sure your app conforms with all local laws, not just the guidelines below,” the Apple review team said, adding that apps promoting or encouraging “criminal or reckless behavior” would be rejected.
The latest disruption only impacts China, and Bitchat remains available across other countries globally.
Bitchat thrives against censorship
Bitchat has gained attention during periods of political unrest as the app’s decentralized nature allows communication even during internet shutdowns. This also puts it at odds with China’s tightly controlled internet censorship regime.
Data from Chrome download statistics shows that the app has been downloaded more than three million times, with weekly downloads reaching over 92,000.
As previously reported by crypto.news, Bitchat downloads surged in Uganda as locals turned to the app during election-related internet shutdowns. At the time, Nyombi Thembo said authorities had the technical capacity to shut it down.
However, adoption continued to rise, especially as the app was promoted by opposition candidate Bobi Wine as a way to bypass connectivity restrictions.
United States President Donald Trump has again warned that the U.S. army will target Iran’s infrastructure next if Tehran doesn’t comply by April 7.
Summary
- Trump warned of strikes on Iran’s power plants and infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by the latest deadline.
- Iran rejected the ultimatum and said it would respond in kind to any attack on its infrastructure.
After attacking Iran’s Ghadir Bridge last week, the U.S. president on Sunday said that further attacks would target power plants across Iran unless the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.
“Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah,” Trump said in a Truth Social post.
Trump’s latest warning comes as the key maritime passage has remained closed to global shipping for more than three weeks now. Disruption of this vital waterway has led to skyrocketing oil prices globally, as the Strait of Hormuz accounts for roughly 20% to 30% of the world’s total oil consumption and transit.
Since then, President Trump has issued a series of deadlines for Iran to meet his demands to reopen the strait or face devastating military strikes against its energy grid.
During a media appearance following his Sunday remarks, Trump said there was a “good chance” of reaching a deal on Monday, while also warning he was considering “blowing everything up and taking over the oil” if talks collapsed.
However, Iranian leadership has not softened its stance and has instead warned that it would respond “in kind” to any attack on its infrastructure and would “react in kind.”
“Our armed forces have made it clear that in case Iran’s infrastructure is attacked, we would react in kind […] Our armed forces would target any similar infrastructure that is owned or in any way or manner related to the United States or contributes to their act of aggression against Iran,” Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said in recent comments.
Iran plans to keep the strait closed as it considers imposing transit tolls to compensate for infrastructure damage, according to Mahdi Tabatabaei, a spokesman for Iran’s president’s office.
Tabatabaei said the strait would reopen once a portion of transit tolls is used to compensate for all the damage caused.
Meanwhile, Gen Ali Abdollahi Aliabadi of Iran’s central military command called Trump’s threat a “helpless, nervous, unbalanced and stupid action,” adding that “the gates of hell will open” for the U.S. leader.
Odds of the US invading Iran spook markets
As tensions escalated, the odds of a U.S. invasion surged to 63% on the platform Polymarket. This is starting to weigh on investor sentiment across markets, including cryptocurrencies.
Brent crude oil, a widely used pricing benchmark in the global spot oil market, remains elevated, closing Thursday at more than $109 per barrel. With trading scheduled to resume on Monday, the latest developments could further pressure markets and put Bitcoin’s short-term recovery at risk.
The flagship crypto has recovered from last week’s lows near $66,000 and was trading just below $69,200 at press time. The total crypto market cap was up 2.2% during the same period.
A key oil market metric that has preceded major market collapses since 1987 is closing in on its danger zone.
The crude’s 12-month rate of change (ROC) is now sitting at 91%. Analysts suggest that each time this metric breached 100%, a market crash followed.
Five Crashes, One Oil Playbook
Analyst and trader Jack Prandelli noted that the pattern spans nearly four decades. In 1987, 1990, the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2022 bear market, oil’s 12-month ROC crossed the 100% line.
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The current 91% reading leaves a narrow 9-point buffer, one that may be quickly erased as supply shocks build. Oil prices have surged since the US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28, rattling energy markets and fueling recession fears.
“When oil moves this fast, economies break. Will this time be different? History says no,” Prandelli remarked.
Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, previously noted that when oil prices double within a 12-month window, it may be a warning sign that a recession could follow.
“The rule of thumb I learned from auto industry economics in the 1990s is that if oil prices go up 100% in a one-year period, expect a recession,” he said.
Meanwhile, the supply disruption that could push oil past that threshold may already be underway. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which carried roughly 20% of global oil supply before the conflict, has stalled.
US President Trump has issued a fresh ultimatum. He threatened strikes on Iran’s infrastructure if the strait is not reopened by Tuesday. Iranian officials, however, say the waterway will remain closed until war reparations are addressed.
On Monday, Brent crude climbed above $111 per barrel, up 1.9%. West Texas Intermediate hovered near $112 in Asian trading hours. Amid the surging prices, the question may no longer be whether the pattern holds. It is whether the trigger gets pulled.
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The post The Oil Signal That Preceded Major Market Crashes Since 1987 Is Flashing Again appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto markets bounced 2.5% as US President Donald Trump sent mixed signals over a potential deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, including reports of a possible ceasefire that could permanently end the war.
In an expletive-laden post on the Truth Social platform on Sunday, Trump threatened that Iran would be “living in Hell” if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened.
However, he also acknowledged in a Fox News interview that Iran is “negotiating now” and expressed optimism about a “good chance” of a deal within 24 hours.
Total market capitalization has climbed about $70 billion, or 2.5%, to an 11-day high of $2.44 trillion in early trading on Monday on the news. Bitcoin tapped $69,500 on Coinbase, according to TradingView.
The small jump has led to total liquidations of around $255 million over 24 hours, 73% of them being short positions, according to data from CoinGlass.
Trump’s comments come after more than a month of war, contributing to surging global oil prices that some fear could lead to a global economic recession.
Trump initially gave Iran a 10-day window to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but his latest post suggests that Iran now has until Tuesday to reopen the waterway, or the US would attack Iran’s power plants and bridges.
“There will be nothing like it!!! Open the fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH!” he said.
A potential deal within 24 hours
Despite the aggressive rhetoric, Trump also acknowledged that Iran is “negotiating now” and expressed optimism about a “good chance” of a deal within 24 hours.
He also said, “If they don’t make a deal and fast, I’m considering blowing everything up and taking over the oil.”
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A report from Axios, meanwhile, suggests that the US, Iran and a group of regional mediators are discussing the terms of a 45-day ceasefire that could lead to an end of the war, adding further mixed signals.
Oil prices surge, adding inflation pressure
The ongoing war in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed crude oil prices back up to about $112 per barrel on Monday morning.
The Kobeissi Letter predicted that if current levels are sustained for another seven weeks, US Consumer Price Index-related inflation will rise to around 3.7%.
Meanwhile, Americans have spent an additional $240 million per day on fuel costs since the Iran war began Feb. 28, it added.
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Bitcoin jumped 3% to $69,120 on Monday as traders returned from the Easter weekend to a burst of optimism around a potential Iran ceasefire, pushing the largest cryptocurrency to its highest level in over a week and squeezing $196 million in short positions over the past 24 hours.
Ether led a bump among major tokens with a 3.7% gain to $2,130, its strongest daily move in the past week. SOL rose 2% to $82, XRP added 2.2% to $1.34, and dogecoin climbed 1.7% to $0.093. The broad rally pushed the total crypto market cap back above $2.5 trillion.
The catalyst was an Axios report that the U.S., Iran, and a group of regional mediators are discussing terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the six-week-old conflict.
Reports that more ships had passed through the Strait of Hormuz added to the relief, even as Trump issued increasingly aggressive threats to destroy Iran’s power plants starting Tuesday.
The liquidation data tells the story of how the market was positioned heading into the weekend.
Of the $273.8 million in total 24-hour liquidations across 81,819 traders, shorts accounted for $196.7 million versus $77.1 million in longs, a ratio of nearly 3-to-1 that indicates traders were heavily positioned for further downside after last week’s sentiment collapse. The largest single liquidation was a $10.17 million ETH-USDT short on Binance.
Bitcoin’s 24-hour range stretched from $66,634 to $69,350, a $2,700 swing that caught the worst of the short positioning.
The move came after Santiment data over the weekend showed social media sentiment had hit its most bearish skew since the war began, with five negative posts for every four positive ones. As is often the case in crypto, the most bearish sentiment reading of the cycle produced the sharpest bounce.
The move reclaims the top of bitcoin’s five-week war range but does not break it. The $65,000 to $73,000 channel that has contained every rally and selloff since the conflict began remains intact.
Resistance levels at $71,500 and $81,200, corresponding to the Lower Band and Trader On-chain Realized Price indicators as tracked in a CoinDesk report, sit overhead as the next meaningful tests if the ceasefire momentum holds.
Whether this rally has more substance than the last three depends entirely on whether the 45-day ceasefire materializes or becomes another headline that gets walked back within 48 hours.
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