Crypto World
Bitcoin Nears $74K as Data Signals Bear Market Isn’t Over
Bitcoin extended gains above $73,000 on Friday, stabilizing near a long-standing floor around $70,000 as macro data and geopolitical tensions shape risk appetite. The move followed a US GDP release showing the economy grew just 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025, keeping recession fears on the radar into 2026 and complicating the Federal Reserve’s policy path. A surge in energy markets, with oil hovering near $119.50 a barrel amid ongoing Middle East tensions, added to the backdrop of inflation concerns. Against that backdrop, institutional appetite for crypto exposure remained evident as spot BTC ETFs registered ongoing inflows, signaling a persistent but cautious demand from a risk-off to risk-on rotation.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin clears the $73,000 level and holds the 70,000 area as weak US data and geopolitical tensions weigh on risk assets.
- The 50-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 sits near 84%, complicating BTC’s role as a hedge in a slowing economy.
- Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows persisted for four consecutive days, totaling about $583 million, but price action cooled as flows reversed in the following days.
- Oil prices surge to around $119.50, adding inflationary pressure and potentially constraining retail crypto investment amid higher energy costs.
- Corporate exposure remains a factor, with MicroStrategy (MSTR) reported to have accumulated substantial exposure via a yield-bearing STRC instrument, underscoring continued institutional nuance in crypto demand.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $MSTR, $STRC
Sentiment: Neutral
Price impact: Neutral. The move higher reflects continued demand in a risk-off to risk-on rotation, but broader macro headwinds keep the path forward uncertain.
Market context: The latest price action sits within a broader environment of rising yields, stickier inflation concerns, and mixed liquidity signals. Traders are weighing softening domestic growth against geopolitical frictions that keep energy prices elevated and risk sentiment bifurcated across traditional equities and crypto assets.
Why it matters
The ongoing tension between weak macro growth and available liquidity underscores a delicate balance for crypto markets. Bitcoin’s recent momentum suggests that investors remain willing to allocate capital to scarce assets even as the macro picture remains unsettled. Yet the backdrop of a 0.7% expansion in US Q4 2025 and a 4.26% yield on the 10-year Treasury signals a high-stakes environment where risk assets can swing on every new data point. The observed correlation with major equity indices, particularly the Nasdaq, indicates that BTC is not operating in a vacuum and that cross-asset risk considerations continue to mold price action.
Institutional demand also remains a central theme. The presence of spot BTC ETF inflows points to a structural interest in crypto exposure among larger investors, even as price-driven dynamics can erode or amplify those inflows in the short term. The anecdote about MicroStrategy’s exposure via a yield-bearing instrument further highlights how corporate balance sheets are increasingly intersecting with digital-asset dynamics. For market participants, this blend of macro headwinds, policy moves, and institutional involvement means crypto markets could remain sensitive to shifts in liquidity and regulatory signals while pursuing longer-term diversification goals.
Finally, energy markets and inflationary pressures cannot be ignored. With oil costs holding at elevated levels, consumer spending and risk appetite are mutually influenced by energy prices, which can indirectly affect asset classes including crypto. The convergence of these forces—macro data, geopolitical risk, and institutional activity—helps explain why BTC has shown resilience yet remains encased in a broader trend that favors caution rather than a straightforward breakout.
What to watch next
- Whether BTC can sustain a move above $70,000 and test higher levels, or if price action prints new tests around earlier consolidation ranges such as $64,000.
- Upcoming macro releases, including quarterly GDP updates and inflation data, that could recalibrate bets on rate paths and risk appetite across assets.
- Trends in spot BTC ETF inflows to determine whether fresh liquidity returns or remains episodic, and how that interacts with price action.
- Energy-market developments and geopolitical headlines that could further influence energy prices and the macro backdrop for crypto investments.
Sources & verification
- US Commerce Department GDP release for Q4 2025 and subsequent revisions.
- TradingView charts showing US 10-year Treasury yields and BTC/USD price movements.
- CoinGlass data on US-listed spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows.
- Public policy announcements related to energy purchases (e.g., Russian oil) and related market reactions.
- Market commentary mentioning MicroStrategy (MSTR) and the yield-bearing STRC instrument.
Market reaction and key details
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) traded with renewed vigor after crossing the $73,000 mark, a milestone that reinforced a weekly floor just above $70,000. The move occurred in a backdrop of softer-than-expected US growth, with the Commerce Department’s fourth-quarter figures showing a 0.7% expansion, a pace that traders interpreted as a potential prelude to a longer horizon of accommodative or selective tightening by policymakers. Alongside the growth data, the benchmark 10-year yield rose to 4.26%, signaling that investors demanded higher compensation for risk as liquidity conditions evolved. The combination of weaker growth signals and higher yields often tilts capital toward scarce assets, a dynamic that has historically supported non-yielding stores of value like BTC in times of macro uncertainty.
Oil markets moved in tandem with these macro shifts, with West Texas Intermediate futures touching levels near $119.50 per barrel as the market digested policy moves and regional tensions. A notable development cited by policymakers involved the temporary authorization of purchasing Russian oil stranded at sea—a move that briefly tempered risk-on impulses but also underscored the fragility of energy markets in an age of geopolitical risk. Against this backdrop, equities fluctuated, with the S&P 500 futures retreating to updated lows as energy prices spiked, only to rebound in subsequent sessions as risk sentiment stabilized to some degree.
From an institutional standpoint, the appetite for Bitcoin exposure remained evident through ETF flows. Reports indicate four consecutive days of net inflows into spot BTC ETFs, totaling approximately $583 million, highlighting ongoing demand from regulated investment vehicles. Yet, the price reaction in the following days suggested that such inflows may be more reflective of price-driven positioning rather than a deterministic signal for sustained upside. In parallel, attention to corporate crypto bets persisted, with MicroStrategy (MSTR) reportedly accumulating substantial exposure via a yield-bearing_STR_C instrument, illustrating how large corporate entities are integrating digital assets into their treasury strategies—even amid a broader market backdrop that remains cautious and data-dependent.
The price action also reaffirmed a relatively high correlation with tech equities, with Bitcoin’s 50-day correlation to the Nasdaq 100 hovering in the upper-80s. This linkage implies that BTC is not entirely insulated from broader equity dynamics, especially when macro risk remains elevated and investors reassess cyclicality within risk assets. The net effect is a market that’s simultaneously buoyed by liquidity-driven inflows and girded by structural headwinds—an environment where a breakout, if it occurs, will likely require a sustained shift in risk sentiment and macro clarity rather than a single positive data point.
Looking ahead, market participants will be watching how the macro narrative evolves: GDP revisions, inflation prints, and policy signals from central banks around the globe. While the recent activity hints at a cautious bullish tilt for Bitcoin, observers stress that the bear market’s structure—characterized by consolidation and tests of major supports—remains a dominant frame for pricing. Investors should calibrate expectations to the possibility that near-term gains could be scrappy and contingent on a broader realignment of liquidity, growth expectations, and geopolitical risk factors.
The market value of USDC, the Circle-issued dollar-pegged stablecoin, is edging toward a new peak of roughly $80 billion as demand intensifies in the Middle East. Data from CoinMarketCap show USDC circulating supply at about $79.2 billion, a fresh all-time high that eclipses the previous peak just shy of $79 billion logged last December. The climb follows weeks of sustained supply growth, with the metric standing above $70 billion in early February and around $75 billion earlier this month. The widening footprint underscores how liquidity needs are shifting in a landscape where investors seek stable on-ramps and off-ramps amid global macro uncertainty.
In a post on X, Dubai-based analyst Rami Al-Hashimi attributed the surge to a broad appetite for moving funds out of conventional markets, saying over-the-counter desks in Dubai have struggled to keep pace with demand for USDC. The assertion dovetails with a broader narrative about stablecoins increasingly serving as a bridge for cross-border flows in regions facing FX volatility or capital controls. While the UAE’s property markets have drawn headlines for softness, the liquidity angle emphasizes a different use case for stablecoins: a readily accessible, dollar-linked liquidity layer that can be deployed with relatively low friction compared with traditional banking rails.
Dubai property slump may be driving USDC surge
Al-Hashimi connected the surge in stablecoin activity to turmoil in the United Arab Emirates’ real estate market. He argued that Dubai property prices have fallen by roughly 27% this month, fueling a rush among investors to reposition capital into digital assets. He framed the shift as a form of “war panic” and capital flight, suggesting a growing pattern of investors seeking liquidity and exit routes amid local real estate distress. The broader market backdrop is echoed by TradingView data, which show the Dubai Financial Market (DFM) Real Estate Index declining sharply from a peak around 16,800 to roughly 11,516, a slide near 31% in a compressed period. The correlation between real assets and a pivot to on-chain assets reflects a broader risk-off dynamic in which digital currencies are positioned as an escape hatch or hedge in uncertain times.
There are signs that the real estate slowdown is influencing pricing dynamics in the on-chain space as well. Some property listings have begun advertising discounts for buyers who pay with cryptocurrency, with Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) cited as a preferred settlement option in certain corners of the market. The trend, while not universal, illustrates how digital assets are increasingly being used as a shopping tool for large-ticket purchases, even as the broader macro environment remains unsettled. The co-movement of real estate activity and crypto liquidity highlights how capital floods can reallocate quickly across asset classes when traditional channels tighten or become expensive to access.
Beyond the Dubai-specific story, market observers noted a notable shift in stablecoin usage on a global basis. In a development that has captured attention from traders and analysts, USDC is reported to have overtaken USDt (CRYPTO: USDT) in adjusted transaction volume for the year to date, according to Mizuho. The bank’s note indicates USDC handling roughly $2.2 trillion in adjusted transaction volume versus about $1.3 trillion for USDt, equating to roughly 64% of the combined volume. While USDt remains the dominant stablecoin by market capitalization—about $184 billion—the leap in on-chain throughput for USDC points to evolving user preferences and liquidity patterns within the stablecoin sector. The dynamic underscore is that liquidity is not static; it migrates as market participants seek efficiency, settlement speed, and regulatory clarity in different venues.
Taken together, the numbers paint a complex portrait of a market that is increasingly dependent on stable liquidity but is also becoming more sensitive to regional macro events. The growth in USDC supply and the related uptick in on-chain activity suggest that investors are prioritizing predictable settlement and cross-border transfer capabilities. At the same time, the continued magnitude of USDt’s market cap serves as a reminder that the stablecoin landscape remains fragmented, with different assets occupying distinct roles within portfolios and trading desks. While some observers point to a reshuffling of flows toward newer stablecoins, others caution that the sector’s regulatory and counterparty risk remains a central concern for market participants who rely on these digital currencies for everyday payments and liquidity provisioning.
Why it matters
For users and builders, the sustained expansion of USDC’s market footprint reinforces the role of stablecoins as a core liquidity layer in crypto markets. As demand for efficient settlement and cross-border transfers grows, stablecoins offer a familiar, dollar-linked settlement mechanism that can operate 24/7, reducing reliance on traditional financial rails. This can lower friction for institutions and retail traders alike, particularly in regions where FX controls or capital flight concerns drive preference for digital assets.
From a market structure perspective, the shift in transaction volumes toward USDC relative to USDt signals a potential recalibration of liquidity provision and exchange dynamics. If the trend persists, it could influence liquidity strategies on centralized and decentralized venues, affect funding rates, and alter risk premia across stablecoin-enabled pairs. Regulators are closely watching such developments, given ongoing scrutiny around stablecoin reserves, disclosures, and settlement practices. The evolving balance between stability, transparency, and efficiency will shape how market participants price and manage risk in the coming quarters.
For investors and traders, the Dubai-linked narrative adds a tangible example of how macro shocks in one region can ripple through crypto markets elsewhere. It reinforces the view that stablecoins remain a barometer of risk sentiment and capital mobility. As the ecosystem debates the merits of different stablecoins, users will increasingly evaluate not only collateral reserves and mint-and-burn mechanics but also the practical realities of liquidity access, regulatory alignment, and the speed of settlement across borders.
What to watch next
- Monitor USDC supply and market cap updates on CoinMarketCap to gauge whether the $79–$80 billion threshold remains a ceiling or becomes a new floor.
- Track Dubai real estate data and related price movements to see if the recent downturn persists or stabilizes, potentially affecting capital allocation choices.
- Observe any shifts in real-world asset adoption for crypto payments, particularly for large-ticket purchases where discounts could incentivize crypto settlement.
- Follow regulatory developments around stablecoins in major jurisdictions, including disclosures, reserve requirements, and cross-border settlement standards.
- Watch on-chain volume trends for USDC versus USDt to confirm whether the broader volume leadership persists and how that translates to liquidity depth across venues.
Sources & verification
- CoinMarketCap — USDC circulating supply and market cap data: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/usd-coin/
- Rami Al-Hashimi, X post discussing Dubai OTC demand for stablecoins: https://x.com/rami_hashimi/status/2032440070976819590
- DFM Real Estate Index performance data via TradingView: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=DFM%3ADFMREI
- Mizuho analysis on USDC vs USDt adjusted transaction volumes: https://cointelegraph.com/news/circle-usdc-tether-usdt-adjusted-ytd-volume-mizuho
TLDR:
- NEAR approaches a major resistance zone after forming higher lows, suggesting momentum may be shifting toward a potential breakout scenario.
- Market analysts indicate that reclaiming resistance could accelerate price movement toward the $2 region if buying pressure continues building.
- Research projections place long-term NEAR targets between $6 and $18, depending on adoption, tokenomics shifts, and ecosystem growth.
- NEAR breakout momentum is gaining attention as the asset approaches a crucial resistance area following months of downward pressure.
NEAR breakout momentum is gaining attention as the asset approaches a crucial resistance area following months of downward pressure. Market participants are monitoring whether improving structure could trigger the next expansion phase.
NEAR Tests Key Technical Resistance
Recent market activity shows a strengthening price structure for NEAR Protocol after an extended decline. Price movement has gradually shifted toward higher lows. That pattern often appears when selling pressure weakens.
Market data indicates NEAR as of writing trades around $1.34. The asset recorded roughly 3.93% growth in 24 hours. Weekly performance shows a smaller 1.58% increase.
Technical observers note that the price is approaching an important horizontal resistance band. This level previously acted as support before the broader market breakdown. Recovering that area could reshape the current trend.
According to commentary shared by Michaël van de Poppe on X, momentum continues strengthening. The analyst stated that NEAR is attacking a crucial resistance region. He added that a breakout could open the path toward the $2 level.
Market Structure Shows Signs of Reversal
The earlier market structure displayed a prolonged series of lower highs and lower lows. That pattern defined a persistent downtrend during previous months. Several recovery attempts failed to reclaim lost support levels.
More recent trading behavior suggests a different pattern is emerging. The price stabilized after forming a clear base near recent lows. From that point, buyers began producing consistent upward moves.
Short-term moving averages also shifted direction during the recovery phase. The price moved above the indicator after several months of rejection. That development can indicate a transition in market momentum.
Chart annotations further suggest that reclaiming resistance could accelerate price expansion. Traders often interpret such moves as confirmation of a trend shift. Increased participation can follow when those levels break.
Long-Term Projections Draw Attention
Beyond short-term trading signals, broader research reports also discuss future growth scenarios. Commentary referencing analysis from Vini Barbosa discussed projections from SVRN. The report outlines possible valuation ranges through 2026.
The research suggests a base case price between $6 and $10. A more optimistic projection places the token between $12 and $18. Those targets dep`end on adoption and ecosystem expansion.
SVRN’s thesis focuses partly on infrastructure capabilities within the NEAR network. The platform competes among Layer-1 blockchain systems supporting decentralized applications. Developer tools and scalability remain key areas of focus.
The report also references network tokenomics and an inflation reduction decision approved previously. Lower token issuance could gradually tighten the circulating supply. Analysts suggest that reduced inflation may influence long-term valuation trends.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded strong inflows on March 13, adding fresh momentum to institutional demand as market analysts pointed to key resistance and support levels for BTC price. Data shared by Farside Investors shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $180.4 million in net inflows on March 13, 2026.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue inflow streak
The funds extended a streak of positive flows after several volatile sessions earlier in the month.The largest share of inflows came from BlackRock’s IBIT, which added $143.6 million. Fidelity’s FBTC followed with $23.2 million, while Bitwise’s BITB recorded $3.1 million. ARK Invest’s ARKB posted $2.4 million, and VanEck’s HODL brought in $8.1 million.
Other Bitcoin ETFs reported no daily inflows, including Grayscale’s GBTC, Invesco’s BTCO, and Franklin Templeton’s EZBC. The latest figures from Farside UK reflect a rebound in ETF demand after significant outflows earlier in March. On March 6, spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively recorded $348.9 million in outflows.
The flows later turned positive, with $167.1 million in inflows on March 9 and $246.9 million on March 10, before moderating to $53.8 million on March 12. Since launch, cumulative inflows remain heavily concentrated in a few products. BlackRock’s IBIT has attracted more than $63 billion, while Fidelity’s FBTC has gathered nearly $11 billion, according to the totals displayed in the dataset.
Analysts remain optimistic on BTC price
At the same time, analysts are closely watching Bitcoin’s technical structure. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez said Bitcoin has entered a “low-resistance zone,” suggesting the asset could move higher with relatively limited selling pressure.
“Bitcoin $BTC has entered a low-resistance zone, with little standing in the way until $82,045,” Martinez wrote. He added, “Meanwhile, the key support floor sits at $66,898.”
A chart shared by crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe shows Bitcoin trading around $71,720 on the 4-hour timeframe after rebounding from earlier March lows. The chart highlights a higher-low structure forming near $65,117, which Poppe described as a support level the market continues to hold.
Above the current price range, the chart marks a potential resistance band between $76,604 and $79,127, while a broader upside target zone sits near $80,646. The technical setup also shows Bitcoin reclaiming a short-term moving average after a series of consolidations.
Poppe described the recent price move as typical end-of-week volatility.“Classic price action on a Friday afternoon on #Bitcoin,” Poppe wrote on X. He noted, “Runs all the way towards the recent high, takes liquidity and inverses.”
Poppe added that he would be watching the next few sessions closely as he expects fresh highs soon. “Would be interested to see how this develops coming days, but would suggest that we’re going to attack the highs again in next two weeks.”
BlackRock digital assets head Robert Mitchnick said Bitcoin and Ethereum remain the only two cryptocurrencies attracting meaningful investor demand.
Summary
- BlackRock says Bitcoin and Ethereum dominate investor demand.
- IBIT saw $26B inflows in 2025 despite Bitcoin’s price decline.
- ETH staking ETF aims to add yield to ether exposure.
This comes as the asset manager evaluates future ETF products. Speaking on CNBC following the launch of BlackRock’s ETHB staked ether ETF, Mitchnick stated Bitcoin commands approximately 60% of crypto market share while Ethereum holds the low teens.
The comments come as BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF recorded $26 billion in inflows during 2025 despite Bitcoin falling nearly 50% from its October all-time high.
IBIT ranked fourth globally for ETF inflows last year, becoming the only product in the top 20 to post positive flows while delivering negative price returns.
Year-to-date flows for IBIT remain slightly positive, with approximately 90% of the investor base maintaining steady accumulation patterns through the drawdown.
Bitcoin and Ethereum dominate investor allocation decisions
Mitchnick described Bitcoin as a “digital gold emerging monetary alternative” while calling Ethereum as “a technology centric bet around blockchain innovation and the various use cases of ether and digital assets.”
The distinction decides how investors approach portfolio allocations, with Ethereum exposure aligning more closely with technology and venture equity allocations.
BlackRock’s ETHA became the third-fastest ETF in history to reach $10 billion in assets under management, trailing only IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC.
The newly launched ETHB adds staking yield to spot ether exposure, addressing what Mitchnick called a “limitation” in original ether ETF products that lacked yield capture mechanisms.
The staking feature makes ETHB “much closer, like the Bitcoin ETPs were, to a silver bullet for a lot of investors in terms of a super convenient exposure vehicle,” Mitchnick said.
Long-term investors drive Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF flows
Retail investors and financial advisors comprise the majority of ETF demand, with both segments showing opportunistic buying during price declines.
Hedge funds account for roughly 10% of flows, primarily running basis trades that go long ETFs while shorting futures contracts. These trades remain neutral for Bitcoin’s price but create flow volatility when basis spreads compress.
Mitchnick noted BlackRock sees “pockets of interest” in other crypto assets but maintains a “discerning approach” to product expansion.
The firm continues evaluating assets as liquidity, scale, and use cases develop, but Bitcoin and Ethereum remain where investor interest concentrates overwhelmingly.
The market capitalization of the USDC stablecoin is approaching a record high near $80 billion as demand surges in the Middle East, with one analyst linking the spike to capital flight from the United Arab Emirates.
According to data from CoinMarketCap, USDC (USDC)’s circulating supply has risen to roughly $79.2 billion, marking a new all-time high for the dollar-pegged stablecoin. The stablecoin’s market cap previously hit a high of below $79 billion in December last year.
The increase comes after supply expanded by billions of dollars in recent weeks. The stablecoin’s market cap stood at just over $70 billion in early February and at $75 billion earlier this month.
Self-proclaimed Dubai-based analyst Rami Al-Hashimi claimed the surge reflects growing demand from investors seeking to move funds out of traditional markets. In a Friday post on X, Al-Hashimi said over-the-counter (OTC) desks in Dubai have struggled to meet demand for the stablecoin.
Related: Stablecoins could form backbone of global payments in 10 years: Billionaire
Dubai property slump may be driving USDC surge
Al-Hashimi tied the surge in stablecoin demand to turmoil in the UAE’s real estate market. The analyst claimed property prices in Dubai have fallen roughly 27% this month, sparking a rush among investors to move capital into digital assets.
“War panic. Capital flight. Sellers are bleeding,” he wrote, describing what he said was a rapid shift in investor behavior.
Data from TradingView also shows that the DFM Real Estate Index, which tracks the performance of listed real estate and construction companies in Dubai, has suffered a sharp sell-off, with the index falling from around 16,800 at its recent peak to about 11,516, a decline of roughly 31%.
Al-Hashimi claimed the situation has also led some property sellers to accept cryptocurrency payments directly. He said certain real estate listings now advertise discounts for buyers who pay using Bitcoin (BTC).
“Pay in BTC, get 5–10% off,” he wrote, adding that the trend reflects growing demand for digital assets during periods of financial uncertainty.
Related: Crypto Biz: Circle stock defies Wall Street and digital asset selloff
USDC overtakes USDt in adjusted transaction volume
Japanese investment bank Mizuho says USDC has surpassed Tether’s USDt (USDT) in adjusted transaction volume for the first time since 2019. According to the bank’s research note, USDC recorded about $2.2 trillion in adjusted transaction volume year-to-date, compared with $1.3 trillion for USDt, giving USDC roughly 64% of combined transaction share.
Despite the shift in activity, USDt remains the largest stablecoin by market capitalization at about $184 billion, far ahead of USDC’s $79 billion.
AI Eye: IronClaw rivals OpenClaw, Olas launches bots for Polymarket
TLDR:
- Bitcoin marked its 2025 cycle top at $126,230 on October 6, starting a 159-day correction phase.
- The 2017 cycle took 1,180 days to reach a new ATH, while 2021 required 1,093 days to recover.
- For the first time ever, Bitcoin reached a new ATH in 2025 without a halving event preceding it.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024 disrupted historical halving-driven market cycle patterns.
Bitcoin correction timelines have historically tested investor patience across multiple market cycles. The most recent cycle top was marked on October 6, with Bitcoin reaching approximately $126,230.
Since then, the asset has been in a correction phase spanning 159 days. Market analysts are comparing this period against previous Bitcoin bear markets and recovery timelines.
Historical data shows earlier cycles required far longer before a new all-time high was reached. Long-term investors continue to track these patterns for perspective.
Bitcoin’s 159-Day Correction in Historical Context
The cycle top for Bitcoin was recorded on October 6 at approximately $126,230. Since that date, the correction has extended to 159 days based on current market data.
Many investors view this period as prolonged, though historical comparisons offer a contrasting view. Prior Bitcoin cycles consistently required far longer recovery timelines before reaching new highs.
Crypto analyst Darkfost published comparative data spanning Bitcoin’s most notable market cycles. In the 2017 cycle, it took 1,180 days before Bitcoin achieved a new all-time high.
The 2021 cycle required 1,093 days to reach that same milestone. The current 2025 cycle, by comparison, has so far lasted only 849 days from its peak.
Looking at these numbers, a clear trend toward shorter cycle durations becomes apparent. The time between Bitcoin’s all-time highs has been consistently shrinking across each major cycle.
This pattern points to Bitcoin’s continued maturation as a widely held global financial asset. For long-term holders who accumulate steadily rather than trade short-term moves, this trend is encouraging. It also suggests that Bitcoin’s recovery pace may continue to accelerate in future cycles.
Halvings, ETFs, and Bitcoin’s Long-Term Supply Dynamics
A key observation in the current Bitcoin cycle is the break from the established halving pattern. Historically, a Bitcoin halving had always come before a new all-time high in each prior cycle.
The 2025 cycle broke that precedent for the first time in Bitcoin’s recorded history. This departure has prompted analysts to revisit traditional assumptions around halving-driven market cycles.
Darkfost directly linked this pattern disruption to the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. These financial products introduced institutional demand that did not follow traditional halving-driven market cycles.
The ETFs altered the timing dynamics that many traders and analysts had previously relied on. As a result, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high without waiting for a halving event to serve as a catalyst.
Despite the disrupted pattern, the halving continues to play a role in Bitcoin’s broader supply picture. Each halving reduces the rate of new Bitcoin issuance, gradually cutting the selling pressure from miners.
Over extended periods, this steady reduction in supply decreases Bitcoin’s overall inflation rate. This mechanism remains a structural support for Bitcoin’s long-term price performance, independent of short-term cycle behavior.
A US federal appeals court has rejected Custodia Bank’s final attempt to challenge the Federal Reserve’s authority over granting master accounts, bringing an end to the crypto-focused bank’s five-year legal fight for direct access to the central bank’s payment infrastructure.
Key Takeaways:
- A US appeals court refused to hear Custodia Bank’s final appeal, ending its five-year fight for a Federal Reserve master account.
- Courts ruled the Federal Reserve has discretion to decide which institutions can access its payment system.
- The case comes as more fintech and crypto firms pursue US bank charters and direct access to the banking system.
The US Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit said in a filing on Friday that it would not hear Custodia’s final appeal in a 7–3 vote, effectively closing the case and reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s discretion over who can access its banking services.
Custodia Argued Fed Must Grant Master Account to State-Chartered Banks
Custodia first applied for a Federal Reserve master account in October 2020.
Such accounts allow financial institutions to hold reserves directly at the central bank and connect to its payment rails, enabling banks to settle transactions without relying on intermediary institutions.
After its application was denied, Custodia took the dispute to court, arguing that the Monetary Control Act requires the Fed to provide services to state-chartered banks and therefore entitles it to a master account.
The bank maintained that access to the central bank’s payment system was critical to its operations as a digital asset-focused institution.
However, courts reviewing the case repeatedly sided with the Federal Reserve, concluding that the central bank retains discretion when deciding whether to grant master accounts.
denial of @custodiabank’s fed membership & master account on concerns of “safety and soundness” looks a bit absurd right now
custodia was to be a non-lending fully reserved depository with its cash in a fed account. no asset-liability mismatch, no duration risk@CaitlinLong_
— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) March 10, 2023
The decision arrives shortly after crypto exchange Kraken secured a limited form of direct access to the Federal Reserve system.
On March 4, Kraken became the first crypto platform to obtain a master account from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
Kraken’s account allows the firm to connect to the Fedwire payments network, though it does not grant the full suite of services typically available to traditional banks.
The development sparked speculation that US regulators might consider issuing “skinny” or restricted master accounts to crypto firms seeking closer integration with the banking system.
Despite the ruling against Custodia, one judge offered a forceful dissent. Judge Timothy Tymkovich argued that access to a master account is “indispensable” for banks and said denying one is “akin to a death sentence.”
Tymkovich noted that shortly after Custodia submitted its application in 2020, the Federal Reserve initially indicated that the proposal had “no showstoppers.”
He added that he disagreed with the majority’s view that reserve banks have broad discretion over such applications.
Revolut Files Second Bid for US Bank Charter to Expand Nationwide
Fintech company Revolut has filed a new application for a US national bank charter, marking its second attempt to obtain a banking license in the country.
The London-based firm submitted the application to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to establish “Revolut Bank US, N.A.”
If approved, the charter would allow Revolut to operate under a single federal regulatory framework across all 50 US states.
Revolut’s move comes as more fintech and crypto firms seek US bank charters through the OCC.
Recent applicants for national bank charters include Nubank, Crypto.com, Circle, Ripple, BitGo, Fidelity Digital Assets and Paxos, signaling growing interest among fintech and digital asset firms in gaining direct access to the US banking system.
The post Custodia Bank Loses Final Court Appeal Over Federal Reserve Master Account appeared first on Cryptonews.
Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller says blockchain-based tokens, and in particular stablecoins, could power the next wave of global payments within the next decade. Speaking in an interview with Morgan Stanley recorded Jan. 30 and released last week, Druckenmiller framed stablecoins as a productivity boost for merchants and consumers alike, arguing they are faster, cheaper and more scalable than traditional rails. He envisions a future in which much of the payments ecosystem runs on tokenized rails, while reserving skepticism about crypto as a universal store of value. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) remains his skeptical exception, though he acknowledges some niche use cases. Western Union (EXCHANGE: WU) and MoneyGram (EXCHANGE: MGI) have signaled interest in stablecoin settlements as part of their digitization efforts, and the GENIUS Act has provided a regulatory scaffolding for such initiatives.
Druckenmiller—who founded Duquesne Capital Management in 1981 and later closed the fund in 2010 after a career that delivered an average annual return around 30% with no down years—frames the technology as a productivity lever rather than a reform of money itself. In the Morgan Stanley discussion, he highlighted how tokenized payments could streamline processes that currently rely on legacy rails. The argument rests on a simple premise: stablecoins, as blockchain-based representations of fiat, can cut settlement times, reduce reconciliation complexity and lower fees, especially in cross-border transactions. The discussion aligns with a broader industry push toward on-chain settlement experiments by traditional payments incumbents following the GENIUS Act, which established a regulatory pathway for digital asset services in payments and remittance environments.
Druckenmiller’s case for blockchain-enabled payments hinges on why stablecoins might be preferable to existing mechanisms. He contends that even the most efficient card networks and banks face frictions—intermediaries, FX costs, and delays—that stablecoins can help mitigate. When transactions settle on a blockchain-backed token, the same value can move almost instantaneously and at a fraction of the cost, enabling businesses to optimize cash cycles and consumer experiences. The argument is not that every payment should be tokenized, but that a growing portion of the payment mix could ride on tokenized rails where appropriate, with stablecoins serving as the most practical bridge between fiat currencies and digital settlement layers.
In the same breath, Druckenmiller’s remarks acknowledge the political and regulatory uncertainties that still surround digital assets. The GENIUS Act, which was advanced in July and later shaped the regulatory framework for stablecoin-related services, has provided a degree of clarity for firms seeking to offer digital-asset services in the payment space. The interview notes that legacy players—some already broadening their digital-payments playbooks—are testing stablecoin-based settlement mechanisms to improve efficiency in cross-border flows. In this context, Western Union and MoneyGram have signaled their interest in building out stablecoin settlement capabilities, while Zelle and other traditional rails have also been cited as potential participants in future cross-border and domestic tokenized settlements. The broader implication is that the payments landscape could increasingly mix traditional rails with tokenized alternatives as banks and remittance firms explore these options under regulatory guardrails.
Despite the optimism around stablecoins as a payments catalyst, Druckenmiller remains wary of crypto assets’ role as a store of value. He described Bitcoin as “a solution looking for a problem” and asserted that the asset class does not, in his view, perform the traditional role of a stable store of value. The Morgan Stanley remarks echo a long-running stance: he has previously noted that Bitcoin, despite its narrative appeal, has not found him to be a compelling long-term hold. In a separate 2023 reflection, he compared Bitcoin to gold, but he still argued gold’s longer historical track record and brand strength give it a different standing in his framework. He has also stated he does not own Bitcoin, though he acknowledged that the narrative around crypto can generate broader adoption and speculative demand among audiences that value the technology’s promise.
In the broader arc of Druckenmiller’s commentary, the interview underscores a tension within the crypto discourse: utility and efficiency versus the store-of-value narrative. The truth, as many market observers suggest, may lie in a hybrid reality where stablecoins enable faster, cheaper, and more scalable payments for everyday use while a limited set of assets—like Bitcoin—occupies a niche role in portfolios or as a brand-driven store of value for some investors. The discussion also reflects the ongoing experimentation by traditional finance firms with tokenized settlements and the growing regulatory clarity that could accelerate credible use cases in the near term. While the era of universal crypto-backed money remains contested, the stream of high-profile endorsements and pilots indicates a gradual mainstreaming of tokenized payments as a complement to existing systems.
Why it matters
The conversation signals a practical, near-term shift in how institutions view crypto-enabled payments. If large incumbents pursue stablecoin settlements and tokenized rails, the friction points that dog traditional cross-border payments—latency, settlement risk and FX costs—could be mitigated in meaningful ways for merchants and consumers alike. This matters not just for traders and fintechs but for users who rely on international transfers, remittances and merchant payments. It also frames a more nuanced crypto narrative: utility and efficiency can coexist with skepticism about store-of-value properties, potentially diluting pure hype in favor of tangible improvements in payments infrastructure.
For builders and policymakers, the takeaways are clear. Stablecoins are likely to remain central to pilots and pilots-to-scale pathways, particularly where regulatory clarity is present. The GENIUS Act’s framework appears to have provided a foundation for compliant digital-asset services in payments, which could accelerate institutional experimentation and customer adoption. Regulators, meanwhile, are watching carefully to balance consumer protection with innovation, ensuring that tokenized payments deliver on reliability and security without inviting undue risk to financial systems.
From an investment perspective, the emphasis on productivity gains rather than a universal replacement of fiat money suggests a measured approach: a subset of payments-related assets and networks could benefit from tokenized settlement, while traditional assets may persist in parallel. Druckenmiller’s stance reinforces the view that any significant financial-system overhaul would occur incrementally, with stablecoins bridging the efficiencies of digital technology and the stability of established currencies.
What to watch next
- Regulatory developments on stablecoins and digital-asset service providers in major jurisdictions within the next 6–12 months.
- Announcements from Western Union or MoneyGram related to pilot programs or commercial deployments of stablecoin settlements in emerging markets.
- Progress on the GENIUS Act’s provisions and how financial institutions translate them into operational pilots.
- Ongoing discussions on the role of Bitcoin in portfolios and possible shifts in retail or institutional sentiment toward crypto stores of value.
Sources & verification
- Morgan Stanley interview with Iliana Bouzali from Jan. 30, discussing Druckenmiller’s views on blockchain and stablecoins. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJwBpWSSgSg
- Stablecoin yields and the U.S. banking clarity act article. https://cointelegraph.com/news/stablecoin-yields-united-states-banking-clarity-act-white-house
- Discussion of a ledger-based system potentially replacing USD rails. https://cointelegraph.com/news/billionaire-druckenmiller-says-ledger-based-system-could-replace-usd-worldwide
- Bitcoin versus gold comparison and Druckenmiller’s stance on BTC. https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-gold-outperform-prediction-macroeconomist-lyn-alden
- Druckenmiller’s comments on Bitcoin and related coverage. https://cointelegraph.com/news/legendary-investor-stanley-druckenmiller-wants-bitcoin
Market reaction and key details
Note: The above narrative draws from public discussions and published interviews that frame blockchain technology and stablecoins as potential accelerants for payments infrastructure. While Druckenmiller remains skeptical about Bitcoin as a store of value, the broader narrative around tokenized settlement continues to unfold through enterprise pilots, regulatory clarifications, and ongoing industry experimentation. For readers seeking a deeper dive, the cited sources provide additional context and primary-source materials surrounding these discussions.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted their first five-day inflow streak of 2026, tallying roughly $767.32 million for the week and signaling renewed investor appetite for physical-exposure products amid a volatile macro backdrop. Net inflows on Friday reached $180.33 million, extending a trend that began earlier in the week. The strongest day fell on Tuesday, when spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $250.92 million, according to data from SoSoValue. The run mirrors a late-2025 period when five consecutive days of inflows between November 25 and December 2 delivered about $284.61 million in total. Overall, US spot BTC ETFs now hold about $91.83 billion in net assets, with cumulative net inflows reaching $56.14 billion and roughly $4.93 billion in total value traded on the day. Ether-centered funds have joined the move, underscoring a broad shift toward spot exposure even as macro headwinds persist.
Key takeaways
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs logged their first five-day inflow streak of 2026, totaling approximately $767.32 million for the week.
- Tuesday marked the peak with spot BTC ETFs attracting about $250.92 million in net inflows, the strongest single-day figure of the period.
- Ether ETFs posted a four-day inflow streak, contributing roughly $212.14 million in new liquidity and reversing earlier March outflows.
- Cumulative inflows into US spot Ether ETFs stand at about $11.79 billion, with total net assets near $12.26 billion and around $1.30 billion traded on the day.
- Bitcoin remained range-bound as macro tensions influenced risk sentiment, with short-liquidity clusters near $71,300 and resistance between $72,000 and $73,500.
- ETF assets globally have grown to roughly $91.83 billion in net assets, reflecting sustained demand for spot exposure amid ongoing volatility.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $ETH
Sentiment: Neutral
Price impact: Neutral. Persistent inflows have yet to translate into a decisive breakout in price, given macro uncertainty.
Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. Market participants may wait for clearer macro signals before expanding exposure to spot coin ETFs.
Market context: The week unfolded against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical risk and energy-price volatility, factors that have historically weighed on risk appetite. Analysts note that tensions in the Middle East and pressure on oil markets can dampen aggressive rate-cut expectations, pushing traders toward liquidity and near-term catalysts rather than long-horizon bets. In this environment, Bitcoin and Ether ETFs have shown resilience through inflows that suggest ongoing demand for regulated, transparent access to spot crypto markets.
Why it matters
The resurgence of inflows into US spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs signals a maturation in the market for regulated crypto exposure. Institutional and retail investors alike have sought regulated vehicles to gain direct crypto exposure without taking on the operational complexities of self-custody, and the latest weekly totals reinforce that demand. The breadth of the inflows—across BTC and ETH—also points to a broader appetite for the two largest by market cap assets, suggesting that current price action may reflect a shift toward accumulation rather than mere tactical trading.
From a price-discovery perspective, sustained ETF liquidity contributes to transparent flows and on-chain price signaling, potentially narrowing the gap between futures dynamics and spot realities. Yet the macro environment—characterized by geopolitical tensions, oil-price volatility, and a wary risk sentiment—continues to cap upside momentum. Traders appear to be prioritizing liquidity and risk management over bold directional bets, keeping BTC in a defined range while Ether fans out similar patterns of activity. The balance between inflows and macro headwinds will likely dictate whether the current pattern of consolidation evolves into a more pronounced move in the coming weeks.
As the data indicate, the market is moving with a preference for regulated, auditable exposure. The ongoing inflows into spot ETFs reduce the opacity of price discovery and may attract a broader pool of buyers who previously steered clear of crypto markets due to custody or regulatory concerns. The broader implications are not limited to price; potential implications for product development, ETF approvals, and the regulatory narrative around crypto exposure could shape investor behavior in the months ahead.
Additionally, observers note that the market is watching liquidity dynamics closely. On the risk-off side, the macro environment has created a structure where support levels and liquidity zones matter as much as absolute price levels. The trading community is digesting the possibility that macro catalysts—such as inflation data or central-bank commentary—could trigger a shift from the current consolidation toward a new regime of volatility or trend direction.
For readers looking for broader context, references to market-related analyses such as Bitcoin’s price catalysts and Ethereum momentum are explored in industry discussions, including pieces like “Bitcoin’s ‘narrative vacuum,’ Ethereum now inevitable: Trade Secrets.”
What to watch next
- Next week’s BTC and ETH ETF inflows, and whether the five-day BTC streak extends or reverses.
- Key resistance around $71,300 and the $72,000–$73,500 zone, and whether a break above or below these levels alters risk sentiment.
- Changes in daily liquidity and trading volumes for spot ETFs as macro indicators (inflation, jobs, geopolitical updates) evolve.
- Continued net asset growth in BTC and ETH ETFs, and the potential impact on custody and regulatory discussions.
Sources & verification
- SoSoValue data on weekly inflows to US spot BTC ETFs, including the $250.92 million Tuesday figure and the $767.32 million weekly total.
- Ether ETF inflow data showing a four-day streak totaling about $212.14 million and related cumulative inflows.
- Metrics on total ETF assets (BTC and ETH) under management, including $91.83 billion in net assets and $56.14 billion in cumulative inflows for BTC ETFs, plus $12.26 billion in Ether ETF net assets and $11.79 billion in cumulative Ether inflows.
- Market analysis on Bitcoin price action and liquidity clusters around $71,300, with resistance in the $72,000–$73,500 range and support near $69,000.
- Historical reference to late November 2025 inflows totaling $284.61 million during a similar five-day stretch.
US spot ETFs extend inflows and Ether momentum amid macro pressure
US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted their first five-day inflow streak of 2026, highlighting sustained demand for regulated exposure in a period of elevated macro risk. The week culminated with a Friday print of $180.33 million in net inflows, adding to a Tuesday surge of $250.92 million—the strongest single-day reading in the period—which underscores persistent appetite for direct BTC exposure even as broader market conditions remain unsettled. In parallel, Ether ETFs captured a parallel narrative of renewed interest, with a four-day inflow sequence contributing to a total of roughly $212.14 million in new liquidity for the week. The combined momentum helped push the assets toward multi-billion-dollar baselines, reinforcing the attraction of regulated avenues for on-chain price discovery.
From the numbers, Bitcoin ETFs now command about $91.83 billion in net assets, with cumulative inflows reaching $56.14 billion and roughly $4.93 billion traded on the day. Ether ETFs, by contrast, have amassed around $11.79 billion in cumulative inflows, with total net assets near $12.26 billion and approximately $1.30 billion traded on the day. This dual strength marks a notable shift from earlier in the year, when inflows were more volatile, and it aligns with a broader pattern of institutions and retail buyers seeking regulated access to crypto markets as liquidity conditions evolve.
The market backdrop remains a critical driver of price action. Heightened tensions in the Middle East and volatility in energy markets have led to cautious risk sentiment, which tends to favor liquidity and short-term positioning over aggressive, long-horizon bets. In this context, Bitcoin has traded within a defined range, with derivatives liquidity heatmaps identifying a key short-liquidity cluster near $71,300—acting as a near-term resistance—while a broader concentration sits between $72,000 and $73,500. On the downside, liquidity support sits around $69,000, with more pronounced long-liquidation risks near $68,800. These dynamics suggest that BTC could continue to consolidate absent a macro catalyst capable of triggering a decisive breakout.
Within industry coverage and market literature, some pieces discuss broader crypto price catalysts and the evolving narrative around Ethereum’s momentum, while others examine the potential impact of evolving ETF product strategies on the asset class. For readers exploring deeper analysis, related stories include discussions about Bitcoin price catalysts, Ethereum momentum, and trade secrets in the crypto space.
TLDR
- Executive VP Paul Darren Grasby offloaded 7,500 shares of AMD at approximately $204.87 per share on March 11, totaling $1.54M and reducing his holdings by 5.47%.
- Shares declined 2.2% on Friday, reaching an intraday low of $192.27 with trading volume 30% below average.
- Recent quarterly earnings exceeded expectations: EPS of $1.53 (vs. $1.32 estimate) with revenue of $10.27B, representing 34.1% year-over-year growth.
- Wall Street maintains a “Moderate Buy” consensus with an average price objective of $290.53; price targets span from $240 (Goldman Sachs) to $358 (Evercore).
- Challenges include emerging Chinese GPU competition, Meta’s internal chip development efforts, and macroeconomic pressures affecting the semiconductor industry.
Shares of Advanced Micro Devices tumbled 2.2% on Friday following news that a top executive had divested $1.54 million in company stock days earlier. Paul Darren Grasby, who serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer, sold 7,500 shares at an average price of approximately $204.87 on March 11.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc., AMD
The chipmaker’s shares touched an intraday bottom of $192.27 during Friday’s trading session before settling at $193.39. This represented a decline from the prior session’s closing price of $197.74.
Approximately 27.4 million shares changed hands on Friday — about 30% lighter than AMD’s typical daily volume of 39 million shares. The reduced trading activity indicates the price movement wasn’t fueled by widespread selling pressure.
Following the transaction, Grasby maintains ownership of 129,598 AMD shares, worth approximately $26.5 million based on the sale price. The 5.47% stake reduction was disclosed to the SEC through a mandatory Form 4 filing required for corporate insiders.
While insider transactions don’t necessarily indicate negative sentiment — executives divest shares for various personal reasons including portfolio diversification and tax strategies — the timing caught market attention amid AMD’s roughly 7.7% year-to-date decline.
Recent Quarterly Performance Exceeded Expectations
AMD’s latest quarterly earnings, unveiled on February 3, delivered impressive results that surpassed Wall Street forecasts. The semiconductor manufacturer reported earnings per share of $1.53, exceeding the analyst consensus of $1.32 by $0.21.
Quarterly revenue reached $10.27 billion — representing a 34.1% increase compared to the year-ago period and topping analyst projections of $9.65 billion. The company’s EPS showed significant improvement from the prior year’s $1.09.
Wall Street expects the company to deliver $3.87 in full-year earnings per share.
The company’s financial position appears robust. Its debt-to-equity ratio stands at a modest 0.04, while maintaining a current ratio of 2.85 and quick ratio of 2.01. The price-to-earnings multiple of approximately 73 appears elevated, though the price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 0.77 indicates reasonable valuation when accounting for growth prospects.
Recent strategic developments include a multi-year patent licensing agreement with Adeia and the introduction of new AI-focused products at MWC 2026, featuring Ryzen AI Embedded processors and telecommunications AI solutions.
Wall Street Price Targets Show Wide Dispersion
Analyst sentiment on AMD remains predominantly constructive, though price target expectations vary considerably. Goldman Sachs maintains a neutral stance with a $240 price objective. UBS projects a $310 target. Evercore shows greater optimism with an outperform rating and $358 target.
According to MarketBeat data, the collective analyst consensus stands at “Moderate Buy” with an average price target of $290.53 — representing substantial upside from current levels.
Among analysts tracking AMD, 29 rate it a Buy, one assigns a Strong Buy, and 10 recommend Hold. No analysts currently rate the stock as a Sell.
Multiple challenges loom on the horizon. Chinese semiconductor firm Lisuan Technology recently unveiled GPU products that sparked concern across AMD and Nvidia investor bases. Meta’s initiative to design proprietary AI chips threatens to diminish demand from major third-party customers.
Broader macroeconomic factors — including elevated oil prices, geopolitical instability, and export restrictions on AI chips — have created additional pressure across the semiconductor sector.
AMD currently trades below both its 50-day moving average of $216.76 and its 200-day moving average of $209.62.
As of Friday’s market close, AMD’s market capitalization stood at roughly $315 billion.
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