In the latest interview with Cointelegraph, macro investor and former hedge fund manager James Lavish issued a stark warning to Bitcoin holders and global investors: markets may be pricing in a quick resolution to the Iran conflict — but if that assumption proves wrong, the consequences could be severe.

Lavish argued that if the conflict drags on and keeps pressure on oil prices, the result could be a fresh inflation shock, renewed fears of stagflation and a major repricing across global markets.

In his view, this scenario would put the Federal Reserve in an impossible position: unable to raise rates aggressively without risking recession, yet unable to cut rates due to persistent inflation.

That is where the conversation becomes especially relevant for Bitcoin (BTC). Lavish explains why Bitcoin has behaved differently from gold and equities in recent months, and why that relative resilience may not last in a true “correlation-to-one” panic event. 

If markets suffer a deeper drawdown, he says, Bitcoin could fall another 10% to 20%, potentially revisiting the low $50,000 or even high $40,000 range.

And yet, Lavish is far from bearish in the long run.

One of the most compelling parts of the interview is his argument that such a sell-off would not destroy the Bitcoin thesis — it could actually create a major opportunity. He also explains why investors should avoid being either too levered or completely unexposed in a market driven by war headlines, bond stress and rapidly shifting expectations around Fed policy.

The interview also touches on safe haven investments, energy markets, Treasury yields and money printing. 

If you want to understand how an experienced macro investor thinks about war risk, recession risk and Bitcoin’s next move, watch the full interview on our YouTube channel and don’t forget to subscribe!

Gemini adds drag‑to‑modify tools to ActiveTrader, chasing speed‑focused traders even as GEMI stock trades well below its IPO price and users still complain about lag.

Gemini has rolled out a new order modification feature for its ActiveTrader interface, allowing users to “drag order lines on charts to modify price and click order line pills to modify quantity,” according to co‑founder Tyler Winklevoss in a post on X. Winklevoss framed the update squarely around speed, telling followers that “markets move fast and you can too with @Gemini Active Trader,” alongside a short product demo video that had drawn roughly 29,400 views within hours of posting. The feature targets high‑frequency retail and professional users who need to adjust orders intraday without leaving the chart.

The enhancement builds on a broader Gemini push to make ActiveTrader more customizable, including earlier changes that let users drag and drop modules and activate a floating order form for chart‑centric workflows. On its support pages, Gemini notes that ActiveTrader already supports a full suite of market, limit, and advanced limit orders, including Immediate‑or‑Cancel (IOC), Fill‑or‑Kill (FOK), Maker‑or‑Cancel, and auction‑only instructions, in addition to stop‑limit functionality. By letting traders modify those orders directly from chart objects rather than static tickets, Gemini is closing the usability gap with established trading terminals that have long offered drag‑to‑adjust orders on price ladders and depth charts.

Early reactions on X highlight both enthusiasm and lingering pain points. “Fast moves fr,” wrote user @ZackD0x, while another former team member, @ignacio_ape, said the upgrade “brings me so much joy” and praised seeing ActiveTrader “continuing to grow even tho I’m no longer there.” Not all feedback was glowing: “Drag and drop is cool and all but I really just need the app to stop lagging during high volatility,” complained user @Steffan0xd, underscoring that execution reliability still matters more than interface polish when spreads blow out.

The product update lands as Gemini navigates a tougher market environment as a listed company. After a high‑profile Nasdaq debut in September 2025 that initially valued the exchange at about $4.4 billion, the firm’s GEMI stock has since fallen well below its IPO price, with Bloomberg reporting in February that Gemini “risks a hard landing” after a more than 40% plunge in Bitcoin and mounting operating losses. More recently, crypto.news reported that GEMI is trading below $6—down roughly 76% since the IPO—even as Bitcoin and Ethereum have rebounded, suggesting a growing decoupling between the exchange’s equity and the broader crypto rally.

That disconnect has forced the Winklevoss‑led platform to lean harder on product differentiation, rolling out features such as a self‑custody wallet, prediction markets and a more modular ActiveTrader interface in a bid to convert volatility into higher fee revenue. Whether the new drag‑to‑modify tools meaningfully move the needle will depend less on X engagement metrics and more on whether active traders actually route orders through Gemini instead of rival venues when the next leg of crypto volatility hits.

Bitcoin held above $67,000 on Good Friday as U.S. employers added 178,000 jobs in March — beating forecasts by a wide margin — while traditional markets sat closed for the Easter holiday, leaving crypto as the primary gauge of how investors are pricing the hawkish surprise.

Bitcoin (BTC) held its footing above $67,000 on Good Friday, April 3, as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released a stronger-than-expected March jobs report that showed 178,000 nonfarm payrolls added last month — a figure that significantly exceeded consensus estimates of around 135,000. With traditional U.S. equity and bond markets closed for the Easter holiday, crypto was among the few liquid markets actively pricing in the data.

The BLS release, filed under code USDL-26-0580 and embargoed until 8:30 a.m. ET, showed the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February. At the same time, February’s payroll figure was sharply revised to a net loss of 133,000 jobs — a downward swing that softens the headline beat considerably and suggests the labor market has been weaker than previously reported entering 2026.

Bitcoin decouples — quietly

What stood out on Good Friday was what Bitcoin did not do. With stocks offline and macro traders watching from the sidelines, BTC held its ground rather than selling off on the hawkish implications of a strong jobs print. A 178,000-job print reduces the Federal Reserve’s urgency to cut rates, which typically pressures risk assets like crypto. But Bitcoin absorbed the signal without a meaningful downside.

That composure fits a pattern visible across recent weeks. As crypto.news has reported, Bitcoin has been trading primarily in response to geopolitical headlines around the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict, with macro data playing a secondary role in near-term price discovery. The February jobs shock — when the economy shed 92,000 payrolls — had briefly pushed BTC below $70,000 before markets stabilized. Friday’s print delivered the opposite surprise, yet the price reaction was equally muted.

What this means for the Fed and crypto

“Relatively strong employment data means the Fed feels less pressure to reduce interest rates,” analysts at Bitfinex noted in a recent macro briefing. “It will likely remain laser-focused on inflation, which it sees as a major risk tied to Trump’s trade policy.” Higher rates tend to strengthen the dollar and weigh on Bitcoin ETF inflows — a dynamic that has shaped much of crypto’s performance in early 2026.

With U.S. markets closed until Monday, the full institutional reaction to Friday’s data will only become clear when equities reopen. Bitcoin’s ability to hold $67,000 through a holiday weekend — under both a strong jobs print and continued war risk from the Middle East — may offer early evidence that the asset is finding a floor.

Onchain detective ZachXBT claims that Circle, the issuer of the USDC (USDC) stablecoin, has failed to freeze or blacklist about $420 million in illicit fund flows since 2022.

Circle can freeze illicit funds and blacklist wallet addresses, but either took “minimal” action to freeze illicit flows or failed to act in 15 separate hack-and-fraud cases, including those linked to North Korean (DPRK) state-affiliated hackers, ZachXBT said. 

The stablecoin issuer allegedly failed to freeze $9 million in USDC from the GMX decentralized exchange (DEX) hack in July 2025, and blacklisted wallets linked to the $200 million Cetus DEX hack in May 2025 after USDC was converted into Ether (ETH), according to ZackXBT.

Circle failed to freeze $232 million in illicit flows from the Drift Protocol Hack on Wednesday, despite a six-hour window in which the attackers converted USDC to ETH in over 100 separate transactions, he added. 

“Circle builds good products, and I hold USDC myself. This isn’t a post about hoping they collapse,” he said, adding that the failure to freeze these illicit flows has had “real consequences for real people.” He said:

“Nine figures were lost from the ecosystem because of repeated inaction across three years on law enforcement requests, private sector requests, and their own infrastructure. The $420 million-plus only accounts for major public cases. The real figure is likely significantly higher.”

Cointelegraph reached out to Circle but did not receive an immediate response by the time of publication.

The lack of asset freezes has sparked an online debate in the crypto community about the role and responsibilities of centralized service providers, as blockchain protocols and users continue to be targeted in hacks and cybersecurity exploits that drain funds. 

Related: ZachXBT claims Circle wrongfully freezing exchange wallets

Circle explores “reversible” USDC transactions

In September 2025, Heath Tarbert, the president of Circle, said that the company was exploring “reversible” USDC transactions that could be rolled back or amended in the event of hacks, theft and fraud.

Circle has frozen USDC funds and blacklisted wallets on multiple occasions, including freezing USDC held by Tornado Cash addresses sanctioned by the US Office of Foreign Assets Control in 2022. 

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