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Bitcoin permabull Arthur Hayes: I wouldn’t bet $1 on BTC now

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Bitcoin Permabull Arthur Hayes: I Wouldn't Bet $1 On Btc Now

Bitcoin Permabull Arthur Hayes: I Wouldn't Bet $1 On Btc Now

Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory remains tightly linked to U.S. monetary policy and the evolving geopolitical backdrop, according to Arthur Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder known for his bold price calls. In a recent appearance on the Coin Stories podcast with Natalie Brunell, Hayes said he would not deploy fresh capital into Bitcoin today, preferring to wait and see how the Federal Reserve navigates the post-pandemic economy and whether global tensions escalate further. While he has floated a bold target of 250,000 dollars for Bitcoin in the coming years, his immediate stance is to observe policy signals before committing new funds. At the time of publication, Bitcoin traded around $69,926, well off its October all-time high near $126,000.

Hayes emphasized that the macro environment—rather than purely market dynamics—drives his cautious stance. He warned that if the conflict between the U.S. and Iran persists, there could be broad risk-off pressure that weighs on equities and crypto alike. “The longer this conflict goes on, the higher the likelihood that the Fed has to print money to support the American war machine,” he argued, framing the central bank’s response as a potential catalyst for price moves in favored disinflation hedges like Bitcoin. He drew a sharp distinction between the wartime narrative and the monetization policy, stating plainly that he would start buying Bitcoin only when central banks begin printing money again. “That’s when I’m going to buy Bitcoin when the central banks start printing money,” he said in a direct quote during the discussion.

“That’s when I’m going to buy Bitcoin when the central banks start printing money.”

In his view, money printing—not war itself—has historically provided a supportive backdrop for Bitcoin’s rise. Still, he acknowledged that ongoing geopolitical frictions could drive the price lower in the near term, contrasting with arguments that war itself is a Bitcoin catalyst. While some market observers contend that geopolitical shocks can spark Bitcoin inflows as a non-sovereign store of value, Hayes warned of the possibility of a cascading liquidations scenario if risk assets slide in tandem. The conversation also touched on the notion that volatility could intensify as market participants reassess the pace and scale of monetary stimulus in a world of persistent geopolitical risk.

Bitcoin’s price action has been choppy. The asset briefly tested the $60,000 mark on February 6 before rebounding into a milder uptrend. Hayes noted that the current price level leaves room for further downside, particularly if macro signals deteriorate and liquidation risk rises. He remained steadfast on his longer-term projection, sustaining the idea that Bitcoin could reach a multi-hundred-thousand-dollar level in the next several years, a view that has colored his investment stance and public commentary for some time. The market’s tension between policy direction and geopolitical risk remains a driving force behind price discovery, and Hayes’ stance underscores a broader debate about whether macro catalysts will finally unlock a lasting uptrend for BTC.

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As other analysts weigh in on the near-term picture, Michaël van de Poppe recently pointed to a “strong surge” in the Nasdaq as a supporting factor for Bitcoin, arguing that a calmer risk environment could broaden upside for both BTC and altcoins. His assessment aligns with a more optimistic near-term outlook, even as Hayes maintains a more cautious, policy-driven lens. The broader sentiment in the space remains mixed: investors are watching Fed communications, macro data, and geopolitical headlines for signals that could shift liquidity, risk appetite, and correlation dynamics between traditional markets and digital assets.

Hayes has long been known for a contrarian stance on Bitcoin’s price path. The recent discussion did little to dislodge his core thesis that the path to substantial gains hinges on central banks’ willingness to loosen policy rather than on any single development in the crypto space. He has publicly entertained a $250,000 target for Bitcoin, a figure he has echoed in various appearances and interviews, though the timing has varied in public commentary. The juxtaposition of a lofty long-term target with a cautious near-term posture reflects a broader tension in the market: the asset’s allure as a hedge against monetary expansion coexists with vulnerabilities tied to macro shocks and policy shifts.

Why it matters

The episode illustrates how macro policy and geopolitical risk continue to influence crypto narratives at a time when liquidity and risk sentiment are in flux. Hayes’ comments underscore a recurring theme: Bitcoin’s appeal as a non-sovereign instrument may depend more on the stance of central banks than on any single tactical catalyst. If the Fed signals faster-than-expected easing or if geopolitical tensions intensify, BTC could find a renewed bid as investors seek hedges against inflation and policy uncertainty. Conversely, a more aggressive stance on inflation containment or a risk-off shift could amplify downside pressures in the near term, particularly if equities step lower.

For investors, the takeaway is not a call to chase immediate moves but a reminder that macro dynamics—policy normalization, balance-sheet expansion, and global conflicts—can alter the rate and direction of Bitcoin’s price discovery. Hayes’ emphasis on waiting for a policy pivot serves as a caution against chasing a near-term breakout in a market that remains highly sensitive to Federal Reserve cues and to the unfolding geopolitical landscape. In this light, Bitcoin’s current risk-reward profile will hinge on how aggressively policymakers respond to ongoing macro and geopolitical surprises, rather than on crypto-market fundamentals alone.

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Ultimately, the narrative around Bitcoin’s price path remains a blend of long-horizon conviction and short-term prudence. The market will likely continue to trade around the interplay of monetary policy expectations, liquidity conditions, and external shocks—factors that have historically driven both volatility and opportunity in the cryptocurrency space. Hayes’ position—to wait for signs of monetary easing before adding exposure—adds another data point to a crowded field of opinions about whether BTC can sustain a trajectory toward higher highs or face renewed headwinds in the months ahead.

What to watch next

  • Upcoming Federal Reserve communications or policy adjustments that signal a shift toward easing or continued tightening.
  • Geopolitical developments and any escalation in U.S. or regional conflicts that could influence risk sentiment and currency markets.
  • Bitcoin price interactions with key technical levels around 60k and 70k, and how liquidity conditions evolve in a risk-on vs. risk-off environment.
  • Macro-driven narratives, including Nasdaq performance and broader equity flows, which can affect correlations with BTC.
  • Statements from prominent investors or analysts that could recalibrate Bitcoin’s short- to medium-term risk-reward outlook.

Sources & verification

  • Hayes’ remarks on the Coin Stories podcast with Natalie Brunell (YouTube): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ny9P1l0WKwo&t=2074s
  • Bitcoin price reference page: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
  • Bitcoin price context referenced in the piece, including a February 6 dip toward $60,000 and the October all-time high near $126,000
  • Reported long-term target of $250,000 for Bitcoin and the assertion that policy shifts (not war alone) drive bullish narratives

This article was originally published as Bitcoin permabull Arthur Hayes: I wouldn’t bet $1 on BTC now on Crypto Breaking News – your trusted source for crypto news, Bitcoin news, and blockchain updates.

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Dogecoin zooms as Elon Musk announces X Money launch date for April

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Here's how Elon Musk's SpaceX–Tesla merger could impact 20,000 bitcoin (BTC)

Elon Musk said late Tuesday that the payments features on social application X will go live next month.

Dubbed X Money, the feature turns X into a fintech app with peer-to-peer transfers, bank deposits, a debit card, cashback re

The platform is licensed in over 40 U.S. states through subsidiary X Payments and has Visa as a partner for account funding.

Dogecoin rallied as much as 8%, before reversing gains, after the annoucement despite it containing zero references to crypto. It hit nearly $0.10 over the past day before settling around $0.093, making it the best-performing major crypto over both 24-hour and seven-day periods.

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The reflexive move reflects a pattern that has played out multiple times since 2021. Musk says something about X payments, and DOGE pumps on speculation he’ll integrate it.

Musk has called dogecoin his “favorite cryptocurrency” and Tesla accepted DOGE for merchandise in 2022. But X Money as described is a pure fiat product, with peer-to-peer transfers, bank linking, debit card. That’s closer to Venmo with a social media app attached, not a crypto wallet.

As such, X’s head of product Nikita Bier said in February that crypto trading tools would come to X through Smart Cashtags, but clarified the platform wouldn’t execute trades or act as a brokerage.

It would provide data and links that redirect users to exchanges. Musk recently reposted a third-party forecast of X Money’s future features that included “crypto integration,” but the company hasn’t confirmed anything.

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The more interesting question for crypto markets isn’t whether DOGE gets added. It’s the 6% yield.

Six percent on a balance inside a social media app used by hundreds of millions of people is higher than virtually every U.S. savings account and competitive with money market funds. Whether it’s subsidized by X to drive adoption, generated by lending deposits, or backed by some other mechanism matters enormously for how regulators view it.

The timing collides with Congress fighting over the CLARITY Act, which would set rules for yield-bearing stablecoin products.

The Senate Banking Committee is targeting mid-to-late March for markup. The core policy question is whether non-bank platforms should be allowed to offer deposit-like yields to consumers.

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X Money isn’t a stablecoin product, but it’s targeting the exact same consumer demand, people looking for better returns than their bank offers, through a different regulatory path.

If X Money launches at scale with 6% APY before the CLARITY Act passes, it creates an awkward comparison. A fiat fintech product inside a social media app gets to offer yields that crypto stablecoin products are being legislated out of.

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Ethereum’s on fire with record activity, but ether price and blockchain fees lag

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(DeFiLlama)

Ethereum’s network activity has surged to all-time highs across multiple metrics, but the growth has failed to lift ether’s price or boost fee generation at the base layer.

A weekly report from analytics firm CryptoQuant published March 10 found that daily active addresses on Ethereum approached 2 million in February 2026, exceeding peaks seen during the 2021 bull market. Active addresses are unique blockchain wallet addresses that have sent or received a transaction within a specific timeframe, like the past 24 hours

Smart contract calls, or codes on blockchain telling it to do something specific, topped 40 million per day, and token transfers driven by internal contract interactions also set records. The findings point to broad adoption across DeFi, stablecoins and automated protocol activity, even as investment demand for ether has weakened.

Record network user activity typically bodes well for the market value of the blockchain’ native token. But that’s not the case with Ethereum.

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It’s native token ether is down roughly 30% over the last six months, and the one-year change in Ethereum’s realized capitalization has turned negative, indicating net capital outflows from the market.

Exchange flow data from CryptoQuant shows ether moving to trading venues at a faster rate relative to bitcoin, a pattern consistent with elevated selling pressure.

Focus on capital flows

CryptoQuant argued that capital flows, rather than network activity, now explain ETH price dynamics more effectively.

In prior cycles, particularly 2018 and 2021, rising on-chain activity coincided with price rallies. That relationship has weakened. The firm’s scatter analysis showed recent observations clustering at high activity levels but relatively low prices, suggesting incremental usage growth now has less explanatory power for ether’s valuation.

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The fee picture reinforces the disconnect. Data from DefiLlama shows Ethereum generated roughly $10.3 million in transaction fees over the past 30 days, placing it third behind Tron at nearly $25 million and Solana at about $20 million.

(DeFiLlama)

On a revenue basis, the gap widens further. Ethereum ranked fifth in 30-day protocol revenue at $1.22 million, trailing Tron as well as Polygon, Base and Solana. Base, an Ethereum layer-2 network built by Coinbase, generated roughly three times Ethereum’s protocol revenue over the same period.

(DeFiLlama)

The disparity reflects the growing role of Ethereum’s layer-2 ecosystem. Networks such as Base and Polygon process large volumes of transactions while paying relatively small settlement costs back to the base chain, distributing economic activity across the broader Ethereum ecosystem rather than concentrating it on the base layer.

Stablecoins remain a bright spot for adoption. Ethereum hosts approximately $162 billion in stablecoin supply, roughly 52% of the global market, according to DefiLlama. Yet that activity has not translated into proportional value capture for ether itself.

Ethereum may be busier than ever, but the blockchain’s native asset is capturing less of the value created on top of it.

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Strategy Posts Record STRC Sales After ATM Rule Change

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Strategy Posts Record STRC Sales After ATM Rule Change

Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest public holder of Bitcoin, sold a record amount of its perpetual preferred equity, Stretch (STRC), after amending its sales rules on Monday.

Strategy is estimated to have bought 1,420 Bitcoin (BTC) in a single day after selling roughly 2.4 million STRC shares through its at-the-market (ATM) program, according to data from STRC.live. The amount marks the largest estimated daily issuance of STRC and BTC purchases, surpassing the previous record of 1,069 BTC, according to a Monday X post from STRC.live.

Strategy announced a major rule change to its at-the-market (ATM) share sales program on Monday, allowing a second agent to sell the securities before the US market opens and after it closes, easing a prior restriction limiting such sales to one agent per trading day.

STRC sales versus estimated Bitcoin purchases by Strategy. Source: STRC Live

STRC is one of the major pillars of Strategy’s Bitcoin buying

STRC is Strategy’s variable-rate perpetual preferred stock, launched in July 2025 as one of several securities the company uses to help fund its Bitcoin treasury strategy, alongside other ATM programs such as Stride (STRD), Strife (STRF), Strike (STRK) and common stock (MSTR). Strategy says the stock pays monthly variable cash dividends, with the annualized rate for March set at 11.5%.

Strategy’s Stretch (STRC) details. Source: Strategy

Some market observers said the updated sales structure could make it easier for Strategy to issue stock more efficiently during premarket and after-hours trading, potentially accelerating future capital raises tied to Bitcoin purchases.

“A lot more capital will be raised, and a lot more Bitcoin will be purchased,” market observer Ragnar said.

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Source: BitcoinQuant

According to STRC.live, last week’s estimate suggested STRC proceeds would fund a weekly purchase of approximately 4,300 BTC ($303 million). However, the actual purchase exceeded expectations, as Strategy reported selling around $378 million in STRC in its filing with the SEC on Monday.

Related: Oil tumbles, crypto gains as Trump sends mixed signals over Iran war

Source: SEC

The company reported a massive $1.3 billion BTC purchase, marking one of its largest Bitcoin acquisitions on record. Common stock MSTR accounted for the largest proceeds in reported sales, generating nearly $900 million in proceeds.

The results for STRC underscore ongoing rapid acceleration in investor interest, despite the Bitcoin price trading below Strategy’s reported average cost basis of $75,862.

Magazine: The debate over Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over: Benjamin Cowen