Bitcoin Price Faces Conviction Test Near $70,000 Resistance

Bitcoin price is up nearly 5% in the past 24 hours, briefly touching the $70,000 level before pulling back toward $68,000. This rebound helped Bitcoin recover almost 12% from its February 24 low.

But despite this strong move, Bitcoin could not hold above $70,000. This hesitation is not random. It reflects a deeper issue that Dessislava Ianeva, Research Analyst at Nexo, says is still limiting Bitcoin’s recovery. Multiple data points now show that while buy signals are appearing, conviction remains weak. And until Bitcoin clears the $70,000 to $70,800 zone, this recovery may remain incomplete.

Smart Money Signals Price Recovery, But Breakout Still Needs Confirmation

Bitcoin’s recent rebound did not happen without warning. One key indicator called the Smart Money Index (SMI) began rising on February 24. This indicator tracks the trading behavior of informed traders, often linked to strategic positioning. When this index rises, it suggests experienced investors may be positioning early.

The last time this happened was February 13, when the SMI started moving toward the signal line. Back then, the Bitcoin price climbed about 7% over two days.

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This time, the move was stronger. Bitcoin jumped nearly 12%, briefly touching $70,000. At the same time, Bitcoin is now forming what appears to be a cup and handle pattern. This is a bullish structure. It often appears before breakouts.

But the breakout is not confirmed yet. Because Bitcoin is still stuck below the critical upsloping neckline zone between $70,000 and $70,800.

This range now acts as the trigger level. Until Bitcoin crosses it, the pattern remains incomplete.

Nexo Analyst Explains Why Bitcoin Price Recovery Still Lacks Conviction

Despite bullish technical signals, the underlying demand is still weak. Trading volume shows this clearly.

Earlier in February, Bitcoin trading volume reached $125.5 billion. That was during the previous price move. Today, trading volume is around $52 billion. That is more than 58% lower.

Even more importantly, Dessislava Ianeva confirmed this broader trading participation weakness.

“In 2026, BTC average trading volumes are down roughly 17% versus the 2025 average, reflecting subdued market participation,” Ianeva mentioned

This means fewer participants are supporting the move. This is critical because price rallies need strong participation to sustain themselves. At the same time, open interest has also dropped sharply.

Open interest measures the number of futures positions that are active. Earlier in January, open interest stood near $37.5 billion. Now it is around $21.5 billion. That is a 43% drop. This tells us fewer traders are willing to take large positions.

Ianeva added to this finding by saying that:

“Derivatives positioning has normalized and funding conditions have cooled, pointing to orderly deleveraging rather than systemic stress.”

This means the market is stabilizing. But it also means aggressive buying pressure is missing. This helps explain why Bitcoin recovery remains slow.

Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Are Still Selling Despite the Price Bounce

Another major sign of weak conviction, apart from the lack of aggressive buying, comes from Bitcoin’s long-term holders.

The Long-Term Holder Net Position Change metric tracks whether long-term investors are accumulating or selling Bitcoin over a 30-day period. These holders are considered the strongest hands because they typically buy during crashes and sell during market tops.

But right now, they are still selling.

February 24 showed a net reduction of 78,583 BTC on a 30-day rolling basis. That selling has only slightly slowed to 75,911 BTC recently. This is still significantly higher than the 61,431 BTC reduction seen on February 23.

This shows that even as the Bitcoin price rebounded nearly 12%, long-term holders did not shift into accumulation. Instead, they continued distributing supply.

This creates a major problem for the rally. Because sustainable Bitcoin price recoveries usually begin when long-term holders start buying aggressively, not selling.

Dessislava Ianeva also pointed to this broader lack of conviction as part of the macroeconomic (global economic) concerns.

“Macro uncertainty continues to constrain liquidity, even as crypto-specific excess has largely been cleared and the market is in a healthier position.”

This confirms that while Bitcoin’s structure is improving with excess like leverage being cleared out, strong conviction has not fully returned. Until long-term holders stop selling and begin accumulating again, Bitcoin’s upside may remain limited — especially near major resistance zones like $70,000.

Supply Cluster at $70,000–$70,800 Is the Real Bitcoin Price Barrier

The strongest reason Bitcoin stalled near $70,000 comes from on-chain supply data. This data is called URPD, or UTXO Realized Price Distribution. It shows where investors last bought their Bitcoin.

Two major supply clusters exist right now. The first sits near $69,400 and holds about 0.93% of supply. The second sits at $70,600 and holds about 0.60% of supply. Together, this zone contains about 1.5% of the total Bitcoin supply.

That makes it one of the strongest resistance zones. This explains why Bitcoin touched $70,000 but could not stay above it.

Investors who bought earlier at these levels are likely selling to break even. This creates selling pressure. But this also explains why breaking $70,800 could change everything.

Above $70,800, supply becomes significantly thinner, as the last key cluster sitting at $70,600 breaks. This means fewer sellers exist, and if Bitcoin breaks above $70,800, the next major target sits near $78,600. This represents a potential upside of over 11%, as projected by the cup-to-neckline distance.

Also, this level is not random, and the technical resistance aligns with a key URPD cluster as well at $78,200.

However, downside risks still exist as the broader trend for the BTC price points lower. Bitcoin must hold above $65,700 to maintain this bullish structure. If Bitcoin falls below $62,400, the bullish pattern would fail completely.

For now, Bitcoin is stuck at a decision point. Smart money signals show early positioning. But falling trading volume, lower open interest, and strong supply at $70,000 are still blocking the breakout. As the Nexo analyst Dessislava Ianeva explained, the market structure is improving. But conviction is not fully back yet.