Crypto World
Bitcoin price prediction as BTC reaches weekly high despite US-Iran tensions
The price of Bitcoin climbed to a weekly high on March 13, defying geopolitical concerns tied to rising tensions between the United States and Iran.
Summary
- Bitcoin price reached a weekly high near $72,000, holding above the $70K level.
- Negative funding rates on Binance suggest many traders are still shorting the rally.
- A potential short squeeze could push BTC toward $75K if the rebound continues.
Bitcoin (BTC) was trading around $71,400, up about 1.2% on the day, according to the chart data, after briefly touching an intraday high near $72,000. The move pushed the world’s largest cryptocurrency back above the key $70,000 psychological level.
The rebound comes despite a fragile macro environment. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns surrounding global oil markets have weighed on broader risk sentiment, conditions that typically make it difficult for speculative assets like Bitcoin to outperform.
However, on-chain data suggests that many traders remain skeptical about the rally.
According to market insights from CryptoQuant, derivatives market positioning shows a growing bearish bias among investors. Funding rates on Binance have remained negative for roughly a week, indicating that a majority of leveraged traders are betting against further price gains.
On March 10 and March 11, funding rates on Binance reportedly dropped below −0.006, an unusually negative level that signals strong short positioning in the market.
This dynamic could paradoxically support further upside for Bitcoin.
Historically, when funding rates reach extreme levels and a strong consensus forms around a bearish outlook, markets sometimes move in the opposite direction. If Bitcoin continues to push higher, short sellers may be forced to close positions, triggering a short squeeze that could accelerate the rally.
Bitcoin price analysis
The attached chart shows BTC gradually recovering from its February lows near $63,000, forming a sequence of higher lows in recent weeks.
Momentum indicators are also improving. The relative strength index (RSI) is around 54, suggesting bullish momentum is building while still remaining far from overbought territory.
Meanwhile, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) has shifted from deep negative territory in February to positive green bars above the zero line. The steady transition from red to green histogram bars indicates that bearish momentum has faded and bullish momentum is strengthening.
Importantly, the AO shows increasing positive bars in recent sessions, which typically signals growing upside momentum as short-term market strength begins to outpace the longer-term trend.
From a technical perspective, $72,000 represents the immediate resistance level. A confirmed breakout above that area could open the door for a move toward $75,000.
On the downside, $68,000–$69,000 acts as key support, while the $70,000 level remains a critical psychological threshold for maintaining bullish momentum.
Key takeaways
- PYTH is up 9% in the last 24 hours, outperforming other major cryptocurrencies.
- The rally comes following Pyth Network’s integration with Polymarket.
PYTH, the native coin of the Pyth Network, is one of the best performers in the crypto market over the past 24 hours. It could rally higher in the near term as the broader market recovers from Thursday’s slump.
PYTH rallies on Polymarket integration
On Thursday, Pyth Network revealed in a blog post that Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market platform, has integrated Pyth Pro as its data source for a new suite of traditional asset contracts.
The initial offerings include gold, silver, and major equity index ETFs. Polymarket now relies on Pyth Pro’s data to power its daily up/down and daily close markets, with live price charts updated every second to ensure full transparency.
The integration has seen PYTH rally by 9% in the last 24 hours and now trades at $0.0420 per coin.
Pyth Pro provides real-time price data through WebSocket, which Polymarket samples every second to display as a live “price to beat” chart. This allows traders to monitor the market’s status relative to their position in real-time.
The selected assets span a wide range of traditional finance, including major equity indices, commodities like gold, silver, WTI crude, and natural gas, along with over a dozen high-profile U.S. equities such as TSLA, COIN, and PLTR.
Polymarket has integrated this real-time data as a key component of its perpetual futures trading platform. Pyth Pro delivers institutional-grade market data directly from top firms, ensuring it is accurate, transparent, and affordable across all asset classes and regions.
To enhance this, Pyth has partnered with industry leaders and government agencies like Cboe, Jane Street, Revolut, and the U.S. Department of Commerce. This collaboration has helped establish a new model to make market data more accessible, accurate, and transparent.
PYTH eyes $0.050 as bulls step in
The PYTH/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient despite the coin adding 9% to its value in the last 24 hours.
The technical indicators have flipped bullish, indicating that the bulls are now in control of the market. The RSI of 63 is well above the neutral 50 and would enter the overbought territory if the rally persists.
The MACD lines are also within the positive region, indicating a strong bullish bias. If the rally continues, PYTH could retest the $0.050 psychological level for the first time since March 17.
However, if the bears regain control, PYTH could retest the Thursday low of $0.038 over the next few hours or days.
Drift Protocol, a Solana-based decentralized exchange (DEX), said Friday it had opened onchain contact with wallets tied to funds stolen in the exploit that outside firms have estimated at roughly $280 million to $286 million.
Drift said on X that it had initiated onchain contact with wallets holding the stolen Ether (ETH), seeking to open a line of communication.
The team sent onchain messages from its Ethereum address (0x0934faC) to four wallets linked to the exploiter at the time of publication, urging the attacker to reach out via Blockscan chat. “We are ready to speak,” Drift said.
Onchain messaging has become a common tactic in exploit response, allowing protocols to communicate directly with attackers while preserving anonymity. In past cases, such as the Euler Finance hack, similar outreach led to the partial recovery of funds.
Anonymous sender tries to pressure the attacker
Drift’s communication came hours after an unknown sender using the ENS name readnow.eth also reached out to wallets linked to the attacker on Thursday via onchain messages.
The sender claimed to know the identities behind the attack and demanded a payment of 1,000 ETH in exchange for withholding information.
The claims could not be independently verified and may represent an attempt to mislead or pressure the wallet holder. The incident highlights how, alongside official communications, unverified messages can circulate onchain after crypto exploits.
Solana fallout keeps spreading
According to SolanaFloor, Drift’s exploit has so far affected at least 20 Solana protocols, including the decentralized finance (DeFi) platform Gauntlet, which was estimated to be impacted to the scale of $6.4 million.
Blockchain security platform Cyvers said the impact was still expanding as of Friday morning, with no funds being recovered 48 hours past the attack.
Cyvers said that the attack was likely a “weeks-long, staged operation,” noting that the attacker set up durable nonces, a Solana feature allowing users to pre-sign transactions for future execution, days before the exploit.
Related: Crypto hackers steal $169M from 34 DeFi protocols in Q1: DefiLlama
“This closely mirrors the Bybit hack, different technique, same root issue: signers unknowingly approving malicious transactions,” Cyvers added.
Some industry observers, including Ledger chief technology officer Charles Guillemet, suggested the exploit may involve North Korea-linked actors, though details remain unconfirmed.
Magazine: Nobody knows if quantum secure cryptography will even work
South Korean brokerage Korea Investment & Securities (KIS) is reviewing a potential stake in crypto exchange Coinone, according to Korean media reports and company comments, though no deal has been finalized.
Citing people familiar with the matter, the Korea Herald reported that KIS started engaging with regulators and politicians as part of a broader process tied to a potential investment in Coinone. Coinone also said no specific transaction had been decided.
The news comes as South Korea considers a proposal to cap major shareholders’ stakes in domestic crypto exchanges at 20%, a move that could force ownership changes across parts of the sector if enacted. Coinone Chairman Cha Myung-hoon reportedly controls about 53.44% of the exchange, meaning a stake sale could become one way to adapt if the proposed cap advances into law.
The move would position KIS alongside its rival, Mirae Asset Group, which agreed to acquire a controlling stake in crypto exchange Korbit, according to a February filing. KIS recorded a net profit of over 2 trillion won (about $1.3 billion) in 2025, making it a strong candidate for a potential stake acquisition in Coinone, Hankyung reported.
South Korea moves to cap crypto exchange ownership at 20%
The potential deal unfolds as South Korea moves to reshape ownership structures in its crypto exchange market.
On March 4, the South Korean government and ruling party agreed on a plan to cap ownership stakes of major shareholders in local exchanges at 20%. According to Herald Economy, the Democratic Party of Korea’s digital asset task force and the Financial Services Commission (FSC) agreed to set the maximum shareholding limit at 20% after discussions.
Related: South Korea tax agency seeks private crypto custodian after security lapses
Under the proposal, exchanges would have three years from the law’s enforcement to adjust their ownership structures if the measure is passed.
With Cha holding more than half of Coinone, the proposed cap could eventually require him to reduce his stake. The Herald said he could still retain management control even if a sale proceeds.
The reported talks follow other recent moves by major South Korean companies to secure positions in the crypto sector.
In late 2025, Naver Financial disclosed plans for a roughly $10.3 billion all-stock deal to acquire Dunamu, the operator of Upbit. On March 30, Naver Financial delayed its planned share swap with Dunamu, as regulatory reviews continued and trading volumes declined.
Magazine: Banks want to run Vietnam’s crypto exchanges, Boyaa’s $70M BTC plan: Asia Express
Bitcoin’s on-chain profit-and-loss metrics are edging toward the bear-market territory observed in prior cycles, according to CryptoQuant data analyzed by a CryptoQuant analyst known as Darkfost. The latest figures show about 11.2 million BTC in profit, with the trough of the last bear market recording roughly 9 million BTC in profit. On the loss side, around 8.2 million BTC are currently in loss, a level that Glassnode data indicate has not been seen since late 2022. Darkfost notes that during the previous bear market, the profit supply peaked around 10.6 million BTC, a level the market now approaches from a different angle.
The juxtaposition of sizable profit supply and rising losses is fueling a nuanced debate among analysts about what comes next for BTC. While some see the on-chain configuration as hinting at undervaluation similar to prior downturns, others caution that the signals reflect mounting market stress and may precede a period of consolidation rather than an imminent bottom.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin profit-supply stands near bear-market-like thresholds, with approximately 11.2 million BTC in profit and about 8.2 million BTC in loss, according to CryptoQuant and Glassnode data.
- In the last bear market, profit supply reached around 10.6 million BTC, suggesting current levels are approaching historical extremes but not identical to prior cycles.
- Analysts diverge on interpretation: some see signs of undervaluation, while others flag rising market stress and potential pre-bottom consolidation.
- BTC has fallen roughly 52% from its all-time high this cycle, a drawdown notably smaller than the 77%–84% declines seen in many earlier bear markets.
- Macro backdrop remains challenging: a stronger U.S. dollar and tighter global liquidity could delay a sustained recovery, with rate cuts not broadly anticipated until late 2026 or 2027.
On-chain signals tightening toward bear-market parity
CryptoQuant data analyzed by Darkfost indicate that Bitcoin’s profit supply has climbed toward levels historically associated with bear markets. The current figure sits around 11.2 million BTC in profit, while the loss-side metric sits near 8.2 million BTC. Glassnode data corroborate that the loss-supply level is at a point not seen since late 2022. Darkfost emphasized that the last bear market had as much as 10.6 million BTC in profit, underscoring how the current scene sits near a store of historical extremes but remains distinct from past dynamics.
These metrics do not automatically spell doom, but they do illuminate a market where profit-bearing coins are plentiful even as a substantial portion of supply sits in loss. That configuration can complicate the price path, since a broad cohort of holders remains profitable, while others are under water—potentially influencing sentiment, risk tolerance, and selling pressure as conditions evolve.
Different readings: undervaluation versus market stress
In a contrasting view, Andri Fauzan Adziima, the research lead at the Bitrue exchange, argues that the data point to rising market stress rather than an imminent undervaluation. He notes that true capitulation bottoms historically accompany sharper pain: in 2022, supply in loss exceeded 50% and profit hovered around 45% or lower, with metrics such as net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) and market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) at extreme levels.
“Current data points to early/mid-bear transition (potential structural bottom near $55,000), with more downside or consolidation likely before a full reset.”
Separately, coverage from Cointelegraph highlighted that Fidelity described Bitcoin’s drawdown this cycle as less dramatic than in some past cycles, illustrating the divergent interpretations across the market.
Beyond these readings, Bitcoin’s drawdown from its all-time high this cycle stands at about 52%, a smaller drop than typical bear markets, which have seen declines of approximately 77% to 84% from cycle highs. Such dynamics can be interpreted as evidence of a more resilient near-term setup, though they do not by themselves guarantee a sustained rally or a durable bottom.
Macro backdrop: dollar strength and liquidity constraints
Macro factors are shaping how traders assess on-chain signals. Timothy Peterson, a well-known commentator on Bitcoin markets, observed that BTC tends to struggle when the U.S. dollar is strong and the Chinese yuan is weak, a situation that tightens global liquidity and nudges capital toward cash and government bonds when yields remain elevated. The implication is that dollar strength acts as a headwind for risk assets, including Bitcoin, even as liquidity conditions shift with policy moves.
Peterson notes that a meaningful improvement for BTC would come only when U.S. interest rates fall and dollar yields lose their appeal, a development he expects is unlikely before the second half of 2026 or, more plausibly, in 2027. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has risen about 5% over the past two months, according to data tracked on TradingView, adding to the macro hurdles facing a rapid BTC recovery.
Taken together, the on-chain signals and macro backdrop present a nuanced landscape: a market that, on one hand, shows pockmarks of bear-market-like behavior in profit metrics, but, on the other, is contending with a robust dollar and cautious liquidity that can prolong a period of consolidation rather than deliver a quick reset. Investors should watch for shifts in dollar dynamics, policy expectations, and changes in on-chain metrics such as NUPL and MVRV as new data come in over the coming quarters.
Looking ahead, the question remains what path Bitcoin will take as macro conditions evolve. If on-chain indicators begin to align with a genuine bottom—supported by a sustained weakening of the dollar and a more favorable liquidity environment—the next phase could reflect a gradual re-rating rather than an abrupt rebound. Conversely, if the macro regime remains restrictive and stress signals persist or intensify, the market may continue to drift below recent highs before any meaningful reset materializes.
Readers should keep an eye on evolving rate expectations, liquidity conditions, and the trajectory of on-chain risk metrics. The coming quarters will clarify whether Bitcoin’s current configuration marks the end of a broader drawdown or merely a protracted period of accumulation before a more decisive breakout.
The United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Department of Justice have filed lawsuits against Illinois, Connecticut, and Arizona over the federal government’s authority to regulate prediction markets.
Summary
- The CFTC and Department of Justice have sued three states, arguing that prediction markets fall under exclusive federal derivatives oversight.
- Illinois and other states had issued cease and desist orders, claiming event contracts violated local gambling laws and licensing rules.
According to a complaint filed against Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, Attorney General Kwame Raoul, and the Illinois Gaming Board, the state gaming board improperly classified event contracts as “wagers” or “sports betting” instead of swaps.
In the lawsuits, the CFTC maintains that it has “exclusive jurisdiction” to regulate “Designated Contract Markets (DCMs),” which it says extend to prediction platforms under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA).
Per the regulator, Illinois’s move to shut down such platforms “intrudes on the exclusive federal scheme Congress designed to oversee national swaps markets, prompted by the evolution of national financial markets and repeated conflicts with state law.”
“Unless restrained and enjoined by the court, defendants are likely to continue their attempts to subvert federal law and the exclusive jurisdiction to regulate event contract swaps conferred on the CFTC by Congress,” the lawsuit added.
The case stems from cease and desist letters issued by the states and their gaming regulators last year against platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket. The letters claimed that the contracts violated local gambling laws and licensing requirements.
Commenting on the developments, CFTC Chairman Mike Selig described the actions as “aggressive and overzealous attempts to overstep the CFTC,” in a separate statement after the lawsuits were filed.
“Our action today is meant to ensure we are able to effectively regulate the markets that Congress intended us to exclusively oversee,” he added.
Over the past year, at least 11 U.S. states, including Arizona, Nevada, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey, Montana, Ohio, Connecticut, Tennessee, New York, and Massachusetts, have filed actions against prediction market operators.
Simultaneously, some lawmakers are advancing legislative proposals that would ban sports-related event contracts, while others seek to restrict participation in prediction markets tied to war.
Despite the legal pressure, prediction markets are witnessing rapid growth. As previously reported by crypto.news, transaction activity surged, with volumes increasing by more than 2,800% from the same period last year.
Blue Owl Capital (OWL) stock sank to a fresh all-time low of $7.95 on April 2. This comes after the firm told investors it would cap withdrawals on two of its private credit funds, following $5.4 billion in redemption requests in the first quarter alone.
The private capital manager has now lost more than 40% of its market value year-to-date, as investor confidence in the $1.8 trillion private credit sector continues to erode.
Blue Owl disclosed that its $36 billion flagship fund, Blue Owl Credit Income Corp (OCIC), received redemption requests totaling 21.9% of shares outstanding during the first quarter.
It’s technology-focused Blue Owl Technology Income Corp (OTIC) saw an even more dramatic surge. Investors sought to withdraw 40.7% of shares from this $6.2 billion fund. In both vehicles, the firm opted to cap redemptions at 5%.
“We continue to observe a meaningful disconnect between the public dialogue on private credit and the underlying trends in our portfolio,” Blue Owl noted in the shareholder letters.
Blue Owl is far from alone. Apollo Global Management imposed an identical 5% cap after receiving redemption requests exceeding 11% of outstanding shares. BlackRock has also gated withdrawals from its $26 billion fund.
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Bloomberg data suggests that withdrawal requests across more than a dozen private credit funds have totaled approximately $13 billion as of late March. Private capital managers have faced mounting pressure as market turbulence and fears over AI-driven disruption to software borrowers push investors toward the exits.
The post Blue Owl Stock Crashes to All-Time Low After $5.4 Billion Redemption Requests appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Commodity-linked currencies have entered a consolidation phase following recent directional moves, as market participants adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of key US labour market data. Current price action reflects a balance between ongoing demand for the US dollar and attempts at a corrective rebound amid an uncertain fundamental backdrop.
Geopolitical tensions remain an additional factor influencing the market, sustaining elevated uncertainty and increasing volatility across commodity assets. Fluctuations in energy prices continue to affect commodity currencies, limiting the development of sustained trends and making market direction increasingly dependent on incoming macroeconomic data.
Traders have also taken note of yesterday’s remarks by Donald Trump, which included signals of potential shifts in foreign economic policy and approaches to international relations. Additional comments regarding a willingness to intensify pressure on Iran in the coming weeks have further raised geopolitical uncertainty. While the immediate market reaction has been relatively muted, such rhetoric increases the likelihood of renewed demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, particularly if accompanied by strong US macroeconomic data.
Investor focus now turns to the upcoming US employment report. Key releases include Non-Farm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, and wage growth figures, all of which traditionally have a significant impact on currency markets. Strong data could revive bullish momentum in the dollar, while weaker figures may reinforce corrective sentiment and put additional pressure on the US currency.
AUD/USD
After declining over the past three weeks, AUD/USD has found support just above the 0.6800 level. A “bullish engulfing” pattern has formed on the daily timeframe, allowing buyers to push the pair towards 0.6960. However, the rally lost momentum following comments from the US President, although prices have managed to hold above 0.6900. Technical analysis suggests a potential test of resistance in the 0.6960–0.6980 range. A break below 0.6900 could lead to a retest of 0.6830.
Key events that may influence AUD/USD in the coming sessions:
- today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US average hourly earnings
- today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Non-Farm Payrolls
- today at 16:45 (GMT+3): US services PMI
NZD/USD
NZD/USD has been trading sideways for several sessions. Buyers continue to defend support near 0.5700, but a strong fundamental catalyst would be required to trigger a downside breakout and extend the bearish move. A sustained move above 0.5780 could open the way for a deeper corrective recovery.
Overall, the market remains in a holding pattern ahead of a key macroeconomic event. The direction of commodity currencies will largely depend on the outcome of US labour market data, alongside the broader geopolitical backdrop, which continues to influence global financial markets. At present, trading activity remains subdued due to the holiday period, reducing the presence of major market participants. Under such conditions, the risk of false breakouts and short-term volatility spikes increases, calling for additional caution when interpreting price movements.
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AI trading platforms like ConfluxCapital gain ground as investors shift from cloud mining to smarter income strategies.
Summary
- Investors shift from cloud mining to AI-driven platforms like ConfluxCapital for more stable passive crypto income.
- ConfluxCapital uses algorithms to automate trading, improving speed, efficiency, and decision-making over manual strategies.
- The platform offers a $20 bonus, strong security, and flexible withdrawals, appealing to both new and experienced users.
Amidst the persistent volatility of the cryptocurrency market, an increasing number of investors are beginning to re-evaluate various avenues for generating passive income.
In recent years, “cloud mining” was widely regarded as a popular entry point for the average individual to participate in crypto mining; however, as the market matures and technology advances, AI-driven quantitative strategy platforms — such as ConfluxCapital — are gradually emerging as the new mainstream choice.
A transparent distance separates cloud mining from AI quantitative trading
The profitability logic of cloud mining is built upon opaque hash rate leasing arrangements; hidden fees erode anywhere from 30% to 60% of returns, invested capital becomes locked once deposited, and the majority of platforms lack third-party security certification — precisely the root cause behind the rampant prevalence of Ponzi schemes in this sector.
Investors are left to passively rely on the appreciation of BTC prices, with no means to verify whether the mining farms they are investing in actually exist.
AI quantitative trading, conversely, is a completely different proposition: it is grounded in algorithmic trading within open markets, featuring traceable strategies and transparent returns, with funds available for withdrawal at any time, provided certain conditions are met.
Its two-way trading mechanism enables profitability in both bull and bear markets, while institutional-grade security protocols — bolstered by insurance coverage — offer new users a risk-free, zero-cost registration experience.
In short, cloud mining forces investors to gamble on market direction and the integrity of the platform; AI quantitative trading empowers users to rely on algorithms and transparent rules.
What is the ConfluxCapital quantitative strategy?
ConfluxCapital is an automated trading platform powered by artificial intelligence and quantitative financial models. Its core function lies in utilizing algorithms to analyze market data and automatically execute trades at the optimal moment.
Compared to manual trading, quantitative strategies offer greater stability and decisive execution, enabling the completion of complex trading decisions within extremely short timeframes. The platform integrates a dual-layer security system featuring McAfee® and Cloudflare®; new users receive a $20 trial bonus upon registration, and funds can be withdrawn at any time once the account balance reaches $100.
ConfluxCapital simplifies complex quantitative trading into three steps:
Step 2: Choose a Strategy Package: The platform offers a variety of quantitative strategy packages to suit different capital sizes and risk appetites.
| Strategy Name | unit price | Days | Total Revenue |
| Starter Strategy | $100 | 2 days | $100+$6 |
| Basic Strategy | $600 | 5 days | $600+$45 |
| Advanced Strategies | $5,000 | 15 days | $5,000+$1,215 |
| Elite Strategy | $25,000 | 25 days | $25,000+$11,250 |
| Quantum Strategy | $90,000 | 20 days | $90,000+$36,000 |
| Infinite Strategy | $200,000 | 25 days | $200,000+$110,000 |
Step 3: Activate AI and Enjoy Returns: After purchasing a strategy package, profits are automatically credited to an account the following day. Once the account balance reaches $100, users can withdraw funds to their personal cryptocurrency wallet or continue purchasing strategy packages to earn more profits.
ConfluxCapital: Why the Best Choice for 2026?
Platform Core Advantages
Founded in 2023 and headquartered in London, UK, ConfluxCapital is an AI-driven quantitative trading platform. Its core advantages are reflected in five aspects:
- Fully Managed AI Trading
The platform adopts a fully managed model. The AI system handles all market analysis, strategy execution, and trade scheduling, allowing users to enjoy automated trading without needing to master complex trading strategies or algorithm configurations.
- Institutional-Grade Infrastructure
The system runs on institutional-grade infrastructure, supporting the stability requirements of the cryptocurrency market 24/7. It employs dual security protection from McAfee® and Cloudflare®.
By simultaneously executing automated long and short strategies, it can profit in different market directions—even in a deep downtrend, the system can continue to profit through short-selling strategies.
- Transparent Operations Built around five core principles: Transparency (through visible performance metrics), Reliability (based on institutional-grade infrastructure), Ease of Use (reducing the complexity of getting started), Security (through risk control), and Performance (driven by quantitative strategies).
Summary
In today’s ever-evolving crypto market, what truly sets participants apart is no longer merely “holding assets,” but rather “how one employs strategy.”
Cloud mining represents a past opportunity; quantitative trading, conversely, constitutes the core competitive advantage of the future.
For more information, visit the official website and download the app.
Email: [email protected]
Disclosure: This content is provided by a third party. Neither crypto.news nor the author of this article endorses any product mentioned on this page. Users should conduct their own research before taking any action related to the company.
The first quarter of 2026 saw crypto hackers siphon more than $168.6 million from 34 DeFi protocols, according to DefiLlama’s quarterly tally. The figure marks a sharp decline from the same window in 2025, which recorded roughly $1.58 billion in losses, largely driven by a $1.4 billion breach at Bybit.
Notable incidents in Q1 2026 included a $40 million private-key compromise at Step Finance in January, a $26.4 million ether drain from Truebit caused by a smart contract manipulation on January 8, and a March 21 private-key attack targeting stablecoin issuer Resolv Labs. DefiLlama notes that even a handful of high-value hacks can shape quarterly totals, underscoring the ongoing risk landscape in DeFi security.
Key takeaways
- DefiLlama records $168.6 million stolen across 34 DeFi protocols in Q1 2026, signaling a quieter quarter for hacks compared with 2025.
- The largest single incident was Step Finance’s $40 million private-key compromise in January.
- Bybit’s $1.4 billion breach in Q1 2025 dwarfed this quarter’s tally, illustrating how a few mega-hacks can skew year-over-year comparisons.
- Security experts caution that cyber threats in crypto correlate with market cycles and liquidity concentration, not with calendar quarters, emphasizing the need for continuous defense.
DefiLlama tally and incident snapshots
DefiLlama’s dataset highlights 34 security breaches across DeFi protocols in the first three months of 2026, totaling about $168.6 million in stolen funds. The quarter’s largest incident was Step Finance’s $40 million private-key compromise in January, followed by a $26.4 million Ethereum loss from a Truebit vulnerability on January 8. A third notable case involved a private-key breach targeting Resolv Labs, a stablecoin issuer, on March 21. The concentration of losses around a few high-value breaches demonstrates how theDeFi security landscape can be shaped by a small number of outsized events even as total losses remain lower than a year earlier. For context on the data source, see DefiLlama’s hack tracker at DefiLlama hacks.
Attacker incentives rise with liquidity and market activity
Analysts point to market dynamics as a core driver of cybercrime activity in crypto. Nick Percoco, chief security officer at Kraken, told Cointelegraph that threat actors tend to intensify during market cycles and around major product launches, when more liquidity and value are at stake.
“Bull markets, major product launches and fast-moving growth phases all create more attractive conditions for attackers because more value is at stake and new infrastructure can introduce risk.”
“That said, attacks are not confined to just these periods. Vulnerabilities can be exploited in any market environment, particularly in complex or rapidly evolving systems, underlining that security in crypto must be continuous.”
The takeaway is clear: as long as liquidity concentrates and new tech enters the ecosystem, attackers will adapt. The industry’s challenge is sustaining rigorous security practices across evolving platforms and infrastructures.
Threat actors and the evolving risk landscape
North Korea-linked actors have long been a persistent threat to crypto investors and Web3-native companies. Attacks attributed to these groups have grown in visibility, including a high-profile Drift Protocol incident described as involving a private-key leak that led to an estimated $285 million in losses. Security experts describe the current threat landscape as a broad and evolving mix—ranging from highly coordinated groups targeting core infrastructure to opportunistic hackers scanning for weaknesses in smart contracts and client-facing systems.
As one industry voice summarized, “the most attractive targets tend to be those combining large concentrations of value, technical complexity and gaps in operational security.” The transparency of crypto networks can also aid opportunistic attackers in spotting emerging weaknesses, underscoring the need for vigilant, ongoing security measures. In tandem with these dynamics, researchers have warned that 2026 could see more credential theft, social engineering, and AI-powered attacks, elevating the overall risk profile for users, builders, and investors alike. A related Immunefi security report notes that hacked tokens often suffer substantial price declines and rarely recover, highlighting the lasting impact of breaches. See the related piece here: Hacked crypto tokens drop 61% on average and rarely recover, Immunefi report says.
As Q1 2026 closes, the industry faces a critical test: can security teams keep pace with rapid innovation and increasing attack surface, or will the trend towards bigger, more sophisticated exploits outpace defenders?
Readers should watch for ongoing upgrades in key management, more robust credential protection, and collaborative threat intelligence efforts across exchanges and projects as the market moves forward. The evolving threat landscape will continue to shape risk assessments, investment decisions, and security priorities in the months ahead.
Ethereum price is trading at $2,060, barely moving with just 0.8% gain in the last 24 hours, but the surface calm masks something far bigger, building bullish prediction underneath.
The IMF’s April 2026 “Tokenized Finance” note validated and warned about the tokenized real-world asset boom that Ethereum is dominating. To put it into perspective, on-chain RWA value has already hit $24 billion, excluding stablecoins, with the trajectory points far higher. On that $24 billion value, $14 billion is locked in Ethereum.
However, the IMF’s note flagged genuine systemic risks: flash crashes from rapid automated transactions, market fragmentation across siloed ledgers, and liquidity instability. But it also acknowledged RWA’s structural benefits, atomic settlement, continuous liquidity, and operational savings from smart contract automation.
— Real World Asset Watchlist (@RWAwatchlist_) April 2, 2026
BREAKING: IMF (International Monetary Fund) says tokenization is reshaping regulated finance.
Assets moving onto programmable ledgers = efficiency gains.
But strong policy + trust still needed to protect stability.
RWA shift is getting official. 
pic.twitter.com/I9eUzA6Gwo
Tokenized US Treasuries alone have reached $10.8 billion, buoyed by the SEC’s constructive regulatory posture. Peter Thiel has publicly positioned Ethereum as “Wall Street’s base layer” for this market as a bullish signal.
Projections from McKinsey ($2–4T by 2030), BCG ($16T), and Standard Chartered ($30T by 2034) suggest the current $36B figure is a rounding error by comparison. ETH is the rails.
Discover: The best pre-launch token sales
Ethereum Price Prediction: RWA Momentum is Building, But Price Lags
At $2,060, ETH sits at a psychologically significant level, holding above $2,000 but well below the peak it approached in late 2025 when Bitcoin cracked $125,000. That prior high now functions as a long-term resistance ceiling. The current range feels like consolidation.
Volume context is muted relative to the RWA narrative building on-chain. Network activity data suggests ETH is “booming under the hood,” with RWA deployments, smart contract throughput, and institutional settlement flows, while spot price remains range-bound. That divergence between fundamentals and price is a lagging indicator setup.
The $2,000 level is load-bearing right now. If it holds, the RWA growth story has room to translate into price. If it doesn’t, the next meaningful support is well below current levels.
Discover: The best crypto to diversify your portfolio with
LiquidChain Targets Early Mover Upside as Ethereum Tests Key Levels
ETH is a multibillion-dollar asset with institutional adoption already baked into its thesis, and any upside from here requires the entire RWA narrative to keep compounding at scale. That’s a reasonable bet, but it’s not a small-cap return profile.
Traders sizing for asymmetric exposure are already rotating attention toward infrastructure plays that sit beneath the Ethereum layer. The fragmentation problem the IMF specifically flagged, like siloed ledgers, disconnected liquidity, is exactly the problem one early-stage project is being built to solve.
A new layer emerges. Only a few see it first. — LiquidChain (@getliquidchain) March 24, 2026
The future is LiquidChain 
⟁https://t.co/vqvBcdSj94 pic.twitter.com/R7ZeZ0NPGl
LiquidChain ($LIQUID) is a Layer 3 infrastructure project positioning itself as the cross-chain liquidity layer, fusing Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana liquidity into a single execution environment. Developers deploy once and access all three ecosystems. The architecture includes a Unified Liquidity Layer, Single-Step Execution, Verifiable Settlement, and Deploy-Once Architecture.
The presale is live at $0.014 per token, with more than $630K raised to date, and a 1700% APY in staking bonus. The contract itself is also audited by Certik, the leading crypto auditor, to ensure investors safety.
Explore LiquidChain’s presale details here.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research before investing.
The post Ethereum Price Prediction: IMF Warns Tokenization, ETH RWA Booming appeared first on Cryptonews.
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