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Bitcoin price prediction as BTC reaches weekly high despite US-Iran tensions

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Bitcoin price prediction as BTC reaches weekly high despite US-Iran tensions - 2

The price of Bitcoin climbed to a weekly high on March 13, defying geopolitical concerns tied to rising tensions between the United States and Iran.

Summary

  • Bitcoin price reached a weekly high near $72,000, holding above the $70K level.
  • Negative funding rates on Binance suggest many traders are still shorting the rally.
  • A potential short squeeze could push BTC toward $75K if the rebound continues.

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading around $71,400, up about 1.2% on the day, according to the chart data, after briefly touching an intraday high near $72,000. The move pushed the world’s largest cryptocurrency back above the key $70,000 psychological level.

The rebound comes despite a fragile macro environment. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns surrounding global oil markets have weighed on broader risk sentiment, conditions that typically make it difficult for speculative assets like Bitcoin to outperform.

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However, on-chain data suggests that many traders remain skeptical about the rally.

According to market insights from CryptoQuant, derivatives market positioning shows a growing bearish bias among investors. Funding rates on Binance have remained negative for roughly a week, indicating that a majority of leveraged traders are betting against further price gains.

Bitcoin price prediction as BTC reaches weekly high despite US-Iran tensions - 2

On March 10 and March 11, funding rates on Binance reportedly dropped below −0.006, an unusually negative level that signals strong short positioning in the market.

This dynamic could paradoxically support further upside for Bitcoin.

Historically, when funding rates reach extreme levels and a strong consensus forms around a bearish outlook, markets sometimes move in the opposite direction. If Bitcoin continues to push higher, short sellers may be forced to close positions, triggering a short squeeze that could accelerate the rally.

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Bitcoin price analysis

The attached chart shows BTC gradually recovering from its February lows near $63,000, forming a sequence of higher lows in recent weeks.

Bitcoin price prediction as BTC reaches weekly high despite US-Iran tensions - 3
Bitcoin price analysis | Source: Crypto.News

Momentum indicators are also improving. The relative strength index (RSI) is around 54, suggesting bullish momentum is building while still remaining far from overbought territory.

Meanwhile, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) has shifted from deep negative territory in February to positive green bars above the zero line. The steady transition from red to green histogram bars indicates that bearish momentum has faded and bullish momentum is strengthening.

Importantly, the AO shows increasing positive bars in recent sessions, which typically signals growing upside momentum as short-term market strength begins to outpace the longer-term trend.

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From a technical perspective, $72,000 represents the immediate resistance level. A confirmed breakout above that area could open the door for a move toward $75,000.

On the downside, $68,000–$69,000 acts as key support, while the $70,000 level remains a critical psychological threshold for maintaining bullish momentum.

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Robert Kiyosaki issues new warning on Bitcoin and retirement

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Robert Kiyosaki issues new warning on Bitcoin and retirement

Robert Kiyosaki said current economic pressure reflects changes that began in the 1970s. 

Summary

  • Kiyosaki said 1974 policy shifts still shape debt, inflation, retirement pressure, and demand for Bitcoin.
  • He warned baby boomers may face retirement income gaps as pensions gave way to market-based accounts.
  • Santiment data showed Bitcoin bearish sentiment rose, while contrarian traders watched fear levels for reversal signs.

Robert Kiyosaki said 1974 marked a major shift in how money and retirement worked in the United States. In a post on X, he wrote that “the future created in 1974 has arrived” and tied today’s financial stress to policy changes from that period.

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He connected that year to the petrodollar system and to changes in retirement planning. Kiyosaki said those changes helped shape the debt and inflation concerns now facing households and investors.

Kiyosaki also referred to the Employee Retirement Income Security Act and the wider move away from pension structures that paid workers for life. He said many workers now depend on market-based retirement accounts instead of guaranteed income after leaving work.

He warned that this shift placed more responsibility on individuals. In the same post, he wrote that “millions of baby-boomers will soon find out they have no income once they stop working,” linking that concern to long-term pressure on retirement security.

In addition, Kiyosaki repeated his long-running support for gold, silver, and Bitcoin. He described those assets as “real money” and said people should focus on financial education while looking at alternative stores of value.

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His latest remarks follow similar warnings from recent months. Last month, he said a major financial “bubble burst” could send capital into scarce assets and push Bitcoin much higher. He also said Bitcoin could reach $750,000 within a year after such a crash.

Bitcoin sentiment turns more negative

At press time, Bitcoin traded near $66,826. Kiyosaki’s latest comments arrived as market sentiment around the asset weakened. Data from Santiment showed bearish discussion on social platforms rose to its highest level since late February.

The platform said the bullish-to-bearish comment ratio fell to 0.81, showing weaker confidence among traders. Santiment also said that extreme fear can sometimes act as a contrarian signal, with markets often moving against the crowd when negative sentiment grows too strong.

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How Japan’s Surging Government Bond Yields Are Triggering a Global Liquidity Drain on Bitcoin

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Japan holds ¥390 trillion in JGBs — a 1% yield rise could trigger tens of trillions in unrealized losses.
  • Japanese institutions are liquidating foreign risk assets, pulling global liquidity as capital returns home.
  • Early 2026 saw $9.6 billion exit Bitcoin, with capital rotating into stablecoins amid rising rate pressure.
  • Stablecoin supply near all-time highs signals sidelined capital that has yet to re-enter risk markets.

Rising Japanese government bond yields are quietly reshaping the global liquidity landscape in 2026. As yields climb, Japan’s largest domestic institutions face mounting pressure on their balance sheets.

This pressure triggers a chain of asset liquidations and capital repatriation that extends far beyond Japan’s borders.

Bitcoin, as a globally sensitive risk asset, is absorbing the consequences of this contraction. Understanding this dynamic is now essential for anyone tracking crypto market behavior.

How Rising JGB Yields Are Draining Global Liquidity

Japanese government bond yields have been rising steadily due to several converging macro forces. Policy normalization expectations from the Bank of Japan are a primary factor.

Persistent inflation and mounting fiscal expansion concerns are adding further upward pressure. Together, these forces are pulling bond prices lower across the curve.

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Japan’s domestic institutions hold approximately ¥390 trillion in government bonds. Even a 1% rise in yields can produce tens of trillions of yen in unrealized losses.

Banks, insurers, and pension funds carry the heaviest exposure among domestic holders. These institutions are now being forced into difficult balance sheet decisions.

To manage growing losses, many institutions are liquidating risk assets abroad. Capital is being repatriated back to Japan at an accelerating pace.

Japan ranks among the world’s largest external investors, so these moves carry global weight. Each wave of repatriation effectively removes liquidity from international financial markets.

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Data is already confirming this trend. Yen-denominated external credit has declined noticeably in recent months. This decline reflects the active withdrawal of Japanese capital from global markets. The essence of liquidity contraction is visible in these numbers, and Bitcoin is not immune to it.

Bitcoin Absorbs the Pressure as Deployed Liquidity Shrinks

Bitcoin’s sensitivity to global liquidity conditions makes it particularly vulnerable during this period. Historically, low-rate environments provided the fuel for Bitcoin’s price expansion cycles.

Rising rates reduce leverage across markets and suppress new demand from institutional participants. Japan’s climbing yields are directly contributing to this tightening dynamic.

Early 2026 data recorded approximately $9.6 billion flowing out of Bitcoin. Much of this capital rotated into stablecoins rather than leaving crypto markets entirely.

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This rotation points to investors reducing risk exposure while staying positioned for re-entry. Higher rates appear to be the primary force behind this cautious capital movement.

Stablecoin supply data adds another layer to this picture. The “All Stablecoins (ERC20): Total Supply” chart has returned to near all-time highs.

This level shows that substantial capital remains parked and waiting on the sidelines. Yet this liquidity is not actively entering risk markets, reflecting a “liquidity exists but is not deployed” condition.

Analysts now argue that Bitcoin can no longer be tracked through on-chain metrics alone. Rates, foreign exchange movements, and global credit flows must be part of the analysis framework.

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Japan’s rising JGB yields have become a central variable in understanding Bitcoin’s macro environment. Liquidity contraction originating in Tokyo is now a force felt across global crypto markets.

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Crypto Faces Existential Token Glut as Supply Outpaces Value Growth

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Crypto Breaking News

The crypto industry is confronting a paradox: an explosion in the number of tokens, paired with stagnating overall value. Industry observers say the surge in supply is outpacing the demand and usefulness of the assets, raising what one founder calls an existential challenge for the sector.

In a stream of posts on X, Michael Ippolito, co-founder of Blockworks, highlighted a stark divergence between the proliferation of tokens and the value they generate. “The average coin is only slightly higher than where it was in 2020 and down about 50% since 2021,” he wrote, underscoring how a larger token universe has not translated into commensurate gains for holders. He also noted that median token returns have fallen sharply, with most assets down roughly 80% from their peaks, suggesting gains have become concentrated in a narrow group of large-cap tokens while the broader market lags.

Ippolito argues the root cause is supply: a rapid expansion in token issuance has minted a vast number of assets even as total market capitalization remains mostly flat. “We created a ton of new assets and still total market cap is flat,” he said, warning that value dilution across a growing token pool undermines the industry’s fundamentals.

Key takeaways

  • Token inflation is projected to outpace value generation, diluting investor returns as the number of assets multiplies against a relatively flat market cap.
  • Prices and on-chain fundamentals have diverged since 2021, with on-chain revenue lifting only modestly while token prices fail to follow.
  • Public commentary from prominent investors echoes concern that token issuance dynamics threaten broader ecosystem credibility and long-term relevance.
  • Capital allocation appears to be shifting away from newly issued tokens toward publicly listed crypto firms, with the majority of token launches trading below their generation event prices.

Token prices break from fundamentals

Beyond the expansion of assets, observers note a weakening link between on-chain activity and market prices. In 2021, token valuations tended to track protocol revenues and usage. More recently, even as some networks have reported renewed revenue generation, prices have not mirrored that momentum. This decoupling, according to Ippolito, signals waning investor confidence in tokens as reliable vehicles for capturing value.

Arthur Cheong, founder and CEO of DeFiance Capital, echoed the sentiment, urging the industry to address the token conundrum. In a post on X, Cheong argued that if the market remains concentrated around a small handful of assets like Bitcoin and Ether, the broader ecosystem risks losing relevance. The sense of urgency around realigning token economics with price remains a recurring theme among influential investors.

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Capital shifts from tokens to stocks

New research adds a practical dimension to the conversation: capital is rotating away from fresh token launches and toward publicly listed crypto companies. A February report from DWF Labs found that over 80% of token projects traded below their token generation event (TGE) price, with typical losses ranging from 50% to 70% within roughly three months. The study details a pattern where peaks occur within the first month after launch, followed by sustained selling pressure and overhang from airdrops and early investor unlocks that depress subsequent price action.

Andrei Grachev of DWF Labs framed the finding as structural rather than cyclical, suggesting that the dynamics of token issuance—especially post-launch unlocks—continue to weigh on price trajectories even for projects with active products or protocols.

Broader implications for the market

Taken together, the observations point to a market that must reconcile a rapidly expanding asset universe with a comparatively stable or shrinking value base. If the industry cannot restore alignment between token fundamentals and price, the appeal of tokens as value-bearing instruments could wane, risking broader adoption and investment interest. The conversation is reframing token issuance practices, with voices in the ecosystem calling for tighter economics, improved utility, and more disciplined distribution models to prevent perpetual dilution.

As the debate unfolds, market participants will be watching several key developments: whether new tokens adopt more conservative supply schedules or unique value accrual mechanisms, how regulators and auditors respond to proliferation and complex unlock patterns, and whether investors increasingly favor tokenized representations tied to real-world use cases or established crypto firms over speculative launches.

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For readers seeking direction, the coming quarters will reveal whether the industry can re-anchor token prices to tangible fundamentals or whether concentration in a few dominant assets will persist, leaving many projects competing for marginal gains in a crowded field.

Watch next for how token issuers adapt to this critique, whether capital rotates further toward crypto-listed equities or continues to seek merit across the broader asset class, and what, if any, policy or market-driven reforms emerge to restore alignment between innovation and value.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Bitcoin Prepping New Lows, Trader Warns as Bollinger Bands Tighten

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Bitcoin Prepping New Lows, Trader Warns as Bollinger Bands Tighten

Bitcoin added downside BTC price warnings as Binance order-book data showed multiple investor classes selling coins into the weekend.

Bitcoin (BTC) circled $67,000 on Sunday as traders warned of hidden BTC price weakness.

Key points:

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  • Bitcoin Bollinger Bands demand a volatile BTC price breakout after a slow weekend.

  • A trader predicts a move lower thanks to weak support and exposed downside wicks.

  • Sideways price action comes as sellers step up into the end of the week.

Bitcoin trader waits for sweep of sub-$60,000 lows

Data from TradingView showed volatility cooling over the weekend, with BTC/USD acting within an increasingly narrow range.

On four-hour time frames, the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator constricted — a classic signal that a sharp move up or down was due.

BTC/USD four-hour chart with Bollinger Bands. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

In their latest analysis, pseudonymous trader LP bet on bears winning the battle.

“Looking back at previous cycles, bottoms were formed after multiple sweeps of the lows, forcing capitulation before a reversal,” a post on X read. 

“In contrast, this cycle has been doing the opposite, consistently sweeping the highs, making it difficult to enter short positions while leaving the lows exposed and building liquidity below.”

BTC price comparison. Source: LP/X

LP said that sweeping local lows, including February’s wick below $60,000, was “likely just a matter of time.”

“When that breakdown eventually happens, watch the behavior closely. If price starts repeatedly sweeping the lows, making it psychologically difficult to enter longs, that’s when a true bottom is more likely forming,” they concluded.

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Whales “buying dips and selling rips” on BTC

Continuing, Keith Alan, cofounder of trading resource Material Indicators, flagged unusual selling activity despite flat BTC price action.

Related: Bitcoin ‘done’ with 85% crashes, says Cathie Wood amid new $34K target

Uploading a chart of Binance order-book liquidity and volume by investor class, Alan highlighted a bot using time-weighted average price (TWAP) to distribute BTC on Friday.

“The vertical orange line represents the smallest order class with a TWAP bot selling $18M in an hour,” he explained. 

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“That’s exponentially more than their normal $3M-$5M daily volume in 1 hr. That ain’t retail!”

Binance BTC/USDT order-book activity. Source: Keith Alan/X

Whales, Alan added, were “buying dips and selling rips” with Bitcoin still trapped in a range.

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on further threats to Bitcoin bulls, including resurgent US dollar strength.