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Bitcoin price prediction: BTC at $68K

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Bitcoin leverage jumps as open interest spikes near $70k

The bitcoin price prediction latest crypto news Iran deadline today tells a familiar story: BTC briefly reclaimed $70,000 on Monday ceasefire hopes before retreating to the $68,000 range on Tuesday as Iran rejected the deal and Trump’s 8 PM ET deadline drew closer, with ETH, SOL, and XRP all posting losses of 2% to 4%.

Summary

  • Bitcoin touched $70,200 on Monday on ceasefire optimism, then pulled back to around $68,200 on Tuesday as Iran rejected the 45-day proposal and geopolitical risk overwhelmed bullish sentiment
  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $471 million in inflows on April 6, the sixth-largest single-day total of 2026 and the highest since late February, signaling sustained institutional demand even as price action weakened
  • Analysts say a confirmed deal tonight could push BTC toward $75,000, while a major escalation risks breaking the $66,500 support level and opening a path toward $60,000

The bitcoin (BTC) price prediction latest crypto news Iran deadline today is being driven entirely by geopolitics. Bitcoin pulled back to around $68,228 on Tuesday morning after Monday’s brief touch of $70,200, as Iran formally rejected the US-backed 45-day ceasefire proposal and Trump confirmed his 8 PM ET strike deadline remained in force. The crypto market cap fell roughly 2% to $2.42 trillion as traders positioned defensively heading into the evening.

Ethereum dropped 2.9% to $2,090. Solana fell 3.8% to $79.44. XRP slid 3.3% to $1.31. The pattern is the same one that has played out across six weeks of this conflict: a de-escalation headline sparks a rally, Iran rejects the terms, and the gains get erased within hours.

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The one data point bucking the bearish narrative is spot Bitcoin ETF flows. Monday’s $471 million in inflows marked the sixth-largest single-day total of 2026 and the highest since late February, according to Bloomberg. Binance Research found this month that Bitcoin’s correlation with its Global Easing Breadth Index, which tracks 41 central banks, turned strongly negative after the launch of spot ETFs, suggesting institutional investors are treating dips as accumulation opportunities regardless of short-term price moves.

As crypto.news reported, a confirmed agreement tonight could open the door to a move toward $75,000, as easing tensions would support risk appetite across financial markets. Failure to reach a deal points in the other direction, with $66,500 identified as the key support zone and, below that, a Glassnode-flagged negative gamma setup that leaves BTC exposed to a faster move toward $60,000.

The Two Scenarios Traders Are Pricing

“This move looks less like a shift in fundamentals and more like positioning getting caught offsides,” said Diana Pires, chief business officer at sFOX. “Heading into the weekend, sentiment was heavily skewed bearish and short interest had built up across the market. Once ceasefire headlines hit, that positioning had to unwind.”

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The six-week trading range of $65,000 to $73,000 that has defined Bitcoin during the Iran war remains intact. Breaking above it requires either a genuine ceasefire or a significant improvement in the macro backdrop — neither of which looks imminent at press time.

What the Fed Overlay Adds

Oil above $111 per barrel means inflation expectations remain elevated, which reduces the Federal Reserve’s room to cut rates. The market currently prices in little near-term Fed movement. Bitcoin, which performs best in easing liquidity environments, is caught between institutional accumulation demand and a macro backdrop that keeps capital defensive. That tension is precisely why BTC has held its war range rather than breaking either way.

As crypto.news noted, the Strait of Hormuz situation is the single most important variable. Tonight’s 8 PM ET deadline is the clearest binary event Bitcoin has faced in the six weeks since the war began.

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Crypto World

Coinbase CEO Backs US Treasury Secretary‘s Push to pass CLARITY Act

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Coinbase, Cryptocurrencies, Law, Politics, Congress

Brian Armstrong, the Coinbase CEO who withdrew the crypto exchange’s support for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act in January, said “it’s time” for the legislation to pass after months of delays.

In a Thursday X post, Armstrong said that Coinbase agreed with comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed, in which he urged Congress to act on the crypto bill soon. According to the CEO, the current version of the legislation, after months of negotiations between lawmakers and representatives from the crypto and banking industries, was a “strong bill.”

“It’s time to pass the Clarity Act,” said Armstrong.

Coinbase, Cryptocurrencies, Law, Politics, Congress
Source: Brian Armstrong

Armstrong’s endorsement of the bill came about three months after the CEO said that the company could not support the legislation “as written,” leading to lawmakers in the Senate Banking Committee postponing a markup on CLARITY necessary for its approval.

At the time, Armstrong said that he expected the bill to pass “in a few weeks,” but concerns over ethics, tokenized equities, stablecoin yield and other crypto-related issues have stalled progress since January.

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Related: Coinbase CEO denies White House clash, says negotiations are ongoing

The expected markup for the bill in the banking committee, not scheduled as of Friday, will follow approval from the Senate Agriculture Committee in January. Both committees need to address different aspects of securities and commodities regulations before a potential vote for the CLARITY Act in the full chamber.

Coinbase legal chief Paul Grewal said last week that lawmakers were “very close to a deal” on the bill.

Is the crypto industry’s influence growing in Washington?

Since before the inauguration of US President Donald Trump, many experts have questioned the influence of the crypto industry on elections, lawmakers’ decisions and White House policies.

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Executives at Coinbase and Ripple Labs have been parties to the discussions with administration officials on the CLARITY Act, and Armstrong reportedly met with the president before Trump posted a social media message calling for immediate action on crypto market structure.

The relationships may have benefited Coinbase and other companies seeking crypto-friendly laws and regulations under Trump. Last week, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency approved Coinbase’s application for a national bank trust charter, following December approvals for Paxos, Ripple Labs, BitGo, Circle and Fidelity Digital Assets.

Magazine: Should users be allowed to bet on war and death in prediction markets?

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