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Bitcoin price risks drop to $65k, weekly trend turns bearish

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Bitcoin price risks drop to $65,000 as weekly trend shifts bearish - 1

Bitcoin price is losing its weekly structure after a sharp rejection at channel resistance, raising the probability of a deeper corrective move toward $65,000 support.

Summary

  • Bitcoin was rejected at channel high resistance, triggering downside momentum.
  • The range midpoint has been lost on a weekly closing basis.
  • $65,000 channel low and the 200-week moving average are key downside targets.

The current Bitcoin (BTC) price is hovering at $83,000. It’s a critical phase as the higher-time-frame structure continues to weaken. After failing decisively at the upper boundary of a long-standing trading channel, the price has transitioned into an impulsive corrective move that is now reshaping the weekly outlook.

The loss of key levels has shifted momentum firmly in favor of sellers, increasing the probability that Bitcoin will rotate lower toward major structural support. With the weekly trend turning bearish, a downside continuation toward the channel low is becoming the more likely scenario.

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Bitcoin price key technical points

  • Channel high rejection confirmed: Price was rejected precisely at long-term resistance.
  • Range midpoint lost on a closing basis: Signals structural weakness.
  • $65,000 channel low in focus: Confluence with the 200-week moving average.

Bitcoin price risks drop to $65,000 as weekly trend shifts bearish - 1
BTCUSDT (4H) Chart, Source: TradingView

Bitcoin’s recent decline began with a clean rejection at the range high, also referred to as channel high resistance. This level has historically acted as a ceiling for price, and the most recent test was no exception. Sellers stepped in aggressively, triggering a sharp bearish expansion away from resistance.

The rejection was not shallow or indecisive. Instead, it produced strong downside momentum, suggesting that the rally into resistance was corrective rather than the start of a new bullish leg. This reaction set the tone for the current move lower.

Loss of range midpoint confirms weakness

Following the rejection, Bitcoin rotated toward the range midpoint, a level that often acts as a battleground between buyers and sellers. Importantly, this level has now been lost on a weekly closing basis, a development that significantly weakens the bullish case.

Closing below the midpoint shifts control back to sellers and opens the path for price to explore deeper parts of the range. From a market structure perspective, this loss confirms that the corrective move has more room to develop rather than resolving quickly.

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Weekly trend turns bearish

With price failing to reclaim key levels, the weekly trend has officially shifted bearish. Bitcoin is now printing consecutive lower highs and lower lows, a defining characteristic of a downtrend. As long as this structure remains intact, rallies are more likely to be corrective and sold into rather than sustained.

This structural shift increases the probability that the current move is not a short-lived pullback but part of a broader corrective phase within the larger channel.

$65,000 emerges as a downside magnet

The next major technical objective sits at the channel low near $65,000. This level represents long-term structural support and has repeatedly acted as a reaction zone throughout Bitcoin’s multi-year trading history. Given the current bearish momentum, the price is increasingly drawn toward this area.

Markets often gravitate toward such well-defined levels, particularly when intermediate support fails. In this context, $65,000 acts as a magnet for price, where liquidity, historical demand, and long-term positioning converge.

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200-week moving average adds confluence

Adding to the significance of the $65,000 region is the presence of the 200-week moving average, one of the most closely watched indicators in Bitcoin’s long-term trend analysis. Historically, retests of the 200-week average have often coincided with major cycle bottoms or extended consolidation phases.

While this does not guarantee an immediate reversal, it does suggest that a base-building process is likely once price reaches this zone. Such bases often take time to develop, involving volatility and sideways movement rather than a sharp V-shaped recovery.

Correction does not equal trend failure

It is important to distinguish between a deep correction and a complete breakdown of Bitcoin’s long-term thesis. Even within broader bullish cycles, Bitcoin has repeatedly experienced large drawdowns that reset structure and sentiment before the next expansion phase.

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From a higher-time-frame perspective, a move toward $65,000 would still fit within Bitcoin’s historical behavior, particularly given the extended period price has spent trading within this large structural channel.

What to Expect in the Coming Price Action

Bitcoin remains in a bearish corrective phase as long as price stays below the range midpoint and continues to print lower highs on the weekly timeframe. The probability favors continued downside rotation toward $65,000 channel low support, where the 200-week moving average may provide a stabilizing influence.

Until that region is reached and structure improves, rallies are likely to face selling pressure. The coming weeks will be defined by whether Bitcoin completes this corrective move and begins forming a long-term base, or whether bearish momentum accelerates further before support is established.

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Crypto World

South Korea Opposition Moves to Abolish Crypto Tax Amid $110B Capital Flight

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🇰🇷

South Korea is not just delaying its crypto tax anymore. It wants to kill it entirely.

The People Power Party has introduced a bill to strike digital asset taxation from the Income Tax Act completely, ahead of its rescheduled 2027 implementation. The opposition Democratic Party, which holds the legislative majority and previously only agreed to a delay, is now reviewing full abolition.

The reason is hard to ignore. $110 billion in capital flight. Traders moved funds offshore specifically to escape the planned 22% levy.

That number changed the political calculus fast.

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Key Takeaways
  • Policy Shift: The People Power Party introduced a bill to completely remove crypto from the Income Tax Act, aiming to scrap the tax rather than just delay it to 2027.
  • Capital Flight: An estimated $110 billion has exited South Korean exchanges for offshore platforms, driven by the threat of a 22% tax on gains over $1,800.
  • Investor Impact: The move aims to level the playing field for retail ‘Ant’ investors, aligning crypto incentives with the local stock market’s much higher tax-free threshold.

The Mechanics of the Korea Crypto Abolition Bill Explained

The disparity driving this debate is stark.

Under the planned law, South Korean crypto traders would pay a 22% tax on gains above just 2.5 million won. That is roughly $1,781. Meanwhile the domestic stock market protects investors with a deduction threshold of 50 million won, around $35,600.

The PPP is calling it exactly what it is. Discriminatory treatment of 6 million crypto traders.

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The abolition bill goes further than the two-year moratorium agreed in December. It seeks to remove virtual assets from the taxation schedule entirely. The trigger is the $110 billion in capital that has already fled to overseas exchanges where Korean jurisdiction barely reaches.

Lawmakers are not acting on principle. They are reacting to data showing the domestic ecosystem is bleeding out.

The global context is accelerating the urgency. The US is signaling a pro-crypto regulatory stance and Korean lawmakers are watching closely. A hostile tax policy while competitors roll out the welcome mat could permanently handicap South Korea’s digital economy.

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The capital flight already happened. The question now is whether abolition can bring it back.

What This Means for the ‘Ants’ and the Kimchi Premium

For South Korea’s retail traders, known locally as Ants, this is the signal to bring capital home.

The Democratic Party has historically pushed back hard on crypto. But $110 billion in capital flight is a number that forces pragmatism over ideology. If the tax gets scrapped, the incentive to route funds through offshore platforms or private wallets disappears overnight.

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The kimchi premium is the market signal to watch. Historically that price gap between Korean exchanges and global markets spiked due to capital controls and regulatory evasion.

A tax-free environment on regulated platforms like Upbit and Bithumb would normalize volumes and turn the premium into a genuine sentiment indicator rather than a workaround tax.

The path to abolition is not guaranteed. The PPP introduced the bill but the Democratic Party holds the National Assembly majority. They agreed to a delay. A permanent scrapping of the tax still needs a formal vote. The 2027 implementation date remains on the books until that happens.

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There is also a sunk cost problem. The National Tax Service already spent roughly 3 billion won building an AI-powered transaction tracking system specifically designed for crypto enforcement. Abolition renders that investment effectively obsolete for income tax purposes.

The legislative clock is running. Until the amendment clears the plenary session, the 2027 tax date is still legally active.

Seoul either stays a crypto hub or keeps donating capital to offshore jurisdictions. The Ants are watching the assembly floor. The vote decides it.

Discover: The best new crypto in the world

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Rally to $76K Shows Strength but Lacks Confirmation

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis

Bitcoin’s (BTC) rally to $76,000 revived market optimism for investors, but onchain data suggested that the move may still be part of an early-stage recovery defined by frequent periods of price volatility.

According to Glassnode, BTC price has entered a relatively “open” zone between $72,000 and $82,000, where there’s less resistance.

This range is particularly defined by the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), which highlights where the investors accumulated their coins. This means BTC may move more freely in the short term within this range, if the momentum holds.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin UTXO URPD range. Source: Glassnode

Glassnode explained that a more reliable signal lies in whether the broader market is returning to profitability. The share of Bitcoin supply in profit has climbed back to around 60%, which is a level often seen during the early stages of a recovery. Glassnode added, 

“A sustained push above 75% would carry considerably more weight as a confirmation of early bull market conditions, whereas continued rejection near current levels would reinforce the bear market recovery narrative.”

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin supply profitability scale. Source: Glassnode

Another key factor is how the market handles the current sell pressure. As Bitcoin climbed above $74,000, the short-term holders began realizing profits at an accelerated pace, with realized gains reaching $18.4 million per hour. 

This mirrors behavior seen in earlier failed rallies, where investors sold into strength, capping the upside momentum. If Bitcoin can absorb this wave of profit-taking and maintain support above $70,000, it increases the chance for a rally into the $78,000 to $82,000 range.

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Related: Bitcoin tests old 2021 top as gold falls to six-week lows under $4.7K

Trend indicator remains in “bear” market territory

From a technical standpoint, the broader trend structure still leans toward caution. On the higher time frames (daily and weekly charts), Bitcoin continues to trade within a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, indicating that a bullish market structure has not been established. 

For a bullish shift, BTC needs to break above its previous lower high near $97,855 and sustain the price action above that level.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
BTC/USDT on the weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

This region also aligns with the Fibonacci “golden zone” between the 0.5 and 0.618 retracement levels, an area tracked by traders as a key decision point during trend reversals. 

A clean breakout above this range, followed by consolidation, will suggest a strong demand and increase the likelihood of a long-term rally.

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CryptoQuant’s cycle indicator echoes this cautious outlook. The Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle indicator remains in bearish territory, improving to -0.72 from -1 earlier this month but still far from confirming a trend reversal. 

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
CryptoQuant Bitcoin bull-bear market indicator. Source: CryptoQuant

For a full bull market confirmation, the indicator needs to move above 1, reflecting sustained positive momentum.

An early signal to watch is a move above the bull-bear 365-day moving average, currently at -0.23. This level acts as a long-term trend filter, smoothing out short-term volatility and highlighting whether the market conditions are shifting to bullish or bearish on the higher time frame. 

Related: Bitcoin ETF inflow streak snaps with $164M outflows amid BTC dip