Stablecoins processed $33t in 2025, topping Visa and Mastercard, and could clear over $50t by 2026 as corporates, banks and AI agents turn on‑chain dollars into core payment rails.

Stablecoins processed $33 trillion of on-chain transaction volume in 2025, surpassing the combined $25.5 trillion handled by Visa and Mastercard and signaling that tokenized dollars have quietly outgrown legacy card rails, according to a new “State of Stablecoins” report from Ethereum layer-2 network Morph. Morph’s analysts argue the asset class has moved beyond its speculative origins to become a core settlement layer for global finance, with volumes now comparable to the world’s largest payment networks despite a total market capitalization in the low hundreds of billions.

Crucially, roughly 60% of stablecoin flows are now business-to-business, as corporates lean on dollar tokens for cross-border treasury management, supplier payments, and procurement. “Enterprise adoption is no longer a thesis; it is visible in the data,” the Morph team wrote, highlighting rising average transaction sizes and the growing role of stablecoins in institutional liquidity and settlement workflows. The report notes that in several recent months, stablecoin volumes exceeded $1.5 trillion, rivaling or surpassing the monthly throughput of major card schemes.

Looking ahead, Morph projects annual stablecoin settlement volumes could exceed $50 trillion as early as 2026, cementing their role as a parallel payment stack alongside banks, card networks, and systems like SWIFT. By 2030, the report forecasts stablecoins could account for around 10% of global cross-border payments, helped by lower fees, instant settlement, and regulatory clarity in key markets under frameworks such as the EU’s MiCA and new US stablecoin laws.

Morph also bets that AI agents will become primary initiators of stablecoin transactions, automating everything from just-in-time inventory payments to machine-to-machine settlement. Under that scenario, the team estimates stablecoins could support a $1.9 trillion market by 2030, with autonomous systems triggering high-frequency, low-latency payments across global supply chains. In a previous crypto.news story, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said stablecoins processed more than $33 trillion in volume last year and could become crypto’s “ChatGPT moment” for businesses, underscoring how quickly on-chain dollars are converging with mainstream finance.

That same story pointed to forecasts from Bloomberg Intelligence that stablecoin flows could reach $56.6 trillion by 2030, while another crypto.news story on institutional adoption reported that 90% of surveyed financial institutions now use stablecoins in some form, from settlement to collateral management. A separate story on cross-border payments detailed how incumbents such as SWIFT are testing blockchain and digital-asset rails, suggesting that by the time stablecoins hit a 10% share of global cross-border volume, the line between “crypto” and conventional payments may be largely irrelevant to end users.

Ethereum’s on-chain stablecoin activity surged to a record level, with the combined value of stablecoins on the network reaching $180 billion, according to blockchain analytics firm Token Terminal. The figure positions Ethereum as the dominant home for stablecoins, representing roughly 60% of the global stablecoin supply and marking a 150% increase over the past three years. The data underscores how on-chain liquidity has become a central driver of the broader crypto rally, anchored by growing interest in tokenized assets and institutional participation.

Token Terminal’s assessment also points to a longer horizon: about $1.7 trillion of on-chain activity is projected to move across networks over the next four years, with Ethereum potentially capturing as much as $850 billion in “new flows” by 2030 if growth accelerates to approximately 470%. The implications for market structure are tangible, as more liquidity on Ethereum could translate into deeper markets for tokenized real-world assets and stablecoins alike. In a related projection, Standard Chartered estimated that more than $1 trillion could leave traditional banks and flow into stablecoins by 2028, signaling a potential regulatory- and liquidity-driven reshaping of the fiat-to-crypto corridor.

Beyond the numbers, Ethereum’s position as the preferred chain for stablecoins and RWAs is being reinforced by a wave of institutional activity. The network has already attracted high-profile players such as BlackRock, JPMorgan, and Amundi, all launching tokenized funds or related products on Ethereum as stablecoin supply across all networks reached a record $315 billion in the first quarter. That ecosystem-building activity coincides with the market’s broader shift toward on-chain liquidity as a trigger for price discovery and risk transfer in crypto markets.

Momentum on-chain: a broader market signal

A complementary view from RWA.xyz, which tracks on-chain real-world-asset activity, puts Ethereum’s on-chain stablecoin value at a slightly lower but still dominant $168 billion. The firm estimates Ethereum accounts for about 56% of the stablecoin market, a share that rises to over 65% when including Ethereum Virtual Machine-compatible networks and layer-2 ecosystems such as Arbitrum, ZKSync Era, and Base. The leadership position highlights Ethereum’s growing role as a liquidity hub for tokenized assets, not merely a means of payment or settlement.

“This momentum supports a sustained long-term bull cycle driven by tokenized assets and institutional adoption,” said Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, speaking with Cointelegraph this week. He cautioned that while the trend is bullish, competition from rival chains, evolving regulatory frameworks, and macro volatility remain meaningful constraints to upside. The ecosystem’s resilience will depend on how quickly developers can advance scalable, interoperable tokenization use cases and how policymakers balance innovation with consumer protections.

Institutions moving tokens on Ethereum: what’s driving the shift

In a signaling move for traditional finance, JPMorgan Chase’s leadership acknowledged the emergence of a “new set of competitors” built on blockchain, stablecoins, smart contracts, and other forms of tokenization in their annual shareholder letter. The bank has also pushed concrete progress, having launched its first tokenized money market fund (MONY) on Ethereum in December. The move marks a milestone for institutional-grade tokenized products and aligns with a broader trend of asset managers and banks embracing on-chain infrastructure to improve capital efficiency and access for clients.

Industry observers see parallel currents at play. The accumulation of stablecoin liquidity on Ethereum is viewed as a natural fit for tokenized fund structures, collateral arrangements, and cross-border settlement networks that aim to reduce settlement latency and reliance on traditional rails. Amundi’s foray into a tokenized euro money market fund on Ethereum, together with BlackRock’s and JPMorgan’s tokenized offerings, signals a growing appetite among major asset managers to experiment with on-chain markets. The net effect, according to market participants, is a more diversified and resilient on-chain liquidity toolkit for investors and institutions alike.

What this development means for investors and the market

For traders and builders, the sustained growth in on-chain stablecoins and tokenized assets on Ethereum suggests several practical implications. First, higher on-chain liquidity can improve price discovery, reduce slippage on large trades, and support more robust yield opportunities in tokenized products. Second, the expanding footprint of tokenized RWAs signals a potential bridge between traditional financial assets and decentralized markets, potentially widening access to new capital pools and diversification strategies. Third, the increasing involvement of incumbents such as JPMorgan and Amundi could bolster institutional credibility and resilience in on-chain markets, while inviting greater regulatory scrutiny and standardization efforts.

However, the trajectory is not without uncertainties. Cross-network competition—especially from non-EVM chains with distinct technical advantages—remains a factor to monitor. Regulatory developments, including potential guidance on stablecoins and tokenized financial instruments, could alter the speed and direction of capital flows. Macro conditions and risk appetite will continue to shape how quickly institutions embrace tokenization at scale. In sum, the current momentum appears to be building a more mature on-chain ecosystem, but the path forward will hinge on clarity, interoperability, and the ability to deliver scalable, user-friendly experiences for mainstream participants.

What to watch next

Observers will be watching several developing threads: the durability of Ethereum’s dominance as on-chain liquidity grows across layer-2s, the pace of institutional product launches on Ethereum, and how regulators respond to a maturing ecosystem of stablecoins and tokenized assets. If Token Terminal’s and RWA.xyz’s data points hold, Ethereum’s share of on-chain stablecoins could remain a leading indicator of overall market health, even as competition from other networks and macro headwinds test the sector’s resilience.

As capital continues to migrate onto the chain, investors should stay alert to policy developments, evolving cross-chain interoperability solutions, and the practical adoption of tokenized funds and RWAs. The next several quarters will likely reveal whether the current surge in on-chain liquidity translates into sustained demand, enhanced market efficiency, and clearer pathways for mainstream participation in crypto markets.

A Financial Times report this week outlined a provocative idea from Iran’s trade sector: charge ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz a tariff paid in Bitcoin. The plan would let empty oil tankers pass without charges, but other vessels would owe a levy of $1 per barrel, settled in BTC, over a two-week window and after an on-waterway assessment to verify the cargo isn’t weapons-related, according to Hamid Hosseini, spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union.

The story arrives as geopolitical tensions flare and markets react. On X (Truth Social), former U.S. President Donald Trump asserted that a two-week ceasefire with Iran would include the “complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz,” a claim that Iran’s state media later echoed by reporting a 10-point plan delivered to Washington as a precondition for any deal, including the continued control of the waterway and sanctions relief. The exact terms of any accord remain fluid, but the FT report highlights how crypto-enabled mechanisms could become part of broader political and economic signaling in a high-stakes standoff.

Geopolitical friction has already disrupted regional shipping and energy flows. After intensified U.S.–Israel–led strikes against Iranian targets in February and March, the Strait of Hormuz has seen shipments constrained and tensions rise, contributing to a rally in crude oil that briefly pushed prices above $100 per barrel. In crypto markets, Bitcoin likewise moved during the period of heightened volatility, trading in a wide range as traders priced in the risk backdrop.

Beyond current events, the narrative builds on prior evidence that Iran has leaned on crypto rails to navigate sanctions and currency pressures. Elliptic reported in January that Iran’s central bank had acquired roughly half a billion dollars’ worth of Tether USDt, a signal of the rial’s volatility driving demand for dollar-pegged stablecoins. Separately, TRM Labs has tracked large-scale crypto flows linked to Iran, estimating about $3.7 billion in total crypto activity from January through July 2025, a figure cited in coverage surrounding Iran’s evolving crypto footprint. For more context, see the reporting that referenced TRM Labs, and the Elliptic analysis linked to Iran’s stablecoin acquisitions.

Key takeaways

• Iran reportedly weighs a Bitcoin-based tariff for Strait of Hormuz transit, charging $1 per barrel for non-empty cargo while allowing empty tankers to pass without charges.
• Payments would be prompted within a two-week window, with vessels assessed individually to confirm cargo legitimacy and weapon-free status, per the union spokesperson cited by the Financial Times.
• The proposal comes amid ongoing geopolitical flare-ups and energy-market volatility, set against a backdrop of broader sanctions dynamics and potential relief talks.
• Longer-term context shows Iran’s crypto activity as part of sanctions navigation: Elliptic notes substantial USDT holdings, and TRM Labs records substantial inflows and flows related to Iranian crypto use (Jan–Jul 2025).
• Readers should watch how policymakers, shipping operators, and crypto market participants respond to the FT report and any subsequent official statements or regulatory clarifications.

Hormuz toll: a crypto twist on maritime economics

The Financial Times’ account centers on a regulatory pivot that would blend transport pricing with digital asset settlements. If implemented, the BTC-based toll model would apply a simple per-barrel tariff to shipments crossing the Hormuz route, aiming to consolidate revenue amid sanctions pressures and to test the practicality of crypto-as-fee mechanics in critical chokepoints. The proposal specifies that the tariff would be collected in Bitcoin, with the logistics package requiring ships to settle payments quickly—“a few seconds”—to minimize traceability and potential sanction enforcement risk, according to Hosseini’s description of the process observed by the union.

The plan’s two-week horizon aligns with a provisional, high-visibility window rather than a long-term price signal. Even as it surfaces as a potential policy experiment, the reporting underscores how crypto rails could be positioned as geopolitical tools—whether for financing logistics, signaling political intent, or pressuring opponents through new payment frictions. The FT piece stops short of confirming that such a policy will be adopted, but it illustrates the kinds of mechanisms policymakers are weighing in an era of sanctions and blockade-era finance.

Geopolitics and markets: energy, sanctions, and crypto co-movement

Market dynamics over the past several months have shown that energy disruptions and crypto volatility can move in tandem, albeit imperfectly. The period of heightened tension around Hormuz coincided with a spike in oil prices and a broad oscillation in Bitcoin’s price, reflecting traders’ attempts to navigate the intersection of real-world risk and on-chain liquidity. The possibility of crypto-enabled tolls adds a new dimension: it could introduce a measurable crypto flow that tracks shipping activity in a region that shapes global oil pricing and geopolitical risk appetites.

The Trump assertion about a potential ceasefire and Hormuz opening, though unconfirmed and contested in official channels, amplifies the sense that the Iran-US standoff remains a live, strategic story with tangible financial undercurrents. If a BTC-payment framework for Hormuz passes from concept to policy, it could become a focal point for how Western sanctions policy, shipping finance, and crypto settlements intersect in real-world commerce. Observers will be watching not only for official confirmations but also for how such a mechanism would be audited, taxed, and regulated across different jurisdictions.

Iran’s crypto footprint: sanctions, stability, and opacity

The broader crypto-adoption narrative in Iran isn’t new, but recent data points underscore its relevance to policy and markets. Elliptic’s analysis in early 2025 highlighted Iran’s sizable holdings of USDt, pointing to a deliberate use of stablecoins to stabilize liquidity amid currency pressures. Meanwhile, TRM Labs documented substantial Iranian crypto activity totaling several billions of dollars over the first half of the year, illustrating the scale at which digital assets flowed through or around conventional financial channels. These patterns don’t guarantee a specific policy outcome in Hormuz, but they do suggest that crypto channels are considered—from a fiscal and strategic standpoint—by actors navigating sanctions, currency depreciation, and access to global markets.

For investors, traders, and builders, the episode reinforces a few practical takeaways. First, crypto-based payments and settlement methods can enter political calculations in ways that affect cross-border logistics and risk premia. Second, the on-chain footprint of sanctioned economies remains an area of close scrutiny for analysts and enforcement agencies, with real implications for compliance, monitoring technology, and liquidity flows. Finally, the linkage between energy markets and crypto markets—with prices, volatility, and liquidity all in play—continues to shape risk management and hedging considerations for market participants.

As the situation unfolds, readers should watch for clearer official statements about any Hormuz-related policy and for data from shipping groups and energy markets that could either validate or debunk the feasibility of a BTC settlement regime. The evolving narrative also invites questions about international law, the enforceability of crypto-based tariffs, and how such experiments would interact with existing sanctions regimes and financial sanctions regimes across multiple jurisdictions.

The broader takeaway is that crypto assets are increasingly embedded in geopolitics, not just as speculative instruments but as functional components of policy signaling, logistics, and revenue streams. What comes next will likely hinge on how quickly authorities weigh in, how ship operators adapt to new payment rails, and whether any pilot evolves into a enforceable policy on Hormuz traffic.

Iran will charge tankers $1 per barrel in bitcoin to cross the Strait of Hormuz during a two‑week US ceasefire, adding a crypto tax to the world’s key oil chokepoint.

Iran will force every oil tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the new two-week ceasefire with the US to pay a $1-per-barrel toll in cryptocurrency, turning the world’s most sensitive oil chokepoint into a de facto bitcoin paywall. According to the Financial Times, Tehran will demand that shipping companies settle the fee in digital assets, primarily bitcoin, as it seeks hard-to-trace revenues while sanctions bite. Hamid Hosseini, spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union, said the system is designed to slow traffic on Iran’s terms and tighten control over what moves through the corridor.

Under the scheme, tankers must first email Iranian authorities with detailed cargo manifests before entering the strait. Hosseini told the Financial Times that once the email is received and Tehran completes its assessment, “vessels are given a few seconds to pay in bitcoin, ensuring they can’t be traced or confiscated due to sanctions.” He added that “everything can pass through, but the procedure will take time for each vessel, and Iran is not in a rush,” underscoring that the stated aim is to prevent weapons shipments during the pause in fighting. With typical crude cargoes ranging from 500,000 to 2 million barrels, a single transit could mean crypto payments of $500,000 to $2,000,000 per voyage.

Ceasefire, crypto and a global oil lifeline

The toll comes as Washington and Tehran test a fragile truce that hinges on a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which before the war carried roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran could reopen the strait “limited, under Iran’s control” as early as Thursday or Friday, ahead of talks with US officials in Pakistan. Oil markets have already reacted: Brent futures slid about 13% to roughly $94.76 per barrel and US benchmark WTI dropped more than 15% to around $95.79 after President Donald Trump agreed to the two-week ceasefire, conditional on the “immediate and safe” reopening of the strait.

In Washington, Trump has floated turning the tolls themselves into a joint business model. “We’re thinking of doing it as a joint venture,” he told ABC News’s Jonathan Karl, calling it “a way of securing it — also securing it from lots of other people. It’s a beautiful thing.” That suggestion follows earlier musings that the US could impose its own tolling regime on ships using the strait, effectively monetizing a corridor where even a $1-per-barrel surcharge is a small fraction of crude trading in the mid-$90s but represents a new geopolitical tax on a market still reeling from weeks of war-driven price spikes.

Standard Chartered is reportedly weighing a restructuring of its majority-owned crypto custodian Zodia Custody, as large banks look to bring more digital asset infrastructure inside their core banking operations.

The United Kingdom-based lender plans to fold Zodia’s crypto custody business into a division inside its corporate and investment bank that already offers similar services, while keeping Zodia operating as a standalone Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) platform for digital asset custody, according to Bloomberg on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter. An announcement on the restructuring could reportedly come as soon as this month.

It is not yet clear whether Standard Chartered has opened negotiations with Zodia’s minority shareholders, which include Northern Trust, Emirates NBD, National Australia Bank and SBI Holdings.

Standard Chartered has rapidly expanded its own digital asset footprint, reportedly exploring the launch of a crypto prime brokerage platform through its venture arm, SC Ventures, and rolling out institutional crypto trading in summer 2025.

Related: Standard Chartered says faster stablecoin turnover could curb demand

The bank was an early mover into digital assets, setting up Zodia in 2020 with Northern Trust, and the custodian has since raised external capital and grown across seven offices in Europe, Asia and the Middle East.

Cointelegraph reached out to Standard Chartered and Zodia, but had not received a response by publication.

How other big banks are internalizing crypto custody

Standard Chartered’s reported rethink comes as other global banks take digital asset custody directly under regulated banking entities. In February, Morgan Stanley applied for a US de novo national trust bank charter, which would allow it to custody certain digital assets and execute purchases, sales, swaps, transfers and staking services for clients within a bank-regulated framework.

In October 2022, BNY Mellon launched a Digital Asset Custody platform in the US that lets selected clients hold and transfer Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) alongside traditional assets on a single platform, positioning the bank as a core provider of both conventional and tokenized asset servicing.

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