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Bitcoin shows record weekly oversold as selling pressure eases

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Microsoft stock plunges 11% as Bitcoin traders seek refuge amid broader tech selloff

Bitcoin has hit its most extreme weekly oversold level on record as selling slows.

Summary

  • Research firm K33 says bitcoin is in its deepest weekly oversold zone ever.
  • The move follows months of selling from long-term holders and institutions, though that pressure is now easing.
  • Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed $71,000 with roughly 7% daily gains as derivatives metrics show cautious but stabilizing positioning.

Bitcoin (BTC) has entered the most extreme weekly oversold zone in its history, according to a new report from research firm K33, even as early signs suggest that sustained sell pressure from long-term holders and institutions is finally starting to ease.

The firm notes that over the past several months, systematic selling from older wallets and ETF-related flows pushed prices lower and kept sentiment muted, despite ongoing interest in spot products. Now, with bitcoin back above $70,000 and net outflows slowing, K33 argues that the market is moving into a phase where forced or programmatic selling is less dominant, allowing spot demand to have a clearer impact on price. At the same time, derivatives indicators point to a market that is still cautious rather than euphoric, with traders paying for downside protection even as spot rebounds.

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K33’s oversold signal is rooted in longer-term momentum and breadth metrics, rather than short-term intraday swings, highlighting how extended the prior drawdown had become relative to previous cycles. The report emphasizes that similar readings in past years often preceded medium-term recovery phases, though the timing and strength of those rebounds varied depending on macro conditions and liquidity. In this cycle, the backdrop includes U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs that continue to attract steady, if uneven, inflows, as well as growing interest from corporates and fintech platforms like Coinbase that are integrating digital assets more deeply into their product stacks. For now, the firm characterizes bitcoin’s current state as one of “exhausted sellers” rather than a fully confirmed trend reversal.

Derivatives still signal caution

Despite the oversold reading and price recovery, K33 stresses that derivatives markets are not yet signaling a return to aggressive risk-on behavior. Funding rates on major perpetual futures have normalized from previous extremes and sit near neutral, suggesting that leveraged longs are no longer crowding in at any price, but are also not completely absent. Open interest has climbed from local lows in a more measured fashion, indicating that new positions are being added without the kind of unchecked leverage build-up that often precedes sharp liquidations. Options markets, meanwhile, show persistent demand for puts and elevated implied volatility around key macro and policy dates, reflecting ongoing concern about downside scenarios.

For traders and asset managers, the combination of record weekly oversold conditions and still-cautious derivatives positioning creates an environment where upside follow-through is possible, but not guaranteed. Short-covering rallies can be powerful in this type of setup if spot demand continues and ETF flows stay positive, yet any renewed wave of macro stress or regulatory headlines could quickly reignite selling. Institutional desks focused on structured products and basis trades may see opportunities to re-enter yield strategies as spreads normalize, while long-only investors weigh whether current levels offer an attractive entry point in light of K33’s historical analogs. The key test in the coming weeks will be whether bitcoin can hold above reclaimed support zones while leverage remains contained, confirming that the market has transitioned from forced selling into a more sustainable, accumulation-driven phase.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Rebounds 4% on Iran Ceasefire Hopes but Faces $72K Resistance

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Bitcoin Rebounds 4% on Iran Ceasefire Hopes but Faces $72K Resistance

Bitcoin (BTC) rose back above $71,000 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday after Trump’s administration offered a 15-point plan to Iran to end the war, sparking short-term optimism across risk assets.

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin bounces 4% to $71,500 after President Trump sent Iran a 15-point proposal aimed at ending the war. 

  • Bitcoin faces stiff resistance above $72,000. 

Bitcoin jumps 4% on ceasefire hopes

Data from TradingView showed BTC price rose as much as 4% to an intraday high of $71,300 from Tuesday’s low of $68,890, recouping all the losses incurred the day prior.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The price reacted to news that the US, through the primary intermediary Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir (Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff), has sent Iran a 15-point plan aimed at ending the war.

The key elements of the plan include: a temporary ceasefire with calls on Iran to dismantle or severely limit its nuclear program, suspend its ballistic-missile work, and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for safe maritime traffic.

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Source: X/The Kobeissi Letter

Meanwhile, Iran continues to deny any ongoing talks as ​​Trump delayed his self-imposed deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Following the news, WTI crude oil dropped 5.75% to $87 per barrel, while Brent crude shed 6% to trade at $98.

Oil prices table. Source: Oil Price.com

Gold extended yesterday’s gains, now up 2.53% on the day to trade at $4,561 at the time of writing.

This move eases inflation fears tied to disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, positively impacting risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Analysts noted the swift repricing, with Coinlore saying that Bitcoin is now acting as a “real-time sentiment instrument for global risk.”

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr said that BTC will “likely remain headline-driven” until the US and Iran send a “public de-escalation signal.”

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Bitcoin price faces “rough times ahead”

Despite the rebound, BTC’s upside appears to be capped at $72,000, where the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the upper trend line of a symmetrical triangle converge.

A break above $72,000 would confirm a bullish breakout from the triangle, toward the measured target at $92,400, 30% above the current price.

BTC/USD daily chart. Cointelegraph/TradingView

Glassnode’s cost-basis distribution heatmap reveals concentrated supply and resistance between $72,000 and $74,000, where investors acquired roughly 380,000 BTC over the last 30 days. This indicates that sellers could aggressively defend this zone.

Bitcoin cost basis distribution heatmap. Source: Glassnode

On the downside, a dense accumulation cluster sits around $65,000, where investors previously acquired 160,000 BTC. 

This level coincides with the lower trend line of the symmetrical triangle, which, if lost, could trigger the next leg lower toward the bearish target of the triangle at $52,500.

Meanwhile, Capriole Investment’s Bitcoin Macro index has dropped to -1.37, levels seen at the depth of previous bear cycles.

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The chart below shows that the metric historically spends a year at or below these valuations before recovering.

“Bitcoin Macro index is in the value zone,” Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards said in an X post on Wednesday, adding:

“In all prior instances, price went lower into deeper value first before recovering, suggesting we may have more rough times ahead first.”

Bitcoin Macro Index. Source: Capriole Investments

As Cointelegraph reported, traders warn of a second bear flag breakdown that could clear the path for another sell-off below $50,000.