Bitcoin Slides Under $78K as US PCE Inflation Lifts Risk-Off Trade

Bitcoin slipped below $78,000 shortly after the Wall Street open as US inflation data landed higher than expected, pushing risk assets lower and weighing on crypto sentiment. The move followed a stronger-than-forecast July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) print—an inflation measure the Federal Reserve closely tracks—setting up a busy stretch for traders with additional catalysts later in the week.

With markets now parsing what the latest inflation signal could mean for the policy outlook, attention is also turning to Nvidia’s upcoming earnings release, widely viewed as a near-term driver of broader market volatility. Meanwhile, technical analysts are warning that recent strength may still fall short of a durable trend change.

Key takeaways

• July US PCE inflation came in above expectations, with the year-on-year rate at 3.7% versus 3.6% expected.
• BTC’s decline accelerated after the Wall Street open, aligning with weaker moves in US equities and gold breaking below $4,600 per ounce.
• Analysts are watching the August monthly close for confirmation or rejection of ongoing technical resistance themes.
• Traders are also looking ahead to Nvidia’s Q2 earnings as a potential volatility catalyst for risk assets.

July PCE surprises higher and pressures risk appetite

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ official release, the July PCE price index increased 0.2% from the previous month, and the same 0.2% gain was reported for the core measure excluding food and energy. On the year, the headline PCE rate rose to 3.7%, edging above the 3.6% forecast.

TradingView data tracked intraday weakness of up to roughly 1% for BTC on the day as US markets opened lower. The same risk-off dynamic also showed up beyond crypto: the article notes US stocks were down at the open and gold dipped through $4,600 per ounce.

For investors, the key point is not only whether inflation is moving, but whether it is moderating quickly enough to influence expectations around monetary policy. The report highlights that markets had been reacting to June’s PCE slowdown—described as the first month-on-month decline in six years—so the July print reduced confidence that progress was continuing at the desired pace.

Commenting on the broader implication, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter said on X that US inflation remains “nearly double” the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target, reinforcing the idea that the latest data did not offer immediate reassurance for rate-cut hopes.

Fed week ahead: inflation data before major policy messaging

The PCE release landed with the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole economic symposium approaching. The article notes that Fed chair Kevin Warsh is expected to deliver the keynote speech on Friday, which places a premium on how markets interpret the inflation trajectory into that event.

In practical terms, this means traders are likely to treat today’s data as an input into the policy narrative rather than a one-off market mover. If inflation readings stay stubborn, markets may scale back expectations for easing; if they ease further, pressure on risk assets could fade. Either way, the upcoming Fed communications increase the probability that volatility could rise again even if crypto’s move already reflects the immediate reaction.

Tech earnings on deck as Nvidia could set the tone

Beyond macro data, the article points to corporate earnings as the next plausible short-term driver for market behavior. It highlights Nvidia’s upcoming Q2 earnings release as a potential catalyst for risk-asset volatility.

While the piece does not claim new results, it cites expectations including quarterly revenue of $92.3 billion and notes that analysts at Raymond James forecast CPU revenue at Nvidia could grow from 3% to 5% of total by 2028, broadening its addressable market.

For crypto investors, Nvidia matters less for fundamentals inside the blockchain sector and more for how large-cap tech performance influences overall liquidity and risk appetite. If earnings are perceived as supportive, BTC could find follow-through buyers; if they disappoint, the broader de-risking impulse may continue to spill into digital assets.

BTC technical outlook: focus shifts to the August monthly close

After the pullback, market participants are increasingly turning to higher-timeframe technical levels rather than reacting to day-to-day candles. The article emphasizes an upcoming August monthly candle close as a key point for determining whether BTC can extend a rebound or whether it remains trapped within a broader downtrend structure.

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital warned that BTC/USD could continue forming “lower highs,” referencing a sequence that has been in place since October 2025. In an X post, he said that “a Monthly Close below the blue resistance” would not only confirm another “Macro Lower High,” but also build “confluent resistance” tied to a broader macro downtrend.

Rekt Capital also directed attention to the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) near $77,251. The article notes that Bitcoin’s last monthly close above this level occurred in October 2025. In his view, maintaining a reclaim and hold around that trend metric would be necessary for the rebound to stop being categorized as merely a temporary “relief rally” within a larger bear market.

Notably, this framing sets up a clear debate for traders: whether recent upside is transitioning into a durable reversal, or whether the market is still only bouncing within a corrective regime. Because monthly closes carry more weight than intraday price action, this creates a well-defined checkpoint for bulls and bears alike.

The near-term downside pressure from macro data may not automatically invalidate technical bullish cases, but it increases the odds that resistance levels will be tested more aggressively before the month ends. In other words, the market is now balancing two competing forces—macro-driven risk sentiment and chart-driven trend confirmation.

Heading into the next sessions, traders should watch how BTC responds once the immediate PCE-driven reaction cools, whether Nvidia’s earnings shift broader risk appetite, and—most importantly—where Bitcoin’s price settles relative to the resistance and the 50-week EMA ahead of the August monthly close.